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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Jesus MadeLuis PenaJeferson QueroRobert GasserLogan HendersonCooper PrattMarco DingesLuke AdamsAndrew FischerBraylon PayneLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiColeman CrowTyson HardinBishop LetsonEthan DorchiesJosh KnothBryce MeccageJD ThompsonCraig Yoho Not a whole lot of movement for me from last vote. Bumped Quero / Gasser a couple spots up in the #3 to #5 already some MLB / on the cusp tier due to getting healthier. Slid Adamczewski up to the bottom of the #6 to #12 position player tier with his return from injury. Pitchers from #13 to #20 are more or less ordered by proximity / health status with the new guy and reliever Yoho at the end. Big insert for me from just outside to the Top 20 up to #11 is Luis Lara though. Here are a pair of Biloxi stat groupings as of August 27... 259/368/345 (116 wRC+) 13.9 BB% | 15.7 K% 35 SB / 6 CS 249/354/365 (115 wRC+) 12.8 BB% | 15.1 K% 28 SB / 5 CS Pretty dang close. Pratt has shown a little more pop (.116 vs .086 ISO), is a SS, and has a bigger frame to dream on some more future power at some point so he's no doubt the better prospect of the two, but with Lara keeping pace from a production standpoint while being a few months younger and playing a top end CF himself felt like he had earned the boost. Has improved each of his walk rate (8.4% to 13.9%), BABIP (.287 to .313), and SB success rate (76.3% to 85.4%) from last year in Wisco while maintaining an identical 15.7% K rate.
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9 W - 9 L (with a +4 run differential) so far on the Dreaded Stretch. We had an 8.0 game division lead entering, and a 6.5 game division lead today. According to FanGraphs our odds of securing a bye (87.8%) and winning the division (91.1%) entering the stretch have increased to 94.6% and 96.0% as of today. The Brewers 21 W - 9 L record in August was 2.5 games better than anyone else in MLB for the month. Is it safe to say the Brewers survived the Dreaded Stretch and maybe even navigated the trade deadline just fine, or am I in a game thread?
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Checking the MiLB leaderboard at FanGraphs it looks like Manuel Rodriguez is one of only eight pitchers to have thrown at least 150 IP between their age 18-19 seasons these last two years. If you do click the link you'll also notice the only player to have hit 150 IP these last two years between their age 17-18 seasons, Melvin Hernandez. Back to Manuel Rodriguez, his 6.38 K/BB ratio is 3rd best on that entire 449 pitcher leaderboard (regardless of age) with his 3.5 BB% coming in at the 2nd lowest and his 0.99 WHIP 4th lowest. Back to Melvin Hernandez, his 0.16 HR/9 is thee very lowest on that leaderboard and his 5.2 BB% is 12th lowest, though playing at the lowest levels is surely a factor in that HR9 especially, but either way pretty impressive stuff. Some other high Brewers rankings on the board include Misio (.168 AVG | 1st), Logan Henderson (1.01 WHIP | 6th and 4.90 K/BB | 10th), and KC Hunt (2.88 xFIP | 6th). If we lower the threshold to min. 100 IP that's enough for Yoho to sneak in at 0.00 HR9 (1st) | 0.98 ERA (1st) | 1.94 FIP (2nd) | 37.7 K% (2nd) | .152 AVG (3rd) | 0.97 WHIP (7th).
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- garrett stallings
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Yeah, there's this old saying in baseball that goes something like every team wins a third of their games and loses a third of their games so it's really only a 54 game season. Considering the Brewers will still be the only team in baseball with 54 losses or fewer until at least Wednesday of next week they are still way ahead of the curve.
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Haase has been DFA’d twice as a Brewer and none of the other 29 organizations claimed him either time. Don’t need a magnifying glass to read between those lines. The only team that thought Haase was worth a 40 man spot the last two years thinks that Jansen is better. Given their history with player evaluation I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
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Misc. Minor League Alumni News & Notes - 2025 Version
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Cam Devanney getting called up by the Pirates. MLBTR article notes that he was called up for a brief spell with the Royals earlier this year but did not get into a game. -
Still dominating AAA, among 194 pitchers in the International League with at least 40 IP his 1.04 ERA is the lowest and his 2.64 FIP is 4th lowest. He’s also the only pitcher in the International League with at least 40 IP not to allow an HR all year. Hasn’t shown enough command to stick in his MLB looks though. Maybe he gets another shot in September.
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Yeah, in a macro sense I tend to think of defensive metrics along the same line as reliever stats in terms of volatility. The first issue seems to be just how much defense is worth to begin with. Looking at 2023 to present DRS and FRV both agree that the Brewers have been the second best defensive team in baseball, but have they saved 156 runs (DRS) or 87 runs (FRV)? That is a pretty big difference. DRS thinks from 2023 to present the range of defensive value on a team level goes from +208 (TOR) down to -176 (CHW), but FRV has a much narrower scope at +88 down to -109 (also TOR and CHW). Anecdotally it feels like the two systems tend to align more on outfielders and corner infielders, but have more divergent opinions on middle infielders. Brewers with at least 1,000 innings since 2023... 2B Turang (+44 DRS | -5 FRV) SS Adames (-8 DRS | +12 FRV) 1B Hoskins (-1 DRS | -2 FRV) 3B Ortiz (+8 DRS | +8 FRV) SS Ortiz (-2 DRS | +8 FRV) OF Frelick (+25 DRS | +17 FRV) OF Chourio (+10 DRS | +10 FRV) OF Yelich (-6 DRS | -9 FRV) OF Perkins (+19 DRS | +18 FRV) OF Wiemer (+7 DRS | +9 FRV)
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Here are White's approximate values from PFR for 1986-92 with PHI then 1993-98 with GB... PHI: 19, 15, 19, 18, 17, 19, 15 GB: 15, 15, 15, 18, 15, 16 He was diminished from his peak as a younger man, sure, but hardly a shell. He's the oldest DPOY winner ever at age 37 in 1998 and was 1st or 2nd team All Pro each of his six years with the Packers so he was playing at a top level right up until the end. Would love it if Parsons topped Reggie's 68.5 sacks and 94 AV over six years with the Packers, but that is a pretty tall ask. Anchor a defense that wins one SB and he'd put himself right there with Woodson (DPOY, 4 of 7 years 1st or 2nd team AP, 74 AV) for me, but I give Reggie extra credit for the intangibles & culture change he helped kick off so Parsons would pretty much need to anchor two SB winning defenses for me to put him over Reggie in terms of impact.
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Yeah, Reggie got us to two Super Bowls, anchored defenses that ranked 4th, 4th, 1st, and 5th in points allowed over a four year stretch, and capped it off with a DPOY (plus all the intangibles). Gonna be hard for anyone to match that impact but if Parsons can help get the Pack back to the SB that’d be a good start.
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DRS was definitely lower on Ortiz at SS earlier in the year. Believe he was down around -5 or -7 at one point but it has been creeping up as the season has gone on. Wonder if part of that is a function of how high DRS is on Turang? Turang 2024 +22 DRS | +4 FRV Adames 2024 -16 DRS | 0 FRV Turang 2025 +9 DRS | -1 FRV Ortiz 2025 -2 DRS | +8 FRV In 2024 DRS thought the Brewers were +6 aggregate at SS/2B compared to +4 aggregate by FRV, pretty close on the back end just way different accounting to get there. So far this year both systems are +7 aggregate, but again with different accounting. Agree that Ortiz is a clearly better fielder than Mona. FanGraphs uses FRV in their WAR calcs and with positional adjustment included they have Ortiz as the 14th most valuable defender in MLB over the last two years at +22.8 DEF. Kinda interesting that the two guys on either side of him - Andres Gimenez (+23.4 DEF) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (+22.4 DEF) - signed $106.5M and $70M extensions respectively. By no means suggesting the Brewers do the same with Joey, but does a pretty good job illustrating how valuable his defense is.
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Last year he had a 23 ERA- | 33 FIP- over 57 IP with most of that dominance coming in Wisco and Biloxi where he ran K rates north of 40%. This year he’s at a 19 ERA- | 56 FIP- all at Nashville. Out of 190 International League pitchers with at least 40 IP he has the lowest ERA and 3rd lowest FIP entering tonight. Thats still pretty elite stuff. With the ER surrendered tonight he has 34 zeroes and five 1 ER games in his 39 AAA outings.
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Yeah, went back and checked the game thread from 08/01 and no one mentioned him coming off the field holding his elbow or anything ominous like we’ve seen too many times before, so that’s good. Also listed as active on his MiLB player page (versus being placed on the IL), so I’ll take that as a good sign too. Hopefully just a planned shutdown like you alluded to or a minor tweak of some kind.
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Ortiz 3B (1115 innings) +9 DRS | +8 FRV Mona 3B (662 innings) +5 DRS | -1 FRV Ortiz SS (1102 innings) -1 DRS | +8 FRV Mona SS (165 innings) -2 DRS | 0 FRV Outside of DRS at 3B they haven't really graded out too similarly. DRS at SS is close too, but Ortiz has over six times the innings that Mona does and DRS at SS also appears to be the outlier on Ortiz's advanced metrics.
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Maybe not quite Parsons level, but Jacobs and McKinney were pretty impactful signings just last year.
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My initial instinct was yes because they had been promoted together to Carolina and then Wisconsin. Made's performance has been on a whole other level than Pena since getting to Wisco though so I could see Made starting in Biloxi straightaway while Pena repeats Wisco to open the year with a potential midseason promotion to Biloxi if his performance merits it. Believe the Shuckers have one extra week of play after the T-Rats wrap things up, so could get a little bit of a clue if one or both get bumped up for that last week (& playoffs) similar to Chourio in 2022.
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The Brewers' Best-Hitting Prospect Isn't Who You Think
sveumrules replied to Steven's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Adamczewsski has Luke Adams beat on wRC+ over the last two years (& alphabetically for whatever that is or isn't worth in tie breaker scenarios), but Luke has been raking for an extra year with his 148 wRC+ since 2023 tied with Xavier Isaac for the best mark in all of MiLB (min. 1000 PA) over the last three years. Not bad having two of the better hitters statistically in MiLB over the last couple two tree years and the system is so deep that they are both in the fringe Top Ten-ish sort of range. -
Luis Pena outproduced Jesus Made in the DSL (173 to 167 wRC+) and with Carolina (139 to 122 wRC+), but Made's blazing 81 PA of 175 wRC+ with Wisco (compared to only a 71 wRC+ over 74 PA for Pena) has inched Jesus just ahead in their respective career lines... 297/406/462 (143 wRC+) 14.8 BB% | 18.1 K% 70 SB / 15 CS 318/386/491 (141 wRC+) 8.6 BB% | 13.2 K% 82 SB / 11 CS Just for fun, here is Chourio over his first two years, with the caveat that his overall numbers are dragged down a bit by his six games at AA to end 2022 where he put up a -30 wRC+ and 42.3 K% over those 26 PA... 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% 24 SB / 7 CS
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2026 International Free Agent Market
sveumrules replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
An interesting tool set is great and all, but there are 87 Brewers with at least 100 PA on the island since 2021. Maybe big bonus guys like Pena (173 wRC+), Made (167 wRC+), and Chourio (130 wRC+) have skewed expectations somewhat, but even non-nuclear big bonus prospects like Yophery (124 wRC+), Di Turi (117 wRC+), and Quintana (110 wRC+) still managed above average batting lines in the DSL. Not to mention all the low bonus guys like Ortuno (157 wRC+), Anderson (147 wRC+). Ibarguen (139 wRC+), Nadal (131 wRC+), Rangel (130 wRC+), Polanco (129 wRC+), Juan Martinez (125 wRC+), et cetera that came out of nowhere to put up big lines. Fenelon's 95 wRC+ ranked 45th on that list, below even little Luis Lara with a 98 wRC+ in his DSL year. Antunez (79 wRC+ | 71st) and Acosta (77 wRC+ | 72nd) are waaay down there, especially for seven figure guys. Hard to classify their professional debuts as anything but disappointing in the context of the talent the DSL Academy has turned out of late. Doesn't mean they are doomed forever to irrelevance, just that their initial performance was below established standards compared to recent performances by similarly heralded (or even much less heralded prospects).

