sveumrules

Win Probability Added agrees… Shelby +.254 Contreras +.247 Yelich +.162 Vaughn +.126 Misio +.113 Collins +.105 then on the other end of the spectrum… Koenig -.416

Would imagine voters are more likely to go off his 5.1 runs allowed WAR (tied for 3rd in NL with Wheeler) or his 4.4 WAR on BRef which is tied for 6th in the NL than his FIP based WAR. Old school voters could also be swayed by his impressive W/L record, especially if he manages to hit the elusive 20 wins. But yeah, Skenes and Sanchez should be an easy #1/#2 for NL CY and Freddy really only has a shot at #3 because Wheeler got hurt.

Can use a few different chronological dividing lines for the offense depending how one wants to do things to show their power growth as the season has gone on, using ISO which accounts for all extra base hits not just HR... First 46 Games 229/306/346 .117 ISO (28th) Last 86 Games 272/345/434 .162 ISO (16th) or... First 69 Games 234/313/361 .127 ISO (27th) Sal to Lead Off 282/352/450 .169 ISO (15th) or... First 90 Games 247/322/381 .135 ISO (26th) Vaughn gets Here 279/353/452 .173 ISO (12th) or... First 107 Games 252/325/387 .136 ISO (27th) Bill & Brice HR Surge 281/359/475 .194 ISO (8th)

Going through the game logs looks like Priester (x3), Peralta (x2), Quintana (x2), and Woodruff (x1) have combined for eight outings greater than 6.0 IP so it’s not completely out of the question!!

Sorry, don’t have any. Priester (5.4), Woody (5.5), Peralta (5.5) and Quintana (5.6) all average five to six innings per start. Misio (4.4) is four to five. Even with the shorter outings the Brewers are still 58 W - 26 L (.690 W%) when one of those five start the game.

The Brewers are still an MLB best 18 W - 6 L since the trade deadline, 2.5 games ahead of PHI. That includes a 3 W - 1 L record in the four games started by Misio and his fill ins. How much better do you think they could have realistically been? 19 W - 5 L instead?

I mean drawing a walk with no ISO is kinda the Brewers whole thing. Going back to Arnold’s first year in 2023 they are 3rd in walk rate and 25th in ISO (while scoring the 7th most runs and winning the 2nd most games in MLB). Seigler was hitting 263/370/263 (91 wRC+) in his 47 PA as a third baseman entering tonight, so Murph isn’t wrong in saying he has a knack for getting on base even if it has just been a neat trick with no ISO yet. His seasonal line is dragged down considerably by going 1 for 15 (2 BB) over 17 PA as a PH/DH/1B. They’ve also gone 11 W - 3 L in Seigler’s 14 much ballyhooed starts at 3B so his lack of ISO hasn’t really cost them too much so far.

There are 462 players with at least 50 PA vs RHP this year. Seigler's 51 wRC+ vs RHP ties him 407th to 413th on that list so there have been 49 batters worse than Seigler. Bottom of the list is MJ Melendez at 077/111/115 (-47 wRC+).

Yeah, Ashby has been one of the most dominant relief arms on a rate basis the last two seasons, only thing missing is the quantity with just 67 IP (194th). Ranks are among 224 relivers min. 60 IP since last year... 119 LOB+ (2nd) | 45 ERA- (4th) | 58 FIP- (4th) | 137 GB%+ (10th) | 36 HR9+ (12th) | 140 K%+ (20th) | 78 WHIP+ (24th) | 81 AVG+ (34th) | 2.2 rWAR (34th) | 1.5 fWAR (57th) | +1.61 WPA (58th) Walks (91 BB+ | 72nd) have been his biggest performance bugaboo and he's still been better than average there.

Some serious shade here on Luke Adams 21 HBP which still lead the Southern League as well. Darrien Miller trying to catch him in 2nd place with 14 plunks of his own.

Over 1,210 PA with the Yankees organization from 2018 to 2024 Seigler hit 218/359/358 (108 wRC+). This includes all his time at the easiest / lowest levels of the minor leagues. Over his 267 PA with the Brewers in AAA this year he hit 277/416/465 (140 wRC+). Could just be small sample noise, could be a player in his physical prime experiencing a change in his true talent level. Only way to find out is to run him out there at the MLB level to see what happens.

No worries, hopefully they can win tonight by four or more runs so we can get Megill & the other leverage arms another day of rest either way.

Nice breakdown & video highlight reel of Made’s SS defense over at FanGraphs today. Sounds like Longenhagen is doing this for all the top ranked SS prospects so future installments will likely feature Pratt and Peña as well.

Where did I sing a different tune? My belief remains that Megill throwing the fewest IP among top closers means it’s hard to argue he’s been overused. Trevor is 5th on the team in games, and 6th in IP. If he’s been overused than so have Uribe, Megill, Mears, Anderson, and Ashby who all have more appearances and/or innings than Megill.

Welcome to the board, sometimes the things that pass for knowledge I can't understand...but I'm still trying anyway.

Yeah, not sure how Miller at 194/381/329 with a 16.3 CS% in Biloxi this year is ahead of Wood at 263/355/389 with a 29.9 CS% since his promotion. Miller still can't throw anyone out and his batting line is propped up entirely by an unsustainable 18.5 BB% (and 6.3 HBP%) with accompanying 24.5 K% while Wood has a much more promising 10.5 BB% | 12.5 K% under the hood in Biloxi. Seigler is fine as a third or emergency catcher, but expecting him to be the backup backstop (even with how rarely Contreras sits) is probably stretching things, especially with only a 20.0 CS% for his minor league career.

The Brewers have plenty of confidence, some of their fans…not so much.

Megill has the lowest IP among the top 15 MLB relievers in saves, he isn't being overused. Misio also has 63.1 IP in AAA this year for a total of 112 IP combined, though I'm not sure what the relevance is between a 23 year old starting pitching prospect and a 31 year old one inning closer.

If you wanted to put things in perspective, a better comparison would be Megill versus other top closers... Carlos Estevez 34 SV | 57.1 IP Robert Suarez 34 SV | 55.1 IP Trevor Megill 30 SV | 46.0 IP Andres Munoz 30 SV | 50.0 IP Josh Hader 28 SV | 52.2 IP Jeff Hoffman 28 SV | 54.0 IP Emilio Pagan 25 SV | 54.1 IP Aroldis Chapman 24 SV | 50.0 IP Edwin Diaz 24 SV | 49.0 IP Kyle Finnegan 24 SV | 49.2 IP Emmanuel Clase 24 SV | 47.1 IP (hasn't pitched in a month) Kenley Jansen 23 SV | 49.0 IP Jhoan Duran 23 SV | 57.0 IP Raisel Iglesias 22 SV | 54.2 IP Pete Fairbanks 22 SV | 48.1 IP Ryan Helsley 21 SV | 43.1 IP Considering you have to go all the way down to the guy who is 16th in saves before you reach someone with fewer IP than Megill its hard for me to say workload has been an issue with Trevor when the other top closers all have more innings than he does.

Was messing around on the FanGraphs age 20-21 leaderboards and found a pretty interesting statistical comp for what Jackson has done so far... Chourio (1,045 PA | 6.7 WAR) 70 BB+ | 93 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 124 ISO+ ??????? (1,175 PA | 7.1 WAR) 70 BB+ | 84 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 131 ISO+ ??????? = Henry Aaron age 20-21.

2026 I’d guess Pratt is at AAA with Made/Peña at AA, then 2027 is when things could start getting crowded as Cooper would theoretically be ready for MLB & Jesus/Luis could be too if they follow the Chourio ascension route. Turang would have three years of Arby remaining in 2027. Think the two big questions this offseason will boil down to what happens with the Woodruff/Peralta situations and if the Brewers think upgrading one of Durbin/Ortiz in the short term for more of a known quantity is worth dealing from their minor league depth versus rolling with the status quo for another year & giving all involved players another year to develop before making a decision.

When Haase was DFA’d he went unclaimed and passed through waivers. Jansen got $8.5M as a free agent from the Rays to be their primary catcher. From 2021-25 Jansen and Haase are among 36 catchers with at least 1,000 PA, here are their ranks… Haase: 1,171 PA (30th) 89 wRC+ (22nd) 1.7 WAR (31st) Jansen: 1,367 PA (26th) 108 wRC+ (11th) 7.3 WAR (13th)

Rutschman is looking like Matt Wieters 2: Electric Boogaloo... Adley at Age 24 to 27 2022: 133 wRC+ | 5.6 WAR 2023: 125 wRC+| 5.5 WAR 2024: 102 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 2025: 93 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR Wieters at age 25 to 27 2011: 110 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR 2012: 107 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR 2013: 86 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR From age 28 to 34 for Wieters it was an 85 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR. Basallo isn't an MLB ready everyday catcher defensively so I'd imagine the O's will ride out Rutschman for at least another year and hope he bounces back because no one should be giving up some really good prospects for him with that trendline.

Truly an impossible task for what has been an almost top to bottom team effort posting the best record in MLB through almost 80% of the season now so thought I'd break things down into tiers... 01 to 03 The All Year Vets Contreras catching dang near every day and the bats been coming around for the last 100 some PA now...Peralta giving the team a chance to win every time he takes the hill...Yelich with a possible 30 HR / 100 RBI / 20 SB season looming for fans of round numbers. 04 to 07 The Youngins & An Old Rookie Frelick for the offense shifting gears when he went to leadoff...Turang going on a homer binge this month is certainly intriguing...feels criminal leaving Collins just outside the top five with how much he's blown by any reasonable (or unreasonable) expectations...Chourio lurking in the wings for a hopeful September surge. 08 to 10 Two Surprises & An Old Friend Priester keeping that fifteen appearance win streak alive at the perfect time...Vaughn taking the offense to a whole other level (thanks Civale)...Woodruff showing back up and winning seven in a row like nothing ever happened minus a few MPH. 11 to 13 The Leverage Guys & The Crafty Lefty Megill for taking over the closer role seamlessly...Uribe for maturing into a more fully realized version...Quintana for defying father time and Fielding Independent Pitching models. 14 to 18 Left Side of the Infield & Rookie Righties Durbin and Ortiz have combined for 3.0 WAR now by FanGraphs calculations which might not seem like much, but is top end production from the 8th/9th players on a roster. Only the Blue Jays (3.0 WAR) and Tigers (2.9 WAR) have gotten a similar level of production from their 8th/9th players while the Cubs (2.2 WAR), Yankees (2.2 WAR), Red Sox (2.0 WAR), Cardinals (2.0 WAR) and Dodgers (1.9 WAR) are the only other teams to approach two wins from their 8th/9th players. Debated if I should put Patrick, Henderson, and Misio ahead or behind Caleb/Joey in this tier, but the rookie righties have combined for 677 batters faced versus 806 plate appearances (plus another six hundred some fielding chances) for the left side of the infield. Either way FanGraphs has all rookie pitchers combining for 20.7 rWAR this year, the Brewers trio has accounted for 3.8 rWAR (or 18.4%) of that total. 19 to 24 The Rest of the Relievers Koenig doesn't quite have the peripherals to match Uribe/Megill but has still been a top fifty reliever by WPA this year...Ashby does have the peripherals to match Uribe/Megill and has been getting more leverage opportunities as the season has gone on with leverage index splits of 0.56 thru July 2nd and 1.18 since...Mears has gotten plenty of leverage work too with his 40 inherited runners third most in MLB...Anderson has contributed 60 IP of 72 ERA- work as ostensibly the 6th or 7th man in the pen...Hall chipped in 37 IP of 81 ERA- and +0.66 WPA before this recent oblique...speaking of obliques its a small sample of only 12 IP but Myers has posted a 53 ERA- | 88 FIP- since coming back from his (to go along with an 83 ERA- | 81 FIP- in 59 IP at AAA). 25 to 28 Bench Players and Some Speculation Perkins already has a walk off hit and outfield assist in his short time back...Monasterio had a huge homer on the recent burger streak...Hoskins was the only one hitting there for a stretch in May and should be back just in time for some pop off the bench down the stretch...and how about Gasser as a potential weapon for September and the playoffs? Small sample of 15 rehab innings but the 42 ERA- | 67 FIP- he has put up so far is about as good as one could hope for from a performance standpoint and bodes well for him maybe replicating something like the 63 ERA- | 83 FIP- he posted over his first 28 MLB innings last year (following 135 IP of 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- at AAA in 2023). But if you made it this far & read or even skimmed all of that you know who the real MVP of the 2025 Brewers is and that is Uecker Magic.

At least David Hamilton is getting the call in his stead, former Brewer in, former Brewer out, may the circle be unbroken.