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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yup. Obviously Edwin was better in 2022, but their career numbers are pretty close aside from IP (Diaz debuted a year earlier) and WPA… Diaz: 399 IP | 72 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 9.9 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR | +10.59 WPA Hader: 332 IP | 65 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 10.2 rWAR | 9.6 fWAR | +14.09 WPA Gotta figure Josh beats it pretty easily if he comes out and has another year in the vicinity of his 2021 campaign - 58 IP | 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- | 3.4 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +5.05 WPA.
  2. sveumrules
    Great article. I’ve had 6/200 as my hypothetical Burnes extension offer, so I’d be cool with 7/210.
  3. sveumrules
    For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons… 01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR 02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR 03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR 07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR 09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR
  4. sveumrules
    For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons… 01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR 02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR 03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR 07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR 09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR
  5. sveumrules
    Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently. Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal… Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR
  6. sveumrules
    Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently. Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal… Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR
  7. sveumrules
    My earliest baseball memories are from 1986…opening my first pack of Topps (got an Earnie Riles), Valenzuela striking out Higuera in the All Star Game, and of course Mookie/Buckner in the World Series. There are 1,132 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 1986. Corbin’s 68 FIP- is tied for 10th with Pedro & Robb Nenn. Woodruff’s 74 FIP- is tied for 28th with Doug Jones, BJ Ryan, Joakim Soria and Mark Eichorn. Freddy’s 80 FIP- is tied for 73rd with Francisco Rodriguez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Eric Gagne.
  8. sveumrules
    For sure. Six in a row at home after opening on the road. ATL (5-3) only team they’ve played with a winning record so far. Other five opponents (DET, HOU, BKN, NYK, PHI) are 12-30 combined. Nice to see them handling the opponents they are supposed to, last season they didn’t win their 7th game until game #15. Opponents for the 13 games remaining this month should pose more of a challenge (45-32 combined record) before they kick off December with LAL, CHA, ORL, SAC and HOU.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, getting Brook back and looking spry-er has been huge. But the scheme switching from letting the other team jack threes at will (40.5 opponent 3PA per 100, most in NBA last season) to making it a focus to deny them (30.3 so far this year, 5th fewest in NBA) has definitely paid dividends in the early going. Defensive Rating of 101.9 currently best in the Association with a healthy gap before Cleveland in second at 105.5.
  10. sveumrules
    Going from tying the WS record for most HRs in a game to being no hit (ok, still 2 outs away) in the next. Its perfect because it’s proof for whichever truth one wants to believe. Monentum only lasts as long as the next day’s starting pitcher. The game is too all or nothing strikeout or home run. The postseason is a mostly random enterprise. The truth I want to believe is they’re all true and untrue (along with a bunch of other truths and untruths) to varying degrees. & that’s why baseball is the best.
  11. sveumrules
    Nice win against a young Pistons team last night. Detroit battled back from down 16 to tie it up with a minute left in Q4 but Jrue hit a huge step back three to take the lead, then the defense sealed the deal forcing Detroit into a contested thirty footer from Cunningham that clanked. Play the Pistons again tomorrow night. Kind of like these little two game series they started doing. Gives a little extra intrigue to the regular season games. Will the Detroit come out hungry after just missing last night? Or will the Bucks put up another 11-40 from three (including an 0-14 stretch when DET was getting back in the game) and give the Pistons a chance?
  12. sveumrules
    Between Giannis leading the Bucks to an undefeated start without Khris or Pat, then teams like Lakers (0-5, Pels get their 1st round pick), Nets (1-5), Heat (2-5) and Sixers (3-4) struggling or outright sucking so far, the beginning of this season has been about as close to peak entertainment as it gets.
  13. sveumrules
    Also feel like Stearns deserves some major credit for the organization's fortunes on the pitching front completely flipping on his watch... 1970-2015: 103 ERA- (28th) | 104 FIP- (30th) 2016-22: 93 ERA- (6th) | 97 FIP- (7th) Remember all the consternation about how the pitching was going to revert back to historical franchise norms when Derrick Johnson left for Cincinnati?
  14. sveumrules
    Also feel like Stearns deserves some major credit for the organization's fortunes on the pitching front completely flipping on his watch... 1970-2015: 103 ERA- (28th) | 104 FIP- (30th) 2016-22: 93 ERA- (6th) | 97 FIP- (7th) Remember all the consternation about how the pitching was going to revert back to historical franchise norms when Derrick Johnson left for Cincinnati?
  15. sveumrules
    There have essentially been eight different eras of Milwaukee Brewers baseball... 1970-77 | 550-738 | .427 | (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 | .564 | (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 | .445 | (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 | .523 | (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1219 | .446 | (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 | .526 | (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 | .469 | (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-22 | 481-390 | .552 | (Stearns Competitive Years) I'll remember Stearns as the guy who helmed the most successful stretch of Brewers baseball in my conscious lifetime & put the infrastructure in place for the organization to move forward and succeed in the modern analytical era.
  16. sveumrules
    There have essentially been eight different eras of Milwaukee Brewers baseball... 1970-77 | 550-738 | .427 | (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 | .564 | (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 | .445 | (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 | .523 | (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1219 | .446 | (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 | .526 | (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 | .469 | (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-22 | 481-390 | .552 | (Stearns Competitive Years) I'll remember Stearns as the guy who helmed the most successful stretch of Brewers baseball in my conscious lifetime & put the infrastructure in place for the organization to move forward and succeed in the modern analytical era.
  17. sveumrules
    I know next to nothing about Matt Arnold except that he used to work with the Rays and he has been Stearns right hand man for the last seven years, so I googled "Matt Arnold Podcast" and the text in one of the links said, "With a vast scouting background and an interest in everything ranging from biomechanics to financial planning, Arnold has been referred to as the Benjamin Zobrist of front offices." I look forward to his wife's Christian Pop album.
  18. sveumrules
    Things will either be better, worse, or about the same. I'm not saying that each of the three options have a 33.3% chance of happening, but none of them have a zero or one hundred percent chance either.
  19. sveumrules
    Everything is questionable. There is no way to know if it’s a step up, down or sideways until transactions happen and games are played.
  20. sveumrules
    Out of 395 players with at least 400 PAs since 2020 the only two players with a K rate higher than Bart’s 38.0% are Hiura & Maverick Phillips at 38.5%. I’d probably do Keston straight up for Bart if SF wants to do a challenge trade.
  21. sveumrules
    Third quarter of this Bucks / Nets game has been pretty intense. Bucks overcome a 12 point deficit with Giannis doing Giannis things and some BOBBY BOBBY mixed in. Durant got T’d up because he’s too skinny to handle Giannis then Nash got double T’d with a pretty impressive outburst, especially for a Canadian.
  22. sveumrules
    Ding ding. From Preller’s first season at the helm in 2015 through 2019 the Padres went 349-461, 26th in MLB. Their average payroll rank was 24th. They had five years to accumulate talent. Over that same time frame, even though they were transitioning from Melvin to Stearns & not spending (average payroll rank also 24th), the Brewers went 412-399, 10th in MLB. Stearns & company were too good too fast. Since pushing their chips to the center of the table & breaking out in 2020 the Padres have spent around $470M to go 205-179. Over that same time frame the Brewers have spent around $280M to go 210-174. Padres are 8-10 in two postseason trips under Preller vs the Brewers 7-10 in four postseason trips under Stearns. The differences are almost entirely aesthetics (& economics).
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, which OF they end up dealing (if any) will be interesting to see. Chourio is off the table, I’d imagine. After that I’d prefer to hold on to Wiemer most because he’s the only AAA guy with plus power. Frelick, Michell & Ruiz have some redundancies among their skill sets, so dealing one (or two) of them makes the most sense to me.
  24. sveumrules
    The AAA outfield depth and need for a legit MLB catcher definitely seem like potential offseason dance partners. This past season, Oakland OF hit for an 87 wRC+ and tallied 2.1 WAR, both ranking 25th in MLB. They could definitely use an infusion of young MLB-ready talent on the grass. The A’s 2B/SS were equally bad. Extend Adames, pick up Wong’s option, include Turang in a Murphy deal? Could also see a scenario where the Rangers sign Contreras then include Heim as a piece in a Burnes/Woodruff trade. Agree that Jansen probably hits that sweet spot of not costing quite as much to acquire, but still being an upgrade even if he is only like a 110 wRC+ guy in a larger role than he has had with Toronto.
  25. sveumrules
    Players play. Management manages. Unless you're LeBron James, then you get to do both.
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