sveumrules

League average wOBA the last two years has been about .308 so looking at the splits below the worst offenders vs RHP have been Koenig (.314) who they've still trusted in leverage spots, Hall (.328) who will probably be more of a long man anyway, and Zerpa (.351) who I have to imagine the Brewers have some kind of plan in mind for to bring that number down. Rob Z is small sample zone all the way around, but he'll probably be getting lower leverage innings too. 24-25 Koenig vsL (51.2 IP) .235 wOBA vsR (76.1 IP) .314 wOBA 24-25 Zerpa vsL (50.1 IP) .291 wOBA vsR (68.0 IP) .351 wOBA 24-25 Ashby vsL (34.1 IP) .248 wOBA vsR (60.2 IP) .281 wOBA 24-25 Hall vsL (27.2 IP) .253 wOBA vsR (54.0 IP) .328 wOBA 2025 Anderson vsL (23.1 IP) .299 wOBA vsR (46.1 IP) .281 wOBA 24-25 Rob Z vsL (16.2 IP) .216 wOBA vsR (13.0 IP) .290 wOBA

Perusing Cot’s and came up with around $2.83B for the DR lineup versus only $1.67B for the USA. With Pujols ($346M) managing plus the bench La Republica easily clears $3B. USA lineup would clear $2B with Bregman & Buxton ($450M combined) instead of Henderson & PCA.

Kind of wild that PTA (& Wes Anderson too) has been at it for thirty years now with Hard Eight & Bottle Rocket both dropping as pretty low key indie debuts back in 1996. Would take some kind of magic to knock Magnolia and Punch Drunk Love out of the Top Two spots on my PTA list, but I’d probably slot One Battle in the #3 spot just ahead of There Will Be Blood. Quick check of betting odds looks like Penn is the favorite for supporting actor but I’d give it to Benicio all day.

Old Walt was apparently in the Epstein Files so not sure he is the best example.

Wasn't able to watch. Did the Badgers win, or was it just a massive gag job by Illinois?

For me personally I think the pie in the sky everything works out kind of alignment would be... Pratt at SS. Assuming the glove is in that +5 to +10 kind of range and the bat eventually comes around to like a wRC+ in the 90 to 105 kind of zone. Split Made and Pena between 2B/3B depending who fits where best with the glove and arm. I believe in Fischer's bat the most after Made/Pena so he gets 1B over Burke/Adams/Wilken. Still think Jett is more of a utility guy bouncing around to multiple spots as needed. See where he gets his first opportunity this year, in the outfield with the inevitable Mitchell injury or at 3B if Rengifo doesn't bounce back.

Jesus. Farther up the defensive spectrum, a switch hitter, and has shown better plate discipline. Stats thru the first two years... 24-25 Jesus (741 PA) 298/402/452 (141 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 18.4 K% 21-22 Jackson (628 PA) 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% Made also has a big edge on the bases (75 SB | 17 CS vs 24 SB | 7 CS for Chourio) though the larger bases and pickoff rules make a one to one comparison more difficult there. Only edge Chourio really has thru the same age is power production.

Don't think they'd be working on anything already, but I'd imagine the Brewers will offer some sort of extension if Jesus has the kind of summer this year that sets him up for an MLB debut in 2027. On the one hand it would be pretty hard to turn down $100M as a 19 year old from the DR (or anywhere for that matter), but at the same time I'd certainly never fault an intrepid young man for seeing guys like Soto get $765M or Tucker get a $60M AAV and believing in himself enough to think he can do better than that.

Assuming Jesus follows something like Jackson's ascent it would be 2026 (AA), 2027-28 (get acclimated to MLB and put up like seven wins at age 20-21), 2029 (???). With the team options on Chourio's contract that would put a potential dual prime window for the two around 2029 through 2032 unless Made busts out earlier to move up the front end or signs an extension that would cover Chourio's last team option year in 2033.

Jesus Luzardo extends with the Phillies for five years and $135M... 2022-25 Luzardo (529 IP | 48th of 59 pitchers min. 500 IP) 125 K+ (6th) | 93 BB+ (41st) | 83 HR+ (15th) 94 AVG+ (15th) | 89 ERA- (26th) | 79 FIP- (8th) 9.9 rWAR (33rd) | 12.1 fWAR (18th) 2022-25 Peralta (594 IP | 32nd of 59 pitchers min. 500 IP) 129 K+ (4th) | 105 BB+ (55th) | 103 HR+ (37th) 84 AVG+ (1st) | 82 ERA- (11th) | 91 FIP- (24th) 14.1 rWAR (11th) | 10.9 fWAR (22nd)

From 2014 to 2018 Lorenzo put up 2,805 PA of 116 wRC+ with a 93 BB+ | 84 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 83 ISO+ under the hood so he got pretty much all of his value in the box from getting base hits. I think Pena probably profiles to strike out more while hitting for less average and more power. The shape of Duran and Chisolm's production is a little closer to where I think Luis might end up... 2021-25 Jarren (2,128 PA) 89 BB+ | 108 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ 2021-25 Jazz (2,283 PA) 99 BB+ | 123 K+ | 102 AVG+ | 128 ISO+ For reference last two years of Chourio (also mentioned upthread) is at 1,162 PA of 71 BB+ | 94 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 123 ISO+ shaking out to a 115 wRC+ so that is kind of in that same sort of neighborhood too.

Digging a little deeper for Pena comps, there are 1,238 players with at least 500 PA in the minor leagues the last two years with Luis notching a 9.8 speed score that tops the whole dang list, so I started by looking at who the best base runners were in MLB over the last five full seasons (min. 2,000 PA) and went from there. Guys like Corbin Carroll (126 wRC+ | +35.1 BsR) or Trea Turner (125 wRC+ | +34.2 BsR) are probably pipe dreams, but a little further down are guys like Jarren Duran (113 wRC+ | +25.5 BsR) and Jazz Chisolm Jr. (112 wRC+ | +21.3 BsR) that probably offer a little better glimpse at what a more realistically achievable upside might look like for Luis. If the bat doesn't come all the way around maybe it ends up looking more like what CJ Abrams (97 wRC+ | +18.7 BsR) has done so far.

Maybe I had Soriano in my subconscious from reading the FG list, but he was the first guy that came to mind when thinking of Peña in a macro sense with his speed/power combo at the plate and glove that ended up limiting him to that 2B/LF zone.

If someone signs him for less than his current salary, that is pretty much the definition of a cap casualty isn't it? I'm not saying Gary is any great shakes, just that he is probably a lot closer to cromulence than he is to sucking. If he truly sucks he'll be out of the NFL.

24-25 Ortiz (1,017 PA | 4.5 WAR) 86 wRC+ | +2.4 BSR | +25.0 DEF 22-24 Rengifo (1,260 PA | 4.8 WAR) 111 wRC+ | +4.0 BSR | -13.7 DEF 24-25 Hamilton (511 PA | 1.8 WAR) 81 wRC+ | +8.6 BSR | +2.8 DEF 23-25 Perkins (773 PA | 3.1 WAR) 85 wRC+ | +4.3 BSR | +13.8 DEF 22-25 Mitchell (443 PA | 3.3 WAR) 114 wRC+ | +4.8 BSR | +5.2 DEF The nice thing about the group of players occupying the bottom third of the projected order is that they've combined for something like 17 or 18 wins over the last few years so they have a pretty high floor. I wouldn't be surprised if they chipped in a collective five or six wins this year depending how things shake out. Something else to keep in mind is that most teams have bad hitters in the bottom third of their lineup with league average wRC+ of 90, 83, and 79 for the seven thru nine spots in batting orders last year. At least our guys can all run the bases and are mostly top notch fielders too. If Rengifo and Ortiz bounce back with their bats, and Mitchell stays healthy (three big IFS, I know) the bottom third of the order could end up being sneaky good.

Believe Jesus wore number 12 at both Carolina and Wisconsin last year. Could always go with MADE 3:16 too.

If the Brewers viewed Adams as the better 3B option than Wilken, they probably would have had Wilken split time between 1B and 3B last year when both were in Biloxi. They way they actually did it was to have Wilken only play 3B (and DH) while Adams was the one who got reps at 1B with 39 games at first compared to only 20 at third. Maybe Wilken coming back from injury played a role in things and they didn't want to put learning 1B on his plate too, but reading between the lines it certainly appears that Wilken will get more 3B reps and Adams will get more 1B reps moving forward.

In 2023 Woodruff threw 67 IP of 53 ERA- | 82 FIP- which shook out to 2.8 rWAR | 1.4 fWAR. He made $10.8M in his final year of Arby's. The Brewers won the division by nine games. In 2024 Woodruff got paid $2.5M to rehab. The Brewers won the division by ten games. In 2025 Woodruff threw 64 IP of 77 ERA- | 77 FIP- which shook out to 1.5 rWAR | 1.8 fWAR. He made $15M between the salary and buyout. The Brewers won the division by five games. All told there an even 200 starting pitchers with at least 130 IP from 2023 to 2025. Among those pitchers some of Brandon's ranks are... 131.2 IP (198th) | 64 ERA- (7th) | 79 FIP- (20th) | 139 K+ (8th) | 67 BB+ (25th) | 103 HR+ (98th) | 73 AVG+ (1st) | 66 WHIP+ (1st) | 4.3 rWAR (90th) | 3.2 fWAR (112th) The guy one spot below him on that rWAR leaderboard in Edward Cabrera at 4.2 rWAR who the Cubs just surrendered a pretty decent prospect outlay to acquire. The guy one spot ahead of him on that leaderboard is Shane Bieber (tied with 4.3 rWAR) who signed for 2/$25M with the Blue Jays during the same offseason that Woodruff signed his 2/$17.5M. With a scantily healthy Woodruff the Brewers have cruised to three division titles and the 2nd most wins in MLB the last three years. If they can get 120 to 130 regular season IP from him with similarly elite rates as he has posted the last three years, plus manage his health so he can throw in the postseason...2026 will be another fun summer with a chance to see what happens in the fall.

The 4/35 remaining on Ashby's contract is a bargain for a leverage reliever. There are 204 pitchers with at least 70 IP out of the bullpen the last two years, Aaron's ranks are... 49 ERA- (4th) | 57 FIP- (5th) | 28 HR9+ (7th) | 142 GB+ (8th) | 135 K+ (23rd) Even his walk rate, which posters complain about regularly, is better than average with a 96 BB+ (76th). Devin Williams (96 ERA- | 60 FIP- last two years) just got 3/51 coming off a dumpster fire season Edwin Diaz (62 ERA- | 65 FIP- last two years) got 3/69 Robert Suarez (72 ERA- | 79 FIP- last two years) got 3/45 Tyler Rogers (59 ERA- | 81 FIP- last two years) got 3/37 Ryan Helsley (78 ERA- | 80 FIP- last two years) got 2/28 Luke Weaver (80 ERA- | 85 FIP- last two years) got 2/22 Brad Keller (71 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/22 Emilio Pagan (79 ERA- | 87 FIP- last two years) got 2/20 Kyle Finnegan (86 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/19 Raisel Iglesias (61 ERA- | 74 FIP- last two years) got $16M for his age 36 season. Ashby is also headed into his Age 28 season while all the FA relievers above are already in their thirties.

Believe so. Feel like I remember him sneaking on towards the back end of a couple Top Hundreds but never inside the Top 50.

Brewers well represented in another projection based ranking with ten guys in the OOPSY Top 100 at FanGraphs today… Made (#15) Jett (#23) Pratt (#27) Pena (#30) Lara (#35) Henderson (#71) Crow (#81) Quero (#89) Sproat (#90) Gasser (#93)

Hold the Mayo for me personally. Very unlikely he is a third baseman in MLB and with guys like Adams, Burke, Wilken, Fischer already in the potential future 1B/DH pool I wouldn't necessarily focus on adding more to that mix at the expense of leverage innings over the next two years. This was a pretty informative read on Coby from back in September of last year. Between the brutal defense and swing I was getting some Hiura flashbacks. At the time of publication Mayo had 239 PA of 184/259/327 (66 wRC+) on his 2025 ledger with an 8.4 BB% and 29.7 K%, but followed up the article with a scorching 55 PA of 370/473/674 (220 wRC+) plus a 12.7 BB% and 23.6 K% to end the year. The Orioles bought into his season ending hot streak so much that they went out and signed Alonso for 5/$155M. Between Pete, whichever of Adley and Basallo (who got an 8/$67M contract of his own one week into his MLB career) isn't catching, plus Ryan Mountcastle in the mix it looks like Coby is ticketed for his 4th stint with Norfolk (where he already has 852 PA) to start 2026.

The projection based ZiPS Top 100 Prospects was published at FanGraphs today and it has TEN Brewers in the Top 100 (most in MLB)... Made (#8) Jett (#29) Pratt (#39) Pena (#51) Adams (#68) Bitonti (#71) Letson (#76) Sproat (#81) Quero (#89) Payne (#90) Article also has a chart with the total number of players each org has in the Top 200 and Top 500 per the ZiPS mainframe with the Brewers coming in with thirteen T200 guys and twenty six T500 guys (both of which were 2nd in MLB).

I've seen this idea posted elsewhere on the internet, and I think there are a decent number of fans (& players too I guess) who honestly seem to believe it. Could lower payroll teams spend more than they do? Certainly. But even if every team in the league had the financial capability to spend like the Dodgers (they don't) all that would mean is a bunch of players getting obscenely overpriced contracts because there aren't enough legit superstars and all star calibre players to warrant that kind of spending. Using the current OD payroll projections on Cots and assuming even a measly $125M salary floor would leave ten teams needing to spend something like a combined $305M to get there. Machado's own Padres are a great example of the limitations of smaller markets trying to spend (& trading many of their prospects) to hang with the Big Boys. They've had a nice run with their 433 wins since 2021 ranking 10th in MLB (Brewers 463 wins are 3rd over the same stretch) but now that Papa Seidler passed and the kids don't want to spend as freely they are more of a Top 10 kind of payroll instead of the Top three to five payroll they were running at peak in 2022/23 and are left with one of the weaker farm systems in the game paired with a patchwork MLB roster around a mostly aged & expensive core of Machado (33 yo with 8/$266M remaining), Bogaerts (33 yo with 8/$200M remaining), Michael King (31 yo with 3/$75M remaining), Nick Pivetta (33 yo with $19M plus two player options worth $32M remaining), Joe Musgrove (33 yo with 2/$40M remaining), and Jake Cronenworth (32 yo with 5/$60M remaining). The Merrill extension was good, and Tatis is still a bargain at $70M over the next three years but the last $216M covering his age 30 to 35 seasons could become a little more onerous down the road when pushing forty Xander and Manny are already making $60M combined most of those same years.

Great Minds Post Alike...or something