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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Not even close to Molitor. Braun had 7,340 PAs with a 135 wRC+ / 134 OPS+ good for 311.7 / 316 batting runs by FanGraphs / BRef. Molitor had 8,443 PAs with a 125 wRC+ / 122 OPS+ good for 250.8 / 269 batting runs by FanGraphs / BRef. Molitor got hits very slightly more adjusted for era with a 116 AVG+ vs 113 for Braun while striking out significantly less (77 K%+ for Molly vs 97 for Braun) & walking a bit more (104 BB%+ vs 93), so I can buy that Paul was a better pure hitter, to say nothing of the juice, but Braun's power production puts him over the top for overall production with a 150 ISO+ vs only 104 for Molitor accounting for Braun's 10-12 percent edge in wRC+ / OPS+, which allowed him to produce greater value in over 1,000 fewer PAs.
  2. sveumrules
    6/16 with 9 turnovers for Trae tonight. In the lone regular season game against Jrue this year he went 3/17 with 6 turnovers. We'll see how the rest of the series plays out but I think by the time it's over that 48 point game will be the outlier.
  3. sveumrules
    ...as a San Diego Padre.
  4. sveumrules
    Philly is soft babies. Yup. Philly's D can't hang with ours.
  5. sveumrules
    Entering the game Milwaukee had scored the 11th most runs in MLB since the Adames trade. After five runs today they are at 143 runs in those 32 post-trade games, an average of 4.47 runs per game vs 3.66 runs per game in the 44 games pre-trade. They've gone 22-10 since Willy got here, the most wins in MLB over that stretch. If Stearns & company can figure something else out to kick our runs per game up another .81 runs per game & improve upon the .688 win percentage we've posted over the last month plus I will be impressed.
  6. sveumrules
    Story to Oakland just makes too much sense. All the other contenders are mostly set at SS while the A's have gotten the second worst SS production so far this season. Don't think the price will be too crazy though. Lindor is better, had a full season of control & consensus seemed to be the Mets got him for a song. If Stearns & company do think the price is right, I would guess Adames goes to 3B. Willy's posted career marks of +5 DRS / -3.9 UZR since his debut in 2018, while Story has registered +33 DRS / +13.3 UZR over that same time frame.
  7. sveumrules
    There are 205 players with at least 1,000 PAs since Moran became a regular in 2018. Colin's 1.4 WAR ranks 188th, his -10.4 on the bases ranks 192nd, his -22.5 on defense ranks 170th. For comparison, there were 234 players with at least 1,000 PAs in the three seasons before Moose hit free agency, with his 7.3 WAR ranking 77th. Of course Moose was no blazer (-9.5 on the bases), but he was a better hitter (110 vs 101 wRC+) and also a capable 2B/3B (-1.4 on defense) vs a butcher at 3B who is looking like a butcher at 1B now too, -13.5 UZR/150 in 524 innings at first for Moran so far. It's not denigrating Moran to say his value isn't really comparable to Moose's entering free agency & is much closer to someone like Vogelbach who was a waiver claim.
  8. sveumrules
    Alas, you must’ve got some bad information. here’s spotrac which says it’s more. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/mike-moustakas-8532/ As well as baseball prospectus https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/ Even our friends at brew crew ball have it as more I scrolled down the Reds Cots page & saw this under Moose... 19:$7M, 20:$11M mutual option ($3M buyout) Spotrac's 2019 Brewers team payroll page also lists a base salary of 7 million for Moose... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/payroll/2019/
  9. sveumrules
    Hader is currently first in win probability added among all pitchers (not just relievers) with +3.47. Woodruff is second at +3.23 & some guy named Jacoby deGroom is third at +2.80.
  10. sveumrules
    Moran has 1,363 career PAs with a 101 wRC+ & 1.3 WAR, he has been a negative on both the bases (-11.7) & in the field (-22.7). His BRef page is even bleaker with -31 in the field for only 0.2 career WAR. So essentially a 1B only that can't run or field & with his power surge in 2020 looking like an anomaly can't really hit all that much either. Colin is essentially skinny Vogelbach with a beard. Can't see Stearns & company giving up any value for a guy with the same profile as a waiver claim.
  11. sveumrules
    I agree. I think the guy just stinks. Huge waste of money. JBJ's +6 DRS is currently 7th among all OF, while his +6.3 UZR is currently tops in MLB among all OF. Brewers CF are currently 10th in MLB in WAR. For as bad as he's been with the bat (drove in the winning run today though) we've still been above average overall in CF & are in first place.
  12. sveumrules
    Brewers 3B have posted an 87 wRC+ so far this year, Brewers 1B are at 79 wRC+. Colin Moran is both "just a guy" and would also represent an upgrade with a 114 wRC+ so far this year & a 107 wRC+ ZiPS projection for the rest of the season.
  13. sveumrules
    That's 26 Ks in 89 plate appearances, a 29.2 K%. Since going down the second time he has K'd 13 times in 50 PAs, a 26 K%, compared to 13 Ks in 39 PAs the first trip, a 33 K%. Will that progress translate to MLB? Are the samples too small to infer any real meaning? Stay tuned, I guess.
  14. sveumrules
    Goin once, going twice, going three times....Reserve Price Not Met *Auction Cancelled*
  15. sveumrules
    I'll guess... Wong 2B Urias 3B Yelich LF Garcia RF Adames SS Taylor CF Hiura 1B Manny C
  16. sveumrules
    Marlins last seven games they have allowed...4, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2 & 2 runs. Last seven games Marlins have scored...2, 1, 0, 10, 11, 0 & 1 runs. So over a week where they allowed 12 runs & scored 25, they went 2-5. Seems like a microcosm of their season. Would love to read those IGTs on MarlinsFan.net. At least the 10/11 run games were against the Cubs. Ideally Keston would get more time to iron things out in AAA, but we live in a less than ideal world. I think he'll get the call & a couple weeks to sink or swim while Stearns & company work the phones.
  17. sveumrules
    ...& a hush fell over the thread.
  18. sveumrules
    Kind of a bush league there by Smith to break up the post-Marte no-hitter with a check swing-le.
  19. sveumrules
    Probably got tired sitting around while the Brewers scored three runs.
  20. sveumrules
    From Adames first game on May 22nd through the last game vs Cincy on June 16th before heading to Coors the Brewers scored 108 runs in 24 games, or 4.50 runs per game. Over the 44 games before the trade they were averaging 3.66 runs per game. It might not feel like it, but the improvement has been substantial over the last month, enough to raise our seasonal runs per game a third of a run to 3.99 per game coming into tonight.
  21. sveumrules
    Diamondbacks position players have a 91 wRC+ so far this year, their approach isn't really working.
  22. sveumrules
    His last three starts covered 19.1 IP with 29 K vs only 4 BB / 10 hits / 1 ER. Compared to 22 IP with 38 K / 17 BB / 16 hits / 8 ER over his first five starts.
  23. sveumrules
    The Pirates are batting 228/299/352 & scoring 3.50 runs per game. The Brewers are batting 212/301/365 & scoring 3.99 runs per game. Batting average tells an incomplete story as it excludes walks & extra base hits. Yes, the Brewers have the worst batting average in MLB, but their offense as a whole has been objectively closer to average than to the worst in the league. Runs per game are at 4.48 since the Adames trade, so they've actually been slightly above average for the last month.
  24. sveumrules
    League average runs per game: 4.42 Milwaukee Brewers runs per game: 3.99 Actual worst offense in MLB runs per game: 3.50 The Brewers have been closer to average than worst offense in MLB so far.
  25. sveumrules
    Good call. Any hot tips on the PowerBall drawing tomorrow?
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