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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Sure, the 2020 draft hasn't really improved the 2020 team at all, but the picks were pretty clearly made with 2021 forward in mind & we are still the #1 seed currently, so I guess I don't see how that is overly problematic.
  2. sveumrules
    I've got a couple two tree TV trays with my PacBell PC set up in the living room right next to my La-Z-Boy so I can comment on the IGTs & also have TI-85 graphing calculator souped up with Tetris to play during commercials. Sometimes I get up & refill my Jolly Good Sour Pow'r.
  3. sveumrules
    In 2018-19 the average NBA team took 29.2% of their shots from 0-3 feet & converted at 65.8%. Bucks opponents took 23.9% of their shots from 0-3 feet (lowest % in NBA) & converted at 61.6% (2nd lowest % in NBA) In 2019-20 the average NBA team took 28.2% of their shots from 0-3 feet & converted at 66.7%. Bucks opponents took 22.1% of their shots from 0-3 feet & converted at 60.1%, both of which were the lowest % in tbe NBA. We've also lead the league defensive rebounding % each of the last two seasons. I think Lopez works pretty well in tandem with Giannis at discouraging shots at the rim, limiting success on shots at the rim & rebounding opponent misses.
  4. sveumrules
    If it wasn't for Suppan, we never would have gotten this gem... "She can warm up with me anytime!"
  5. sveumrules
    Looks like Yu is projected for a 120 ERA+ over 150 IP which works out to 3.2 WAR for 2021. Quick & dirty you're trading for about 9 projected WAR over the three years, which probably puts Darvish's surplus value somewhere around a top 50ish guy or two top 100ish guys plus filler? Any team giving up prospect capital for a 34-36 year old pitcher with a significant injury history & 59 million price tag is certainly assuming a fair amount of risk.
  6. sveumrules
    This article looks into a Walker Buehler extension, which might not be a perfect comp because he is younger than Woodruff, but it has some good recent extensions that can be used as jumping off points... http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/19/what-could-a-walker-buehler-contract-extension-with-the-dodgers-look-like/ Mikolas (4/68) might be a little different situation since I'm not sure what his service time/arby situation was after coming back from Japan, but Luis Severino (4/40), German Marquez (4/42) & Blake Snell (4/49) all extended in 2019 with similar service time as Brandon. Hitting free agency at age 32 could work in favor of Woodruff maybe being a little more willing to trade some potential future earnings for a guaranteed payday now since he is unlikely to land a multi year FA mega deal at that age. The last guy that old I could think of who really cashed in was Zach Greinke getting 6/206.5 from Arizona heading into his age 32 season back in 2016. He's posted 844 IP of 79 ERA- / 82 FIP- work since signing good for 20.2 runs allowed based WAR (8th) / 17.6 FIP based WAR (10th), so he has pretty much earned his money, 88 MPH fastball & all.
  7. sveumrules
    Cardinals projections were posted today, looks like they probably have the most well rounded collection of talent among the NL Central hopefuls... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/
  8. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has started their organizational prospect lists & published the Reds today, for any who like to keep an eye on other NLC farms. So far all three teams published have been AZ based for spring training, so hopefully the Brewers will be in the first half of teams released. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-36-prospects-cincinnati-reds/ Even though the Reds have picked 2, 2, 5, 7 & 12 the last five drafts compared to 5, 9, 21, 28 & 20 for the Brewers, their system only looks marginally better than ours.
  9. sveumrules
    so then, we can be assured that most of his time will be spent in the OF, right? Batting cleanup, at DH, in Game 7 of the 2021 NLCS...Tim Lopes.
  10. sveumrules
    Saw that former Brewers farmhand Nick Ramirez signed a minor league deal with the Padres today & had no idea he threw 79 innings over 46 appearances with the Tigers in 2019. Pretty cool story.
  11. sveumrules
    It would take A LOT for Tim to become my least favorite Lopes in franchise history.
  12. sveumrules
    He played 147 in 2018 & was on pace for right around the same (130 G with 18 left) in 2019 before he fouled a ball off his knee cap. The four seasons before that in Miami he played 156, 155, 126 & 144, so he's averaged 143 for his six full seasons. If you want to slide another 5-10 games in LF to Avisail it just reinforces the point that there would be enough playing time for everybody even without the DH. I just am a believer that he's not going to be the same man. Not going to be the same man how? I mean if you're saying you don't think he'll hit at a 171 OPS+ like he did for 1231 PAs between 2018-2019, I agree. That is very likely his career peak & he probably won't produce at those levels again. Even Mike Trout is only projected for a 174 OPS+ in 2021. If you're saying that you think his 111 OPS+ from 2020 is indicative of a new true talent level, I guess all I can say is I hope that you are wrong and over reacting to a small sample of 247 PAs (in 58 of 60 games) during a pandemic altered season. Personally, I think the ZiPS projection of a 135 OPS+ is probably a little low & would take the over for Christian in 2021.
  13. sveumrules
    He played 147 in 2018 & was on pace for right around the same (130 G with 18 left) in 2019 before he fouled a ball off his knee cap. The four seasons before that in Miami he played 156, 155, 126 & 144, so he's averaged 143 for his six full seasons. If you want to slide another 5-10 games in LF to Avisail it just reinforces the point that there would be enough playing time for everybody even without the DH.
  14. sveumrules
    If Stearns & company were to acquire Gallo, I'd imagine it would be as the primary RF. He doesn't really have a notable career platoon split so even without a DH you could go something like this to get everyone enough playing time... LF: Yelich (150) Avisail (12) CF: Cain (120) Avisail (42) RF: Gallo (110) Avisail (52) 1B: Vogelbach (vs RHP, 120ish) Gallo (vs LHP, 40ish)
  15. sveumrules
    Gallo is one of 138 players with at least 1,500 PAs since the start of the 2017 season. Of those 138, he is one of only nine players to provide at least +10 value each at the plate, on the bases & with the glove over that time. The other eight... Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Brett Gardner, Ozzie Albies, JT Realmuto, Trevor Story, Lorenzo Cain & Marcus Semien.
  16. sveumrules
    They both have the 3TO thing going on at the plate, but Gallo has also provided positive value on the bases (+14.8) & in the field (+23 DRS, +19.3 UZR in 2165 innings at all three OF spots), where Carter was a big negative on the bases (-11.5) & in the field (-19 DRS, -15.3 UZR at 1B). Add it all up & Gallo has posted 9.5 WAR in 1785 PAs compared to 3.1 WAR in 2853 PAs for Carter.
  17. sveumrules
    I think in this case the author probably just scrolled down Howie's BRef page & was like, "great googly moogly!! Howie Kendrick made 71 million dollars?!?!", but baseball salaries have been an interesting talking point forever. Two of my favorites would have to be Babe Ruth, when asked if he deserved to get paid more than President Hoover, responding with something like "I don't see why not? I had a better year than he did." & of course Satchel Paige, "they couldn't pay me enough to pitch in the majors."
  18. sveumrules
    Could be wrong, but I feel like BA tends to be pretty aggressive with ranking newly drafted/signed players. For me at least, its hard to put guys like Zamora, Warren & Quero - who have never had a professional game - ahead of Lutz, who already has posted 110 & 120 wRC+ marks in full seasons at A & A+ while being about 2.5 years younger than average at each level & whose carrying tool (power) is probably the loudest & most important of the four players. If Tristen didn't sign out of HS & went to a four year school, he would've been draft eligible in 2020 & going into his first year of pro ball just like Freddy & Zavier. Instead he has two years of pro success under his belt & will probably open the year in AA vs complex ball/A for the other three.
  19. sveumrules
    Cubs projections went up today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/ Definitely the most settled lineup out of the NLC hopefuls, but outside of Darvish/Hendriks the pitching staff is pretty uninspiring.
  20. sveumrules
    That's a good question. Obviously the rankings vary slightly from list to list, but the BF.net Top 25's are easily accessible & we should theoretically as fans of primarily one team have a pretty good handle on our own guys, though Devin Williams #16 pre-2020 & Trent Grisham #18 pre-2019 were pretty big collective whiffs on our parts. Looking back on some recent past lists here are how they have shaken out... 2015 Top 10: Arcia, T. Taylor, Jungmann, T. Williams, D. Williams (MLB) Harrison, Lara, Medeiros, Wagner (traded) Coulter (zilch) 2016 Top 10: Arcia, Hader, Nottingham (MLB) Phillips, Lopez, Grisham, Lara, Medeiros, Diaz, Ponce (traded) 2017 Top 10: Hader, Woodruff (MLB) Brinson, Diaz, Ortiz, Grisham, Dubon (traded) Ray (still prospect, hopefully) Erceg, Diplan (zilch) 2018 Top 10: Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, T. Williams (MLB) Grisham, Ortiz, Phillips (traded) Lutz (still prospect) Erceg (zilch) With the exception of Grisham, Stearns & company have pretty much got every evaluation right when it comes to which highly regarded guys to keep (Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Hiura) versus which highly regarded guys to deal (Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, Ortiz, Phillips). Taking a totally wild guess at the BPro list I will say... Mitchell, Ashby, Small, Feliciano, Kelly, Perez (MLB) Turang, Lutz, Zamora (traded) Rodriguez (zilch)
  21. sveumrules
    It'll take a miracle to whip Wake Forest.
  22. sveumrules
    From what I can tell, Montgomery was hired as scouting director in November 2014 & promoted to the front office in September 2016, so he was scouting director for two drafts. 2015 produced Grisham & a whole lot of nothing, 2016 was two big whiffs in Ray & Erceg before Feliciano in the 2nd & Burnes in the 4th. Montgomery literally blew the biggest pick of the Stearns tenure.
  23. sveumrules
    Thanks for pointing this out. Definitely got me wondering how exactly a pitcher racks up four triples in a season & of course Jeff Sullivan had the full breakdown... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-perdomo-hit-four-triples/
  24. sveumrules
    In the future please try to express any frustrations over minor league signings (or any other topic) without triggering the cuss filter or using acronyms/abbreviations for prohibited language. From the Fan Forum Etiquette... "Do not use acronyms, abbreviations or creative spelling to avoid the cuss filter." Thank you.
  25. sveumrules
    If Arenado does not opt out he has 6/199 left on his contract compared to 8/193 for Yelich. ZiPS projects Arenado for a 117 OPS+ & 3.8 WAR in 2021 compared to a 135 OPS+ & 4.3 WAR for Yelich. Given Yelich is better & cheaper (& doesn't have the uncertainty regarding the opt out), I don't think his contract is nearly as onerous as Arenado's currently.
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