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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    FanGraphs started rolling out their annual Trade Value series today and three shortstops mentioned in this post - Jacob Wilson (#48), CJ Abrams (#47), and Zach Neto (#43) - all landed in close proximity on the first installment.
  2. sveumrules
    Before the season started FanGraphs Playoff Odds projected the Brewers for a .501 winning percentage. After 99 games posting a .596 winning percentage they have them projected for a .513 winning percentage rest of season. Over the eight completed full seasons in the FGPO database the Brewers beat their preseason win projection seven of eight years to the tune of an MLB best +71 wins. They’re on track for another double digit overage again in 2025. Crazy thing is even with as much hesitancy as FanGraphs is showing on buying in (& history tells us they are probably still selling the Brewers short), BPro’s PECOTA is waaay dubious projecting the Brewers for a .476 win percentage rest of season.
  3. sveumrules
    Bummer that Abner blew it, I guess all winning streaks must come to an end.
  4. sveumrules
    Okay, so William sits for a couple weeks, the Brewers pitchers lose momentum without him behind the plate, Haase hits even worse than Contreras has, and when he comes back there's no guarantee he returns to the hitter he was the last two years anyway. I'd imagine they've asked William his preference and he said he wants to play through it so they are playing him through it. If it becomes a detriment to the team maybe they tell him he doesn't have a choice and has to take a rest, but it hasn't become a detriment to the team yet.
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah, total waste of a year where we have the 3rd most wins in MLB and are 12 outs away from a season sweep of the Dodgers.
  6. sveumrules
    Yelich (71 wRC+) and Turang (80 wRC+) have both been below average versus lefties this year, would guess that's why Murphy picked today to give them the day off. Monasterio (100 wRC+) and Haase (97 wRC+) have closer to average career results versus southpaws.
  7. sveumrules
    There are 97 players with at least 150 PA as an outfielder so far this year. Isaac's 1.9 WAR is tied for spots 25 to 28 on that leaderboard with guys like Wyatt Langford (recent #4 overall pick), Lawrence Butler (recently signed a $65.5M contract extension), and TJ Friedl. Having a Top 30 outfielder as your fourth outfielder is a luxury not many teams have. Heck, having him as your third outfielder - Chourio (2.1 WAR | 21st) & Frelick (2.6 WAR | 14th) - is a luxury. If I counted right on that leaderboard there are ten teams that don't have even one outfielder having as good a season as Collins is having.
  8. sveumrules
    Misio definitely fits the A’s needs and timeline. I don’t think the Brewers would really consider it though because as good as Wilson is he’s more of a high floor guy. The Brewers have proven pretty adept at producing that kind of player, so they need to hang on to as many of their ceiling guys as they can.
  9. sveumrules
    I don't think the Angels will trade Neto because they don't operate like other MLB orgs. As much as the Rockies are on an island (or an icy mountaintop maybe) of their own when it comes to sheer incompetence, the Angels are in their own equally remote place (the clouds perhaps? certainly not the Heavens) when it comes to deluding themselves into thinking they are contenders when they can't even win 81 games. I don't think the A's will trade Wilson because they view him as a foundational piece of the team they are hoping to build for Vegas. Trading him now, even for someone as talented as Made would be a signal they don't think they can be ready to compete by moving date and are already kicking the can further down the road just as their position player core (Wilson, Rooker, Soderstrom, Kurtz, Butler, Langeliers) is starting to come together. I don't think the Nationals will trade Abrams for similar reasons. They didn't just fire their GM and manager to tell the fans, "hey we're starting another half decade rebuild", they fired them because they think Abrams, Wood, Gore, Dylan Crews, Brady House, etc are the start of their next core and they want fresh eyes to try and start building around them so it doesn't turn into a lost decade for the franchise.
  10. sveumrules
    Looks like FanGraphs has them plus four wins by base runs. 4.77 actual runs per game versus 4.45 expected runs per game. 3.91 actual runs allowed per game versus 4.00 expected runs per game. BaseRuns thinks we should have a +45 run differential (9th) instead of our actual +84 run differential (3rd).
  11. sveumrules
    bulls2024, if you're reading... Team speed doesn't directly correlate with base running. It certainly helps to be fast, no doubt, but the Brewers +11.2 BsR is 1st in MLB even if they're only sixth fastest. That's a big reason they are 7th in runs per game (4.77) despite being only 15th in wRC+ (101), not to mention all the poor StatCast rankings cited (many of which are kind of all saying the same thing in different ways). It also doesn't appear as though you've mentioned performance with RISP anywhere (maybe it's not available via StatCast?) but that will always be a big driver for run scoring. The Brewers are 9th in PA (976), 5th in wRC+ (112), and 5th in RBI (333) with RISP this year. On the pitching side, you seem to have completely left out defense, which is weird because I know StatCast has FRV and they say the Brewers have been the 4th best defense with +20 FRV. The Brewers season long pitching stats are also skewed by giving up 47 runs in their first four games. For perspective on just how insane that is, they've allowed 51 runs in their last seventeen games. If we start things at April 1st their 91 FIP- is 5th and their 82 ERA- is 2nd in MLB. Their defense has helped save them something like 0.35 runs per game with a 3.32 ERA | 3.67 FIP split since those first four games.
  12. sveumrules
    Kuehner has reigned in the walks quite a bit of late. Last four walk game was on May 23rd… thru 0523 43 IP | 23.2 K% | 16.9 BB% since 0523 45.1 IP | 29.8 K% | 8.4 BB%
  13. sveumrules
    Scrolling around BTV they say Priester (15.5), Henderson (13.0) and Patrick (10.6) are worth around 39.1 million in surplus value. They say Ramirez is worth around 55.7 million in surplus value.
  14. sveumrules
    At this point I think Nestor would accept a qualifying offer. Think for him to put himself in a position to decline a QO in favor of a multi year deal he would need to come back looking like he did the first two months of 2022 when he put up a 44 ERA- | 62 FIP- over 53 IP.
  15. sveumrules
    Joey thru May 9th (141 PA) 171/230/202 (24 wRC+) Joey since May 10th (182 PA) 241/296/380 (91 wRC+) Looks like he maybe made an adjustment a couple months ago.
  16. sveumrules
    There is no guarantee of anything, even with a prospect as talented as Made. He started out hot living up to the hype... 0404 to 0529 (184 PA) 288/402/438 (143 wRC+) 15.2 BB% | 20.1 K% But since last homering on May 29th it has been a pretty steady decline in his performance... 0530 to 0620 (74 PA) 266/365/391 (119 wRC+) 13.5 BB% | 14.9 K% 0621 to 0709 (68 PA) 220/324/288 (83 wRC+) 13.2 BB% | 27.9 K% As one of the youngest players in the Carolina League facing full season ball and American Culture for the first time, none of this is surprising or really all that discouraging even. I have faith that Jesus will figure it all out in due time, but there is no certainty.
  17. sveumrules
    Ortiz was a glove first prospect out of the gate. He's been a plus defender by scouting reports and eye test. At third he was +9 DRS and +9 FRV. At SS he is -7 DRS and +4 FRV. I barely look at UZR anymore but even they have Ortiz plus at both 3B (+4.3) and SS (+1.4) for his career. This year's DRS at SS is looking like the outlier to me.
  18. sveumrules
    Here's a fun comparison... 2007 Brandon Webb (236 IP) 64 ERA- | 70 FIP- 116 K+ | 86 BB+ | 44 HR+ 89 AVG+ | 143 GB+ Last 10 Games Priester (56 IP) 59 ERA- | 77 FIP- 114 K+ | 53 BB+ | 87 HR+ 91 AVG+ | 144 GB+ Webb with a big advantage limiting homers, Priester with a not quite as big of an edge limiting walks, otherwise pretty dang close across the board on a rate stat basis. I wouldn't expect Priester to keep things up at quite this level, but even getting fifty some innings of prime Brandon Webb is been pretty dang cool.
  19. sveumrules
    The Progression of Priester... 2023-24 (99 IP) 142 ERA- | 134 FIP- 68 K+ | 106 BB+ | 145 HR+ 113 AVG+ | 128 GB+ (getting a lot of ground balls, but too many were going for hits. balls in the air were over the fence, not striking anyone out. poor run prevention and peripherals.) 2025 (94 IP) 82 ERA- | 98 FIP- 94 K+ | 97 BB+ | 94 HR+ 94 AVG+ | 137 GB+ (ground ball rate up, and now they are turning into outs. lurking around average-ish peripherally, but that is a huge improvement from where he was.) First Six 2025 (28 IP) 125 ERA- | 125 FIP- 70 K+ | 172 BB+ | 86 HR+ 103 AVG+ | 137 GB+ (holy walk rate, batman.) Middle Six 2025 (33 IP) 60 ERA- | 87 FIP- 84 K+ | 65 BB+ | 73 HR+ 89 AVG+ | 136 GB+ (amazing what happens when one cuts their walk rate from 72% above league average to 35% below league average while making incremental gains in K and HR rate too.) Recent Six 2025 (33 IP) 67 ERA- | 85 FIP- 127 K+ | 53 BB+ | 122 HR+ 91 AVG+ | 138 GB+ (now, with strikeouts. HR rate is really the only thing gumming up the works to any extent over the last six appearances, but a 66 xFIP- indicates he's probably had some bad luck in that regard.)
  20. sveumrules
    Best record in MLB goes back to May 14th so over two months now. 2nd best record in MLB since April 1st, half game behind DET. First four games in March and first fifteen games in May were a combined 5 W - 14 L, other 78 games they are at 52 W - 26 L now.
  21. sveumrules
    Yup. Contreras vs LHP 2023-24 hit 336/420/570 which shook out to a 169 wRC+ ranking 5th out of 287 hitters with at least 150 PA against southpaws. This year his 218/373/253 vs LHP entering tonight shook out to an 86 wRC+ ranking 148th of 263 hitters with at least 50 PA vs southpaws. (& we’re still rolling anyway)
  22. sveumrules
    Over at FanGraphs, Chad Patrick leads all NL rookies with 2.2 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR. Logan Henderson is still 3rd among NL rookie pitchers with 1.0 rWAR too. Sticking with the FanGraphs calculations, rookie NL position players have totaled 4.4 WAR so far, with NL rookie pitchers coming in at 2.9 rWAR cumulatively. Brewers rookie position players are at 3.0 WAR and Brewers rookie pitchers are at 2.7 rWAR (& that’s with Elvin Rodriguez, Connor Thomas, and Craig Yoho dragging things down by -1.5 rWAR), both of which are tops in the NL. This really is a weak rookie class…for the 14 other NL teams. Going back to Arnold’s first year in 2023, Brewers rookie position players are at an MLB best 14.1 WAR now, over seven wins better than the Reds (6.5) and Dodgers (6.3) in 2nd/3rd among NL clubs.
  23. sveumrules
    Shane Smith drills Eugenio Suarez in the pinky.
  24. sveumrules
    That's gotta be Areinamo's highest ranking among the various outlets. Looks like he's #17 at FanGraphs, #23 at MLB and #30 in the last BF voting. Love me some Jadher, but he's more like 18-25 range to me than #11. For where Fischer slots in (going off the BF Top 20), I for sure would have him behind all of Misio, Made, Pena, Pratt, Quero, Henderson, and Gasser in the Top Seven. After that I would probably go Dinges #8, Adams #9 and Fischer #10 at this point.
  25. sveumrules
    Assuming that by "earlier in the 2025 season" he means before Misio was called up to MLB, from what I can tell looking at Cot's Contracts there has never been an extension for a pitcher with zero service time so it would have been uncharted territory. For a pitcher with less than one year service time it looks like the highest was Chris Archer's 6/25.5M with $9M and $11M team options but that was all the way back in 2014. Ashby also had less than one year of service time when he signed his 5/20.5M extension with options for $9M and $13M. More recent comps for guys with one plus years of service time would be Brayan Bello (6/55M with $21M option), Hunter Greene (6/53M with $21M option), Brandon Pfaadt (5/45M with $21M option), and of course the gold standard Spencer Strider (6/75M with $22M option). My best guess given Misio's meteoric start to his career is that it would take something like 7/100M to extend him at this point. That would set a new precedent for length, AAV and total money on a pitcher extension for someone with his service time. Assuming it kicked in next year (& maybe had one team option year on the end at say another $25M) Misio would still be hitting free agency going into his age 31 (or 32 with the option) season.
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