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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Nine of my ten on this ballot would be Bonds, Clemens, ARod, Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Rolen, Pettitte & Wagner. Andruw, Helton & Sheff also have adequate statistical cases based on the established standard so they would be fighting it out for my last spot. I personally don't really consider the character/PED stuff since the Hall already has elected plenty of questionable characters & didn't have any problem rewarding LaRussa/Torre for all their successes derived from PED enhanced players.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, that was like a #1 vs #16 first round NCAA tourney match up. Bucks now up to 6-0 with a 14.5 point average margin of victory in games where all three of Giannis, Khris & Jrue have played.
  3. sveumrules
    The HOF adds howsoever many newly eligible players every year as a perfunctory gesture, with most of them falling off after the first year when they receive less than 5% of the vote. Last few years... 2021: 11 new players added, 8 fell off. (Only Buehrle, Hunter & Hudson got over 5%) 2020: 18 new players added, 16 fell off. (Jeter elected, Abreu over 5%) 2019: 20 new players added, 16 fell off (Mariano/Roy elected, Helton/Pettitte over 5%) 2018: 19 new players added, 14 fell off (Chipper/Thome elected, Omar/Rolen/Andruw over 5%) 2017: 19 new players added, 16 fell off (Ivan elected, Vlad/Manny over 5%) Out of this year's 13 newly added players ARod and Ortiz look like the only locks to stick around. Teixeira & Rollins are probably the next best bets, but they'll likely struggle to get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
  4. sveumrules
    If payroll declines from 2021, a few nickles will have been saved. If payroll increases from 2021, those nickles (& maybe even some dimes and quarters) will have been re-allocated to positions of greater need.
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah. Omar improved from -41 DRS & -22.3 framing runs in 2386 innings from 2016-19 to +5 DRS & +12.7 framing runs in 1171 innings since joining the Brewers. For comparison, Severino is at -18 DRS & -22.1 framing runs in 2541 career innings behind the dish.
  6. sveumrules
    The opponent typically defers because it increases their odds of winning. The Packers a 8-3 in football games despite being 2-9 in coin tosses, because while winning the coin toss helps, its ultimately not that big of a deal.
  7. sveumrules
    The Vikings stadium is named after a bank, the Packers stadium is named after a guy that died mowing his girlfriend's lawn.
  8. sveumrules
    I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs. Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.
  9. sveumrules
    Tweet contains a quote from Manfred, ""An offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games." Evan Drellich's commentary is "Translation: get ready for a lockout." The odds of a new CBA being done before the old one expired were always slim to none, so anyone that wasn't already ready for a lockout hasn't really been paying much attention.
  10. sveumrules
    While pitching for a team that went 78-84. Team records probably shouldn't play a part in how the Cy Young is determined, but they likely do. Vuke was at 5.1 runs per game in support versus only 3.9 runs per game for Stieb. Run support shouldn't decide who the best pitcher is & luckily for Burnes we've moved onto better evaluation methods.
  11. sveumrules
    Vuck only had 2 more starts/appearances in that 1982 Cy Young season than Burnes in 2021 - yet he pitched 56+ more innings than Burnes despite the fact Burnes routinely worked deep into games by this era's starting pitching standards. That is the most insane stat comparison to me. 9 complete games to none. The craziest stat for me in that Vuke Cy season is the 105 K / 102 BB in those 223 innings. Adjusted for league average in 1982 Vuke struck out 13% fewer batters than the average pitcher & walked 26% more batters than the average pitcher. For comparison, Burnes struck out 41% more batters & walked 46% fewer batters than the average pitcher in 2021.
  12. sveumrules
    Brook really is the perfect realistic compliment for Giannis. Serves as the primary rim protector giving Giannis more freedom on defense. Boxes out on the glass so Giannis can get the rebound & initiate transition. Camps outside the arc in the halfcourt opening up the lane for Giannis. Hopefully they can get whatever's going on with his back straightened out.
  13. sveumrules
    Heyman reporting its a four year deal for Eppler. Three years is a lot to eat, but maybe there is language in there allowing for Eppler to stay employed at the same salary with a demotion or some such after year one when good buddy Stearns comes aboard. Or even if there isn't, Cohen is pretty rich from what I understand so he probably doesn't care one way or another.
  14. sveumrules
    So, basically, "take my word for it." If you've got some kind of data that supports your position please share it with the group so we can draw our own conclusions. I'm always open to having my mind changed if the objective information is persuasive enough.
  15. sveumrules
    Not sure if anyone hates the $9M/1 WAR more than me. I just think it's flat out dumb. Hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million/historical WAR. For older players, that number falls well below $4 million. I'd say something like $3 to $3.5/WAR for Pina would have been the expectation and is basically what he signed for. Teams aren't paying for historical performance though, that already happened, they are paying for future performance... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ Of course 9 million = 1 WAR is overly simplistic, it is intended as a starting point, not an ending point. For instance, the cost of a win in free agency seems to maybe be trending towards non-linearity recently... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-still-linear/ This article is a few years old now, but historically $/WAR values have also varied pretty significantly from position to position, which is another factor to consider... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-evolution-of-positional-differences-in-free-agent-costs/ I can't recall seeing anything recently that had $/WAR in the 4-5 million range, but I'd be interested in the methodology for sure if you have a link.
  16. sveumrules
    Among 115 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2017, here's how Berrios & ERod stack up... JB | 793 IP (7th) | 84 ERA- (29th) | 87 FIP- (33rd) | 16.0 rWAR (16th) | 15.4 fWAR (14th) ER | 628 IP (34th) | 89 ERA- (46th) | 85 FIP- (29th) | 12.0 rWAR (35th) | 11.6 fWAR (33rd) Pretty close by both ERA- & FIP-, with Jose getting the WAR edge on account of all the extra IP.
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, would love to have the payroll space & roster construction to gamble on Buxton. From 2019-21 he has posted 8.1 WAR (46th) despite having only 684 PAs (266th). The only player with fewer than 1,000 PAs since 2019 & a higher WAR than Byron is Trout at 13.2 WAR in 987 PAs. Cody Bellinger & Kolten Wong have also posted 8.1 WAR since 2019, but needed 1,250 PAs each to get there.
  18. sveumrules
    Believe that contract was signed as an extension buying out arbitration years, not as a free agent.
  19. sveumrules
    Langeliers only has 5 games at AAA, so he won't be ready to start the year in MLB. Contreras didn't really do anything to earn the starting gig in his 2021 look, so Manny gives them a proven commodity to bridge the gap. Free agent catchers are pretty ugly. Pipe dream would probably be to swing a deal for Garver from the Twins (150 wRC+ vs LHP over 260 PAs since 2019). Another trade option could be Pedro Severino from the Orioles (110 wRC+ vs LHP over 359 PAs since 2019) if the Brewers think they can fix his framing (MLB worst -21.9 runs since 2019) like they did with Omar. Darnaud is Atlanta’s starter anyway so I was just pondering if he was worth the 4 million for a slight upgrade but potential roadblock at backup catcher in Atlanta. I like the idea of Garver. MN has catching depth and Garver Narvaez could split C/DH to keep fresh Ah, totally missed that d'Arnaud signed an extension in August, so thought he was a FA. ATL must really not have liked what they saw from Contreras then.
  20. sveumrules
    Langeliers only has 5 games at AAA, so he won't be ready to start the year in MLB. Contreras didn't really do anything to earn the starting gig in his 2021 look, so Manny gives them a proven commodity to bridge the gap. Free agent catchers are pretty ugly. Pipe dream would probably be to swing a deal for Garver from the Twins (150 wRC+ vs LHP over 260 PAs since 2019). Another trade option could be Pedro Severino from the Orioles (110 wRC+ vs LHP over 359 PAs since 2019) if the Brewers think they can fix his framing (MLB worst -21.9 runs since 2019) like they did with Omar.
  21. sveumrules
    The main difference is experience. Canha has over 2,400 career PAs (four full seasons) compared to just over 300 PAs (half a season) for Tyrone. With a longer track record to draw from, Canha's projections will be more reliable. Another big difference is home stadium. Oakland is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in MLB, so looking at one season of things like batting average, home runs and raw OPS aren't going to give you the best basis for comparison. Since becoming a regular in 2018 Canha has a 126 wRC+ over 1776 PAs compared to a 109 wRC+ over 324 irregular career PAs for Taylor.
  22. sveumrules
    Thought I'd start a catch all thread for non-Brewers free agent signings this offseason. Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers for 5/77 is the first somewhat larger domino to fall & could represent the start of what might be an active hot stove season for Detroit. MLBTR predicted 5/70, FanGraphs predicted 4/80.
  23. sveumrules
    I have no idea, but I'm definitely wearing one of those umbrella hats next time I go to Beloit.
  24. sveumrules
    Billy Eppler has officially won the General Manage the 2022 New York Mets Sweepstakes, brought to you by Nabisco. In an unprecendented move, David Stearns will hold an option on Eppler's contract for 2023.
  25. sveumrules
    I believe this makes Brent Suter the new longest tenure Brewer.
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