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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Do you have actual data to support this claim? Seems a dangerous statement to make unless you have verifiable proof... According to this article (https://www.vox.com/22158238/covid-19-vaccine-side-effects-explained) it looks like... "About 16 percent of people who got the shot in clinical trials experienced a “severe” systemic adverse reaction" Most recent numbers have somewhere around 20.5 million Covid cases in the US vs a population of 328 million, or about a 6.3% infection rate. Now obviously that risk is probably higher for health care workers given their increased chances for exposure, but by how much though? I don't know.
  2. sveumrules
    2017 was Snell/Clevinger's first full season in MLB & was also Darvish's first full year back from TJ, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the three of them rank among the 86 pitchers to throw at least 400 IP over the last four seasons... Clevinger | 489 IP (44th) | 65 ERA- (6th) | 78 FIP- (13th) | 15.8 rWAR (9th) | 11.5 fWAR (19th) Snell | 467 IP (62nd) | 74 ERA- (13th) | 83 FIP- (19th) | 12.7 rWAR (18th) | 9.9 fWAR (25th) Darvish | 481 IP (49th) | 84 ERA- (24th) | 86 FIP- (26th) | 11.5 rWAR (27th) | 9.5 fWAR (27th) All three are undoubtedly great pitchers, but the IP totals might suggest they are even a little more susceptible to injury than their peers. Here are their full season year by year results... 2017 Total: 76 GS / 436 IP / ~123 ERA+ Mike (21 GS/121 IP/147 ERA+) Blake (24 GS/129 IP/104 ERA+) Yu (31 GS/186 IP/120 ERA+) 2018 Total: 71 GS / 420 IP / ~169 ERA+ Mike (32 GS/200 IP/143 ERA+) Blake (31 GS/180 IP/217 ERA+) Yu (8 GS/40 IP/85 ERA+) 2019 Total: 75 GS / 411 IP / ~129 ERA+ Mike (21 GS/126 IP/176 ERA+) Blake (23 GS/107 IP/104 ERA+) Yu (31 GS/178 IP/110 ERA+) Clevinger is already out for 2021, but it looks like 75 starts / 400 IP / 125 ERA+ is about where I would set the over under for the trio in 2022.
  3. sveumrules
    Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million. Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground. Voting for plan B, obvs.
  4. sveumrules
    He was pretty great in the 2nd half of 2019 the further he got away from his injury riddled 2018. After the all-star break he averaged over 6 innings per start, 81.2 innings, 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Add that to this year and his last 25 starts he's posted a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 21 walks in 157.2 innings. This board would be flipping their you know what if we got him No doubt, I'd be excited. That wouldn't guarantee that Yu stays healthy & earns his 59 million though. If the return is viewed as underwhelming doesn't that mean the market held some degree of skepticism as well? I think its a good deal for both sides. The Padres don't really give up anything of immediate value for a playoff caliber starter (that is 34 & costs 59 million), while the Cubs get a bunch of lottery tickets plus a guy who should eat some innings for a rotation that is currently pretty stark.
  5. sveumrules
    Is Yu really an ace though? Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+. Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2. The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.
  6. sveumrules
    Something else to consider is that since 2016 (Davies first full season/Darvish's first season back from TJ), Zach has posted an 88 ERA- compared to an 82 ERA- for Yu, so the difference in production for 2021 likely won't be as big as their names might lead one to believe. The things that make me feel somewhat re-assured about the Brewers relative to their NLC counterparts is (A) they have the lost the least production from 2020 comparatively & (2) Hader is the only big 2021 contributor who is really a trade possibility, & if he does get dealt it will be from an area of depth with a likely eye towards acquiring players who can help at positions with more pressing need.
  7. sveumrules
    I think anyone expecting a Lux type player in a Hader deal was always setting themselves up for disappointment, but Josh should return a better package than Darvish if dealt. Yu at 3/59 for his age 34, 35 & 36 seasons takes a lot of teams out of the bidding. With very few organizations looking to take on notable payroll this winter, I wouldn't be surprised if the Padres were the only organization to make a serious offer. Hader at say 3/30 tops in Arby's for his age 27, 28, 29 seasons probably fits into a few more teams' budgets & should hopiefully inspire more competitive bidding.
  8. sveumrules
    Cubs Dynasty? More like Cubs Knots Landing.
  9. sveumrules
    Here you go, it was pretty fun... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36315 viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36313
  10. sveumrules
    That's a good question. I'd imagine it's a lot of the same factors at play that have the average home in SD valued around 700k vs 150k for Milwaukee. It's just two completely different economies. The Padres principal owner also has a net worth around 3 billion compared to "only" like 700 million for Mark A, for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  11. sveumrules
    San Diego has a 20 year TV contract that "is valued in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, putting average annual payments to the Padres in the $50 million to $75 million range. The Padres also received a 20% equity share in FSSD." The Brewers TV contract is currently expired & up for renewal, I believe.
  12. sveumrules
    Dillon had a couple of very nice catches tonight. One was a bad throw by Rodgers and he grabbed it off his shoestrings. A couple others were just nice hand-catches; he looked very natural there. Dillon had one catch for 5 yards on one target. Think Dillon had two that were wiped out by penalty too. First was when Rodgers got pressured & barely got rid of it on 3rd down in Q1 but the LB was tangling with Bakthiari to keep the drive alive. Other was later, maybe Q3, he was wide open & picked up 7 to set up 2nd & 3, but TEN had a guy offside so GB took the 1st & 5 instead.
  13. sveumrules
    Can't find the article now, but the gist was something along the lines of since home ownership in the USA is around 65%, that means that for around a third of the population their largest investment is their car, or computer, or television, or cell phone...all things which immediately depreciate in value upon purchase.
  14. sveumrules
    Was kind of surprising to me too, but found it cited in multiple sources... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-speech-stocks-analysis/trump-touts-stock-markets-record-run-but-who-benefits-idUSKBN1ZZ19A "Roughly half of Americans own some stocks through a brokerage account or a pension or retirement fund...What’s more, nearly 90% of families who own stock do so through a tax-deferred retirement account, meaning they can’t access the money until they reach retirement age, unless they pay a penalty." https://wallethacks.com/stock-ownership-in-america/ "When you look at the entire population of the United States, less than 53% of families own stock. They can own it through a taxable brokerage account or a retirement account, but only 52.6% own any stock whatsoever." https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2020/08/31/most-americans-dont-have-a-real-stake-in-the-stock-market/ "Of those earning below the median household income, the typical household owns essentially zero financial assets, and of those who do, most don’t have significant balances."
  15. sveumrules
    Would imagine this means they are out on Darvish then?
  16. sveumrules
    Starting to show shades of the opportunism that has put us over the top in the past. First 8 weeks: 4 turnovers. Last 8 weeks: 12 turnovers.
  17. sveumrules
    Does this count as someone from the 2020 draft helping us win a game?
  18. sveumrules
    For 2021, ZiPS has them projected at... Semien | 111 OPS+ | +3 DEF | 4.2 WAR | MLBTR: 1/14 Gregorious | 106 OPS+ | +1 DEF | 2.6 WAR | MLBTR: 3/39 Simmons | 89 OPS+ | +12 DEF | 2.5 WAR | MLBTR: 1/12 If they each come in around the MLBTR contract projection I would probably roll the dice on Marcus. I think ZiPS is a little hot on his OPS+, but even if he ends up closer to a 100 OPS+ he'll still come in about the same value wise as Didi or Andrelton.
  19. sveumrules
    Don't really see how it's a miracle, our pass defense is top 10 & rush defense gives up 110 yards a game against a league average of 117, so the perception of just how bad it has been is overblown somewhat. We've also given up the 3rd/4th most yards per game in punt/kick returns & have the longest average time of possession per drive on offense in the NFL, which both also cut into how much yardage teams can rack up on our defense. Yes, they will likely get gouged on the ground today, but the Titans average 160 yards a game rushing so they gouge everyone.
  20. sveumrules
    Think the big names set to hit FA next year will probably end up out of our price range, but wouldn't be surprised if we're in on Simmons or Semien this winter depending how their markets develop.
  21. sveumrules
    Yeah, pretty sure those figures do include 401(k)s & IRA accounts. Around half the population doesn't even have that, which skews things pretty considerably. You're essentially looking at 40% of the population versus the top 10%. I'm not too concerned though, a couple two tree drops should trickle down eventually.
  22. sveumrules
    Some 2019-20 metrics... Khris 21.1 PER | .619 TS% | 4.1 BPM | 2.9 VORP | 8.4 WAR PG 21.1 PER | .589 TS% | 4.9 BPM | 2.5 VORP | 8.9 WAR Bam 20.3 PER | .598 TS% | 3.4 BPM | 3.3 VORP | 7.8 WAR AD 27.4 PER | .610 TS% | 8.0 BPM | 5.4 VORP | 15.5 WAR
  23. sveumrules
    That's the thing, though. "Superstar" is a subjective label & the only team that objectively has two is the Lakers. Sure, PG, Bam & Kyrie might be slightly better than Khris, but their impact is much closer to Middleton's than it is to AD's. Last year Davis finished 4th in All NBA voting. Middleton, Bam & PG finished 14th, 18th & 19th.
  24. sveumrules
    Pretty sure when established MLB guys rehab in the minors that they usually get a huge spread of food for all the starving kids, especially down in A ball where they're really scraping by. Wonder if Soup went with Frank's Pizza Palace or Tom's Drive In?
  25. sveumrules
    AD aside, who is a better #2 than Khris?
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