sveumrules

Yeah, think that he and Spencer Horwitz will be the primary 1B/DH in some combination. Lowe's 1,015 innings at 2B last year were his most since 2021 (1,093 innings) and his defensive metrics absolutely tanked... 2018-24 (3,951 innings) -9 DRS | -7 FRV 2025 (1,015 innings) -14 DRS | -9 FRV

Yeah, looks like the Rays are in a little re-boot phase here. From 2008-13 they won the second most games in MLB and made the playoffs four of six years. Followed that up with a stretch from 2014-17 where they didn't make the playoffs or finish over .500 at all. Then from 2018-23 they made the playoffs five of six years winning the 4th most games in MLB. Last two years have been 80 and 77 wins.

I'm by no means claiming Doc is some kind of coaching savant, but his two best players have been on the floor together for 46 minutes (not even one whole game) all season so I guess I'll just say I don't think the Bucks poor record is entirely a result of whatever coaching acumen one believes he does or doesn't possess. The Bucks primary four man combo of Giannis | Turner | Green | Rollins has been +9.1 points per 100 possessions in 274 minutes on the floor together this year. Throw Porter Jr. in there as the fifth and it jumps to +25.9 pts per 100 possessions, though in only 28 minutes of court time together on account of all the injuries.

For whatever it is or isn't worth Baseball Trade Values has them at... Soderstrom (34.2) Pratt (24.1) Patrick (15)

I just brought up Mitchell as a lotto ticket throw in because I figured one of Henderson/Patrick plus Pratt would be just about enough value on their own. If the A's were to deal Soderstrom (I don't think they have any real interest in doing so) their next OF up would be... Carlos Cortes [over 880 PA at AAA from 2022-24 Carlos put up an 87 wRC+. Over 314 PA at AAA in 2025 he jumped to a 138 wRC+ before his small sample MLB debut with 99 PA of 132 wRC+ at age 28. Was way out over his skis though with an actual .363 wOBA versus a .318 xwOBA] or... Colby Thomas [698 PA of 108 wRC+ with a 28.4 K% at AAA from 2024-25 before his 132 PA of 82 wRC+ with a 37.1 K% in his MLB call up] A healthy Garrett Mitchell is an upgrade over both of them. Obviously his health is a huge question mark, but that is why he'd just be a lotto ticket throw in to backfill Soderstrom's spot.

I'd guess the A's would ask for one of Henderson or Patrick (would be extra funny since we got him from the A's for Abraham Toro to begin with) as an MLB ready rotation piece, Pratt to be their future SS if Jacob Wilson's metrics don't improve (-14 DRS | -4 FRV so far), and Garrett Mitchell as the throw in lotto ticket to replace Soderstrom in the near term.

Yeah, between his scouting report kind of fitting the Brewers mold and being more of a late blooming guy from KBO versus the more high profile guys from Japan, thought he could maybe fit into that "Nori Aoki Zone" of the rare international free agent then ends up in Milwaukee.

Only 159 PA, but with a 3.8 BB% and 38.4 K% in his MLB debut it's more like Keon Broxton vibes. Walk rate was better in the minors at 11.9% over 1,332 PA, but the K rate was still downright scary at an even 30%.

From reading his scouting reports in the MLBTR, FanGraphs and ESPN Top 50 Free Agent articles it doesn't sound like he could play 3B up to the Brewers run prevention standards. Contract plus posting fee is likely to end up over $100M which is probably a little rich for the Brewers tastes, especially if he really is more of a 1B/DH type. If the Brewers are in on anyone from the international market this winter Sung-moon Song from the KBO sounds like their kind of guy and will likely be way more affordable. Some snippets from his FG scouting report... Pre-2022, Song didn't have a full season of at-bats to his name. Pre-2024, he hadn't shown anything beyond threadbare power. Now noticeably stronger and loading into his back hip with reckless abandon, the 29-year-old is coming off back-to-back .900-plus OPS seasons in the KBO and launched a career-high 26 home runs in 2025 to prop up a credible case that his bat can profile at third base in MLB. Song has a surfeit of supplementary skills that lessen the pressure on his offensive production. While he defaults to sitting back on choppers and leaning on his plus throwing arm at third base, Song is graceful and fluid on the run, accurate at different arm angles or when throwing off one leg, and is armed with a reliable play clock. An above-average runner, Song’s basethieving has broken out over the last two years alongside his power, going 46 for 48 on steals since 2024. With his defense, baserunning, and devotion to accessing his plus raw pop, Song seems better insulated from busting than some more accomplished and toolsier Pacific Rim hitters coming stateside.

After the #5 Players came out at an appropriately round 2.0 WAR average was kind of hoping that the #10 players would average out to a perfectly odd 0.5 WAR, but alas, the ten players who were tenth on their respective teams by FanGraphs totaled exactly 18.0 WAR for an average of 0.6 WAR each. Value has really tapered off at this point with only four one win players on this list and only two more (both on the Blue Jays) left un-accounted for. One last update remains for players #11 thru the end of each team's roster along with the final Team Depth Project Standings. NUMBER TEN PLAYERS 01. Myles Straw TOR (+1.2) 299 PA | 91 wRC+ | +6.8 DEF | 1.8 WAR [has ran (+20.7 BSR is 13th since 2019) and fielded (+46 DRS | 7th and +38 FRV | 8th since 2019) his way to 7.5 career WAR despite 2279 PA of 80 wRC+] 02. Jahmai Jones DET (+0.5) 150 PA | 159 wRC+ | -5.9 DEF | 1.1 WAR [small sample warrior, but he had a .396 xwOBA under the hood and his 131 wRC+ over the last three years is enough to make him a top dozen AAA hitter over that stretch (min. 700 PA)] 03. Rob Refsnyder BOS (+0.4) 209 PA | 128 wRC+ | -3.8 DEF | 1.0 WAR [short side platoon king. Among 114 batters with at least 500 PA against LHP since 2022 Rob ranks 6th with a 155 wRC+] 04. Austin Martin MIN (+0.4) 181 PA | 113 wRC+ | -0.2 DEF | 1.0 WAR [former #5 overall pick acquired from TOR for Jose Berrios at the 2021 deadline. Saw a nice increase from a .297 xwOBA in his 2024 debut to a .342 xwOBA in 2025. Small samples abound but defense also improved from -13 DRS | -7 FRV in 2024 to +2 DRS | 0 FRV in 2025] 05. Rhys Hoskins MIL (+0.3) 328 PA | 109 wRC+ | -4.5 DEF | 0.9 WAR [got off to a good start in 2024 with a 127 wRC+ over his first 156 PA with the Brewers before straining his hamstring, but never quite got it back after that. Probably looking at something like the $7M deal Josh Bell signed in FA] 06. Paul Goldschmidt NYY (+0.2) 534 PA | 103 wRC+ | -10.3 DEF | 0.8 WAR [has fallen off to a 102 wRC+ over these last two seasons, but could still be useful as a lefty masher with a 152 wRC+ vs LHP from 2024-25 that isn't too far off his MLB best 173 wRC+ vs LHP from 2012 to 2023] 07. Victor Caratini HOU (+0.2) 386 PA | 104 wRC+ | -4.9 DEF | 0.8 WAR [before the Brewers: 1,759 innings of -4 DRS | -5.0 FRM | -9 FRV. Two years with Brewers plus first Astros season: 1,679 innings of +5 DRS | +13.3 FRM | +13 FRV. Last year: 418 innings of -4 DRS | +5.7 FRM | +1 FRV. Even with the defensive regression probably the 2nd best C in FA after JTR] 08. Jeremiah Jackson BAL (+0.2) 183 PA | 117 wRC+ | -1.1 DEF | 0.8 WAR [after running a 28.1 K% and 103 wRC+ over his first 2,033 minor league PA thru 2024, ripped off a 14.2 K% and 136 wRC+ between AA/AAA in 2025 before his MLB call up] 09. Miguel Amaya CHC (+0.2) 103 PA | 124 wRC+ | +2.1 DEF | 0.8 WAR [small sample surface level improvement at the plate after 591 PA of 86 wRC+ to open his career, but xwOBA actually declined from .310 down to .294 so likely some good fortune in there] 10. Nick Allen ATL (+0.1) 416 PA | 53 wRC+ | +17.0 DEF | 0.7 WAR [if you thought Joey Ortiz was a no hit all field SS, check out Nick Allen over here. Recently traded to HOU for Mauricio Dubon] 11. Pavin Smith ARI (+0.1) 288 PA | 123 wRC+ | -8.6 DEF | 0.7 WAR [after 1,094 PA of 91 wRC+ to open his career, has hit for a 130 wRC+ over 446 PA these last two years. Less bad at 1B (-4 DRS | -2 FRV in 896 innings) than the outfield (-16 DRS | -10 FRV in 1,461 innings)] 12. Ronny Mauricio NYM (+0.1) 184 PA | 88 wRC+ | +2.8 DEF | 0.7 WAR [longtime Top 100 guy with 11 different placements from BA, MLB and BPro between 2019 and 2024. Despite all the prospect love has never actually hit all that well in the minors with a career 270/313/445 (104 wRC+) and paltry 5.4 BB% over 2,350 PA. Torn ACL pushed his MLB debut back a year] 13. Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN (+0.1) 178 PA | 82 wRC+ | +6.0 DEF | 0.7 WAR [acquired from PIT at the deadline, see #7 Player List] 14. Teoscar Hernandez LAD (even) 546 PA | 102 wRC+ | -12.2 DEF | 0.6 WAR [underwhelming regular season but managed five postseason dingerz on the Dodgers repeat World Series run] 15. Max Kepler PHI (even) 474 PA | 90 wRC+ | -4.6 DEF | 0.6 WAR [after hitting for a 103 wRC+ and averaging 4.0 WAR per 873 PA from 2016-23, Max has put up a 91 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR over his last two years and 873 PA] 16. Ryan O'Hearn SDP (even) 183 PA | 112 wRC+ | -2.9 DEF | 0.6 WAR [acquired from BAL at the deadline. Pretty even splits with a 122 wRC+ vs RHP last three years to go along with a 116 wRC+ vs LHP. Slightly less bad at 1B (-10 DRS | +2 FRV in 2886 innings) than in the OF (-10 DRS | -4 FRV in 733 innings)] 17. Nick Fortes MIA (even) 141 PA | 76 wRC+ | +5.6 DEF | 0.6 WAR [traded to Rays at deadline. Among 59 players with at least 500 PA behind the dish since 2022 Fortes comes in at 1,066 PA (22nd) | 75 wRC+ (45th) | +42.4 DEF (9th) | 4.5 WAR (26th)] 18. Jose Fermin STL (even) 70 PA | 129 wRC+ | +1.7 DEF | 0.6 WAR [has 614 PA of 141 wRC+ over the last three years in AAA, but only a 76 wRC+ over 210 scattered MLB PA] 19. Ben Williamson SEA (-0.2) 295 PA | 76 wRC+ | +1.8 DEF | 0.4 WAR [didn't hit much in his MLB debut, but DRS thought his defense lived up to the scouting reports with a +8 grade in half a season of games. StatCast was less enthusiastic with an even zero FRV rating] 20. Miguel Andujar ATH (-0.2) 231 PA | 108 wRC+ | -5.6 DEF | 0.4 WAR [had 606 PA of 129 wRC+ in his 2018 full season debut, after being traded to CIN at the deadline ended up with 341 PA of 125 wRC+ in 2025. Over the five years in between put up 825 PA of 80 wRC+] 21. Dominic Smith SFG (-0.2) 225 PA | 111 wRC+ | -6.3 DEF | 0.4 WAR [hey look, it's another former big time Big Apple prospect. Enters free agency with 2491 PA of 98 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR or his career] 22. Rowdy Tellez TEX (-0.2) 127 PA | 115 wRC+ | -1.5 DEF | 0.4 WAR [out of 153 players with at least 2,500 PA since 2018 Rowdy comes in 152nd with 0.1 WAR. The guy in 153rd with a dead nuts even 0.0 WAR is...Andrew Vaughn] 23. Nick Fortes TBR (-0.2) 101 PA | 87 wRC+ | +1.9 DEF | 0.4 WAR [acquired at deadline from Marlins, see above] 24. Tyler Tolbert KCR (-0.3) 57 PA | 92 wRC+ | -0.8 DEF | 0.3 WAR [true utility guy that appeared in 64 games but only started twelve while playing every position besides 1B/C during his first call up after 2,349 PA in the minor leagues] 25. Dominic Fletcher CHW (-0.3) 34 PA | 98 wRC+ | +2.0 DEF | 0.3 WAR [among 89 players with at least 400 innings in RF since 2023, Dominic comes in at 493 innings (71st) with +14 DRS (7th) and +7 FRV (6th)] 26. Amed Rosario WAS (-0.4) 158 PA | 104 wRC+ | -5.1 DEF | 0.2 WAR [traded to NYY at deadline. Can't field anywhere with a combined -58 DRS | -57 FRV for his career, but has hit LHP to a 123 wRC+ clip over 1,010 PA going back to 2019. Yankees re-signed him for $2.5M] 27. CJ Kayfus CLE (-0.4) 138 PA | 96 wRC+ | -4.1 DEF | 0.2 WAR [the only minor leaguer with at least 800 PA and a wRC+ higher than Kayfus's 157 mark over the last three years is Tigers uber-prospect Kevin McGonigle with a 163 wRC+] 28. Adam Frazier PIT (-0.5) 262 PA | 82 wRC+ | +0.1 DEF | 0.1 WAR [traded to KCR at deadline, see #7 Players List] 29. Tim Anderson LAA (-0.5) 90 PA | 41 wRC+ | +4.3 DEF | 0.1 WAR [from 2019-22 Anderson's .376 BABIP and .318 batting average were both tops in MLB en route to a 123 wRC+. Since then he has 855 PA of .316 BABIP and .232 batting average en route to a 49 wRC+] 30. Kyle Karros COL (-0.6) 156 PA | 56 wRC+ | +3.9 DEF | 0.0 WAR [son of Eric hit fine at A+ (539 PA of 138 wRC+) and AA (234 PA of 149 wRC+), but was probably called up a little prematurely with only a 106 wRC+ over 68 PA in AAA before his promotion to Denver]

NUMBER NINE PLAYERS

Yeah, I thought he seemed in line for the classic one year, seven-ish million dollars kind of contract for sure. MLBTR and FanGraphs didn't have Adrian ranked in their Top 50 FA, but ESPN had him at #39 for two years and $20M, so I guess we know which list the Giants front office is using. Ended up with a career best season at 125 IP of 80 ERA- | 89 FIP-, but the shape of that production was somewhat concerning with 68.2 IP of 51 ERA- | 77 FIP- over 11 starts with the White Sox to begin the year, but 56.1 IP of 116 ERA- | 103 FIP- over his final 10 starts with the Rays after the deadline. Kind of crazy a guy who has never started 30 games or reached 150 IP in a season is apparently considered a durable innings eating #4 starter nowadays, but I guess that's just indicative of the current pitching hellscape.

What year did the Washington Generals win the most games during the basketball season? Or win their division three straight times or five out of eight years? There are like three or four tiers of competitiveness between the status quo Brewers (who have won the 2nd most games in MLB over the last three seasons) and the actual patsy teams in MLB like the Rockies, White Sox, and Pirates (or the Brewers of circa 1984-2004).

In 2025 Brewers OF were 5th in MLB with 10.4 WAR, in 2024 they were 4th in MLB with 10.8 WAR, that combined 21.2 WAR is 5th in MLB over those two years with a three win drop off down to ARI in 6th at 18.2 WAR. It hasn't really been a star studded affair. Their best OF over those two seasons unsurprisingly have been Jackson Chourio with 6.8 WAR (13th), followed by Sal Frelick (5.1 WAR | 23rd). Really good, some might even say great (especially considering Chourio's age and doubts about Sal having enough bat for a corner), but not really Stars. Their third best OF the last two years? Christian Yelich. His 280 PA on the grass is only 5th on the team, but he has hit for a 156 wRC+ when playing OF good for 2.7 WAR (53rd on that above linked leaderboard). After that it's Collins (2.4 WAR | 60th), Perkins (2.0 WAR | 71st), and Mitchell (1.8 WAR | 77th). Bauers has also raked to the tune of a 144 wRC+ over his 114 PA as an OF these last two years good for 0.9 WAR (107th). Baddoo, Brandon, Berroa? They are all fine 5th/6th OF that fit the Brewers run prevention scheme. Akil might even have an outside shot of pulling off his own out of nowhere two win season. It's the fourth B though that might have the best chance of pulling his own Collins this year. Let's see, Isaac was a LF only guy, who doesn't have the best wheels but managed to be a positive base runner anyway, and built his offensive game mostly around being overly passive in the box...sounds kind of like Tyler Black? Who's still only 25, two years younger than Collins was last year. And then there's the guy who probably has the best chance of being a long term piece with the club over the next half decade plus just waiting in AAA. That one who somewhat quietly went for 257/369/343 (116 wRC+) with a 14.1 BB% | 16.2 K% as a 20 year old in the Southern League with plus CF defense. If Cooper Pratt is a Top 100 guy hitting for 238/343/348 (107 wRC+) with a 12.7 BB% | 15.2 K% on the same team at the same age, it seems to me that Luis Lara is maybe flying under the radar a little bit. Can't be too many teams that will have an OF of that calibre waiting in AAA that isn't even on the 40 Man yet. The Brewers depth is just fine. What they are lacking is a True Star (maybe third time's the charm for Chourio this year) or just one more dependable starter ala Sal. Still plenty of offseason (and ammunition to get a deal done) if the right opportunity is out there.

They gave Kyle Higashioka a similar deal last year at two years and $13.5M. If the two of them can approximate what they did last year behind the plate - 256 PA of 97 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR for Kyle plus 325 PA of 106 wRC+ for 1.4 WAR from Danny - that would buy them an extra win or so over what they got from their catchers in 2025.

Looks like Danny Jansen signed with the Rangers for two years and $14.5M. Eric Haase remains unsigned from what I can gather.

With the number eight players now done, we have made it all the way through the lineup. Looks like the thirty players who finished 8th on their team by FanGraphs WAR in 2025 totaled 31.4 WAR for an average that just barely rounds down to 1.0 WAR each. To Recap: Average values to this point are...#1 (5.1 WAR), #2 (3.6 WAR), #3 (2.7 WAR), #4 (2.3 WAR), #5 (2.0 WAR), #6 (1.6 WAR), #7 (1.3 WAR), #8 (1.0 WAR), and #9 (0.8 WAR). Will do one more post comparing the individual #10 players, then group players from #11 thru the end of each team's roster together in one final post. For now I've just been numerically updating the Team Depth Project Standings below with each iteration. Once all eleven slots are done I'll try to separate the teams out into categories - Stars & Stars, Stars & Cromulence, Stars & Scrubs, Scrubs & Scrubs, Team Cromulence, Team Blah-mulence - with some additional commentary for the placements. NUMBER EIGHT PLAYERS 01. Seiya Suzuki CHC (+1.6) 651 PA | 123 wRC+ | -13.2 DEF | 2.6 WAR [another guy just exemplifies that "professional hitter" archetype with a wRC+ between 118 and 137 each of his four MLB seasons. All told his 127 wRC+ over the last four years is in the same neighborhood as guys like Manny Machado (128), Marcell Ozuna (127), and William Contreras (126)] 02. Tyler Heineman TOR (+1.1) 174 PA | 120 wRC+ | +9.0 DEF | 2.1 WAR [career year for the journeyman 34 year old backup backstop who had 299 PA of 65 wRC+ scattered from 2019-24 coming into the year. Actual .341 wOBA was way out ahead of his .272 xwOBA, but with +17 DRS | +19 FRV for his career anything with the bat is straight bonus] 03. Rafael Devers BOS (+1.0) 334 PA | 146 wRC+ | -7.9 DEF | 2.0 WAR [thru Devers last game with the Red Sox on June 15th they were 37 W- 36 L, from June 16th onward their 52 W - 37 L record was the fifth best W% in MLB] 04. Andrew Vaughn MIL (+0.9) 254 PA | 142 wRC+ | -1.0 DEF | 1.9 WAR [after 2,451 PA of 97 wRC+ and .321 xwOBA with the White Sox from 2021-25 Vaughn exploded to the tune of a .373 actual wOBA and .375 xwOBA after his trade to the Brewers. Small sample, but fielding graded out much better too at 0 DRS | +3 FRV with MIL compared to -12 DRS | -17 FRV with CHW] 05. Luis Torrens NYM (+0.6) 283 PA | 79 wRC+ | +13.9 DEF | 1.6 WAR [career year with the glove for the journeyman 29 year old backup backstop who had 937 scattered PA of 80 wRC+ and -16.8 DEF shaking out to -0.9 WAR from 2017-24] 06. Edmundo Sosa PHI (+0.6) 261 PA | 111 wRC+ | +4.7 DEF | 1.6 WAR [top notch short side platoon IF with a 118 wRC+ vs LHP over 528 PA since 2021 to go along with +21 DRS and +18 FRV for his career] 07. Kerry Carpenter DET (+0.5) 464 PA | 115 wRC+ | -9.5 DEF | 1.5 WAR [fell off to a 3.9 BB% and .274 BABIP in 2025 after posting a 6.9 BB% and .330 BABIP over 868 PA to open his career. Needs a caddy vs LHP with a not so nice 69 wRC+ vs southpaws over 197 career PA] 08. Jurickson Profar ATL (+0.3) 371 PA | 122 wRC+ | -9.8 DEF | 1.3 WAR [from 2018-24 Jurickson put up a 105 wRC+ and averaged 1.0 WAR per 371 PA. With -28 DRS | -26 FRV in LF the last three years should probably be DH-ing at this point & looks like that will be the plan with the Braves signing Mike Yaz] 09. Tommy Edman LAD (+0.2) 377 PA | 81 wRC+ | +7.8 DEF | 1.2 WAR [after putting up a 99 wRC+ and averaging 2.4 per WAR per 377 PA from 2019-24 Edman had a career worst year in 2025 dealing with an ankle injury and maybe some bad luck too with a .320 xwOBA under the hood that was his best since the juiced ball in 2019] 10. Christian Walker HOU (+0.1) 640 PA | 99 wRC+ | -8.4 DEF | 1.1 WAR [put up a 126 wRC+ and averaged 3.7 WAR per 640 PA from 2022-24. Defense collapsed too with +33 DRS | +32 FRV from 2022-24 before posting -7 DRS | +2 FRV in 2025] 11. Carlos Correa MIN (+0.1) 364 PA | 97 wRC+ | +1.3 DEF | 1.1 WAR [dealt back to Astros at deadline with MIN chipping in $33M. Twins got 11.6 regular season WAR and one playoff appearance where Correa went off for 24 PA of 182 wRC+ in return for their $165M] 12. Alex Jackson BAL (+0.1) 100 PA | 111 wRC+ | +5.5 DEF | 1.1 WAR [career year for the journeyman 29 year old backup backstop who had 340 scattered PA of 29 wRC+ and -0.9 WAR from 2019-24. His .278 xwOBA was a nice step up over his .218 xwOBA from 2019-24, but a .327 actual wOBA in 2025 indicates some good fortune in the mix] 13. Jose Caballero NYY (+0.1) 95 PA | 134 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 1.1 WAR [trade deadline acquisition from TBR, see #6 Players list. Just a hunch, but have a feeling Brewers fans would have been a touch less miffed if we dealt Adher for Caballero instead of Jansen from the Rays] 14. Graham Pauley MIA (even) 184 PA | 90 wRC+ | +6.3 DEF | 1.0 WAR [only 13th rounder from 2022 to make MLB so far. Small sample but has graded out well with the glove at +4 DRS | +5 FRV] 15. Nolan Arenado STL (-0.1) 436 PA | 84 wRC+ | +3.8 DEF | 0.9 WAR [age remains undefeated. From 2022 through 205 Arenado's xwOBA has declined from .339 to .320 to .295 to .288. After a decade run as the undisputed king of 3B defense averaging +44 DRS | +30 FRV per 3244 innings from 2013-22 he has posted +12 DRS | +15 FRV over the last three years and 3244 innings] 16. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI (-0.2) 546 PA | 95 wRC+ | -6.6 DEF | 0.8 WAR [typically reliable putting up at least a 105 wRC+ with between 1.3 WAR and 2.1 WAR for six straight seasons before a slip in production and torn ACL in 2025] 17. Leo Rivas SEA (-0.2) 111 PA | 121 wRC+ | -0.4 DEF | 0.8 WAR [utility infielder with 3,316 PA in the minors from 2015-25, the 54th most in MiLB over that timeframe. If anyone's curious Jamie Westbrook is #1 on the list with 450 more PA than second place. Push the start date back to Jamie's first season in 2013 and he is 620 PA ahead of second place] 18. Isiah Kiner-Falafa PIT (-0.2) 428 PA | 75 wRC+ | +4.5 DEF | 0.8 WAR [after posting an 83 wRC+ and .288 xwOBA over 2911 PA from 2018-24 IKF fell off to a .261 xwOBA in 2025. More of a 2B (+8 DRS | +2 FRV last two years) or 3B (+11 DRS | +8 FRV last three years) than a SS (+5 DRS | -5 FRV last three years) at this point] 19. Adolis Garcia TEX (-0.3) 547 PA | 83 wRC+ | -1.9 DEF | 0.7 WAR [after a 128 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR regular season then 68 PA of a blistering 201 wRC+ in the Rangers 2023 World Series run Adolis has put up 1,184 PA of 89 wRC+ and -18.9 DEF for 0.6 WAR and one non-tender] 20. Chandler Simpson TBR (-0.3) 441 PA | 88 wRC+ | -8.2 DEF | 0.7 WAR [perfect BABIP test study moving up the ladder. RK (34 PA | .417 BABIP | .370 AVG) then A+ (253 PA | .394 BABIP | .349 AVG) then AA (358 PA | .377 BABIP | .351 AVG) then AAA (156 PA | .369 BABIP | .333 AVG) then MLB (441 PA | .327 BABIP | .295 AVG). 97th percentile sprint speed and +6.5 BSR but graded out at -9 DRS | -6 FRV in his first MLB outfield action] 21. Casey Schmitt SFG (-0.3) 348 PA | 98 wRC+ | -2.6 DEF | 0.7 WAR [last two years overall, 101 wRC+. Last two years vs RHP, 102 wRC+. Last two years vs LHP, 99 wRC+. Last two years at home, 104 wRC+. Last two years on road, 98 wRC+] 22. Ramon Laureano SDP (-0.3) 198 PA | 127 wRC+ | -5.9 DEF | 0.7 WAR [trade deadline acquisition from BAL. After mostly agreeing on his defense from 2018-22 at +8 DRS | +11 FRV, the two systems have diverged the last three years at +20 DRS | -2 FRV. Bat took a nice step with a .360 xwOBA under the hood after posting a 97 wRC+ and .308 xwOBA over 1,096 PA from 2022-24] 23. Carlos Cortes ATH (-0.3) 99 PA | 132 wRC+ | +0.5 DEF | 0.7 WAR [over 880 PA at AAA from 2022-24 Carlos put up an 87 wRC+. Over 314 PA at AAA in 2025 he jumped to a 138 wRC+ before his small sample MLB debut at age 28. Was way out over his skis with an actual .363 wOBA versus a .318 xwOBA] 24. Austin Wynns CIN (-0.3) 43 PA | 212 wRC+ | +0.3 DEF | 0.7 WAR [the Reds are the first pro baseball team and going back to 1882 FanGraphs says there are 1,093 players with at least 50 PA in franchise history. With a 390/429/661 triple slash good for a 197 wRC+ Austin Wynns is the Best Reds Hitter of All Time (min. 50 PA)] 25. Matt Thaiss CHW (-0.4) 110 PA | 104 wRC+ | +2.1 DEF | 0.6 WAR [double whammy of being drafted by the Angels and in the First Round of the 2016 Draft] 26. Drew Millas WAS (-0.4) 55 PA | 125 wRC+ | +1.3 DEF | 0.6 WAR [see post in Off Season Ideas thread] 27. Salvador Perez KCR (-0.5) 641 PA | 95 wRC+ | -8.7 DEF | 0.5 WAR [30 HR and 100 RBI from a catcher is only worth half a win? When that catcher has a .284 OBP to go along with -15 DRS | -8 FRV behind the plat and -4.8 BSR on the bases, yes] 28. Carlos Santana CLE (-0.5) 455 PA | 87 wRC+ | -2.5 DEF | 0.5 WAR [bottom fell out with the bat at age 39 after putting up 1,719 PA of a 105 wRC+ from age 36 to 38. Smooth fielding the only thing keeping Carlos afloat with +12 DRS and +6 FRV in 2025] 29. Kyren Paris LAA (-0.6) 140 PA | 78 wRC+ | +1.0 DEF | 0.4 WAR [rare High School draftee for the Angels had a 126 wRC+ over 1,185 minor league PA thru 2023 reaching AA. Last two years in the minors, mostly at AAA its been 296 PA of 77 wRC+, over 245 MLB PA it's been a 50 wRC+ with a 38.0 K%] 30. Ryan Ritter COL (-0.9) 207 PA | 64 wRC+ | +2.7 DEF | 0.1 WAR [utility IF with a .245 xwOBA that ranked 343rd of 348 hitters with at least 200 PA in 2025. Does not appear to be of any relation to Three's Company star John Ritter]

I'm not sure the Brewers front office would have the same evaluation. Joey had a full complement of service time remaining when we acquired him, Casas has already burned three years. No doubt Casas is a superior hitter with a 119 wRC+ over 952 career PA, but he's also one of the slowest guys in MLB (-5.7 BSR with 2nd percentile sprint speed), and also a hack at 1B with -11 DRS and -11 FRV for his career. All told Oritz has put up 4.5 WAR over 1,017 PA in two seasons with the Brewers versus Casas totaling 2.2 WAR over 952 PA in his three plus seasons with Boston.

Nestor was a 30 year old soft tossing extreme fly ball pitcher coming off injury who was a salary filler lotto ticket in the Williams deal. Angel is a 26 year old hard throwing extreme ground ball pitcher who the Brewers specifically targeted as a guy they believe has untapped upside remaining. Just two completely different pitchers aside from the arm they throw with.

I would guess the Projected Total Allocations number of $164.8M is what Spotrac is using to refer to the Brewers CBT 40 Man year end payroll which Cot's Contracts has at $160.1M for last year and $162.8M for 2024. Cot's has the Brewers projected for a $115.8M Opening Day 26 Man payroll this year compared to $108M last year and $104.3M in 2024. My personal read on the situation is that Peralta and Megill being dealt are coin flips. Payroll doesn't dictate that they have to be moved, but if the Brewers get an offer they like they will take it. I would doubt if we move Contreras because by all accounts Quero's throwing (which was a foundational aspect of his profile) has not returned to form post shoulder surgery. I'm more inclined to believe the Brewers will acquire another catcher to be the backup so that Jeferson can get everyday reps in Nashville.

Searching the boards at Baseball Trade Values looks like they had Zerpa (7.5) for Collins (6.2) and Mears (3.8) as a slight “win” for KCR, but differences that small are within the margin of error so essentially a wash. Freddy (25.4) and Megill (9.6) combined still come in short of Duran (45.9) by their valuations.

Changing stadiums from AmFam to Kaufmann could maybe help Collins stave off some of that regression that many see as likely after his 2025 season exceeded all realistic expectations. Isaac's game on offense is mostly built around patience (12.9 BB% was 19th of 215 batters with at least 400 PA in 2025) and hitting line drives (24.6 LD% was 10th on that same leaderboard). Going by StatCast's three year rolling park factors (which operate like OPS+ where 100 is average), AmFam is one of the worst parks in MLB for singles (94 rating | 24th) and doubles (87 rating | 27th) whereas Kaufmann is one of the better parks in MLB for singles (103 rating | 8th) and doubles (113 rating | 5th). With a below average fly ball rate (91 FB%+) and all fields approach (101 Pull+ | 100 Cent+ | 99 Oppo+), Collins batted ball profile was about as poor a fit as possible for AmFam's homer friendly effects (106 HR rating | 7th). Obviously lots of noise in single season home/road splits, but the awkward fit between Isaac's offensive profile as a line drive hitting singles/doubles kind of guy and AmFam's suppression of those types of hits played out to the tune of a 93 wRC+ over 236 PA at home versus a 156 wRC+ over 205 PA on the road for Collins last year.

How so? Zerpa has been more available (118 IP to 81 IP last two years) than Hall has. Their strikeout rates (92 K%+ vs 91 K%+) and home run suppression (84 HR9+ vs 78 HR9+) have been about the same, but Zerpa walks waaay fewer batters (95 BB%+ vs 131 BB%+) than Hall does. Put it all together an DL has been worse than average across the board at 104 ERA- | 103 FIP- | 113 FIP- over these last two years, where Angel has been better than average across the board at 96 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 87 xFIP- these last two years. The only area DL really has any kind of advantage is that he allowed a 94 BABIP+ over the last two years compared to a 113 BABIP+ for Angel. If the Brewers were able to coax that kind of BABIP suppression out of Hall and his underwhelming array of pitches (91 Stuff+ last two years), they likely believe they can do all that & maybe even more with Zerpa and his more impressive arsenal (114 Stuff+ last two years) that has graded out in the same neighborhood as guys like Ashby (118 Stuff+) and Uribe (117 Stuff+).

Good idea. Below I've listed out Joey compared to the ninth best player on the other three Brewers LCS teams, though I used BRef for 1982, 2011 and 2018 since it was more favorable to the ninth best player on those squads. Underneath that I listed out the player who was ninth in FanGraphs WAR on the last thirty full season World Series participants. They weren't that much better than the ninth best players on the thirty 2025 teams coming in at 30.7 combined WAR for an average of just over 1.0 WAR each on the World Series teams compared to 23.8 WAR and a 0.8 WAR average in 2025. Kind of interesting that Joey was one of four guys on the 2025 list that had enough PA to qualify for the batting title, and there are also only four guys on the World Series list who qualified for the batting title. Nine of those thirty WS#9 guys matched or exceeded Joey's 1.4 WAR from 2025, with 2022 Martin Maldonado (71 wRC+ | +10.8 DEF) having the most similar shaped production. Two guys show up twice each - Aledmys Diaz on the 2019/21 Astros, and Mitch Moreland more spaced out with the 2010 Rangers and 2018 Red Sox. BREWERS LCS TEAMS 2025 Joey Ortiz 506 PA | 67 wRC+ | +13.9 DEF | 1.4 WAR 2018 Manny Pina 337 PA | 87 OPS+ | +9.0 DEF | 1.0 WAR 2011 George Kottaras 123 PA | 107 OPS+ | +1.0 DEF | 0.5 WAR 1982 Charlie Moore 492 PA | 85 OPS+ | +3.0 DEF | 1.0 WAR WORLD SERIES TEAMS 2025 Hyesong Kim LAD 170 PA | 95 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 0.8 WAR Nathan Lukes TOR 438 PA | 103 wRC+ | +2.3 DEF | 1.8 WAR 2024 Andy Pages LAD 443 PA | 98 wRC+ | -1.3 DEF | 1.3 WAR Giancarlo Stanton NYY 459 PA | 117 wRC+ | -11.8 DEF | 0.8 WAR 2023 Ezequiel Duran TEX 439 PA | 111 wRC+ | -4.4 DEF | 1.4 WAR Emmanuel Rivera ARI 283 PA | 82 wRC+ | +0.5 DEF | 0.3 WAR 2022 Martin Maldonado HOU 379 PA | 71 wRC+ | +10.8 DEF | 0.8 WAR Brandon Marsh PHI 138 PA | 115 wRC+ | =0.5 DEF | 0.7 WAR 2021 Eddie Rosario ATL 106 PA | 134 wRC+ | -1.1 DEF | 0.7 WAR Aledmys Diaz HOU 319 PA | 97 wRC+ | +5.4 DEF | 1.5 WAR 2019 Yan Gomes WAS 358 PA | 80 wRC+ | +7.6 DEF | 0.9 WAR Aledmys Diaz HOU 247 PA | 118 wRC+ | -0.1 DEF | 1.4 WAR 2018 Mitch Moreland BOS 459 PA | 101 wRC+ | -5.8 DEF | 0.9 WAR Matt Kemp LAD 506 PA | 122 wRC+ | -7.1 DEF | 2.0 WAR 2017 Jake Marisnick HOU 259 PA | 117 wRC+ | +5.2 DEF | 1.9 WAR Chase Utley LAD 353 PA | 96 wRC+ | -4.4 DEF | 0.7 WAR 2016 Miguel Montero CHC 284 PA | 83 wRC+ | +12.4 DEF | 1.4 WAR Brandon Guyer CLE 96 PA | 150 wRC+ | -0.1 DEF | 1.0 WAR 2015 Salvador Perez KCR 553 PA | 87 wRC+ | +4.5 DEF | 0.8 WAR Ruben Tejada NYM 407 PA | 94 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 1.1 WAR 2014 Andrew Susac SFG 95 PA | 127 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 0.8 WAR Danny Valencia KCR 119 PA | 100 wRC+ | +3.5 DEF | 0.5 WAR 2013 Jose Iglesias BOS 234 PA | 115 wRC+ | +6.2 DEF | 1.8 WAR David Freese STL 521 PA | 105 wRC+ | -7.4 DEF | 0.5 WAR 2012 Joaquin Arias SFG 344 PA | 90 wRC+ | +0.5 DEF | 0.6 WAR Omar Infante DET 241 PA | 77 wRC+ | -0.9 DEF | 0.3 WAR 2011 Colby Rasmus STL 386 PA | 110 wRC+ | -8.1 DEF | 1.0 WAR Nelson Cruz TEX 513 PA | 116 wRC+ | -12.2 DEF | 1.4 WAR 2010 Eli Whiteside SFG 252 PA | 92 wRC+ | +6.5 DEF | 0.9 WAR Mitch Moreland TEX 173 PA | 115 wRC+ | -3.1 DEF | 0.7 WAR

Out of 103 relievers with at least 100 IP the last two years Zerpa’s 60.5 GB% is 5th. His 87 xFIP- is exactly the same as guys like Ryan Helsley, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias on that same leaderboard. Matching 124 Stuff+ grades on his sinker (3rd best) and slider (24th).