.jpg.cc012630838b9a00fd2a2371995d5f38.jpg)
sveumrules
-
Posts
10,922 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
213
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sveumrules
-
Both. I believe the front office has stated their goal is to field a competitive team season after season & they’re on a five year roll.
-
The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018, with a number of key contributors during that timeframe being acquired via trade - Yelich, Adames, Omar, Manny, Moose, Urias, Shaw, Caratini, Rowdy, Peralta, Lauer, Lyles, Pomeranz. Pretty good for a team not going for it. -
No reliever pitched more than 40 innings in 2020. Rogers xFIP is 3.36 this year & 3.19 for his career, I agree those have better predictive capabilities than his 4.35 ERA from this year.
-
This is pretty much where I’m at too. Totally understand the trade & am intrigued by what I feel is a solid return, but I didn’t think they’d deal Josh until the offseason. Not only an all time great Brewer, but an all time great start to a career for a reliever. Been fun watching him evolve from a guy who would come in for multiple innings & blow away hitters with just a heater into an elite closer once he figured out the slider. Best of luck to him in San Diego (except when he’s facing the Brewers of course) & hopefully he gives Hoffman a run for his money.
-
Would love it if we could pull Sean Murphy from Oakland. 3rd in both catcher WAR & framing runs since 2020, career 110 wRC+. Would shore up catcher for the next three years.
-
Just to build out on the Max/Trea comparison above, Scherzer put up 2.7 WAR with the Dodgers & Turner is at 6.1 and counting. By the end of 2022, less than two months of Scherzer and eight months of Trea will have likely surpassed Hader’s career WAR total.
-
That is essentially the kind of return WAS got from LAD for Max Scherzer & Trea Turner last deadline. Even as the best reliever in baseball, Josh’s value isn’t commensurate with 1/2 a season of an ace starter plus 1 1/2 years of an All Star SS.
-
Because they are exchanging what is likely a negligible decrease in current playoff odds for a drastic increase in expected future value. Also the salary freed up by exchanging Hader for an essentially free Rogers (Twins are paying most of his salary this year) gives them more flexibility to still improve at the deadline and again in the offseason.
-
For those disappointed with the trade, which Padres prospects would you have preferred to replace the Lamet/Diaz/Gasser portion of the trade? Just looking at the FanGraphs preseason list I would imagine that all their 50 FV & over guys - Abrams, Campusano, Hassell III, Gore & Wood - would have been off the table, even without Rogers coming back in the deal.
-
Today, with Hader still in the Brewers depth chart listings on FanGraphs, they are at 90.6% playoffs, 81.7% division and 5.4% World Series odds. Once the depth charts are updated I'll post the new odds with Rogers swapped in for Hader. My guess is that the impact will be negligible. If the Brewers front office didn't believe they were as good as their division lead suggests (I personally think the Brewers front office believes this team is better than their division lead suggests given the pitching injuries/underperformance they've endured to this point), they probably would have tried for more future value in the return in favor of present value or near-present value in guys like Rogers, Lamet or Ruiz.
-
The math seems pretty simple. Right now, Rogers to Hader is a small downgrade on the field, but an upgrade in terms of payroll flexibility for the remainder of the deadline and heading into next year. In the future, 13 years of Lamet/Gasser/Ruiz is likely to largely outstrip 1 year of Hader in terms of value. Just glad he wasn't traded to the Mets, now we know Stearns is sticking around for awhile.
-
2022 was Rogers final season of arbitration. He didn't settle for a prove it deal. Since the start of 2018 Rogers is 5th in FIP based WAR and 16th in runs allowed based WAR among relievers. Of course, Hader is 3rd in fWAR and 1st in rWAR, so he is better, but it's not a huge margin.
-
Seventy Nine Plate Appearances vs RHP. That is Hiura’s entire case. 79 PAs with a .520 BABIP. The highest BABIP among qualified hitters this year is Xander at .389. 79 PAs with a 53.8% HR/FB rate. The highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters is Judge at 36.2%. 79 PAs with a 43.0 K%. The highest K% among qualified hitters is Brandon Marsh at 36.2%, though he is at least a GG caliber defender (+8 DRS | +4.7 UZR | +9 OAA). Even after his scorching 2019 debut (348 PAs) people were like “that was cool, but there’s no way Keston repeats his .402 BABIP or 24.1 HR/FB% if he doesn’t get that 30.7 K% under control”. Keston had 321 PAs vs RHP from 2020-21 with an 80 wRC+ | 35.5 K% | .263 BABIP | 20.9 HR/FB%. I’ve been enjoying the offense starting to click on all cylinders recently, I don’t need to watch Hiura regress to the mean.
-
Last post in the 2022 Offense thread was on 7/17. Since then the Brewers have an MLB best 145 wRC+ with the 4th most runs scored. Good job offense!! With the day off & an even 60 games left, thought it might be a good time to look back at the ebbs & flows of the season to this point… First 50 games… 32-18 | 3.28 ERA (4th) | 228 R (7th) Middle 11 games… 1-10 | 5.99 ERA (29th) | 35 R (28th) Last 41 games… 24-17 | 3.96 ERA (13th) | 211 R (6th) Outside of that two week stretch in the middle where everything went haywire the offense has been pretty consistent, more consistent than the pitching anyway. If a poster had come on the board at the beginning of the season & said “after 102 games the Brewers will have a 3 game Division lead with the 6th best offense & 13th best pitching by runs per game” they probably would have got some pushback.
-
Josh Hader Trade Rumors (again)
sveumrules replied to Ulice Payne's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The Brewers are 6th in MLB in runs scored & 13th in runs allowed. The offense is the reason this team has a three game division lead in the first place. -
Only thing I can think of is luxury tax maybe? The way JBJs contract is structured, BOS will have to pay him 17.5 million, but his luxury tax hit is only 12 million/1 year assuming the mutual option isn’t exercised. Renfroe got 7.65 in Arby’s this year & will probably be due another what, 13-15 next year? My other thought was maybe they wanted a CF, but JBJ has played mostly RF so don’t think that was much of a factor. Guess Red Sox wanted to save a few million, then used rolling the dice on a couple prospects & bringing JBJ back as smoke screens for their cheapness.
-
Yeah, Burnes has been Burnes. Outside of that, Woody & Lauer only recently got their ERA+ on the good side of 100. Peralta & Houser have been hurt/ineffective. Ashby has had rookie struggles. Chubby bald guy from Seinfeld started some games. Add/subtract it all up & FanGraphs has the rotation 13th in runs allowed WAR (8.1) and 9th in FIP WAR (8.3). With Hader’s bad couple weeks the bullpen hasn’t fared much better, 8th in rWAR (3.5) and 13th in fWAR (2.3) Pretty nuts that this team is where it is right now considering the strength of their team has underperformed to this point, while the much maligned offense, 5th in runs per game (4.67) and 8th in WAR (16.0), has carried the team so far. Gotta love this crazy game.
-
In addition to the Rays (0.1 WAR), HOU (-0.7 WAR), STL (-0.6 WAR), CLE (0.0 WAR) and NYM (0.2 WAR) have all gotten bottom of the barrel catcher production. Hopefully Stearns & company can leverage their C depth (2.6 WAR, 7th) and deal Severino to one of those teams for at least some regular season reinforcements. Can prolly cross STL off the list & Contreras to NYM just seems so obvious, but putting him into that HOU lineup would be pretty scary too. CLE (-0.8 WAR) and NYM (-0.2 WAR) also have gotten negative production out of DH, so maybe a package of Hiura/Severino could be appealing? Mets will probably pull JDM or Bell though.
-
Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.
-
Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.
-
Badger Mutual Insurance finally seeing some ROI
-
The Brewers 128 wRC+ with RISP is the best in MLB this year. They’ve been scoring them with frequency. The problem has been getting there, 883 PAs with RISP is 24th.
-
On July 30 2014, FanGraphs saw the three NLC contenders as relatively evenly matched in terms of playoff/division odds… MIL (60-49, 32% D | 58% PO) PIT (57-50, 33% D | 56% PO) STL (56-50, 32% D | 58% PO) Based just on their record, the Brewers should have had better odds, but the computers thought they were playing over their head to the point that their 2 to 2.5 game lead was essentially meaningless over the remaining two months. This year there is one less team competing for the division, one more team getting into the playoffs & the 2022 Brewers are a better team than the 2014 team was. That is reflected in the projections… FG has MKE (80% D | 91% PO) vs STL (20% D | 51% PO). BPro has MKE (82% D | 93% PO) vs STL (18% D | 54 PO%). 538 has MKE (69% D | 84% PO) vs STL (31% D | 61% PO) Of course nothing is certain until the math says it is, but with 7 NL teams (8 if you want to count SFG still) competing for 6 spots & only 1 team competing for the Division, the Brewers record since the break has definitely strengthened what was an already pretty strong playoff positioning.
-
Obviously winning on the HR vs JBJ end of the trade. Here’s an update on the prospects we sent out… Alex Binelas raked in A+, 259 PAs | 26.6 K% | 126 wRC+, but has struggled so far in a small sample at AA, 95 PAs | 33.6 K% | 75 wRC+. David Hamilton has played the whole year at AA with 359 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 47/4 SB/CS.
-
Yeah, I’ll take those odds too. Noelvi Marte entered the season ranked between #11-18 on the MLB, BPro & BA lists, and has put up a 134 wRC+ with a 21.3% K rate as a 21 year old SS in A+ since then. Players with that kind of scouting & statistical profile don’t flameout before MLB 90% of the time.
