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NL WEST LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Totals: 8 at 39.5 WAR) 2016: Will Smith (13.6), Tony Gonsolin (9.2), Gavin Lux (5.2), Dustin May (3.7), Dean Kremer (2.9), Luke Raley (1.7), Devin Smeltzer (1.1) 2017: Connor Wong (2.1) Notes: Also drafted Bailey Ober (5.1 WAR with Twins) and Graham Ashcraft (1.1 WAR with Reds) in 2016 but they did not sign. Kind of crazy the extent to which they murdered the draft in 2016 but pretty much crickets since. SAN DIEGO PADRES (Totals: 9 at 27.4 WAR) 2016: Cal Quantrill (5.8), David Bednar (4.8), Eric Lauer (3.8), Jack Suwinski (3.6), Joey Lucchesi (3.0) 2017: MacKenzie Gore (1.9) 2018: Steve Wilson (1.7), Dylan Coleman (1.4) 2019: CJ Abrams (1.4) Notes: Trade Central - Quantrill to Guardians, Bednar/Suwinski to Pirates, Lauer to Brewers, Gore/Abrams to Nationals, Coleman to Royals. Only Lucchesi on the list put up the majority of his value with the Padres. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Totals: 8 at 25.2 WAR) 2017: Daulton Varsho (8.6), Jose Caballero (1.4) 2018: Jake McCarthy (3.2), Alek Thomas (2.2), Tyler Horton (1.7) 2019: Corbin Carroll (5.0), Drey Jameson (2.0), Tommy Henry (1.1) Notes: Drafted Tarik Skubal (3.5 WAR with Tigers) and Matt McLain (2.0 WAR with Reds), but they did not sign. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Totals: 3 at 17.3 WAR) 2016: Bryan Reynolds (14.6) 2018: David Villar (1.2) 2020: Patrick Bailey (1.5) Notes: Reynolds traded to Pirates for Andrew McCutchen (1.6 WAR with Giants) COLORADO ROCKIES (Totals: 3 at 4.5 WAR) 2016: Bryan Baker (1.6) 2017: Lucas Gilbreath (1.5) 2018: Jake Bird (1.4) Notes: Three guys and four point five WAR more than the Pirates.

NL EAST ATLANTA BRAVES (Totals: 5 at 22.3 WAR) 2016: Ian Anderson (3.6) 2017: Kyle Wright (2.7) 2019: Michael Harris II (6.5) 2020: Spencer Strider (5.8), Bryce Elder (3.7) Notes: Drafted Reid Detmers (3.0 WAR with Angels but he did not sign) NEW YORK METS (Totals: 3 at 18.9 WAR) 2016: Pete Alonso (15.8), Justin Dunn (1.5) 2017: David Peterson (1.6) Notes: Drafted George Kirby (3.7 WAR with Mariners but he did not sign) MIAMI MARLINS (Totals: 5 at 12.3 WAR) 2016: Michael King (3.8), Braxton Garrett (3.0) 2017: Trevor Rogers (2.9) 2018: Nick Fortes (1.4), Alex Vesia (1.2) Notes: Michael King traded to Yankees for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith (7.2 combined WAR for Marlins) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Totals: 4 at 10.4 WAR) 2016: Cole Irvin (3.0) 2017: Connor Brogdon (2.4), Adam Haseley (1.4) 2019: Bryson Stott (3.6) Notes: Brogdon got a 5K bonus, Haseley got a 5M bonus. Sold Irvin to the Athletics for cash. WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Totals: 3 at 9.1 WAR) 2016: Jesus Luzardo (4.5), Dane Dunning (3.6) 2017: Jake Cousins (1.0) Notes: Dunning traded with Lucas Giolito to White Sox for Adam Eaton. Luzardo traded with Blake Treinen to the Athletics for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Cousins signed with Brewers as minor league FA.

NL CENTRAL ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Totals: 8 at 54.5 WAR) 2016: Tommy Edman (15.8), Zac Gallen (15.3), Dylan Carlson (5.9), Dakota Hudson (3.6) 2018: Brendan Donovan (5.8), Lars Nootbar (4.3), Nolan Gorman (2.2) 2019: Andre Pallante (1.6) Notes: Gallen traded with Sandy Alcantara (17.4 WAR with Marlins) for Marcell Ozuna (4.6 WAR with Cardinals) offsets the devil magic somewhat. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Totals: 5 at 21.2 WAR) 2016: Corbin Burnes (10.9) 2017: Keston Hiura (1.5) 2018: Drew Rasmussen (6.0) 2020: Garrett Mitchell (1.5), Joey Wiemer (1.3) Notes: Rasmussen traded for Willy Adames (9.6 WAR with Brewers) CINCINNATI REDS (Totals: 8 at 19.9 WAR) 2017: Hunter Greene (3.9), Stuart Fairchild (1.1) 2018: Jonathan India (4.6), Josiah Gray (2.6) 2019: Nick Lodolo (2.8), Graham Ashcraft (1.1) 2021: Matt McLain (2.0), Andrew Abbott (2.0) Notes: Gray traded to Dodgers with Homer Bailey and Jeter Downs for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash. Dodgers subsequently traded Gray to the Nationals with Keibert Ruiz for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. CHICAGO CUBS (Totals: 4 at 13.4 WAR) 2017: Keegan Thompson (2.2), Alex Lange (1.1), Brandon Hughes (1.0) 2018: Nico Hoerner (9.1) Notes: Brewers drafting Turang in front of Hoerner is probably a bigger whiff to this point than drafting Corey Ray at #5 in 2016 considering none of the names in consideration for that pick have really amounted to much and even if we had shocked the draftniks and taken Ray's Louisville teammate Will Smith (13.6 WAR with Dodgers) there is no guarantee we would have gotten the same result that the Dodgers development juggernaut have gotten out of him. PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Totals: 0 at 0 WAR) Notes: Drafted Nick Lodolo (2.8 WAR with Reds but he did not sign)

Draft time of year again and Arnold's first one in the big chair got me thinking now would be a good time to look back at how recent Brewers drafts stacked up under Stearns. I know the draft is more the scouting director's domain, but it's easier to split up this way and convenient timing. Only twelve players total are represented from the 2020 to 2022 drafts (Mitchell & Wiemer among that dozen), so this is more realistically a look at the 2016-19 drafts four to seven years down the road. These things take time. My methodology was pretty straight forward. I went through every team's draft from 2016 to 2022 on BRef and noted any player with 1.0 WAR or more who signed with that team. In the notes section below I tried to also make mention of players traded or who went unsigned or were scooped up in the Rule 5, etc. To break things up I'll make separate posts below for each division, but here are some tidbits I thought were interesting... - Only 160 players drafted from 2016-22 have cracked 1.0 WAR in their careers so far. - Seven years out from the 2016 draft and only nine players have accrued ten WAR or more with Shane Bieber leading the way at 17.0 WAR. The highest drafted of those nine players was Will Smith at #32 with the other eight going between picks #59 and #196. - Six years out from the 2017 draft and the leader in the clubhouse is Daulton Varsho at 8.6 WAR. Only five other 2017 draftees have even cracked 5.0 WAR. - 2018 is looking a little better with Nico Hoerner (9.1 WAR) leading the way and another seven guys already at five or more WAR with another five or so on pace to top 5.0 WAR by season's end. - 2019 has four draftees over 5.0 WAR with Adley Rutschman topping the list at 7.4 WAR so far.

Last 10 years? Hardly anyone from the 2020-22 drafts have made MLB so that will skew the percentages for everyone. A large percentage of players that make MLB contribute negative WAR as replacement players, AAAA depth, cups of coffee, whatever you want to call it, so using % is also of limited utility. The Brewers might rank low by this methodology, but since 2017 they’ve won the 7th most games in MLB so they must be doing something right when it comes to drafting, developing and trading prospects for established players & vice versa. It certainly wasn’t via free agent spending. The Pirates are 6th on this list but they’ve won the 24th most games over the last ten years.

Except Chourio did hit in A ball, and A+, and is currently holding his own at age 19 in AA. There is a huge difference between some fans on a message board getting excited about Hedbert based on camp reports during a baseball starved pandemic and multiple outlets ranking Chourio among the best prospects in the game based on his production and their evaluations’ of his tools. Both Escobar and Arcia have graduated as Brewers over the last 20 years. Two is no great shakes but it’s also not zero. Either way, they drastically upped their efforts and investment level on the international side after Stearns and company got here so I don’t see how lack of results from a prior regime should be held against the new one.

I’m seeing 48 SB / 10 CS for William for a 17.2 CS%. League wide there have been 1957 SB / 507 CS for a 20.6 CS%. Contreras has thrown out two fewer base runners than average.

Winker and Voit were duds (-1.1 combined WAR), but Contreras, Miller and Anderson (4.4 combined WAR) on offense, Miley, Rea and Teheran (3.8 combined rWAR) in the rotation and Payamps, Peguero and Wilson (+4.89 combined WPA) in the bullpen is around thirteen wins from nine mostly low key Arnold acquisitions. The main reason the team hasn’t run away with the NLC are holdovers like Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Adames, Tellez, Taylor and Urias underperforming to varying degrees. Hard for me to blame Arnold for that.

Bummer, didn’t even notice the header on their page. Guess it should have been obvious when they still had the Cubs at 21% for the Division

Short athletic righty with a big curveball, sounds kinda like high school Sonny Gray.

FanGraphs scouting report… Knoth has a lightning-fast arm that was only producing low-90s velocity throughout his showcase summer, but his drop-and-drive style delivery was incredibly athletic, his fastball was seasoned by riding life, and he was snapping off the best curveball in the class. Knoth's breaking ball is the Grim Reaper, an absolute yakker in the 78-80 mph range with huge downward break. He experienced a velocity boost in the spring of 2023 and moved from the early second round of the FanGraphs draft board into the first. Knoth doesn't have prototypical starter's size but he's a superlative on-mound athlete with mechanics that are as repeatable as they are electric. You can go nuts projecting on his changeup and a second breaking ball because of his arm speed and proclivity for spin. This is also a cold weather prospect who will still be 17 on draft day. Knoth's mix already looks like that of a premium reliever and he may just be scratching the surface of his ability.

College vs high school so they’d be on different development tracks, plus with the bust rates of picks in general it’d give them two shots at getting a 3B out of the draft. Especially if they view Miller as more of a mid 1st round talent that slipped due to injury.

Haha thought the same thing, here comes 300/30/100 for a decade.

FanGraphs scouting report… Wilken has plus-plus present raw power and has hit several balls harder than 115 mph during his career at Wake, and he generates that power with a comically simple swing. He's an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, and most of Wilken's whiffs come against sliders that finish in the strike zone but that he simply can't reach. Overall his contact ability is a tad shy of average right now, and will probably trend down as he climbs the minors. But Wilken's selectivity and the lift in his swing help ensure that he'll get to all of his power in games, and his on-base skills help his offensive profile float enough that he could be an everyday third baseman. Wilken has big raw arm strength but his size and stiffness aren't a clean fit at third base in the big leagues, where he's measured against the Matt Chapmans and Nolan Arenados of the world. He'll need to work to stay as agile and mobile as possible to avoid a shift to first.

Longenhagen chat makes Waldrep sound more likely

Mitchell before getting hurt. Wiemer. Hiura before getting figured out. Turang. Frelick, Black getting closer.

If they don’t think Joe Whitman will make it to #33, snagging him at #18 would probably open up money for later rounds

From 2012-16 Lucroy put up a 120 wRC+ and 55.8 batting runs, both of which were second only to Buster among catchers during that time. If Braun is the standard, he had 47 career WAR. Here are first round hitters drafted since 2006 to come close to or exceed that total… 2006: Longoria (drafted 3rd, MIL #16) 2007: Donaldson (drafted 48th, MIL took LaPorta #7) 2008: Buster (drafted 5th, MIL #16) 2009: Trout (drafted 25th, MIL #26) 2010: Machado/Harper (drafted 3/1, MIL #14) 2011: Lindor (drafted 8th, MIL #12) 2012: Correa (drafted 1st, MIL #28) 2013: Judge (drafted 32nd, MIL no 1st round pick) So only nine teams have drafted a Braun quality hitter in the first round since 2006 and eight of those were off the board before the Brewers picked.

Great way to go into the break and bounce back from yesterday. Now let’s draft a couple two tree studs tonight!!

Pretty crazy that with the current state of the farm whoever we pick at #18 likely won’t slot in higher than 9th/10th on the org list. There were plenty of years in the not too distant past where whoever we took with our first pick was pretty much guaranteed a top 3 spot on the org list.

Can Bill Hall pitch?

Over at MLB Pipeline they’ve got us mocked for EBJ2 (Callis) or Hurston Waldrep (Mayo) for #18.

Miller’s 96 wRC+ is 3rd highest among regulars and his 1.3 WAR is 5th on the team. Not sure how DFA-ing one of the five position players we have that’s cracked 1.0 WAR so far would improve the team.

Alex Jackson has a 1.003 OPS in Nashville. Franchy Cordero has a 1.082 OPS in Scranton (572 OPS in NYY). Bobby Dalbec has a 1.057 OPS in Worcester (452 OPS in BOS). Matt Reynolds has a 1.021 OPS in Louisville (400 OPS in CIN).

If a player provides no defensive value, the bat has to carry the whole profile. Recent “can’t miss” bat first picks like Alec Bohm (#3 overall in 2018, 1534 PA of 99 OPS+, 0.7 career WAR), Andrew Vaughn (#3 overall in 2019, 1392 PA of 103 OPS+, 0.5 career WAR) or Spencer Torkleson (#1 overall in 2020, 771 PA of 85 OPS+, -1.2 career WAR) are the highest profile recent examples of how big of an ask that is. Hiura was supposed to be the safest bat in his draft class (and hey, his 1.5 WAR is still the highest of any 2017 1st round hitter), but with no position to play and streaky offense it’s hard to stay in the lineup (or MLB) to get consistent playing time.