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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    BRef list Mathias as maintaing rookie status for 2021, so I believe he should still be eligible.
  2. sveumrules
    ZiPS projects Seager for a 108 OPS+ & 2.1 WAR in 2021. You'd essentially be trading for about 4 projected WAR for 30 million, which means Seager really doesn't have any notable surplus value. One of Lutz or Ashby is probably an overpay, much less both. If a team calls offering SEA two legit prospects for Seager they should jump.
  3. sveumrules
    Looks like Hiura's error split is 12 fielding vs 10 throwing for his career. Maybe he's only a -10 first baseman instead of a -15 second baseman.
  4. sveumrules
    ZiPS projects him for a 98 OPS+, so essentially average & above average for 2B with league average wRC+ at the keystone declining each of the last five years from 106 in 2016, to 98 in 2017, to 93 in 2018, to 92 in 2019 and to 89 in 2020. So above average bat for the position (plus maybe a Miller Park boost) and best glove at the position (+57 DRS/+31 UZR since 2014). They just bought a projected 5 WAR over the next two seasons for 18 million, or less than 4 million per WAR. Seems like a pretty good deal to me.
  5. sveumrules
    This is pretty much exactly it & its been fairly apparent for months on account of the pandemic, which is why all the do something consternation has been even more of a head scratcher for me.
  6. sveumrules
    These proposals are way too much. Hiura, Burnes, Turang & Small is like a Jose Ramirez package. Story is projected at 4 WAR & is on a one year 18.5 million contract before hitting free agency. That is around 15-20 million in surplus value. Maybe like Turang as a headliner then some filler.
  7. sveumrules
    The last team that couldn't eke out 3.25 runs per game was the 2013 Marlins. I'm fairly confident the 2021 Brewers, even as presently constituted, should clear that number pretty easily. They averaged 4.12 in 2020, you really think they'll be almost a whole run worse than that? As unexciting as it may be, the offense improving over their 2020 output is going to be primarily determined by to what extent the returning players can perform closer to their projected median outcomes... Omar | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 106 | 2020 actual OPS+: 53 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 94 Urias | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 95 | 2020 actual OPS+: 64 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 90 Avisail | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 107 | 2020 actual OPS+: 79 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 98 Hiura | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 115 | 2020 actual OPS+: 88 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 102 Yelich | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 149 | 2020 actual OPS+: 111 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 135
  8. sveumrules
    What is BSN? Bally Sports Network, formerly known as Fox Sports Wisconsin. Kind of a bummer, I've always been a Vic Tanny guy.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, you are essentially talking about 6 WAR projected over the next three years for Hader against probably around a 32-33 million outlay in arbitration salaries. If you use 9 million per WAR, it comes out to around 20 million surplus. If you use 8 million per WAR, it comes out to around 15 million surplus. Liam Hendriks just signed for 3/54 & is projected about the same as Hader. That would seem to indicate his surplus value is probably around 20 million-ish or so.
  10. sveumrules
    I don't think that is that number is too far off. I would probably expect a prospect in the 50-100 range or an MLB ready player with 4-6 years of control remaining as a headliner then a couple lottery ticket type prospects as a realistic return in a Hader deal.
  11. sveumrules
    Yup, they were at 25.9 before Arenado deal became official.
  12. sveumrules
    Those standings line up pretty well with the current projected Depth Chart WAR totals over at FanGraphs... STL (28.4, will get a lil boost when Yadi signing is official) MIL (28.2) CHI (25.6) CIN (23.3)
  13. sveumrules
    Even a regular 162 game season, in the grand scheme of things, isn't all that meaningful of a sample. If it were, there would be no such thing as a one year wonder. Many are dubious of projections & they use three years of data, typically weighted something like 50/30/20 from most to least recent. But what happens when the most recent season was only 60 divisional games in a pandemic altered season? Naturally, it should be weighted less, but by how much? Ariel Cohen surveyed a number of projectors on that very topic & I found the responses pretty interesting... https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-projections-how-the-experts-are-handling-the-2020-season/ Some key points from the Conclusions are that 2020 weights ranged from 27%-38% instead of the typical 50%, the impact of discounting 2020 weights should vary based on statistic & specific credit or debit should only be given to over/underperformers on a case by case basis. Anyone either completely discounting 2020 or treating it as a typical 162 game season, is probably hanging out too close to the ends of the spectrum. The answer almost always lies somewhere in the infinite middle.
  14. sveumrules
    Bryn Forbes is to Stephen Curry as Danny DeVito is to Arnold Schwarzenegger.
  15. sveumrules
    Former Astros front office employee Kevin Goldstein is back on the internet writing about baseball at FanGraphs & had this Brewers-centric nugget in his chat today... fake baseball fan: Welcome to Fangraphs! What was your favorite and least favorite transactions that the team made in your tenure? Kevin Goldstein: I pushed hard for the deal in which we acquired Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. I think when you work in baseball, you are more obsessed with the mistakes than what you are right about, and I think about that one a lot. I was right in telling the group not to worry about Brett Phillips, who I saw as a fourth outfielder, and I was right in saying Josh Hader was ‘only’ going to be a reliever, but I certainly didn’t say we are trading away one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Ooooof.
  16. sveumrules
    Looked up a few recent similar 3B to see if they might be able to give us an idea as to how Arenado might perform into his 30s with STL. Arenado (thru 29) 4558 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +120 FLD | 39.1 WAR Ventura (thru 29) 4636 PAs | 119 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 33.6 WAR Ventura (30-36) 3635 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 22.5 WAR Chavez (thru 29) 5156 PAs | 118 OPS+ | +44 FLD | 35.5 WAR Chavez (30-36) 1072 PAs | 101 OPS+| -3 FLD | 2.8 WAR Zimmerman (thru 29) 5183 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +43 FLD | 34.1 WAR Zimmerman (30-34) 1946 PAs | 105 OPS+ | -1 FLD | 4.4 WAR Longoria (thru 29) 4789 PAs | 129 OPS+ | +84 FLD | 43.7 WAR Longoria (30-34) 2591 PAs | 105 OPS+ | +23 FLD | 13.1 WAR Rolen (thru 29) 5122 PAs | 131 OPS+ | +87 FLD | 45.9 WAR Rolen (30-36) 3066 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +88 FLD | 23.7 WAR Arenado's thru 29 production is pretty much right in the middle of Ventura & Rolen, so that's prolly right around what STL is hoping his production looks like over the next 7 years. Guys like Chavez, Longoria & Zimmerman provide the cautionary tales.
  17. sveumrules
    LeMahieu had a 91 wRC+ in 3,737 PAs with the Rockies from 2012-18. It wasn't "can't hit away from Coors", it was just "can't hit". Though he did slash 391/473/591 at home vs 303/353/395 on the road during his 2016 batting crown season & posted a 96/84 career home/road wRC+ split with the Rockies, so he did get some Coors effect. Since joining the Yankees he's posted a 182/112 home/road wRC+ split, an even larger gap than his 154/101 home/road wRC+ split during that 2016 batting crown season. Holliday had a 133 career/151 peak wRC+ with the Rockies vs a 118 career/133 peak wRC+ for Arenado, Matt was just a flat better hitter. I'm not sure either of Holliday or DJL are the best comparison. The best comparison might be Nolan himself over the years... 2015-18 actual 297/358/573 (129 OPS+) 2019 ZiPS 289/356/552 (123 OPS+) 2019 actual 315/379/583 (130 OPS+) 2020 ZiPS 298/367/567 (126 OPS+) 2020 actual 253/303/434 (84 OPS+) 2021 COL ZiPS 289/354/534 (117 OPS+) 2021 STL ZiPS 262/331/471 (112 OPS+) At least according to the projections, the 2020 struggles (9 points of OPS+, 126 to 117) are more worrisome than the home venue change (5 points of OPS+, 117 to 112).
  18. sveumrules
    Since Stearns & company arrived in 2016 the Brewers have spent the 26th most (413.7 million) on payroll & won the 11th most games (373). Not having access to the same resources as other teams hasn't prevented them from being competitive. That they've been able to compete while spending so little would actually seem to demonstrate acute financial wherewithal. By comparison the Cardinals spent 723 million on payroll over those same five years to win 378 games. That extra 310 million bought them five wins.
  19. sveumrules
    If you think we can't commit 20-25M each a year to 2 different players you can forget about keeping any ace type pitcher around. You better believe if Woodruff or Burnes end up as the type of #1s we hope they can be they are going to cost that much kind of coin after their initial 6 years, both of which are almost through half of that already. Cots has Burnes & Woodruff under arbitration through 2024, so four more full seasons. Woodruff will be going into his age 32 season when he hits free agency. Given not too many pitchers break the bank with long term mega deals at that point he seems like a pretty good extension candidate over the next couple years. Burnes will be going into his age 30 season when he hits free agency, so I'd think he might be a little trickier to lock up early. Either way, possibly paying either of them 20 million a year is still a half a decade away at the earliest.
  20. sveumrules
    Believe Arenado has opt outs each of the next two years. Looks like he'll have 6/179 left on his deal going into his age 31 season after 2021 or 5/144 left going into his age 32 season after 2022. Even if Nolan has a monster year or two, topping those amounts on the open market at his age could be a stretch, so I'd guess he'll be in STL for the duration.
  21. sveumrules
    Arenado was dealing with inflamation in his left shoulder AC joint last season, which was apparently the culprit for his diminished power output. From what I could find it just required rest, no surgery. From Arenado's first All Star season in 2015 through last year, he totaled 27.9 WAR, 8th most per Fangraphs. How did he get there? It all starts with playing time, Nolan had the 7th most PAs from 2015-20. He'll likely play considerably less often in his thirties. On a rate basis, his 125 wRC+ ranked 44th, but since played so much, he ended up with the 23rd most batting runs. The main thing driving his offensive profile is the power tool, with his ISO+ of 161 ranking 7th over that time frame. If Arenado's power slips from elite down to even just very good, his offensive profile will take a pretty big hit. Defense typically declines with age too, but true elite defenders like Arenado (+90 DRS / +38.7 UZR since 2015) seem to be able to hang on a little longer, so that aspect of his profile would give me the least concern. Ultimately, two of the three things from which Nolan has derived most of his value (health & power) have some legitimate question marks moving forward. The Cardinals were apparently the only team willing to pay 165 million to live with the answers.
  22. sveumrules
    If the Brewers acquired him, my first reaction probably would have been "woah, bold move by Mark A taking on 165 million bucks with greatly diminished game day revenue at best for 2021 & without a TV deal signed yet either." After that, I would have looked at the projections & tried to figure out how much value to expect from Nolan over the next seven years, which looks to be around 16-17 WAR. At 165 million that comes out to like 10 million per win, or above market rate, even with the 50 million discount. Now projections are just a median outcome, he could easily play above those, he has in the past (when he was younger & healthier), so of course if the Brewers acquired him I would hope he beats them. Maybe put up a couple 5-6 WAR years before trailing off for another dozen or so WAR over the last five years. That would bring him in around say 23-ish WAR, or 7 million per win. As it relates to 2021, Depth Charts had the Brewers projected at 28.3 WAR before the deal with the Cardinals at 25.9. I would guess the Arenado (& Yadi) moves bump the Cardinals up to around 30 WAR, so they'll have a slight edge on the Brewers but its not like they've vaulted themselves into the LA (46.0) / SD (43.3) tier or even the NYM (40.9) / ATL (35.2) level... https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
  23. sveumrules
    Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off. & how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April?
  24. sveumrules
    I exported Baseball References Brewer franchise page to an Excel spreadsheet and, if I haven't botched the edit/delete and got the formulas right, from 1993-2020 the Brewer's regular season record is 2087-2280 (.478). Those W/L records match the 1993-2020 FanGraphs totals. Going back to 1993 produces the largest sample, but probably not the most relevant. If we look at 2005-2020, the Attanasio era, the Brewers are at 1262-1229 (.507) versus 1177-1315 (.472) for the Rockies. The most pertinent comparison moving forward is probably looking at the Stearns years, 2016-2020, which saw the Brewers go 373-336 (.526) versus 350-359 (.494) for the Rockies.
  25. sveumrules
    From 2017-20 the Cardinals won 292 games, the Brewers won 300. Individual season totals were 83, 88, 91 & 30 for the Cards versus 86, 96, 89 & 29 for the Brewers. We've literally been competitive with (& won more games than) the Cardinals over the last four years despite the fact STL has spent around 570 million on payroll over that time compared to only around 350 million for the crew.
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