sveumrules

It could be a very good move, it could be an alright move, it could be a huge financial burden negatively impacting the Cardinals for multiple seasons...there is no way to know yet. If Arenado returns to prime form, it will be very good. If his offense drops off leaving Coors, it will be alright. If the shoulder injury saps his power moving forward, the Cardinals will be paying 25 million a year for a glove only 3B. Given his 3.8 WAR projection for 2021 & a standard aging curve, Arenado projects for about 15 WAR over the life of the contract, which comes out to around 10 million per win, certainly no bargain.

ZiPS had the Cardinals projected for 1.7 WAR at 3B before the trade, Arenado is projected for 3.8 WAR. They've upgraded, sure, but likely closer to 2 or 3 wins than 5 or 6. If Arenado didn't come with a fair degree of risk the Cardinals would've had to send back better prospects & wouldn't have gotten a 50 million discount.

The character stuff is what it is, but Schilling is pretty objectively a top dozen pitcher at worst over the last 40 years. If 80 WAR & the best K/BB ratio in the post-integration era plus an 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA in 133 postseason IP isnt enough to get into Cooperstown we might not ever see another pitcher inducted. Here is how I would group the pitchers I have seen in my lifetime... (INNER CIRCLE) Randy | 4135 IP | 75 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 176 K%+ | 99 BB%+ | 105 rWAR | 110 fWAR Maddux | 5008 IP | 76 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 100 K%+ | 57 BB%+ | 123 rWAR | 117 fWAR Pedro | 2827 IP | 66 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 168 K%+ | 78 BB%+ | 90 rWAR | 84 fWAR Nolan | 5386 IP | 90 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 183 K%+ | 146 BB%+ | 89 rWAR | 107 fWAR Clemens | 4916 IP | 70 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 150 K%+ | 88 BB%+ | 142 rWAR | 134 fWAR comments: Randy the best all time combo of stuff/peak/longevity/hair, Maddux the ideal "pitcher", Pedro had the highest highs but couldn't last, Nolan the template for everything to come & all the nonos, Roger prolly the best ever but dinged for various blemishes (NEXT TIER) Smoltz | 3473 IP | 81 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 130 K%+ | 83 BB%+ | 80 rWAR | 80 fWAR Schilling | 3261 IP | 80 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 139 K%+ | 62 BB%+ | 81 rWAR | 80 fWAR Halladay | 2749 IP | 76 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 109 K%+ | 62 BB%+ | 71 rWAR | 65 fWAR Mussina | 3562 IP | 82 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 121 K%+ | 61 BB%+ | 82 rWAR | 81 fWAR Glavine | 4413 IP | 86 ERA- | 94 FIP- | 84 K%+ | 93 BB%+ | 88 rWAR | 67 fWAR Brown | 3256 IP | 78 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 109 K%+ | 75 BB%+ | 73 rWAR | 77 fWAR Pettitte | 3316 IP | 86 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 104 K%+ | 84 BB%+ | 62 rWAR | 68 fWAR Sabathia | 3577 IP | 86 ERA- | 87 FIP- | 114 K%+ | 89 BB%+ | 69 rWAR | 67 fWAR comments: Smoltz is Schilling, Finkle is Einhorn. Halladay's peak gets him the next spot for me. Moose over Glavine on the basis of FIP. Kevin Brown allowed the lowest HR9 of the last 40 years among all SP, which seems kind of significant given the era. I'd vote for Andy & CC both, Sabathia a higher peak but Pettitte the postseason edge. (STILL GOING) Kershaw | 2333 IP | 63 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 135 K%+ | 76 BB%+ | 75 rWAR | 66 fWAR Verlander | 2988 IP | 78 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 127 K%+ | 85 BB%+ | 77 rWAR | 72 fWAR Scherzer | 2357 IP | 77 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 142 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 60 rWAR | 60 fWAR Greinke | 2939 IP | 80 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 115 K%+ | 68 BB%+ | 68 rWAR | 63 fWAR Sale | 1629 IP | 71 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 148 K%+ | 71 BB%+ | 45 rWAR | 45 fWAR deGrom | 1169 IP | 67 ERA- | 67 FIP- | 133 K%+ | 73 BB%+ | 35 rWAR | 34 fWAR Hamels | 2698 IP | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP- | 117 K%+ | 84 BB%+ | 61 rWAR | 52 fWAR Felix | 2729 IP | 84 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 119 K%+ | 87 BB%+ | 57 rWAR | 54 bWAR comments: Kershaw on track for inner circle, Verlander has the edge on Fame but is essentially Kevin Brown, Scherzer/Greinke need a couple more good seasons to get out of Pettitte/Sabathia territory, can Sale put up another tree four years post TJ?, deGrom only 1700 IP short of Pedro's career, Cole/King Felix prolly in this next category... (JUST MISSED) Johan | 2025 IP | 74 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 142 K%+ | 81 BB%+ | 55 rWAR | 46 fWAR (Sandy | 2324 IP | 75 ERA- | 75 FIP- | 173 K%+ | 107 BB%+ | 60 rWAR | 55 fWAR) Gooden | 2800 IP | 90 ERA- I 83 FIP- | 128 K%+ | 94 BB%+ | 50 rWAR | 57 fWAR Wells | 3439 IP | 93 ERA- | 90 FIP- | 97 K%+ | 56 BB%+ | 55 rWAR | 58 fAR Buehrle | 3283 IP | 87 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 78 K%+ | 65 BB%+ | 61 rWAR | 52 fWAR Cone | 2898 IP | 84 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 141 K%+ | 106 BB%+ | 61 rWAR | 56 fWAR SBRHGN | 2562 IP | 80 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 110 K%+ | 53 BB%+ | 60 rWAR | 55 fWAR Hudson | 3126 IP | 83 ERA- | 90 FIP- | 92 K%+ | 83 BB%+ | 63 rWAR | 49 fWAR Oswalt | 2245 IP | 79 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 112 K%+ | 65 BB%+ | 54 rWAR | 53 fWAR Cliffly | 2156 IP | 84 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 114 K%+ | 63 BB%+ | 46 rWAR | 48 fWAR Sheets | 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 117 K%+ | 60 BB%+ | 26 rWAR | 32 fWAR Teddy | 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 128 K%+ | 88 BB%+ | 27 rWAR | 27 fWAR comments: Johan is right on the line of last guy in/first guy out for me but I'd prolly go with IN since he's more or less contemporary Koufax, Doctor K is just out, kinda crazy how similar Boomer & Buehrle are, ok, just had to throw in the Brewers all time co-aces at the end for my own (& hopefully your) bemusement.

From 2018-20, Ozuna posted a +4 DRS/+6.9 UZR in 2,557 innings compared to -5 DRS/+2.7 UZR in 1,989 innings for Avisail & -7 DRS/-0.9 UZR in 2,793 innings for Yelich. When Marcell won the GG in 2017 he posted +7 DRS/+3.1 UZR, both of which were 2nd among qualified NL LF behind only Adam Duvall at +11 DRS/+4.9 UZR. Ozuna has played 69 of his 991 career games against the Brewers, so while we may have observed around 7% of his career outfield play we have not observed the other 93%.

Looking closer at the numbers so far the only team that's really closed the gap in the East is probably Brooklyn, none of the other presumptive East contenders: Philly (2.84 SRS +3.4 net rating), Boston (0.54 SRS +0.5 net rating), Indy (1.27 SRS +2.0 net rating), Miami (-2.55 SRS -2.6 net rating) or Toronto (-0.35 SRS +0.4 net rating) have really come close to matching the Bucks performance this season.

In 2018-19 the Bucks SRS (8.05) & net rating (+8.5) were both best in the NBA. Same thing in 2019-20 with a 9.41 SRS & +9.5 net rating. Through the first 14 games this season the Bucks were at 8.82 SRS & a +9.6 net rating, both of which were 2nd only to the Lakers, so on a macro level they have been comparable to to the last two seasons thus far, with the obvious caveats of it being a smaller sample & pretty considerable roster turnover. Jrue has been a clear upgrade over Bledsoe to my eyes. Plays with way more control. Portis has looked good as a sixth man that can score in a variety of ways. But yeah, don't really trust anyone outside of the top six guys in a playoff series. If they can stay healthy & find a backup point/wing via trade/buyout they have as good a chance to beat the Lakers as anyone.

If it makes you feel any better, Robertson is the most expensive signing among NL Central teams thus far. The Cubs, Cardinals & Reds have done even less than us on the player acquisition front while also suffering more impactful losses via non tender (Schwarber, Wong, Bradley), free agency (Lester, Quintana, Molina, Wainwright, Bauer) & trade (Darvish, Iglesias).

After the loss to the Lakers tonight, 538 has the Bucks at Make Finals (26%) Win Finals (12%). Other East contenders are at... Nets (MF 27% WF 13%) Celtics (MF 20% WF 9%) 76ers (MF 15% WF 6%) Heat (MF 4% WF 1%) West is essentially Lakers (MF 41% WF 27%) in a class of their own then the Clippers (MF 24% WF 14%) in the 2-4 tier with the Bucks & Nets. Assuming health this team's floor should be the ECF. For Bud to keep his job I think they need to at least make the Finals & be competitive once they get there.

This link does a pretty good job breaking down the guarantee structure for players like Robertson who are still arbitration eligible... http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/guaranteed-contract Pertinent text... Arbitration contracts are not guaranteed either, as a club can release a player on or before the 16th day of Spring Training and be responsible for only 30 days worth of pay. Players cut between the 17th and the final day of Spring Training must be compensated for 45 days worth of pay (at the prorated version of their arbitration salary). But if a player that agreed to an arbitration salary breaks camp with the club, his contract is fully guaranteed.

The Brewers didn't really sign anyone of note during Stearns & company's first international period in 2016, then Larry Ernesto & Carlos Rodriguez got million plus bonuses in 2017. They'll be playing their age 20 seasons in 2021. More recent notable signings like Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez, Jeferson Quero & Luis Medina will all be playing their age 18 seasons in 2021. These things take time. Are any of those guys Venezuelan? Honestly I could only think of Arcia/Alcides Escobar. Obviously since both are failed MLB products after being high end prospects. I’m sure we have signed a lot of Venezuelan guys over the years, I just don’t recall many being notable major signings. Yeah, every guy I mentioned besides Ernesto is Venezuelan. The Brewers seem to have placed an emphasis on VZ the last few years as other teams have shied away due to the turmoil there. Will it pay off in the long run? I don't know, but the level of effort being put into the Latin American market seems to be at a peak for the franchise's history. Escobar's first minor league season was in 2004, a dozen years before Stearns & company got here, Arcia had already been in the system five years before Stearns & company got here, I don't really see how their careers are all that relevant to teenagers in the year 2021 who are coming up through a largely different developemental system.

He definitely had the Brewers number in 2018, holding them to a 196/256/324 line in 162 PAs over 7 starts, though the Crew fared a little better in 2019, posting a 262/324/500 line in 137 PAs over 6 starts. Quintana had a couple flukey injuries in 2020, but from 2013-19 he made the most starts & threw the 5th most innings in MLB. Hopefully Jose can get back on that track & help solve the Angels pitching woahs (27th in runs allowed WAR during the Trout era).

Sutton made 34 starts & threw 226 innings at age 40 in 1985. No MLB pitcher has thrown 226 innings in a season since 2016.

If you didn't watch the MCU films that lead up to WandaVision, I would recommend watching the "Marvel Legends" episodes for Scarlet Witch and Vision, since they basically feed you the portions of the movie which set up the series. It's part of the Disney+ subscription, which I signed up for on Friday to watch the show. Thanks for the heads up, those Marvel Legends character shorts definitely provided some helpful context. The previews having that Truman Show/Philip K. Dick constructed reality vibe was enough to pique my curiosity & I thought the first two episodes definitely delivered.

LOL, Steven Cohen lecturing about integrity. What a joke! Hey now, Steve Cohen didn't get 14 billion buckaroo banzais by acting without integrity. Every single one of his dollars was ethically sourced & now lives a peaceful free range lifestyle.

Yeah, Musgrove is kind of tricky to pin down. Out of 75 pitchers with at least 300 IP from 2018-20 Joe ranks 29th by FIP- (86) but has been essentially league average with a 101 ERA-, making him the fourth worst FIP under-performer in the sample. ZiPS projects Musgrove for 140 IP with a 92 ERA- for 2021 (2.4 WAR), which makes him kind of a slightly souped up version of Houser, who's projected at 123 IP / 96 ERA- / 1.7 WAR.

Jon Lester signing with the Nationals. One year with a mutual option per Passan.

Never really been a comic book reader, haven't seen anything in the MCU...but I am super intrigued by WandaVision. Will definitely be checking it out. Also, not sure how many here have ever had the pleasure of seeing John Luries's show from the early 1990's Fishing with John, where he took celeb guests like Dennis Hopper, Willem Dafoe, Tom Waits & Jim Jarmusch on ramshackle angling excursions around the world, but it looks like his new show Painting With John premieres on HBO this Friday.

Nice to see. Why do I feel like this will receive much less BF.net traction than when BA ranked our farm system the worst in all of MLB?

538 has the win probabilities at (63%) GB (37%) TB, I'd probably have it closer to (55%) GB (45%) TB, but then again I'm just a human being who sometimes has feelings, not a computer.

No doubt, Giannis has areas of his game where he could still make large improvements. Gotta be pretty scary for the rest of the league that the two time reigning MVP still has room to get even better.

This is Giannis's 8th season overall & 5th as an All-NBA caliber player. Jordan won his first title in his 7th season. LeBron won his first title in his 9th season & needed to form a super team to do it. Durant win his first ring in his 10th season & needed to join an already historically great Warriors team to do it. I guess Kobe won his first ring in his 4th season, but he was playing with Shaq, who was da real MVP & in his 8th season. Giannis is pretty much right on schedule as far as Championship timelines go.

It is a fact that the only position player we have produced is Hiura since Stearns & company took over, but how does that compare to MLB as a whole? In the 2016 draft there were 11 players available when the Brewers picked that have gotten 200 MLB ABs thus far. In 2017, Keston was the only player available when the Brewers picked that currently has 200 MLB ABs. The 2018, 2019 & 2020 drafts have predictably produced zero players with at least 200 MLB ABs so far. By producing one position player with at least 200 ABs from the last five drafts the Brewers are already ahead of the 18 teams who have produced zero. Given standard prospect development timetables, expecting a caché of MLB ready position player prospects in such a short time frame seems unrealistic to me.

Stearns wasn't here in 2015, so did Melvin pick Grisham then or did Montgomery? Has a great reputation? For what exactly? In 2011 he drafted Trevor Bauer & Archie Bradley 3rd & 7th, unless the DBacks also operate under the "GM makes first round picks" methodology. Those look like pretty good picks until you see Anthony Rendon & Fracisco Lindor went 6th & 8th. Whoops. In 2012 the DBacks took Stryker Trahan in the first round, a HS catcher with plus power who never made MLB. The only legit MLB player in their whole draft was Jake Lamb in the 6th round. The first four picks in the DBacks 2013 draft all made MLB, so that was an improvement, but they combined for -3 WAR so maybe not. Again, only one legit MLB player came out of the draft, Brad Keller in the 8th round. The highlights of the DBacks 2014 draft were Touki Toussaint & Isan Diaz, who have thus far combined for -2 WAR. So a guy gets a great reputation for maybe drafting Bauer/Bradley, then blowing rounds one through five in the next three straight drafts?

From what I can tell, Montgomery was hired as scouting director in November 2014 & promoted to the front office in September 2016, so he was scouting director for two drafts. 2015 produced Grisham & a whole lot of nothing, 2016 was two big whiffs in Ray & Erceg before Feliciano in the 2nd & Burnes in the 4th. Montgomery literally blew the biggest pick of the Stearns tenure. Also, since we're talking about scouting directors, you kind of ghosted on the Ray Montgomery thread awhile back. Still curious how you feel our drafts have suffered greatly since he left when he really only ever drafted two guys in Grisham/Burnes, maybe a third in Feliciano, & also blew the highest pick we've had since Stearns & company got here taking Ray 5th overall?

Do Stearns & company draft them every year or does the scouting director? Which weak hitting middle infielders did the Brewers draft in 2016, 2017 & 2019?