sveumrules

Best Weekend Update host & Late Night Talk Show guest of all time. This appearance on Conan where he completely takes over Courtney Thorne Smith's segment is peak Norm... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F6dXcW-_Fc

I kinda get the feeling he was keeping the door open for a possible return through the summer, but likely came to the realization eventually that he really didn't miss it all that much. Kinda a crappy way for him to go out with a mediocre season in front of no fans, but he's a player I will always remember fondly for coming up with some HUGE franchise moments and helping usher in this current era of competitive Brewers baseball. Was reading an SI article about MLB Authentication the other day & apparently HR balls rarely get authenticated because once it enters the stands, chain of custody is compromised. Since there were no fans in 2020 they were able to authenticate considerably more HRs & they had a tidbit in there about how Braun was trying to get as many of his bombs back as possible since it was probably his last season. Molitor (125 OPS+, 269 batting runs, 59.9 WAR) & Yount (115 OPS+, 233 batting runs, 77.3 WAR) were better overall players, but Braun (134 OPS+, 316 batting runs, 47 WAR) retires as the best hitter in franchise history. Yelich is currently at 149 OPS+ & 115 batting runs with Milwaukee, so he'd need to average almost 30 batting runs a year over the remainder of his contract to pass Brauny. As a point of reference Yelich notched 29 batting runs in 2016 with a 135 OPS+ over 659 PAs. While I'd love it if Christian put up that kind of production throughout his thirties, that's probably more than a tad optimistic, so the distinction will likely be Braun's for some time.

Hader's taken his dominance up a full notch this year, here's how his four non-pandemic seasons stack up... 2017 | 47 IP | 47 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 1.8 rWAR | 1.1 fWAR | 1.44 WPA 2018 | 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | 3.30 WPA 2019 | 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 3.15 WPA 2021 | 50 IP | 34 ERA- | 41 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 4.43 WPA Anytime you decrease workload by 33% but increase Win Probability Added by 33%, you are doing something very right. Even if Josh gets 15 million in Arby's, he's worth every single curly fry.

Another 2 or 3 years and the Angels probably have two in the top 10 with Ohtani and Trout. If the Angels ever get just league average pitching that team would be dangerous. where can i find these numbers? Here's the full link for position players... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

Which is the crazier 2000-2021 leaderboard fun fact? A) Trout is 4th in WAR (78.0) even though he didn't debut until 2011 B) Bonds is 8th in WAR (61.9) even though his last season was 2007

National League Win Probability Added leaders... Scherzer +4.43 HADER +4.43 Woodruff +3.49 Buehler +3.39 Burnes +3.12 Wheeler +3.10

Yeah, whatever internal projection system Stearns & company have come up with is definitely a step or three ahead of the publicly available systems. At the same time, they were actually underperforming that 83 win ZiPS through their first 44 games before acquiring Adames. Once they did, the projections bought in & didn’t really look back after the first week of June… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=NL&div=C&stat=div&year=2021

I've got a feeling Lujano (final year before minor league free agency I believe, have to push him) and one of the Mitchell, Howell, Lutz group start next season at AAA, and Rodriguez, Gray and Frelick are joined by Campbell and Bello in A+. Ward and Castillo almost have to be moved up because of time in the system (and Castillo, at least, has been putting up good numbers) and Wiemer seems to be forcing his way to Biloxi. It's a lot of guys with varying degrees of intrigue for sure. And that's still with Hedbert/Hendry waiting in the wings. Based on performance/age, I'd probably go something like... AAA: Lujano AA: Mitchell, Wiemer, Howell, Lutz, Castillo A+: JGJ, Frelick, Ward, Rodriguez, Campbell

Welcome to the forum. Dealing from the minor league OF surplus definitely makes sense if Stearns & company look to go the trade route to fill some organizational holes this offseason. The only pressing need would probably be somebody to replace Garcia if he leaves. 1B would be the other easy spot to upgrade, though it doesn't seem like Stearns & company's MO to give up serious value for a position they haven't typically invested in too heavily. Pitching at the minor league level could use an infusion too, but prospect for prospect trades are pretty rare so that's probably a longshot. Here's a name that just popped in my head, Ketel Marte. Arizona is going nowhere, he's a switch hitter with up the middle positional versatility and is on a team friendly extension that pays 8 million in 2022 with 10/12 million team options for 2023/24. Since 2019 he's posted a 319/375/541 (137 wRC+) line with a 13.9% K rate & tallied 9.5 WAR, 28th best in that span. He wouldn't be cheap, but entering his age 28 season in 2022 lines up nicely with our current MLB core.

They've been prepared or amped up or self-motivated or whatever enough to go 26-6 the last two seasons, starting 3-0 in 2019 & 4-0 in 2020. The biggest difference I can think of between those two years & this year is that in neither of the previous two did AR12 publicly state his desire not to be here. Correlation doesn't automatically equal causation (it doesn't automatically not equal it either), so it could just be coincidence...or not. I honestly don't know, but I know what I believe.

While the season isn't over yet, it's far enough along that the general shape of how each team's summer has played out relative to expectations can mostly be determined. I used ZiPS for Preseason Projected Wins, FanGraphs for Current Projected Wins & Cot's for Opening Day Payroll. Total deviation was around 243 wins, or about 8 wins per team so I used that as a rough breakpoint for the groupings. With that said, here's my best attempt at some kind of vague 2021 Fan Excitement/Misery Index... TEAM | PreProj Wins | CurProj Wins | Difference | OD Payroll SFG | 75 | 103 | +28 | $149.5 MIL | 83 | 99 | +16 | $99.3 SEA | 73 | 86 | +13 | $73.4 TBR | 87 | 99 | +12 | $66.7 BOS | 79 | 91 | +12 | $180.1 COL | 63 | 74 | +11 | $105.5 Fanbases for just about everybody here should be pretty thrilled. SFG went from afterthought behind LA/SD to likely best record in MLB. MIL ran away with what was supposed to be a tight division. SEA is still alive for a playoff spot and have a little 2017 Brewers vibe going on. TB won the toughest Division in baseball with a bottom 5 payroll. BOS is looking like a Wild Card instead of a 4th place nonfactor. Only real here outlier is COL, who probably would have been better off underperforming by 11 games, but they're still 7th in attendance so the fans haven't seemed to care too much. HOU | 88 | 95 | +7 | $187.6 DET | 70 | 76 | +6 | $80.8 CHW | 89 | 93 | +4 | $128.7 TOR | 87 | 91 | +4 | $135.2 CIN | 80 | 84 | +4 | $122.2 LAD | 99 | 102 | +3 | $247.7 PHI | 80 | 82 | +2 | $191.0 A group of clubs whose fanbases should mostly be pretty pleased, though there is a little more hanging in the balance. HOU, CHW & LAD are playoff locks. TOR, CIN & PHI are still alive. DET has looked better than expected. CLE | 79 | 79 | 0 | $49.6 MIA | 68 | 68 | 0 | $56.9 OAK | 88 | 87 | -1 | $83.8 STL | 86 | 83 | -3 | $163.5 KCR | 77 | 74 | -3 | $88.9 NYY | 95 | 90 | -5 | $197.6 ATL | 91 | 86 | -5 | $131.4 LAA | 84 | 79 | -5 | $181.9 TEX | 66 | 61 | -5 | $94.7 PIT | 65 | 60 | -5 | $45.2 CHC | 81 | 73 | -8 | $147.8 NYM | 91 | 82 | -9 | $195.4 Here's where the real frustration starts to reside. ATL is the probably the only fanbase truly feeling good right now as Division favorites after losing Acuna, etc. Maybe OAK since they're still hanging in there in their typical fashion. STL, NYY & NYM are all still alive but weren't supposed to be fighting this hard with only three weeks left. CLE & MIA didn't spend or win. LAA eternally frustrating. CHC staring down the rebuild. KCR still stuck in neutral. At least PIT & TEX have Top 5 draft picks to look forward to? BAL | 65 | 54 | -11 | $57.0 SDP | 98 | 85 | -13 | $174.1 ARI | 69 | 56 | -13 | $95.9 WAS | 83 | 67 | -16 | $183.1 MIN | 91 | 72 | -19 | $125.2 The real dregs. BAL has now lost 32 more games (& counting) than the next worst team since 2018, but oooh, that highly ranked farm system. SDP pretty much needs to make & win the Wild Card game to save their season. ARI at least is getting a Top 2 pick? Better than winning 13 more games than expected & ending up around .500 I guess. WAS, flags fly forever & they still have Soto. MIN, more like the Twin shhhhh, let's not talk about it.

Yeah, for as terrible as they looked they are still pretty solid favorites, 538 has NFC North Division Odds after week one at... 46% GB | 31% MIN | 18% CHI | 6% DET Football Outsiders preseason odds were... 56.0% GB | 25.8% MIN | 11.3% CHI | 6.9% DET As long as Rodgers is healthy its still the Packers division to lose.

The Brewers were frustrating for a couple two tree weeks there in May, but ever since the Adames trade they've been pure entertainment. Love that San Francisco is having the season everyone was so sure San Diego was going to have after they "won" the offseason.

Welcome to the Jaguars.

After watching the game today & looking over the schedule I'll say 11-6, NFC North Champions & a loss in the Divisional Round is the median outcome for this team (assuming healthy Rodgers). If they can't beat the Lions at Lambeau next week it doesn't get any easier with @ SF week 3 then vs PIT week 4.

Jones doesn't turn 27 for another three months. Once the QB buys back into the team concept he should go back to being the game changing weapon who earned that contract as a 5th round pick putting up 4,421 yards from scrimmage and scoring 43 TDs in 54 career games.

The inner circle HOF franchise icon QB more or less quit on his team before the season even began. This result really shouldn't be surprising looking back in hindsight.

Packers went 3-0 to start 2019 & 4-0 to start 2020. MLF didn't follow in MM's footsteps his first two seasons.

Rodgers doesn’t like playing the in the preseason. Rodgers got what he wanted, good and hard. Ding ding. Lack of preseason reps wasn't an issue the last two seasons when the Packers went 13-3 & made the NFC Championship Game both years. What was different this offseason?

Assuming the Bears lose tonight...still tied for first place. Magic Number: 16

At this rate the Brewers might clinch before they get back home next weekend.

Score a TD out of half. Make some adjustments on D. Get a stop. Score another TD. Boom. Tie game.

Ashby with the good old fashioned three inning save.

Indians didn't want to take their chances on getting cycled by the Manny-nator.

& another for Avisail.