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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Black is 21 with a 15.1 K% and 136 wRC+ in Appleton this year. Gray is 22 with a 35.7 K% and 75 wRC+ in Appleton this year. If opposing teams view them as having equal value, I’d greatly prefer to deal Gray.
  2. sveumrules
    Not sure if it’s already been noted somewhere, but just saw that the two Brewers ACL teams are the youngest in the league with an average age of 18.8 each for the hitters (next youngest are Reds/Guardians at 19.1) and 19.5/19.7 for the pitchers (next youngest are Angels at 20.0).
  3. sveumrules
    When Hader was a multi inning guy he would occasionally get a plate appearance, looks like he ended up with 8 total from 2017-19. In that particular game he relieved Woodruff after Brandon threw 95 pitches over 3.2 IP & then lead off the 5th with his lone career single before coming around to score on an Eric Thames bomb.
  4. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, Mass. Think that makes Ramon a more realistic option for sure then. Has mashed LHP for a 916 OPS this year & 828 OPS for his career.
  5. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, Mass. Think that makes Ramon a more realistic option for sure then. Has mashed LHP for a 916 OPS this year & 828 OPS for his career.
  6. sveumrules
    Problem is none of these guys are really CF. Even Reynolds is -11 DRS | -6.8 UZR out there since last year. Laureno would be postseason ineligible I assume. Benintendi could be interesting, but it’s a lot easier to hit singles at Kaufman than at AmFam & his LHP splits aren’t encouraging, 655 OPS this year & 708 career. I wouldn’t want to give up anybody in the top dozen or so prospects for that dice roll. Michael Taylor seems more Stearns-y out of the KC outfielders having breakout/fluke (you decide which) seasons. Legit CF defense at +7 DRS this year & +48 career. Not much, but a lil better vs LHP 686 this year & 728 career. Has an extra year of team control though so Royals might not be motivated to deal. Bell for 1B/DH would be the true get as he’s crushing everything this year with a 163 OPS+ overall and 871 OPS vs LHP, but he’s also the best rental bat so bidding could get steep. Mancini wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize & seems like the best mix of need vs acquisition cost to me out of the guys likely to be dealt.
  7. sveumrules
    Problem is none of these guys are really CF. Even Reynolds is -11 DRS | -6.8 UZR out there since last year. Laureno would be postseason ineligible I assume. Benintendi could be interesting, but it’s a lot easier to hit singles at Kaufman than at AmFam & his LHP splits aren’t encouraging, 655 OPS this year & 708 career. I wouldn’t want to give up anybody in the top dozen or so prospects for that dice roll. Michael Taylor seems more Stearns-y out of the KC outfielders having breakout/fluke (you decide which) seasons. Legit CF defense at +7 DRS this year & +48 career. Not much, but a lil better vs LHP 686 this year & 728 career. Has an extra year of team control though so Royals might not be motivated to deal. Bell for 1B/DH would be the true get as he’s crushing everything this year with a 163 OPS+ overall and 871 OPS vs LHP, but he’s also the best rental bat so bidding could get steep. Mancini wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize & seems like the best mix of need vs acquisition cost to me out of the guys likely to be dealt.
  8. sveumrules
    Wow. Awesome to see another strong outing (& some Twitter footage) from Kevin. I feel like there are around 13-14 prospects in the system who are more or less consensus Top 20 guys & then there are another 15+ who are legit contenders for those last 6-7 spots. I put Briceno 20th on my July ballot because I wanted to give him a tiny internet nod that insane K/BB ratio (even if it was over a tiny DSL sample of IP), but if he keeps dealing as the summer goes on…that’s the kind of excitement that hooks us all on this stuff in the first place.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, even though Durant is older & more expensive than Middleton, he’d definitely be an upgrade as a Giannis sidekick. Think the Nets will end up with a better deal than that though, especially since the Bucks have limited FRPs after the Jrue trade. If KD really wanted to help his legacy or whatever he’d go to some young, upcoming team & try to put them over the top. Instead he’ll probably end up in Phoenix & try to help CP3 finally get his ring.
  10. sveumrules
    Wish they would give Reetz the bump, he’s clearly figured out the Southern League (or whatever it’s called now). Tough though with Feliciano needing every inning he can get behind the dish & Alex Jackson on the 40 man, Jakson is kinda log jammed at the moment. Maybe after the draft or trade deadline.
  11. sveumrules
    So what you’re saying is over their worst half of the first half they still managed to play .500 baseball while dealing with injuries & going through the toughest part of their schedule with 29 of those 40 against contenders. That means over the other half of the first half they went 26-15, a 100+ win pace & .634 W%. I think their true talent level likely lies somewhere between those two extremes, but if going 20-20 over a 40 game stretch is the worst thing that happens all season, odds are their W% after 162 will end up higher than their current .568 mark. Looking to the 2nd half it looks like their toughest stretch will be 23 contenders over 36 games from 7/12 to 8/24. They then have 12 of 39 against contenders to close the season.
  12. sveumrules
    Good observation & really speaks to the increased depth of legit prospects in the system. Here’s where previous Stearns & company FRPs have debuted on BF.netcom prospect rankings… Corey Ray (#7), Keston Hiura (#4), Brice Turang (#5), Ethan Small (#4), Garrett Mitchell (#1) and Sal Frelick (#6).
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah, I find looking at “stands” more instructive than individual series. Brewers have an 8-2-1 stand record so far this year… Apr 7-13: 3-3 road (T) Apr 14-20: 5-2 home (W) Apr 22-28: 5-2 road* (W) Apr29-May5: 5-1 home (W) May 6-15: 4-5 road (L) May 16-22: 4-2 home (W) May23-Jun1: 6-5 road (W) June 2-9: 1-6 home (L) June 10-19: 5-4 road (W) June 20-26: 4-3 home (W) Jun28-Jul3: 4-2 road (W)
  14. sveumrules
    Hendry seems like a good lead off option given what we can discern about his approach from BB/K numbers. Among the Carolina teens… Hendry 45 BB / 48 K / 265 PAs Quero 24 BB / 45 K / 245 PAs Chourio 15 BB / 65 K / 219 PAs Hedbert 14 BB / 86 K / 256 PAs Garcia 11 BB / 96 K / 285 PAs Obviously age is a huge factor, but that 30% K rate for Jackson was one thing keeping him behind Wiemer on my rankings, for now anyway. Those BB/K rates for Hedbert & Garcia are downright scary though. Definitely need to make strides there if either is going to really tap into their potential. Good news is they all have plenty of time on their side.
  15. sveumrules
    Hendry seems like a good lead off option given what we can discern about his approach from BB/K numbers. Among the Carolina teens… Hendry 45 BB / 48 K / 265 PAs Quero 24 BB / 45 K / 245 PAs Chourio 15 BB / 65 K / 219 PAs Hedbert 14 BB / 86 K / 256 PAs Garcia 11 BB / 96 K / 285 PAs Obviously age is a huge factor, but that 30% K rate for Jackson was one thing keeping him behind Wiemer on my rankings, for now anyway. Those BB/K rates for Hedbert & Garcia are downright scary though. Definitely need to make strides there if either is going to really tap into their potential. Good news is they all have plenty of time on their side.
  16. sveumrules
    Halfway through the season, average-ish offense (below average among contenders even), Burnes & a whole bunch of underperformance/injury in the rotation. Box, Williams, Hader have been lights out, Milner smoking & mirroring his way to zeroes. Other half of the bullpen has been a revolving door outside of a middling Suter. Yet somehow the Brewers sit in first place (+25 DRS, 8th and +4.4 FRM, 5th have helped on the margins) with something like the 5th to 8th best World Series odds per BPro/538/FanGraphs as the trade deadline looms. Pretty remarkable stuff. The other 20+ teams must really suck.
  17. sveumrules
    Good call. Perez has been so average for so long that I forgot he’s having a breakout season this year when I scanned the list. Only on a 4 million deal too, so should fit on every contender’s payroll. Will be interesting to see where bidding ends up on Martin. Would hope if Small is dealt it’s for someone with more team control though.
  18. sveumrules
    Also, now that we're past the halfway point (& with run differential coming up a couple two tree times in the thread) it seems like as good a time as any to link this Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs article from before the Rays hired him about how best to predict the season's second half using actual W%, Pythagorean W% and/or projected W%... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ I was able to combine all three variables into a best fit. It yields an R2 of 0.39. This is, again, in an effort to predict second-half winning percentage. The formula settles on the following weights: First-half winning percentage: 0.14 First-half Pythagorean winning percentage: 0.12 Second-half projected winning percentage: 0.75 Compared to first-half winning percentage, the second-half projection is almost six times more important. Compared to first-half Pythagorean winning percentage, the second-half projection is more than six times more important.
  19. sveumrules
    BPro's Deserved Runs Created does include a quality of opposition factor. By that measure (DC RS column) the Brewers project as the 6th best offense in the NL, 10th best in MLB... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
  20. sveumrules
    Here’s a list of free agent starting pitchers after this year… https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/ Not sure half a season of any of those guys is worth six seasons of Small & the only ones who might be are already on contenders.
  21. sveumrules
    Antoine Kelly with a Doc Ellis special so far tonight at 4 IP | 0 H | 2 R | 6 BB | 3 HBP | 6 K.
  22. sveumrules
    01 Joey Wiemer 02 Jackson Chourio 03 Ethan Small 04 Brice Turang 05 Sal Frelick 06 Antoine Kelly 07 Tyler Black 08 Garrett Mitchell 09 Felix Valerio 10 Jeferson Quero 11 Hendry Mendez 12 Eduardo Garcia 13 Hedbert Perez 14 Mario Feliciano 15 Carlos Rodriguez PITCHER 16 Michele Vassalotti 17 Stiven Cruz 18 Luis Lara 19 Luis Castillo 20 Kevin Briceno
  23. sveumrules
    Jingles is a bit of a gamble for sure at his age coming off an ACL, but the only other free agent to sign for 1/6.5 so far is Lonnie Walker with LAL, so kinda slim to none pickings. Best case, he comes back sometime down the stretch run (looks like Jan 30 was when he tore it) & knocks down a bunch of threes (.423 3P% on 5 attempts per game from 2016-21). If nothing else it creates a salary slot that could be used at the deadline & is just a one year deal so they’ll have almost 25 million in expiring contracts with Jingles, Brook & Hill.
  24. sveumrules
    Feel pretty good about Bobby coming back. Seems to genuinely like it here & think ownership will pony up after he took a team friendly deal last season. Current roster looks something like… Jrue | Hill | Vildoza Grayson | Pat Khris | Beauchamp Giannis | Thanasis Brook | Sandro Only real trade chips for salary matching are probably Brook (14 million), Grayson (8,.5) and Hill (4). Also believe they can sign Portis with Bird Rights so they should have some sort of Mid Level Exception to bring in a non-minimum free agent, though I’d imagine that also would come with some luxury tax implications. More or less expect them to run it mostly back, but will be interesting to see if Horst comes through with a Special Delivery.
  25. sveumrules
    It had been the first part of June for years, but they switched it to coincide with the All Star Break last year I believe.
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