sveumrules

There are a couple different methods out there for attempting to capture the ever elusive "clutch-ness" of a player. One is just straight Win Probability Added, where Isaac came in at +0.97 WPA good enough for fifth on the team behind Contreras (+2.34), Turang (+1.14), Durbin (+1.10), and Chourio (+1.02). Vaughn (+0.92) was just behind Collins before a small drop off to Yelich (+0.65), Frelick (+0.51), Hoskins (+0.41), and Bauers (+0.23) rounding out the Top Ten. FanGraphs also has a measure on that same linked leaderboard they label Clutch, which more or less compares how a player performs in high leverage situations versus low and medium leverage situations. For this stat the baseline is not zeroed out to the league as a whole, but rather to each individual player's own performance. For instance, Joey Ortiz was turrrible this year at the plate (67 wRC+) so he came out at -1.03 WPA. But his high leverage plate appearances (101 wRC+), were much better than his low leverage (54 wRC+) and medium leverage (77 wRC+) ones so his 0.62 Clutch was second on the team behind only Contreras with a 0.81 Clutch. By that measure Collins came in at 0.27 Clutch grouped together in a range from fourth to eighth on the team with Mitchell (0.33), Hoskins (0.31), Vaughn (0.25), and Chourio (0.20). Collins did really well in high leverage PA with a 142 wRC+ that was only behind Chourio (156 wRC+) among Brewers with regular PA, but Isaac also did decent in low leverage (118 wRC+) and medium leverage (122 wRC+) so that hurts his Clutch score somewhat by that methodology.

Nathan Fielder’s shows are singular experiences unto themselves. Rehearsal S2 was the pinnacle for me, but The Curse and Rehearsal S1 are well worth it too.

Right, the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets teams were all assembled under the previous CBA that was less punitive to tax paying teams. Celtics run was kicked off by trading Pierce/Garnett to Brooklyn for the picks that turned into Tatum/Brown. They’re the closest of that trio to doing it the way OKC has. Bucks and Nuggets were essentially treadmill franchises that lucked into Superstars then were doubly lucky to actually get a Championship out of it.

Not sure how much certainty we really have about how exactly Brewers Accounting goes toward allocating those buyout numbers. Like the Hoskins $4M buyout is set to be paid on 2/1/26. I'd think that counts toward the 2025 payroll since it precedes the start of the 2026 season. Woody's $10M buyout is paid in two $5M installments on 1/15/26 and 7/15/26. To me that reads as splitting it up into $5M each on the 2025 (first payment before season) and 2026 (second payment during season) payrolls.

With the #4 players complete, we are now half way done. Also thinking I'll group all the players from #11 through the end of each team's roster together in the final update for a snapshot of how the "back half" fared. After a drop off of 1.5 WAR from spot #1 to #2, then a 0.9 WAR dip from spot #2 to #3 we are starting to see a leveling off here at spot #4 with the fourth best players on their respective teams totaling 69.6 WAR for a 2.3 WAR average that is only down 0.4 WAR from the #3 spot. Can also see the top to bottom narrowing of the ranges for each spot as we move down the list with #1 having a 8.4 WAR range from Judge to Horwitz, #2 having a 5.2 WAR range from Carroll to McMahon, #3 having a 3.7 WAR range from Marte to Beck and now #4 having a 3.1 WAR range from Freeman to Tovar. The original #9 list had a range of 1.8 WAR top to bottom from Lukes to Miller. NUMBER FOUR PLAYERS 01. Freddie Freeman LAD (+1.6) 627 PA | 139 wRC+ | -10.4 DEF | 3.9 WAR [at 1,265 PA of 138 wRC+ for 7.8 WAR the last two years Freddie is down just a scooch from his eleven season prime where he hit for a 147 wRC+ and averaged 10.2 WAR per 1,265 PA, but still humming along on his way to Cooperstown] 02. Bo Bichette TOR (+1.5) 628 PA | 134 wRC+ | -6.0 DEF | 3.8 WAR [no doubt he can hit with a 120 AVG+ that ranks 8th of 233 batters with at least 1,500 PA since 2021. Power (104 ISO+) is a sliver above average, but he doesn't walk (69 BB%+) and the SS defense -19 DRS | -27 FRV might have Future 2B written all over it] 03. Michael Busch CHC (+1.2) 592 PA | 140 wRC+ | -10.1 DEF | 3.5 WAR [squeezed out of LAD, his 5.7 WAR playing 1B the last two years lands him 5th behind Harper (8.4 WAR), Freeman (7.9 WAR), Vlad Jr. (7.6 WAR), and Olson (7.3 WAR) on the leaderboard. Dodgers got back a pair of highly rated prospects in Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris] 04. Tyler Soderstrom ATH (+1.1) 624 PA | 125 wRC+ | -6.3 DEF | 3.4 WAR [pushed to LF with Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz in the DH/1B spots and graded out well with +10 DRS | +3 FRV in 867 innings. Had reverse home (119 wRC+) and road (132 wRC+) splits so wasn't just feasting on the minor league park in Sacto] 05. Trent Grisham NYY (+0.9) 581 PA | 129 wRC+ | -6.0 DEF | 3.2 WAR [after 1,815 PA of 92 wRC+ and .306 xwOBA from 2021-24, Trent found his stroke with a .366 xwOBA under the hood of his offensive surge. Wasn't some kind of short porch Yankee Stadium thing either with reverse home (104 wRC+) and road (151 wRC+) splits. Defense took a hit though with -11 DRS | -3 FRV compared to +26 DRS | +33 FRV for his career in CF entering 2025] 06. Bryson Stott PHI (+0.8) 560 PA | 100 wRC+ | +7.9 DEF | 3.1 WAR [odd year performer (100 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR in 2023), but even year slumper with 84 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR and 87 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR in 2022/24. His +16.2 BSR comes in 16th since his debut in 2022] 07. Eugenio Suarez ARI (+0.8) 437 PA | 141 wRC+ | -2.1 DEF | 3.1 WAR [nice four year run with 15.5 WAR placing him 31st in MLB right between Matt Chapman, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo and Austin Riley. Looks like FA predictions are between 2/45 and 3/66] 08. Trevor Story BOS (+0.7) 654 PA | 101 wRC+ | -1.6 DEF | 3.0 WAR [nice bounce back after 274 PA | 70 wRC+ | +9.4 DEF | 1.0 WAR the previous two seasons. So far the Red Sox have gotten 6.6 WAR for $85M over the first four years of his contract with two years and $55M remaining] 09. Brandon Nimmo NYM (+0.7) 652 PA | 114 wRC+ | -4.5 DEF | 3.0 WAR [similar story as his trade partner Marcus Semien. After hitting for a 135 wRC+ and averaging 10.0 WAR per 1,315 PA from 2018-23, Brandon has hit for a 111 wRC+ and totaled 5.8 WAR over his last two seasons] 10. Jackson Merrill SDP (+0.7) 483 PA | 116 wRC+ | +2.3 DEF | 3.0 WAR [the other Jackson as he's known round these here parts dealt with injuries during his sophmore season but still managed to edge out Jackson the younger by a fraction on account of a slightly better batting line and defense in less playing time] 11. Jackson Chourio MIL (+0.6) 589 PA | 111 wRC+ | -1.9 DEF | 2.9 WAR [after May 28th Chourio was sitting on 252 PA of 87 wRC+. From May 30th through his injury on July 29th he put up 220 PA of 148 wRC+, not all that different than the 144 wRC+ he put up over his final 397 PA of 2024. Just needs to stay healthy and do it for a whole season] 12. JP Crawford SEA (+0.5) 654 PA | 113 wRC+ | -3.0 DEF | 2.8 WAR [with 14.6 WAR since 2021 JP comes in 11th on the playing SS leaderboard over that stretch. He's also 11th on the playing SS since 2023 leaderboard with 9.3 WAR. Just missed here at 12th on the fourth best player on their team in 2025 leaderboard] 13. Ivan Herrera STL (+0.4) 452 PA | 137 wRC+ | -9.7 DEF | 2.7 WAR [can definitely hit with a 134 wRC+ over 711 PA the last two years. Question is if he can catch with -10 DRS | -4 FRV and a 7.4 CS% in only 721 innings behind the dish so far.] 14. Gleyber Torres DET (+0.3) 628 PA | 113 wRC+ | -2.6 DEF | 2.6 WAR [over 3,673 PA from 2018-24 Gleyber hit for a 114 wRC+ and averaged 2.7 WAR per 628 PA] 15. Jung Hoo Lee SFG (+0.1) 617 PA | 107 wRC+ | -5.7 DEF | 2.4 WAR [had a solid first full season with the bat after an injury shortened debut in 2024, but a -18 DRS jumps out right away, though StatCast wasn't quite so harsh at -5 OAA | -2 FRV with 87th to 91st percentile rankings in arm value and strength] 16. Mauricio Dubon HOU (-0.1) 398 PA | 80 wRC+ | +17.1 DEF | 2.2 WAR [has put up 2,058 PA | 85 wRC+ | +36.8 DEF | 6.6 WAR since we traded him for Drew Pomeranz (26 IP | 54 ERA- | 60 FIP- | +0.99 WPA) and Ray Black in 2019. Braves recently traded for him to presumably be their starting SS pending further transactions?] 17. Jakob Marsee MIA (-0.1) 234 PA | 133 wRC+ | +1.8 DEF | 2.2 WAR [nice debut for the 2022 6th rounder acquired by the Marlins from San Diego for Luis Arraez (1,199 PA | 107 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR with SDP). Marsee's actual .363 wOBA was a little out in front of his .346 xwOBA so probably not a true talent 133 wRC+ kind of guy (few are), but should give MIA 2/3rds of a legit OF along with Kyle Stowers] 18. Sean Murphy ATL (-0.3) 337 PA | 97 wRC+ | +10.7 DEF | 2.0 WAR [first season with the Braves went to plan with a 130 wRC+ and 5.0 WAR but injuries have curtailed things the last two years. Could be a trade candidate with the emergence of Drake Baldwin or ATL could hold both and roll into the season with enviable catching depth] 19. Jordan Westburg BAL (-0.4) 352 PA | 115 wRC+ | +1.5 DEF | 1.9 WAR [wasn't ranked quite as highly as fellow Orioles prospects Jackson Holliday, or Adley Rutschman, or Colton Cowser, or Coby Mayo, but outproduced them all in 2025, and with only 352 PA to boot] 20. Josh Smith TEX (-0.5) 563 PA | 100 wRC+ | -4.2 DEF | 1.8 WAR [solid utility guy who played all eight non-catcher spots for the Rangers last year] 21. Jake Mangum TBR (-0.5) 428 PA | 95 wRC+ | +1.7 DEF | 1.8 WAR [not a bad rookie season for a guy who looks like the classic 4th OF profile with +3 DRS | +4 FRV in 933 innings at all three OF spots plus +3.7 BSR and 91st percentile sprint speed] 22. Luke Keaschall MIN (-0.7) 207 PA | 134 wRC+ | -1.4 DEF | 1.6 WAR [nice debut for the 2023 2nd rounder whose 155 wRC+ was 7th best in all of the minors from 2023 to 2024 (min. 500 PA). Might have been a little out over his skis though with a .363 actual wOBA compared to a .323 xwOBA in his MLB sample] 23. Nolan Schanuel LAA (-0.9) 564 PA | 109 wRC+ | -10.1 DEF | 1.4 WAR [among 120 players with at least 1,000 PA the last two years, Schanuel is 110th with 2.1 WAR. His 0.76 BB/K rate is 10th in MLB since his debut in 2023, and he hits for decent average (107 AVG+), but has no power to speak of with a 71 ISO+ that is in the same range as guys like Turang (70), Andres Gimenez (71) and Mauricio Dubon (71) over that stretch] 24. Lenyn Sosa CHW (-0.9) 544 PA | 100 wRC+ | -4.8 DEF | 1.4 WAR [decent uptick in production with a .326 xwOBA under the hood after 578 PA of 66 wRC+ and .303 xwOBA to open his career. His 3.2 BB% is thee very lowest of anyone in MLB (min. 1,000 PA) since his debut in 2022] 25. Daniel Schneemann CLE (-1.0) 422 PA | 79 wRC+ | +8.0 DEF | 1.3 WAR [had never heard of Thee Schnee Mann (not sure if that is a real nickname or not but it should be) until he was named a finalist for the AL Utility Gold Glove. For a guy who was the 1,003rd pick in the 2018 Draft it's all a win at this point] 26. Joey Bart PIT (-1.0) 332 PA | 101 wRC+ | +3.6 DEF | 1.3 WAR [former #2 overall pick by the Giants has a 112 wRC+ the last two years with the Pirates which ranks 8th among 33 players with at least 500 PA behind the dish over that time. His matching -10 DRS and FRV suggest he could still use some work on the behind the dish part though] 27. Mike Yastrzemski KCR (-1.0) 186 PA | 127 wRC+ | +0.5 DEF | 1.3 WAR [since 2021 grandson of Yaz (pending FA) is at 2410 PA | 107 wRC+ | -13.5 DEF | 9.6 WAR. Over that same stretch Trent Grisham (QO acceptor) is at 2344 PA | 102 wRC+ | +9.0 DEF | 9.7 WAR. Pretty dang close with a lil more bat for Yaz and a lil more glove for Grish] 28. Austin Hays CIN (-1.1) 416 PA | 105 wRC+ | -5.3 DEF | 1.2 WAR [had a decent run with the Orioles from 2021-23 where his 6.0 WAR playing OF placed him 35th in MLB. Cratered in 2024, got non-tendered, signed for $5M with the Reds for 2025. Prolly looking at another $5M one year deal kind of situation I'd imagine] 29. Jacob Young WAS (-1.3) 364 PA | 66 wRC+ | +12.2 DEF | 1.0 WAR [among 272 players with at least 600 PA over the last two years Jacob comes in with +26.1 DEF (9th) but a 77 wRC+ (254th). Kind of like if Patrick Bailey, Ke'Bryan Hayes or Andres Gimenez played CF instead of their actual positions] 30. Ezequiel Tovar COL (-1.5) 390 PA | 78 wRC+ | +5.7 DEF | 0.8 WAR [had the fielding (+12 DRS | +13 FRV) but no hitting (72 wRC+) in 2023. Got the wRC+ up to 94 with +10 DRS | +16 FRV good for 3.7 WAR after extending in 2024. Couple of injuries tanked his 2025]

From what I understand Haslam was primarily brought on board the ownership group for a cash infusion because Lasry didn't want to keep paying the tax. Edens has the Governorship (& whatever that entails) until 2028, Haslam is slated for the five years after that. The destruction of the Bucks is a lot more tied in to Middleton's, Lillard's, and now Giannis's bodies failing them to various extents since the Title Run. Hard to say Haslam really destroyed the Browns either. From 1999-2011 they had two winning seasons, one playoff loss, and averaged 5 wins a season. The Browns were a joke when Haslam bought the team in 2012 and remain a joke today, nothing was ruined along the way.

StatCast Park Factors has Fenway with a 122 rating for doubles, first place ahead of even Coors at 119. AmFam is 27th with an 87 rating for doubles, so about as big of a swing between extremes as there is.

Mitchell staying healthy enough to put up even like three hundred some PA at his career levels, plus Ortiz bouncing back closer to the midpoint between his 105 wRC+ from 2024 and 67 wRC+ from last year would pretty much cover for the likely regression incoming from Collins (122 wRC+) & Vaughn (142 wRC+) who could each lose twenty some points off their surprising 2025 marks. You get that plus breakout seasons from Contreras & Chourio? Whoo boy, could be some kind of fun summer.

Couple red flags for Duran are that he’s pretty much a platoon only guy with a 138 wRC+ vs RHP but only a 78 wRC+ vs LHP over the last three years. Also probably getting a little Fenway boost with a 131 wRC+ at home versus a 112 wRC+ on the road over that same stretch. Likely one of the best guys available via trade this offseason so not sure Ashby, Gasser, Mears would get it done. Think the headliner would probably have to be Peralta or one of Patrick/Henderson to really get the Red Sox attention.

Jansen, Hoskins, Quintana, Shelby Miller, and Eric Haase are all free agents. The Brewers cannot trade them.

When Hader was traded at the deadline in 2022 Chourio had already emerged as more or less the biggest star on the horizon after laying waste to the Carolina League at age 18. Here's how MLB ordered them for 2023... #1 Chourio (6.9 WAR so far) #2 Frelick (6.2 WAR) #3 Wiemer (0.6 WAR) #4 Mitchell (3.3 WAR) #5 Turang (6.8 WAR) #6 Quero (yet to debut) #7 Misio (0.7 rWAR) #8 Black (-0.1 WAR) #9 Brown Jr. (yet to reach AAA) #10 Gasser (0.7 rWAR) #12 Uribe (3.2 rWAR) #26 Henderson (1.2 rWAR) That's five core guys (Jackson, Sal, Brice, Jacob, Abner), three yet to be determined (Logan, Robert, Jeferson), one guy who's been effective when healthy (Garrett), and three looking like busts (Joey, Tyler, Eric). Pretty hard to complain about the overall results even with Mitchell and Black not fulfilling their hype.

McKinstry reads to me kinda like an older Isaac Collins with more positional versatility. After posting a 79 wRC+ | .299 xwOBA over his first 1,207 career PA, McKinstry's 114 wRC+ certainly jumps out. But with a .333 actual wOBA to go along with a not all that improved .303 xwOBA under the hood there was likely a good bit of fortune in there. Issac had a similar gap last year with with a .344 actual wOBA but only a .319 xwOBA. Steamer pegs Collins to regress down to a 101 wRC+ next year and forecasts a drop down to a 90 wRC+ for McKinstry. Zach is a useful player on any hopeful contender, but I wouldn't give up a leverage arm like Megill for him.

There is a thread dedicated to the Brewers last trade with each team that Jim does a pretty meticulous job updating. Looks like the last Brewers last trade with KC was when we sent them Mark Canha for a PTBNL (that ended up being Cesar Espinal) in March of 2025. Before that we traded them minor league forum legend Cam Devanney and Ryan Brady for Taylor Clarke in December of 2023. Despite nice depth in the outfield, I'm not sure the Brewers are necessarily all that well positioned to deal anyone away. Sal and Jackson are surefire starters, they aren't going anywhere. Mitchell is hurt all the time so no one is probably going give up much for him. That leaves Perkins and Collins. Blake is a glove first (+18 each on DRS and FRV), limited bat (85 career wRC+) kind of guy. The Royals already have their own Perkins in Kyle Isbel with +38 DRS | +36 FRV and a 78 career wRC+. So it's pretty much down to Collins. His 122 wRC+ was nice on the surface but there was a .319 xwOBA under the hood compared to Isaac registering a .343 actual wOBA, so probably fair to say he got a little lucky. With that likely regression baked in, Steamer sees Collins as good for a 101 wRC+ in 2026. The Royals depth chart at FanGraphs currently has a collection of guys in LF named John Rave, Nick Loftin, and Dairon Blanco getting most of the PA so maybe there could be a match there. Only problem is if you deal Collins, then Mitchell gets hurt in spring training, you are left with no choice but to start Perkins, with Bauers and Yelich as your backups. Last year the two of them combined to start 41 games in the OF, I'd prefer to get that number as close to zero as possible. Only way to do that is keep your depth to cover for the inevitable.

Having a bunch of legit prospects waiting in AAA is also a pretty nice testament to how much the depth of the system has been improving over the last few years too. Think 2022 when Turang, Frelick and Mitchell (okay, and Wiemer too) were all in Nashville was the last time we had that many guys on the cusp.

Moving on down the line to the thirty players who were third on their respective teams by FanGraphs version of WAR. After a 5.1 WAR average for the #1 spot dropped all the way down to a 3.6 WAR average for the #2 spot it looks like these thirty players totaled 82.2 WAR, or an average of 2.7 WAR each. Not quite as steep as the 1.5 WAR fall off from spots one to two, but still almost a full win lost on average between spots two and three. As a decent comparison point for how top heavy talent distribution is there are now only 1.9 WAR separating spot #3 and spot #9, compared to 2.4 WAR separating spot #1 and #3. The Team Depth Project Standings below also serve as a quick & dirty proxy for how much a team's top three players correlate with their overall standing on the team WAR leaderboard. The Top Eight teams in the TDPS below all finished in the Top Nine of position player WAR on the FanGraphs leaderboard. The lone outlier is of course the Brewers (currently 11th) who should start climbing from here on out with WARs between 2.9 (Jackson Chourio) and 1.9 (Andrew Vaughn) in the four through eight spots. Obviously feel free to chime in if anything jumps out to you along the way, and I'll keep compiling & updating as I get each spot wrapped up. In the meantime, the third best players on their respective teams rankings... NUMBER THREE PLAYERS 01. Ketel Marte ARI (+1.9 WAR) 556 PA | 145 wRC+ | 0.0 DEF | 4.6 WAR [premier offensive 2B in MLB with a 140 wRC+ over the last three years while no other current keystone man has gotten their wRC+ into the 120's during that stretch] 02. Kyle Tucker HOU (+1.8) 597 PA | 136 wRC+ | -5.1 DEF | 4.5 WAR [entering 2025 Kyle had a career 139 wRC+ and averaged 4.9 WAR per 597 PA. His 23.4 WAR since 2021 is 10th in MLB. Is this just what $400M looks like now?] 03. Jazz Chisolm Jr. NYY (+1.7) 531 PA | 126 wRC+ | 5.3 DEF | 4.4 WAR [does a little bit of everything with a 117 wRC+ the last four years, +21.3 BSR coming in 7th on the bases over the last five seasons, and +8 DRS | +13 FRV at 2B for his career] 04. Andy Pages LAD (+1.4) 624 PA | 113 wRC+ | +8.4 DEF | 4.1 WAR [third best player for the Dodgers and still no Freddie or Mookie. LAD won the World Series with Pages hitting 078/113/098 (-45 wRC+) over 55 postseason PAs. Ben Sheets career batting line is 076/113/082] 05. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR (+1.2) 680 PA | 137 wRC+ | -12.5 DEF | 3.9 WAR [played like a $500M man in the playoffs with 89 PA of 241 wRC+, but regular seasons have been more of a rollercoaster with wRC+ marks of 166, 132, 117, 164, and 137 the last five years. His 143 wRC+ from age 22 to 26 is exactly the same as Miguel Cabrera, who put up 4,560 PA of 167 wRC+ and 43.6 WAR from age 27 to 33 before it was over with another 2,795 PA of 93 wRC+ and -2.1 WAR from age 34 to 40] 06. Pete Alonso NYM (+0.9) 709 PA | 141 wRC+ | -17.7 DEF | 3.6 WAR [after hitting for a .249 batting average / .262 BABIP over his first 3,607 PA, Pete cranked it up to a .272 batting average / .305 BABIP in his second walk year. His 41 doubles were ten above his previous career high] 07. Sal Frelick MIL (+0.9) 594 PA | 114 wRC+ | +2.8 DEF | 3.6 WAR [good surface level improvement after 747 PA of 89 wRC+ to open his career. Might have been some luck in the mix with his actual wOBA jumping to .332 from .297 his first two years, while his xwOBA saw a more modest gain of .284 to .298] 08. Bryce Harper PHI (+0.8) 580 PA | 131 wRC+ | -8.2 DEF | 3.5 WAR [after his first MVP in 2015, Bryce put up 2,740 PA of 132 wRC+ for 14.9 WAR before winning his second MVP. Since the second trophy in 2021 he's at 2,193 PA of 139 wRC+ for 14.7 WAR. Maybe due for one more heading into his age 33 season] 09. Alex Bregman BOS (+0.8) 495 PA | 125 wRC+ | +4.6 DEF | 3.5 WAR [from 2020-24 Bregman hit for a 124 wRC+ and averaged 3.3 WAR per 495 PA. Didn't feast on the Monster as many predicted with reverse home (106 wRC+) and road (143 wRC+) splits] 10. Jacob Wilson ATH (+0.8) 523 PA | 121 wRC+ | +3.0 DEF | 3.5 WAR [nice first full season for the son of Jack. two thing to keep an eye on are his SS defense with -14 DRS | -4 FRV so far, and how he fares outside of Sacto with a 140 wRC+ in the minor league park last year compared to a 103 wRC+ on the road] 11. Xander Bogaerts SDP (+0.5) 552 PA | 104 wRC+ | +8.9 DEF | 3.2 WAR [from 2015-22 with BOS Xander hit for a 122 wRC+ and averaged 4.8 WAR per 665 PA. In his first season with SDP in 2023 he hit for a 119 wRC+ and put up 4.6 WAR over 665 PA. Last two years have only been a 100 wRC+ and 3.4 WAR per 665 PA. Eight years and $200M remain thru age forty.] 12. Patrick Bailey SFG (+0.5) 452 PA | 70 wRC+ | +35.2 DEF | 3.2 WAR [among 229 players with at least 1,000 PA since 2023 Bailey comes in at +97.2 DEF (1st) and 76 wRC+ (225th). Among 82 players on that leaderboard with a 100 wRC+ or lower Bailey is the only one to crack ten wins, with Bryson Stott (96 wRC+ | 9.0 WAR) and Maikel Garcia (93 wRC+ | 9.0 WAR) getting the closest of the rest] 13. Drake Baldwin ATL (+0.4) 446 PA | 125 wRC+ | +3.9 DEF | 3.1 WAR [deserving NL ROY winner with a solid all around season at the plate. Only real red flag is the throwing with 88 SB the third most allowed in MLB and his 13.7 CS% second lowest among 31 catchers with at least 600 innings last year] 14. Randy Arozarena SEA (+0.2) 709 PA | 120 wRC+ | -11.6 DEF | 2.9 WAR [how shallow has LF become league wide? Going back to 2021 there are only five players to crack ten WAR while playing LF with Steven Kwan (14.8 WAR), and Ian Happ (14.4 WAR) just ahead of Randy (12.2 WAR) then a couple of moonlight LF sneaking in with Yelich (10.4 WAR) and Yordan Alvarez (10.2 WAR). First five years that FanGraphs has positional splits (2002-06) the top five LF (excluding Barry and his 37.5 WAR lol) were between Carl Crawford (17.2 WAR) and Luis Gonzalez (13.7 WAR) with six more over ten and Raul Ibanez (9.5 WAR) just missing out] 15. Riley Greene DET (+0.2) 655 PA | 121 wRC+ | -8.0 DEF | 2.9 WAR [best position player on the Tigers over the last three seasons has crushed RHP with a 140 wRC+ during that time, but might be time for a caddy with an 85 wRC+ vs LHP over that same stretch] 16. Willson Contreras STL (+0.1) 563 PA | 124 wRC+ | -5.0 DEF | 2.8 WAR [elder Contreras has pretty much been the epitome of the "Professional Hitter" with his 130 wRC+ over the last four years sneaking him just inside the Top 25 in MLB over that stretch] 17. Jonathan Aranda TBR (-0.2) 422 PA | 146 wRC+ | -6.3 DEF | 2.5 WAR [nice breakout for Aranda with a .381 xwOBA under the hood after posting a 99 wRC+ and .313 xwOBA over is first 333 career PA. Small sample of only 943 innings at first base over the last two years (31st in MLB) but the metrics like him to the tune of +8 DRS (4th) and +3 FRV (8th)] 18. Otto Lopez MIA (-0.4) 594 PA | 86 wRC+ | +11.9 DEF | 2.3 WAR [last two years Otto is at 1028 PA | 88 wRC+ | +23.5 DEF | 4.8 WAR. Last two years Joey Ortiz is at 1017 PA | 86 wRC+ | +25.0 DEF | 4.5 WAR. Finkle is Einhorn] 19. Jake Meyers HOU (-0.4) 381 PA | 107 wRC+ | +5.4 DEF | 2.3 WAR [nice offensive improvement after 1,014 PA of 83 wRC+ from 2022-24. Looked good under the hood too with his xwOBA jumping to .323 in 2025 after being down at .289 from 2022-24] 20. Ramon Laureano BAL (-0.4) 290 PA | 145 wRC+ | -2.7 DEF | 2.3 WAR [neither Jordan Westburg, nor Jackson Holliday, nor Adley Rutschman, nor Colton Cowser, nor Coby Mayo could outproduce half a season of the journeyman Laureano who has played for five teams in the last three years] 21. Marcus Semien TEX (-0.6) 534 PA | 89 wRC+ | +6.4 DEF | 2.1 WAR [after missing only 14 games from 2018-24 bad luck struck Semein's foot in the form of an errant foul ball and he missed the last 33 games of 2025. Mets hoping for a rebound of sorts with the bat, but after hitting for a 123 wRC+ and .331 xwOBA over 2,339 PA from 2019-23, Marcus has only managed a 96 wRC+ and .315 xwOBA these last two years] 22. Harrison Bader MIN (-0.7) 307 PA | 118 wRC+ | +2.3 DEF | 2.0 WAR [our first re-appearance of the project. On the Phillies for two months, Harrison was the 7th best ninth best player in baseball. On the Twins for four months, he was the 22nd best third best player] 23. Mike Trout LAA (-0.9) 556 PA | 120 wRC+ | -14.0 DEF | 1.8 WAR [after 6,159 PA of 172 wRC+ for 81.5 WAR thru age thirty, Trout has totaled 1,044 PA of 127 wRC+ for 5.7 WAR the last three seasons. Has five years and $177M left on his contract] 24. Vinnie Pasquantino KCR (-1.2) 682 PA | 116 wRC+ | -16.9 DEF | 1.5 WAR [after an encouraging 136 wRC+ and .374 xwOBA over 298 PA in his 2022 debut, Vinnie has put together 1496 discouraging PA of 111 wRC+ and .335 xwOBA in the three years since] 25. Bo Naylor CLE (-1.2) 414 PA | 85 wRC+ | +8.2 DEF | 1.5 WAR [among thirty players with at least 750 PA behind the plate since 2023, Bo comes in at 988 PA (17th) | 88 wRC+ (23rd) | +28.6 DEF (14th) | 5.0 WAR (17th). Nothing too remarkable. But his +0.2 BSR is the only positive base runner on the list, with JTR (-0.2) / Jake Rogers (-0.7) just missing out and Alejandro Kirk bringing up the rear at -14.0 BSR] 26. Jared Triolo PIT (-1.2) 376 PA | 86 wRC+ | +6.1 DEF | 1.5 WAR [not only was Triolo the third best player for PIT last year, his 3.4 career WAR since debuting in 2023 represents the 4th highest total for a Pirates position player over that stretch behind Oneil Cruz (5.5 WAR), Bryan Reynolds (5.4 WAR) and the since departed Ke'Bryan Hayes (4.1 WAR)] 27. Matt McClain CIN (-1.3) 577 PA | 77 wRC+ | +6.8 DEF | 1.4 WAR [batting line crashed with a .287 xwOBA under the hood after posting a 129 wRC+ and .332 xwOBA in his 2023 debut. Reds likely hoping that shoulder surgery which sidelined him for all of 2024 was the primary culprit] 28. Mike Tauchmann CHW (-1.3) 385 PA | 115 wRC+ | -4.3 DEF | 1.4 WAR [pretty consistent platoon OF with between 350 and 401 PA, 108 to 115 wRC+, and 1.0 to 1.7 WAR each of the last three seasons. Out of 93 players with at least 750 PA as an OF the last three years Mike's 3.8 WAR is 54th] 29. Daylen Lile WAS (-1.3) 351 PA | 132 wRC+ | -13.0 DEF | 1.4 WAR [nice age 22 half season debut at the plate with his .360 actual wOBA not too far ahead of his .347 xwOBA. If early returns on his defense are to be believed (-14 DRS | -10 FRV in only 624 innings, woof) he might be destined for DH only] 30. Jordan Beck COL (-1.8) 588 PA | 90 wRC+ | -4.2 DEF | 0.9 WAR [you may recall that 0.8 WAR was the average ninth best player so Beck clears that threshold anyway. The above line is also a marked improvement over his 184 PA of 31 wRC+ resulting in -1.0 WAR from his 2024 debut so there is that]

I don't doubt Areinamo will have a nice MLB career, but with guys like Pratt, Made, and Pena ahead of him up the middle, plus Wilken and Fischer at 3B, and then guys like Turang, Durbin and Ortiz already established MLBers with multiple years of control left, it's unlikely we would have a place for him anyway.

Below are the thirty players who had the second highest fWAR on their respective teams for 2025. With a 5.1 WAR average for spot #1 and a 0.8 WAR average spot for #9 that would be something like a 0.5/0.6 WAR drop for each spot on the way down, but we know that talent is top heavy and isn't distributed evenly so I thought we'd see a little bigger drop from #1 to #2, maybe even a whole win. Turns out these thirty players totaled 108.7 WAR for an average of 3.6 WAR, a full win and a half down from the #1 spot. The top four second best players on their respective teams all cleared the 5.1 WAR average for the #1 spot with the next four coming up a couple few tenths short. The range has also predictably narrowed from 8.4 WAR top to bottom for the #1 guys, to 5.2 WAR for the #2 guys. Will also include the updated Team Depth Project Standings as a separate post. NUMBER TWO PLAYERS 01. Corbin Carroll ARI (+2.9 WAR) 642 PA | 139 wRC+ | +2.5 DEF | 6.5 WAR [with 16.2 WAR Corbin ranks 9th in MLB since his first full season in 2023 while his +33.6 BSR is a full ten runs ahead of EDLC in second place at +23.5. Among 113 primary OF to get at least 1,500 PA from age 22 to 24 since 1947 Carroll's 16.2 WAR nestles him between guys like Mookie (16.8 WAR), Soto (16.6 WAR), Reggie (16.3 WAR), Raines (15.8 WAR), Yaz (15.5 WAR), and JRod (15.5 WAR)] 02. Juan Soto NYM (+2.2) 715 PA | 156 wRC+ | -17.2 DEF | 5.8 WAR [among 335 players with at least 2,500 PA thru age 26 since 1947 Soto comes in at 18.7 BB% (1st) | 158 wRC+ (6th) | 42.3 WAR (11th). The ten guys ahead of him on the WAR leaderboard are seven HOFers plus Trout, Pujols and A-Rod. The eleven guys below him are six HOFers plus Bonds, Mookie and Andruw Jones who might make it in yet this year] 03. Julio Rodriguez SEA (+2.1) 710 PA | 126 wRC+ | +5.9 DEF | 5.7 WAR [with 21.2 WAR Julio ranks 10th in MLB since his debut in 2022, it also ties Barry Bonds for 12th among 73 primary OF with at least 2,000 PA from age 21 to 24 since 1947. Probably hindered somewhat by playing in the pitcher friendly environs of Seattle with career 120/137 wRC+ splits for home/road and even more extreme 114/154 wRC+ career splits for 1st/2nd half] 04. Maikel Garcia KCR (+2.0) 666 PA | 121 wRC+ | +14.9 DEF | 5.6 WAR [pretty sure next to zero baseball fans would have had Maikel down as a Top Five second best player on a team before the 2025 season, but here we are. After posting a 78 wRC+ and .307 xwOBA over his first 1,164 PA he stepped things up to the tune of a 121 wRC+ and .335 xwOBA last year. Garcia's +29 FRV | +15 DRS has him in contention with Matt Chapman (+16 FRV | +34 DRS) and Ryan McMahon (+21 FRV | +36 DRS) for the second best defensive five after Ke'Bryan Hayes with +37 FRV | +50 DRS over the last three years] 05. Kyle Schwarber PHI (+1.3) 724 PA | 152 wRC+ | -19.5 DEF | 4.9 WAR [after posting an impressive 167 ISO+ over his first three years in Philly, Kyle went off for a 208 ISO+ bettered only by Judge, Ohtani, and Raleigh in his walk year. Has a shot at 500 HR with 340 bombs already banked (including 187 the last four years). Forty three different players have hit at least 160 HR from age 33 onward since 1947, but by rough count at least half were Steroid Era guys so *] 06. Cody Bellinger NYY (+1.3) 656 PA | 125 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 4.9 WAR [nice bounce back after a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR in 2024. Fueled pretty heavily by a 152 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium versus a 97 wRC+ on the road and some pretty nutso reverse splits with a 180 wRC+ vs LHP compared to only a 105 wRC+ vs RHP. This after posting 120 home / 123 away and 136 lefty / 115 righty wRC+ splits with the Cubs (1,125 total PA). For the four seasons he was a productive hitter with the Dodgers before that (2,083 total PA) it was 140 away / 133 home and 119 lefty / 146 righty wRC+ splits] 07. Nico Hoerner CHC (+1.2) 649 PA | 109 wRC+ | +13.5 DEF | 4.8 WAR [among 306 players with at least 1,000 PA since 2022 Nico comes in at +19.7 BSR (6th) and +50.6 DEF (11th). Super consistent at the plate between a 102 and 109 wRC+ each of the last five seasons] 08. Alejandro Kirk TOR (+1.1) 506 PA | 116 wRC+ | +24.9 DEF | 4.7 WAR [bounced back with the bat after putting up a 94 wRC+ from 2023-24. Among 34 catchers with at least 2,000 innings since 2022 he comes in at +60 FRV (2nd) | +48 DRS (2nd) | +38.2 framing (5th)] 09. Will Smith LAD (+0.5) 436 PA | 153 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 4.1 WAR [the Fresh Prince's 22.4 WAR since his debut in 2019 is 3rd among all catchers behind JT Realmuto (25.1 WAR) and Cal Raleigh (22.9 WAR). Continued the streak of a Will Smith winning the World Series every year of the 2020's] 10. Corey Seager TEX (+0.4) 445 PA | 138 wRC+ | +5.6 DEF | 4.0 WAR [his career 136 wRC+ is third among all SS since 1947 behind only ARod with a 147 wRC+ during his eight years at the six and Banks with a 139 wRC+ over his seven prime SS seasons] 11. Shea Langeliers ATH (+0.3) 523 PA | 132 wRC+ | 0.0 DEF | 3.9 WAR [traded to the A's by the Braves for Matt Olson. Killed it vs LHP (184 wRC+) and on the road (148 wRC+), had more modest success vs RHP (116 wRC+) and in Sacto (118 wRC+). Among 33 catchers with at least 1,500 innings since 2023 he comes in at -33 DRS (33rd) | -24.9 framing (32nd) | -25 FRV (31st)] 12. Manny Machado SDP (+0.2) 678 PA | 123 wRC+ | -3.5 DEF | 3.8 WAR [batting has been right in line with his career averages the last two years, but after averaging +15.4 DEF per 1,321 PA thru 2023 Manny's managed -7.1 DEF over his last two years and 1,321 PA. Has 8/301 remaining on his contract] 13. Ceddanne Rafaela BOS (+0.2) 587 PA | 91 wRC+ | +19.0 DEF | 3.8 WAR [second really big defense first profile to show up after Masyn Winn at the end of the #1 players list. Comes in at +32 DRS and +28 FRV the last two years among OF so pretty much between him, PCA (+26 DRS | +37 FRV), Daulton Varsho (+38 DRS | +22 FRV), and Jacob Young (+25 DRS | +31 FRV) for best in the business] 14. Matt Chapman SFG (+0.1) 535 PA | 118 wRC+ | +5.9 DEF | 3.7 WAR [entering 2025 Chapman had a career 118 wRC+ and averaged 3.9 WAR per 535 PA] 15. William Contreras MIL (even) 659 PA | 113 wRC+ | +6.5 DEF | 3.6 WAR [down year compared to 2023-24 (129 wRC+ | +27.2 DEF | 11.3 WAR) but I'll give him a pass since catching and hitting MLB pitching with a mangled finger has to suck majorly. William's 15.0 WAR these last three years ties him with Darrell Porter for 12th among 136 backstops with at least 1,000 PA from age 25 to 27 going back to 1947. Eight of the eleven guys ahead of them are HOF or likely to be soon so he's right on the cusp. Perfect time for a career year] 16. Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL (-0.1) 412 PA | 161 wRC+ | -11.2 DEF | 3.5 WAR [2026 is the last guaranteed season of his extension, though the Braves hold club options for 2027/28 so Ronald will likely hit FA heading into his age 31 season. With 31.9 WAR (16th in MLB since his debut in 2018) over 3,666 career PA, he has averaged 5.2 WAR/600 PA. Stay healthy enough to put up 15 or so WAR over the next three years and he might be able to coax another $400M out of somebody, throw another MVP calibre season in there pushing it closer to 20 WAR and could be looking at half a billion.] 17. Steven Kwan CLE (-0.4) 693 PA | 99 wRC+ | +7.6 DEF | 3.2 WAR [so far Steven has been an even year savant (125 and 131 wRC+ in 2022/24) and odd year middler (99 wRC+ in both 2023/25). Base running has fallen off from +10.3 BSR first two years to +0.7 BSR last two years but remains the premier defensive LF with his +68 DRS since 2022 thirty five runs above second place and his +32 FRV twenty three runs ahead of second place] 18. Zach McKinstry DET (-0.4) 511 PA | 114 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 3.2 WAR [maybe a big offensive leap year for Zach with a 79 wRC+ | .299 xwOBA over his first 1,207 career PA. Maybe not though with a .333 actual wOBA to go along with a not all that improved .303 xwOBA under the hood. Played five different positions (mostly 3B/SS/corner OF) and that's not even counting his two innings at 1B or 0.1 IP] 19. CJ Abrams WAS (-0.5) 635 PA | 107 wRC+ | -3.3 DEF | 3.1 WAR [excellent base runner with +18.2 BSR ranking 6th in MLB since 2023. Fielding in dispute candidate with -1 DRS at SS since 2023 fair to middling but his -31 FRV is twice as bad as JP Crawford's second worst -15 FRV mark] 20. Yandy Diaz TBR (-0.7) 651 PA | 135 wRC+ | -19.8 DEF | 2.9 WAR [his 140 wRC+ since 2022 is 10th in MLB. Extra impressive with a 52.6 GB% that is 3rd in MLB over that span behind only Yelich (57.1%) and William Contreras (53.0%) among 179 hitters with at least 1,500 PA] 21. Brendan Donovan STL (-0.7) 515 PA | 119 wRC+ | -0.1 DEF | 2.9 WAR [super consistent for batting average fans between .278 and .287 each of his four seasons. Rare Cardinal that is not a Brewers killer, with a career .591 OPS versus Milwaukee. Rumoured offseason trade candidate] 22. Taylor Ward LAA (-0.7) 663 PA | 117 wRC+ | -6.2 DEF | 2.9 WAR [recently traded to the Orioles for oft injured former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez who has 238 IP of 100 ERA- | 91 FIP- in his two MLB seasons] 23. TJ Friedl CIN (-0.7) 685 PA | 109 wRC+ | -3.5 DEF | 2.9 WAR [mad respect for any undrafted free agent that not only makes it to the show, but has also clocked seven wins over his two healthy seasons] 24. Isaac Paredes HOU (-1.1) 438 PA | 128 wRC+ | -2.1 DEF | 2.5 WAR [part of the Cubs package to the Astros along with Cam Smith (1.0 WAR) for Kyle Tucker (4.5 WAR). Houston has two more years of Paredes and five more for Smith] 25. Xavier Edwards MIA (-1.1) 619 PA | 95 wRC+ | +3.8 DEF | 2.5 WAR [the original "slap-AHEM" prospect per Blake Snell. -11 DRS | -12 FRV for his career at SS, but the metrics liked him at 2B to the tune of +12 DRS | +7 FRV last year] 26. Ryan O'Hearn BAL (-1.2) 361 PA | 135 wRC+ | -2.9 DEF | 2.4 WAR [the second best Oriole wasn't any of their highly ranked prospects like Jordan Westburg, or Jackson Holliday, or Adley Rutschman, or Colton Cowser, or Coby Mayo, it was four months of a 31 year old at the bottom of the defensive spectrum who got traded at the deadline] 27. Ryan Jeffers MIN (-1.5) 464 PA | 113 wRC+ | -0.8 DEF | 2.1 WAR [has carved out a nice little niche the last three years with his 117 wRC+ ranking 5th among 23 primary catchers with at least 1,000 PA. But among 33 catchers with at least 1,500 innings over that same stretch he's at -13 DRS (28th) and -22 FRV (30th) behind the plate] 28. Kyle Teel CHW (-1.7) 297 PA | 125 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 1.9 WAR [acquired from the Red Sox for Garrett Crochet. 125 wRC+ is nice for a catcher in his MLB debut, but small sample early returns on his defense were less encouraging with -4 DRS | -3 FRV over just 501 innings] 29. Oneil Cruz PIT (-2.0) 544 PA | 86 wRC+ | +0.9 DEF | 1.6 WAR [fell off some at the plate after posting a 108 wRC+ over 1,000 PA from 2022-24. Might have been some bad luck in there though as his xwOBA only went down to .321 compared to .326 for 2022-24. DRS of -16 thinks the OF has been a disaster, FRV at +5 is a little more optimistic] 30. Ryan McMahon COL (-2.3) 401 PA | 87 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 1.3 WAR [for his career Ryan McMahon has an 89 wRC+, for four months with the Rockies last year he had an 87 wRC+, for two months as a Yankee he had an 84 wRC+. He is who we thought he was, I'm not sure if he has been let off any kind of hook however]

Once Middleton's health failed him for good (& then Giannis got hurt right before the 2024 playoffs) the Championship window was realistically closed. Last year would have taken a miracle, this year will take a miracle. Some might say the eight seed Heat, five seed Mavs and four seed Pacers making the Finals in B2B2B years took some kind(s) of miracle(s). The Bucks went All In to placate their Superstar, it didn't work out just like the majority of All In pushes don't work out, and now we're experiencing the ugly aftermath. All that really matters at this point is Giannis staying healthy enough to play out the season through its conclusion (whatever that may be) or at least until the trade deadline if the front office tries to cash in before something major befalls him.

No, still way too early. Over the first 13 games when they were 8 W - 5 L and Giannis was healthy Turner was +55 cumulative in On/Off the eleven games he played with Giannis. During this seven game losing streak with limited to no Giannis he has been -46 cumulative in On/Off. Myles was brought in to be a complement to Giannis, not a stand alone player. So far in his minutes on the court with Giannis the Bucks are +8.3 points per 100 possessions. If they can both stay mostly healthy the rest of the season and keep playing at that level when on the court together Turner will have done exactly what he was brought here to do.

Last time Middleton was healthy in 2023-24 the Bucks main lineup of Dame | Beasley | Khris | Giannis | Brook was +15.6 points per 100 possessions. The trio of just Dame / Khris / Giannis was +17.0 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics main lineup in 2023-24 of Holiday | White | Brown | Tatum | Porzingis when they won it all was +11.3 points per possessions. When the Nuggets won it all in 2022-23 their main lineup of Murray | KCP | MPJ | Gordon | Jokic was +12.6 points per 100 possessions. OKC's five man Championship lineup last year with SGA | Williams | Dort | Chet | Hartenstein was +14.4 points per 100 possessions. When Khris, Giannis and Dame were all healthy the team was Championship calibre as intended. The Bucks recent seven game skid has been a schedule loss with a B2B after an In Season Tourney game, Giannis got hurt game, Giannis misses four games, Giannis first game back (probably too early) on the road at NY. Before that they were right where they were supposed to be at 8 W - 5 L even with KPJ down and out after the first nine minutes of the season If Giannis can stay healthy enough to hit the 65 games needed to get his 8th consecutive 1st Team All NBA nod (can only miss ten games rest of the way) they shouldn't have a problem getting back up to the six seed.

You're close. What Adrian Griffin got was the last stretch of healthy Middleton, with him playing 37 of those 43 games he coached. Khris only played 16 of the the 36 games Doc coached after taking over midseason, then 23 of 49 games before being traded at the deadline the following season. If NBA front offices believed Griffin was a true talent level .698 W% guy he would have gotten another HC gig by now.

Putting together the Joey Ortiz Ninth Best Player post got me thinking about talent distribution and different kinds of team construction so I thought I'd keep the series going but flip it for real to the opposite end of the spectrum with a look into thee very best players on every team last year (by FanGraphs version of WAR anyway). In subsequent posts I'll continue down the team leaderboards, figure out the average WAR for each spot, then see where each team made up and lost ground (& how much at each spot). For instance, the thirty players below who each topped their team in WAR totaled 153.7 WAR for an average of 5.1 WAR each. It was a top heavy list with the first eleven players adding up to 78.3 WAR versus 75.4 WAR for the last nineteen. Which makes sense. The top to bottom range on ninth best players was very narrow at 1.8 WAR compared to a considerably wider top to bottom range of 8.4 WAR on this list. The margin in (+/-) after each player's name represents how much above or below that 5.1 WAR average they were. To break things up a little bit I'll make a second post in the thread after the player listing which includes each team's W/L record thru the first and ninth spots plus a margin for each spot as we go along. NUMBER ONE PLAYERS 01. Aaron Judge NYY (+5.0 WAR) 679 PA | 204 wRC+ | -3.8 DEF | 10.1 WAR [last four years Judge is at 204 wRC+ | 37.3 WAR. Trout's best four year run was 170 wRC+ | 37.8 WAR to open his career. Last four years Ohtani is at 38.0 WAR combined hitting/pitching. Bonds was 232 wRC+ | 47.3 WAR. I audibly guffawed] 02. Cal Raleigh SEA (+4.1) 705 PA | 161 wRC+ | +16.3 DEF | 9.1 WAR [entering the season it was pretty tight between Raleigh (13.9 WAR from 2022-24), Adley Rutschman (13.8 WAR from 2022-24), and William Contreras (13.3 WAR from 2022-24) for best backstop in the bigs over the last three years, but Big Dumper plopped down a catcher season for the ages to set himself apart] 03. Bobby Witt Jr. KCR (+2.9) 687 PA | 130 wRC+ | +23.2 DEF | 8.0 WAR [maybe the biggest fielding in dispute guy out there with +35 FRV | -18 DRS swinging his career WAR by five wins from 26.7 at FG to 21.7 at BRef) 04. Shohei Ohtani LAD (+2.4) 727 PA | 172 wRC+ | -17.1 DEF | 7.5 WAR [also chipped in 47 IP with a nice 69 ERA- good for an extra 1.5 rWAR on the side. Crazy thing about Shohei is he hasn't double peaked yet. 2023 was his highest combined WAR with 3.8 rWAR and 6.6 DH WAR, 2022 was just behind but flipped with 6.2 rWAR and 3.6 DH WAR. Could still have one or two double barreled six / seven wins each as a pitcher and DH kind of season(s) still left in the tank] 05. Geraldo Perdomo ARI (+2.0) 720 PA | 138 wRC+ | +9.1 DEF | 7.1 WAR [on a team with Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte it was Perdomo who put up matching seven win seasons per both FG and Bref. Big offensive boost after hitting for an 85 wRC+ over his first 1,420 PA. xwOBA jumped to .355 after a .275 his first four seasons, and his .370 actual wOBA wasn't too out of line with the expected mark] 06. Trea Turner PHI (+1.6) 639 PA | 125 wRC+ | +17.3 DEF | 6.7 WAR [after posting -12 DRS | -11 FRV at SS from 2017-24 Trea had a popup good year with the glove at +2 DRS | +11 FRV in 2025. His +66.9 BSR on the bases since 2016 is almost twenty runs ahead of Jose Ramirez in second place at +47.5] 07. Jose Ramirez CLE (+1.2) 673 PA | 133 wRC+ | +4.6 DEF | 6.3 WAR [2025 was Jose's seventh Top Six finish in MVP voting. One of my favorite player comparisons illustrating the value of defense...Ramirez career is at 6,759 PA | 130 wRC+ | +52.7 BSR | +45.8 DEF | 57.7 WAR and is getting that future HOF label thrown around, and rightfully so. Another guy that debuted the same season is at 7,027 PA | 129 wRC+ | +49.7 BSR | -87.1 DEF | 45.5 WAR and most figure he'll top out at HoVG. As close as it gets in playing time, hitting, and base running but one guy was a positively regarded 3B defender and the other was a corner OF/DH...named Christian Yelich] 08. Francisco Lindor NYM (+1.2) 732 PA | 129 wRC+ | +9.2 DEF | 6.3 WAR [funny Ramirez and Lindor ended up right next to each other again. 2025 was Francisco's seventh Top Ten finish in MVP voting. Jeter was the last HOF SS elected in 2020, Lindor will probably be the next five years after whenever he retires, current contract runs through his age 37 season in 2031] 09. Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP (+1.0) 691 PA | 131 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 6.1 WAR [premier defensive RF with his +44 DRS | +25 FRV both tops at the nine in MLB over the last three years.] 10. Jeremy Pena HOU (+0.6) 543 PA | 135 wRC+ | +10.4 DEF | 5.7 WAR [big improvement at the plate versus a 99 wRC+ over his first 1,842 PA. his xwOBA jumped from .308 first three years to .330 so there was an improvement in contact quality, but his actual wOBA was .363 so there was probably some good fortune in there too] 11. Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC (+0.3) 647 PA | 109 wRC+ | +17.4 DEF | 5.4 WAR [my initial read on PCA was something like prime Kiermaier who went 1370 PA | 104 wRC+ | +45.6 DEF | 11.6 WAR from 2015-17. So far, so good there. From here will come down to how much development / upside is left at the plate] 12. George Springer TOR (+0.1) 586 PA | 166 wRC+ | -17.8 DEF | 5.2 WAR [nice bounce back after a 99 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR over his past two years] 13. Byron Buxton MIN (-0.1) 542 PA | 136 wRC+ | -1.4 DEF | 5.0 WAR [going back to 2017 Buxton's 2,948 PA rank 133rd in MLB, his 24.9 WAR over that same stretch ranks 36th. Some of the guys in his immediate vicinity include Tatis Jr. (2,939 PA | 26.5 WAR), Willy Adames (4,296 PA | 25.5 WAR), Kyle Tucker (3,158 PA | 25.4 WAR), and Yordan Alvarez (2,867 PA | 23.7 WAR)] 14. Gunnar Henderson BAL (-0.3) 651 PA | 120 wRC+ | +1.7 DEF | 4.8 WAR [looked a lot more like the 2023 version (122 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) than the 2024 version (154 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR) which probably shouldn't be a surprise since the only SS to put up back to back 150 wRC+ eight win seasons are ARod, Ripken, Banks and Honus] 15. Matt Olson ATL (-0.4) 724 PA | 136 wRC+ | -4.2 DEF | 4.7 WAR [fourth straight season with 162 games played running his consecutive streak to 782 going back to May of 2021. Only needs to play non stop into his age 43 season to catch Cal] 16. Junior Caminero TBR (-0.5) 653 PA | 129 wRC+ | -0.4 DEF | 4.6 WAR [the 45 HR Caminero hit in his age 21 season were the 2nd most in MLB history for a newly legal drinker behind only 1953 inaugural Milwaukee season Eddie Mathews. Junior's HR splits were pretty even with 22 at the spring training park and 23 on the road, but his BABIP splits were pretty wild at .324 in the spring training park versus .197 on the road] 17. Nick Kurtz ATH (-0.5) 489 PA | 170 wRC+ | -12.1 DEF | 4.6 WAR [THE HORROR...THE HORROR...of Sacramento] 18. Brice Turang MIL (-0.7) 659 PA | 124 wRC+ | 0.1 DEF | 4.4 WAR [big step with the bat up from a 77 wRC+ over his first 1,067 PA. wasn't a super big overachiever on the StatCast side with a .346 actual wOBA compared to a .334 xwOBA. also, big time fielding in dispute with 0 FRV | 4.4 WAR at FG versus +7 DRS | 5.6 WAR at BREF. For his career it is +7 FRV | +41 DRS] 19. Elly De La Cruz CIN (-0.8) 699 PA | 109 wRC+ | +2.7 DEF | 4.3 WAR [pretty crazy to see Turang one spot above with a considerably better batting line than ELDC. Not quite as big a gap as Brice, but also a fielding in dispute candidate with +8 FRV | -12 DRS for his career] 20. Wyatt Langford TEX (-1.0) 573 PA | 118 wRC+ | +6.2 DEF | 4.1 WAR [kinda fun comp for Jackson Chourio after two seasons...WAR (7.1 to 6.9), wRC+ (115 each) and base running (+5.9 to +7.0) are about as close as it gets. Jackson hits (110 to 102 AVG+), and slugs (123 to 111 ISO+) better while striking out less (94 to 104 K%+), but Wyatt comes out way ahead on walks (135 to 71 BB%+) and defense (+30 DRS | +14 FRV to +8 both DRS | FRV). Of course Chourio is two years four months younger too] 21. Dillon Dingler DET (-1.0) 469 PA | 109 wRC+ | +18.8 DEF | 4.1 WAR [people talk a lot about Mark Wahlberg in Boogie Nights, but I Heart Huckabees is probably my personal favourite of his] 22. Willy Adames SFG (-1.1) 686 PA | 108 wRC+ | +9.6 DEF | 4.0 WAR [entering 2025 Willy had a career 110 wRC+ and averaged 4.1 WAR per 686 PA] 23. Kyle Stowers MIA (-1.1) 457 PA | 149 wRC+ | -3.7 DEF | 4.0 WAR [breakout age 27 season for the corner OF acquired by the Marlins from BAL for Trevor Rogers. Mashed righties to the tune of a 165 wRC+ and has a lot of red on his StatCast page] 24. Jarren Duran BOS (-1.2) 696 PA | 111 wRC+ | -2.1 DEF | 3.9 WAR [lots to like with a 121 wRC+ | +22.7 BSR | 13.2 WAR over the last three years, but 131 wRC+ at home to 112 wRC+ on the road over those three seasons implies a little Fenway assist, and he's got a pretty big platoon split on top of that with a 138 wRC+ vs RHP but only a 78 wRC+ vs LHP] 25. Masyn Winn STL (-1.6) 537 PA | 91 wRC+ | +20.1 DEF | 3.5 WAR [NL Gold Glover at SS, not all that different than what Joey Ortiz would look like if he hit for a 91 wRC+ instead of a 67 wRC+ (he has an 86 wRC+ for his Brewers career)] 26. Hunter Goodman COL (-1.7) 579 PA | 118 wRC+ | +4.2 DEF | 3.4 WAR [fourth round pick by the Rockies back in 2021 who hit 31 HR (13 at Coors vs 18 on the road) in his first full season as a catcher.] 27. James Wood WAS (-1.8) 689 PA | 127 wRC+ | -12.6 DEF | 3.3 WAR [big time and literally big prospect acquired by the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Has hit lefties pretty well in his career with his 112 wRC+ vs southpaws 10th among 55 lefties to get at least 200 PA against fellow southpaws the last two years. -6 DRS and -11 FRV is a not very promising start to his fielding career] 28. Zach Neto LAA (-2.0) 554 PA | 116 wRC+ | -1.6 DEF | 3.1 WAR [fielding in dispute, -4 FRV | 3.1 WAR at FG versus +13 DRS | 5.1 WAR at BRef in 2025. Career is -5 FRV | +26 DRS] 29. Colson Montgomery CHW (-2.4) 284 PA | 129 wRC+ | +7.0 DEF | 2.7 WAR [nice half season debut for the White Sox first rounder in 2021. Showed big time power with a .290 ISO but also struck out at a 29.2% clip] 30. Spencer Horwitz PIT (-3.4) 411 PA | 119 wRC+ | -5.7 DEF | 1.7 WAR [perfectly cromulent MLB hitter, not an encouraging sign that ownership is making a good faith effort to maximize the Skenes Window when this ends up being your best position player in his first CY season though. The 9th and 10th position players on the Blue Jays leaderboard had 1.8 WAR each]

I’m not an Athletic subscriber, are there any direct quotes from Attanasio, Arnold or anyone else relevant? Or is it more speculation based on intel from unnamed sources?

Good call, obviously Freddy will need to stay healthy one more season, and he’ll be one year older than Cease when he hits FA, but here’s how his body of work compares… 2021-25 Freddy (738 IP | 27th) (ranks among 85 pitchers min. 500 IP) 79 ERA- (12th) | 87 FIP- (24th) | -0.34 ERA/FIP (11th) 132 K%+ (4th) | 106 BB%+ (77th) | 97 HR9+ (40th) 81 AVG+ (1st) | 109 LOB%+ (5th) 18.7 rWAR (8th) | 14.8 fWAR (19th) Cease has the advantage in durability and HR prevention, but Freddy is thee literal hardest guy to get a hit off of and he kills Cease on strand rate too which helps his ERA play well below his FIP compared to Cease whose run prevention doesn’t live up to his peripherals.

Yeah, most likely outcome right now seems like we’ll probably stand pat, make some typical small moves around the edges, and bring back a team that should win ninety some games next year. Maybe sign a lower dollar FA, or deal some of the prospect / young player depth for the ever elusive “big bat”, but that feels like more of a longshot. Contrast that with PHI like you mentioned who could lose Schwarber, Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, etc in FA but just turn around and sign Kyle Tucker & Framber Valdez instead…it’s just two different worlds. I’d love it if the players & owners could figure out a way to bring those worlds closer together (not counting on it by any means though) so until then I’ll keep enjoying the Brewers making the most of their disadvantaged situation. Watching young dudes we’ve developed or acquired come up, make an impact, and grow as players sounds way more fun to me than signing some dude(s) for hundreds of millions and hoping (t)he(y) doesn’t break down.