sveumrules

If they could have foreseen the global pandemic, I'm guessing they might have waited on the Yelich extension.

That's the big question. There's so many variables at play it's hard to isolate them in order to suss out what is real & what is noise. One thing that would lend credence to the possibility Omar was maybe "coached up" on his receiving technique is that even though it was a short season, he still had 965 pitches in what StatCast defines as the shadow zone, that is a lot of opportunities. StatCast breaks the shadow zone into eight quadrants, with Narvaez seeing improvement in seven of the eight quadrants from 2019 to 2020. Outside/inside is relative to a RH batter... Zone 11 (High/Inside) | 2019: 19.7% | 2020: 28.4% (+8.7%) Zone 12 (High) | 2019: 42.8% | 2020: 54.1% (+11.3%) Zone 13 (High/Outside) | 2019: 30.8% | 2020: 16.9% (-13.9%) Zone 14 (Inside) | 2019: 58.7% | 2020: 66.9% (+8.2%) Zone 16 (Outside) | 2019: 64.7% | 2020: 68.8% (+4.1%) Zone 17 (Low/Inside) | 2019: 33.2% | 2020: 44.7% (+11.5%) Zone 18 (Low) | 2019: 45.6% | 2020: 55.2% (+9.6%) Zone 19 (Low/Outside) | 2019: 27.4% | 2020: 39.0% (+11.6%)

Pre-Pandemic Brewers opening day payroll came in around 97 million. If I added everything correctly wallus comes in around 95 million, all salaries & Arby's estimates from Cot's... Cain (17) Yelich (14) Didi (13) Avisail (10.75) Joc (9) Manea (4.85) Woodruff (3.5) Lindblom (3) Knebel (3) Omar (2.9) Galvis (2) Davis (1.85) Suter (1.5) Peralta (1.25) = 87.6 million, + 12 @ 600K = 94.8 million. Yeah, probably higher than what opening day payroll will be for 2021, but not adding millions upon millions compared to 2020. I'd imagine we'll come in around 80-85 million, which depending on trades/tender decisions should still leave enough in the cookie jar to sign a couple two tree guys around five to seven million each.

Any statistic needs to be considered with a certain degree of context, some moreso than others. Which do you think are meaningless?

When Lasry & Edens took over, the Bucks had been 8th Seed Champions for 20 years. This will be our third consecutive season as legit title contenders. That's enough for "much better off" in my book. Yes, that is almost exclusively a result of the transformation Giannis has undergone since they bought the team (& kept it in Milwaukee & got a new arena built & made dowtown a destination again), but they've created an organizational culture & infrastructure that has Giannis at least considering staying here long term, which is pretty much all that matters.

The reason you give him more opportunities to improve is because even with as bad as he's been at second, he's still provided more value than he would have as a full time DH. BRef has Hiura at -13 fielding, +3 positional, (-10 total) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -12 positional adjustment. FanGraphs has a harsher DH penalty, so they've got Keston at -12.2 fielding, +0.8 positionsl (-11.4) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -14 positional adjustment. If he can improve to say a -5 fielder at 2B, that would be almost a full win more valuable than the same offensive production at DH. I also think when the DH comes to the NL to stay that Stearns & company will prefer the additional flexibility provided by rotating guys through the spot over having a DH only type player on the roster.

Hiura's fielding was always the big question mark, though "will he make enough contact?" has maybe overtaken the conversation at this point. Keston currently has 130 games & 1085 innings at second with metrics that look like this... 2019: 679 Innings | DRS: -5 | UZR: -8.2 | OAA: -9 2020: 406 Innings | DRS: -8 | UZR: -4.0 | OAA: -2 Two of the three had him less bad in 2020, but in samples that small there is a lot more noise. Around -11 to -13 for his career lines up with the eye test, but you can't get better without reps & 24 seems a little young to become a full time DH, so my best guess for 2021 is the Brewers will probably try to get Keston around 110 games at 2B & another 40 at DH, assuming that is an option. Though If he can't figure out the approach/contact issues, the fielding stuff is all moot anyway.

Yup, the Brewers offense was so bad in 2020 that the best thing about it was their catchers' defense. Assuming they are all back, a big part of how the 2021 offense shakes out will come down to Christian, Keston, Avisail, Omar & Luis. Below I've listed each player's projected OPS+ entering 2020 followed by their actual OPS+ from the pandemic altered season. What I'm curious about is just how much those hundred or two plate appearances from 2020 will impact their projections for 2021. Player | 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS + | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ Yelich | 149 | 111 | ??? Hiura | 115 | 88 | ??? Garcia | 107 | 79 | ??? Narvaez | 106 | 53 | ??? Urias | 95 | 64 | ??? My guesses are they will come in around 136 (Yelich), 104 (Hiura), 95 (Avisail), 91 (Omar) & 87 (Urias). My hope is that all five of them blow by those projections and end up closer to like 150 (Yelich), 120 (Hiura) & 110 (Avisail, Omar, Urias).

Welcome to the board, Brock42. Agree that it should be a really interesting decision. Narvaez obviously has the higher upside on offense, but was so bad in 2020 he probably won't be projected all that much better than Pina for 2021. Manny is no doubt the better defender, but Narvaez graded out really well by the framing metrics in 2020, so if the Brewers brass believes that is a legit skill change & not just small sample mirage, that evens the gap some with the glove. Ultimately I think it will be Omar vs RHP with the Sherriff for Burnes starts & vs LHP.

For whatever it is or isn't worth, NBA.com had the Bucks bench 8th in scoring, 1st in rebounding, 10th in assists & 3rd in +/- last season.

There wasn't a thread yet for the 2021 offense & obviously we don't quite know who exactly all the players are going to be yet at this point, but one thing we do know is what has already happened. Let's start with 2020 which was (tugs collar) well (checks notes) pretty (drumroll, please) offensive (rimshot!!). Brewers batters managed an 89 wRC+ (25th) & 4.2 WAR (24th), that's the bad news. The good news is that 2020 was only 60 games, our position players only got 2,188 plate appearances combined, ultimately pretty small samples in the grand scheme of baseball. Now, Stearns & company have been here since 2016, which means that before 2020 they assembled offenses that played a total of 649 games & got 23,499 plate appearances, a much larger (like over 10x) sample. Of course most of those players are gone & those games happened farther in the past so they are of less relevance, but they still offer some degree of insight. Here's how each position fared for the last 60 games versus the first 649... C 2020: 76 wRC+ (20th) 1.5 WAR (8th) C 2016-19: 98 wRC+ (10th) 14.9 WAR (4th) 1B 2020: 101 wRC+ (18th) 0.3 WAR (22nd) 1B 2016-19: 119 wRC+ (8th) 9.1 WAR (10th) 2B 2020: 81 wRC+ (18th) 0.0 WAR (24th) 2B 2016-19: 99 wRC+ (12th) 7.4 WAR (20th) 3B 2020: 56 wRC+ (30th) -0.3 WAR (30th) 3B 2016-19: 98 wRC+ (24th) 8.9 WAR (21st) SS 2020: 92 wRC+ (21st) 0.6 WAR (25th) SS 2016-19: 77 wRC+ (27th) 1.9 WAR (29th) LF 2020: 100 wRC+ (16th) 0.5 WAR (18th) LF 2016-19: 116 wRC+ (2nd) 12.9 WAR (6th) CF 2020: 89 wRC+ (20th) 0.8 WAR (19th) CF 2016-19: 96 wRC+ (15th) 12.7 WAR (10th) RF 2020: 117 wRC+ (11th) 0.9 WAR (18th) RF 2016-19: 119 wRC+ (4th) 14.7 WAR (4th) DH 2020: 82 wRC+ (21st) -0.4 WAR (21st) Even before any moves are made, it seems like it should be pretty easy in 2021 to top our 2020 wRC+ marks at C, 2B, 3B, LF & DH (if it is back). 1B at 101 & CF at 89 seem like pushes, while the only positions I would currently peg for a lower wRC+ in 2021 than in 2020 are SS & RF.

Fried has 281 career IP with a 130 ERA+ & just finished 5th in CY voting, Soroka has 214 career IP with a 160 ERA+ & finished 6th in 2019 CY voting, Ian Anderson only has 32 regular season IP at this point but they were pretty dominant with a 246 ERA+ then followed up with only two runs allowed over 18.2 postseason innings. How many teams have three young starters that stack up with that? The Dodgers & Indians maybe?

Between Hamels, Ozuna, Melancon, Shane Greene, Tyler Flowers & Nick Markakis they have about 64 million coming off the books.

Three more teams - the Dodgers, Braves & Royals - have been published since we last checked in. Here's a quick accounting of how their batters did in 2020 & what kind of an impact that had on their projections... Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Muncy (248) 132 | 97 | 127 (-5) Mookie (246) 137 | 149 | 138 (+1) Bellinger (243) 157 | 113 | 141 (-16) Seager (232) 115 | 152 | 130 (+15) Taylor (214) 104 | 128 | 107 (+3) Pollock (210) 102 | 134 | 110 (+8) Turner (175) 124 | 135 | 119 (-5) Hernandez (148) 96 | 83 | 93 (-3) Pederson (138) 124 | 84| 116 (-8) Smith (137) 108 | 164 | 117 (+9) Barnes (104) 85 | 85 | 82 (-3) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Ozuna (267) 119 | 175 | 130 (+11) Dansby (264) 91 | 110 | 94 (+3) Freeman (262) 141 | 186 | 141 (0) Duvall (209) 96 | 113 | 96 (0) Riley (206) 107 | 86 | 95 (-12) Acuna (202) 133 | 155 | 147 (+14) d'Arnaud (184) 89 | 138 | 98 (+9) Markakis (141) 94 | 84 | 80 (-14) Inciarte (131) 92 | 36 | 79 (-13) Carmago (127) 94 | 58 | 86 (-8) Albies (124) 121 | 99 | 117 (-4) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Merrifield (265) 106 | 106 | 107 (+1) Franco (243) 92 | 109 | 95 (+3) Mondesi (233) 89 | 91 | 93 (+4) Lopez (192) 82 | 53 | 75 (-7) Dozier (186) 110 | 101 | 108 (-2) Soler (174) 130 | 107 | 125 (-5) Perez (156) 96 | 161 | 108 (+12) O'Hearn (132) 96 | 66 | 91 (-5) That brings us up to 83 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows... 0-4%: 32 5-9%: 24 10-14%: 18 15-19%: 7 20+%: 2

It's still a pretty small sample with only five teams published, but of the 53 batters projected so far for 2021 who had at least 100 PAs in 2020, their OPS+ projections have changed by the following margins over the last year... 0-4%: 20 5-9%: 14 10-14%: 12 15-19%: 5 20+%: 2

In addition to the Padres - the Blue Jays & White Sox have also been released over the last couple two tree days. Let's see how much effect a hundred or two pandemic plate appearances (& getting a year older obviously) had on their respective batters' ZiPS projections... Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Tatis (257) 128 | 155 | 142 (+14) Machado (254) 120 | 158 | 124 (+4) Grisham (252) 107 | 122 | 111 (+4) Myers (218) 102 | 159 | 115 (+13) Profar (202) 101 | 113 | 103 (+2) Cronenworth (192) 84 | 128 | 97 (+13) Nola (184) 87 | 129 | 93 (+6) Hosmer (156) 99 | 131 | 99 (0) Moreland (152) 94 | 139 | 99 (+5) Pham (125) 122 | 74 | 109 (-13) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Biggio (265) 95 | 122 | 106 (+11) Guerrero (243) 125 | 115 | 124 (-1) Grichuk (231) 104 | 114 | 109 (+5) Gurriel (224) 98 | 138 | 113 (+15) Teoscar (207) 104 | 146 | 121 (+17) Villar (207) 99 | 64 | 87 (-12) Shaw (180) 106 | 95 | 102 (-4) Jansen (147) 86 | 85 | 101 (+15) Panik (141) 90 | 79 | 87 (-3) Bichette (128) 115 | 127 | 125 (+10) Tellez (127) 100 | 139 | 119 (+19) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Abreu (262) 113 | 166 | 121 (+8) Moncada (231) 121 | 94 | 114 (-7) Robert (227) 104 | 101 | 113 (+9) Eloy (226) 128 | 140 | 132 (+4) Anderson (221) 99 | 141 | 113 (+14) Grandal (194) 118 | 113 | 111 (-7) Encarnacion (181) 121 | 70 | 96 (-25) Mazara (149) 99 | 64 | 96 (-3) Mendick (114) 80 | 81 | 88 (+8) McCann (111) 85 | 144 | 92 (+7) Madrigal (109) 90 | 108 | 93 (+3)

Do people honestly believe the Brewers won't sign a single free agent? I agree DJL is prolly not a realistic expectation, but I feel like signing zero free agents is maybe equally unrealistic in the opposite direction? Time will tell, I guess.

Yup. Then Drew went out & threw 13 IP with only 1 ER in his first two starts with the Phils & there were some "how'd we let this guy go?!?!" type posts, but then over his last ten starts he only managed 49 innings with a 5.44 ERA while the Brewers surged to the postseason with help from guys like Pomeranz & Lyles that Stearns & company caught considerable flack for acquiring in the first place.

What 1st round picks do the Bucks still own from now until '27? I thought they'd traded their 1st next year, but another poster said they hadn't(I thought it was part of the George Hill trade). Then they should retain their '22 first and '23 first....as of now, right? Believe 2022 is going to Cleveland which leaves us with our 2021 & 2023 first rounders (no swap), plus the 2024 & 2026 firsts (with swap potential).

WOJ reporting the Bucks will also be acquiring Bogdan Bogdan from Sacto in a sign & trade.

Sure, it's possible. It's also possible Giannis told the Bucks he'd be much more willing to sign an extension if Bledsoe was off the team, so Horst & company facilitated that request.

Yes, Jrue is better than Bledsoe straight up. Especially in the postseason, .545 TS% & 12.2 TO% for Holiday vs .494 TS% & 14.8 TO% for Eric with the Bucks. This deal seems to indicate the front office is probably fairly confident Giannis will sign the supermax.

FanGraphs started publishing Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the 2021 season last week. There have only been two teams posted thus far (NYY & OAK), but I thought it might be interesting to see how much (or little) weight the results from the shortened 2020 season would have on the 2021 projections, specifically for batters with an eye towards how much positive regression Brewers 2020 underperformers might be in line for this coming season... Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Voit (234) 122 | 156 | 134 (+12) DJL (216) 108 | 177 | 119 (+11) Hicks (211) 108 | 121 | 112 (+4) Sanchez (178) 121 | 69 | 100 (-21) Urshela (174) 105 | 136 | 110 (+5) Gleyber (160) 136 | 102 | 136 (0) Frazier (160) 95 | 149 | 109 (+14) Gardner (158) 97 | 108 | 106 (+9) Judge (114) 140 | 142 | 139 (-1) Tauchman (111) 105 | 83 | 105 (0) Wade (105) 66 | 66 | 70 (+4) Giancarlo (94) 138 | 144 | 138 (0) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Olson (245) 128 | 105 | 129 (+1) Canha (243) 119 | 126 | 118 (-1) Semien (236) 124 | 91 | 111 (-13) LaStella (228) 95 | 127 | 103 (+8) Laureano (222) 113 | 100 | 116 (+3) Grossman (192) 95 | 130 | 100 (+5) Piscotty (171) 109 | 76 | 93 (-16) Chapman (152) 123 | 122 | 127 (+4) Murphy (140) 91 | 131 | 100 (+9) Kemp (114) 91 | 92 | 94 (+3) Khrush (99) 110 | 79 | 109 (-1)

Barnes & Noble has 50% off Criterion titles currently. Stopped in last week to pick up The Elephant Man & maybe one other, when I saw the B&N employee putting up the half off signs so I ended up grabbing a half dozen instead. My favorites so far of the ones I picked up are probably Wings of Desire (Angels making their way through mostly black & white wall still standing Berlin listening in on people's thoughts) & The Magician (Bergman riffing on the wealthy ruling class's open contempt for, well, anyone that isn't them).

Jackie Robinson playing for the Brooklyn Dodgers had some political implications. I wasn't alive then, but I'd imagine there were plenty of people who swore off baseball that very moment, yet it still remains. Cassius Clay refusing to go to Vietnam was certainly an act of political defiance. Again, I wasn't alive at the time but I'd guess there were more than a few people with choice words for Cassius as a result of said refusal. Maybe some even said they'd never watch boxing again. Curt Flood had the audacity to challenge the reserve clause. I wasn't alive for this either, but I'd suppose there was some percentage of baseball fans who thought he should just shut up & play ball. Politics in sports are nothing new & those who have resisted the inevitable tide of change seem to have generally ended up on the wrong side of history in the long run. In an ever evolving world, Billy Beane just might have been onto something, "Adapt or die."