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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    One year samples are too small to draw meaningful conclusions from. Keston has been in MLB since 2019, here is how both players have performed vs RHP during that time… Hiura: 743 PA | 34.5 K% | 122 wRC+ Winker: 1250 PA | 17.0 K% | 133 wRC+ Seems pretty close (besides the PA and K%), but Most of Hiura’s damage vs RHP was done in 2019 with the juiced ball (265 PA | 30.2 K% | 159 wRC+ | .415 BABIP). Since then, from 2020-22 Keston has posted a 102 wRC+ and 36.8 K% with a .294 BABIP in 478 PA vs RHP. Over that same 2020-22 time frame Winker is at 137 wRC+ and 17.2 K% in 916 PA vs RHP.
  2. sveumrules
    Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G. "WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general. From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G. They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with. It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).
  3. sveumrules
    If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time. Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent. Seems pretty straight forward to me.
  4. sveumrules
    In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in? Since 2019 there are 226 batters with at least 300 PAs vs LHP, Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 221st. Career vs LHP Hiura is at 39.5 K% and 29.9 HardHit% compared to 34.5 K% and 41.4 HardHit% vs RHP. If Keston is indeed gone by OD that would be one more member of the Addition By Subtraction Club for the Brewers 2022 WOAHs vs LHP… Hiura (109 PAs | 75 wRC+), Omar (39 PAs | 75 wRC+), Wong (96 PAs | 37 wRC+) and Lorenzo (49 PAs | -17 wRC+) combined for about -17.5 wRAA vs LHP. Caratini (123 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -4.7 wRAA) could be less exposed vs LHP with the addition of Contreras as well.
  5. sveumrules
    If Hiura could field like Adames this might mean something. As it stands, Willy’s combination of bat and glove yielded 4.7 WAR last year. Hiura’s combination of bat and glove yielded 0.8 WAR. That’s an apples to pumpkin comparison.
  6. sveumrules
    There is so much turnover in the scouting/development department (the Brewers were literally among the worst in all of MLB before they started overhauling things once Mark A bought the team and that process continued further once Stearns & company got here) that I'm not sure how big of a developmental indictment some of these guys actually are. Another thing to consider is that developing catchers is literally the hardest thing to do, so every team's top prospect lists are likely similar rife with "failures". The most informative thing I think with regards to future expectations would be that despite whatever developmental shortcoming they may have had, since Stearns and company have gotten here Brewers catchers rank 3rd in WAR among all MLB clubs. Outside of the one year of Yaz, most of that WAR came from players that came up through the system (Lucroy/Maldonado) or were targeted by Stearns & company in trade (Pina/Narvaez). Between Contreras on the MLB side and Quero in the pipeline, I think the catching situation is probably the best its been organizationally since Lucroy/Maldonado were coming up.
  7. sveumrules
    Wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers were in on Myers around that price range. May have just been a case of picking the Reds because there is a clearer path to playing time.
  8. sveumrules
    This is essentially what happened in 2021 when Burnes (6.2), Woodruff (6.3), Peralta (4.5), Houser (2.8) and Lauer (2.8) combined for 22.6 rWAR and the Brewers won 95 games. Throw a breakout year from Ashby in there instead of what we got from Brett Anderson and you’re getting pretty close to 100 wins. Those same five only combined for 13.1 rWAR last year though and the Brewers dropped to 86 wins.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, then perfect clueless Harold Reynolds at the end, “how crazy were the fans during that 18 inning game!” Winker, “I wasn’t there, I was having surgery on my knee and getting a second opinion on my neck.”
  10. sveumrules
    Frelick & Turang have had pretty even splits through MiLB, Mitchell looks like the most likely platoon possibility of the three... Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelcik 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelcik 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS Mitchell 22 vs RHP: 268 PA | 832 OPS Mitchell 22 vs LHP: 89 PA | 766 OPS Mitchell 21 vs RHP: 205 PA | 817 OPS Mitchell 21 vs LHP: 63 PA | 732 OPS Yelich (401 PAs) and Winker (299 PAs) have each posted a 104 wRC+ vs LHP since 2020, so they aren't total zeroes against same hand pitching either.
  11. sveumrules
    I added the Steamer projected wRC+ for 2023, that looks like more than four runs per game to me. Last year the Brewers 4.48 R/G ranked 10th vs a league average of 4.28 R/G. Only seven teams - KCR (3.95), LAA (3.85), WAS (3.72), PIT (3.65), MIA (3.62), OAK (3.51) and DET (3.44) came in under four runs per game. I still think there is room to add one more lefty masher to the Corner/DH mix to round things out and trust Arnie to add one before spring training rolls around.
  12. sveumrules
    Barlow has a longer track record of success so he’d probably cost a bit more to acquire. BTV has Barlow in the same neighborhood as guys like Mitchell, Turang or Wiemer.
  13. sveumrules
    Scanning the 2022 reliever leaderboards looking for guys on non-contenders and the most intriguing name I came across was Hunter Harvey on the Nationals. Only 39 IP but he posted a 62 ERA- and 52 FIP-, though his 0.23 HR9 is likely unsustainable leading to an 85 xFIP-. Checking his pitch mix it looks like he more or less ditched his breaking balls to emphasize his 98.3 MPH four seamer (77%) and 89.4 MPH splitter (15%) as the out pitch. Not sure what he would cost to acquire, was a waiver claim by the Nats last March so maybe they'd be interested in cashing him in for prospect capital. Looking at BTV something like Zavier Warren, Hendry Mendez or Luis Lara as a headliner (depending on how far out the Nats are thinking) would be around fair value.
  14. sveumrules
    Beane’s A’s have definitely had impressive success over the years, especially given ownerships near total indifference to the team’s existence, but twenty years ago he was more or less on an island with what he was doing. At this point pretty much every team has an expansive analytics department and multiple Ivy League acronym holders in the front office to go along with their massive payroll advantages. From 2015-17 OAK won the 4th fewest games in MLB, then bounced back to win the 5th most from 2018-21 before having their first 100 loss season since 1979 this past summer. Will be interesting to see how long this rebuild lasts. They’ve let Semien, Treinen, Hendriks and Canha walk in free agency instead of trading them and even with dealing the likes of Chapman, Olson, Murphy, Montas, Bassitt and Manea recently they still have a middle of the road farm.
  15. sveumrules
    Drafted in 2012 so this will be his 11th season in the organization. Honestly is remarkable given how much player movement there is nowadays and he isn’t a star level player. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a “fourth outfielder”.
  16. sveumrules
    It’s [insert adjective of your choice] looking at the A’s Cots page and Jace ($4.75M) & Manny ($4.5M) are their 2nd and 3rd highest paid players at the moment.
  17. sveumrules
    Contreras has also posted lower K% through his minor league career, 20.7% over 222 PA at AAA, 19.1% over 202 PA at AA, 20.2% over 297 PA at A+, all while being over a year younger than league average at each stop. Steamer is projecting a 25.9 K% for William in 2023 vs 27.7% in 2022 (376 PA) and 28.4% for his MLB career (571 PA).
  18. sveumrules
    Rule 5 picks have to stay on the MLB roster all year. That seems like a way more important factor than the 50K.
  19. sveumrules
    Varsho has essentially done two things well in his career so far. Hit for extra bases. Among 160 players with 1,000 PA from 2020-22, his 123 ISO+ ranks 55th. Play defense. Among 113 OF with at least 1,000 innings from 2020-22 he’s notched +26.4 UZR (1st), +23 OAA (4th) and +26 DRS (6th), mostly in RF. Hasn’t graded out well behind the plate defensively, so think he’d be more of a third catcher than a primary backup there. Also has a career 112 wRC+ vs RHP compared to a 66 wRC+ vs LHP, so wouldn’t really fit the perceived need for another lefty masher.
  20. sveumrules
    Hiura (115 wRC+) hit better than Winker (109 wRC+) and Tellez (110 wRC+) last year, but it was in a small sample of only 266 PAs with a bunch of alarming (41.7 K%) or unsustainable (.355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB%) inputs under the hood. Even with ranking 15th in Barrel% for 2022 (min 200 PA), StatCast still thought Keston “got lucky” with actual AVG/SLG of 226/449 vs expected AVG/SLG of 205/425. Among 247 players with at least 1,000 PA from 2019-22, Winker (12.7 BB% | 17.8 K%) ranks 14th in BB/K ratio, Rowdy (8.6 BB% | 22.1 K%) is essentially average at 131st, while Keston (7.4 BB% | 36.0 K%) comes in 236th. Those plate discipline profiles are a big part of why Steamer gives Winker (122 wRC+) and Rowdy (123 wRC+) better projections than Hiura (99 wRC+) for 2023.
  21. sveumrules
    Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections) Yelich (119 OPS+) Frelick (111 OPS+) Adames (111 OPS+) Winker (122 OPS+) Rowdy (123 OPS+) Contreras (115 OPS+) Urias (110 OPS+) Mitchell (99 OPS+) Turang (94 OPS+)
  22. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has BU (bunts) and BUH (bunt hits) headers under the "More Batted Ball" tab on the player pages. This particular tab doesn't show up on the leaderboards though. They also have BUH% under the "Batted Ball" tab which does show up on their leaderboards. EDIT: looks like BUH does show up on the Batted Ball leaderboards as well. Juan Pierre at 217 (34% success rate) has the most since 2002. Carlos Gomez is 4th at 105 (42.3% success rate)... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d
  23. sveumrules
    My best guess would be we didn’t have (or weren’t willing to part with) the kind of pitching OAK wanted back for Murphy, while ATL had the pitching but not Esteury, so the A’s probably said something like “figure out amongst yourselves how to put Ruiz together with the ATL pitchers & we’ll send Murphy to whoever does that.”
  24. sveumrules
    Adames has managed a .322 OBP over 2,248 career PAs. Steamer projects him at .316 for 2023. I don’t think Arnold will give him $25M a year either but if Willy’s willing to sign for something like say 6/100 it might be Monty Hall time.
  25. sveumrules
    Adames is a legitimate defensive SS, Hiura is a DH/1B. If Hiura could field as well as Adames his bat would have gotten a lot more opportunities. Since he can’t he is looking like a fringe major leaguer while Adames is in line for a six figure contract.
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