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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I feel like the 3rd inning of the 15th game is maybe too early to make this determination.
  2. sveumrules
    I did!!
  3. sveumrules
    Or not.
  4. sveumrules
    I don't think Hader is going anywhere. There's been some disccussion about his limited usage this year so far but it mostly just comes down to the opportunity hasn't really been there. My best guess is Stearns & company would prefer to use him in more of a multi inning fireman role, since that is more valuable than a 9th inning only closer, but... (A) we don't have that other elite reliever like Jeffress or Knebel in the past to free Josh up for the fireman role & (B) since multi inning appearances typically result in more rest/unavailability maybe the team is using Hader in more of a 9th inning only role this year so he's available for as many games as possible in a shortened season.
  5. sveumrules
    League Average Batter 2014 | 255/318/393 | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | .301 BABIP | .138 ISO 2015 | 258/321/412 | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | .301 BABIP | .153 ISO 2016 | 259/326/425 | 8.3 BB% | 20.6 K% | .302 BABIP | .166 ISO 2017 | 259/329/433 | 8.7 BB% | 21.2 K% | .301 BABIP | .175 ISO 2018 | 252/323/417 | 8.6 BB% | 21.7 K% | .297 BABIP | .165 ISO 2019 | 256/327/443 | 8.7 BB% | 22.4 K% | .299 BABIP | .187 ISO 2020 | 230/311/396 | 9.3 BB% | 23.9 K% | .276 BABIP | .166 ISO That dropoff in batting average & BABIP so far is stark.
  6. sveumrules
    From Braun's graduation through 2015, Stearns & company were not in charge of things, so I'm not sure how that reflects on them at all. From Stearns & company's first draft in 2016 through now there have been two players in all of MLB to put up 5 WAR, Pete Alonso & Shane Bieber.
  7. sveumrules
    Last year Yelich hit 429/671 & the team wRC+ for non-pitchers was 102. We needed him to hit like an MVP last year to be a slightly above league average offense overall. That 394/570 projection already has a significant amount of regression cooked in. If he were hitting at his 2019 level our team wRC+ would be right about where it was last year. Remember last year when our season was doomed after the pitching staff opened the season with a 5+ ERA over the first couple two tree weeks? Turned out that wasn't predictive of anything & even with the shortened season this year I think our offensive struggles thus far are similarly non-predictive.
  8. sveumrules
    Putrid might be a bit of an overstatement. They've certainly been bad with an 87 wRC+ over their first 11 games, but I would save putrid for the likes of the Indians (69 wRC+) or Pirates (72 wRC+). Yelich's current OBP/SLG of 255/375 is "good" for a 77 wRC+. If he was closer to his preseason ZIPS projection of 394/570 that would be about 6 more times on base & 10 more total bases so far. If you add those to our current totals that would raise our team wRC+ to around 93. In 2019, our non-pitchers posted a 102 wRC+. If we use that as a baseline, Yelich's underperformance thus far accounts for approximately 40% of the team's underperformance. But Yelich hasn't even been our worst hitter, that designation goes to Smoak of the 186/231 OBP/SLG equating to a 16 wRC+. His ZIPS projection was for 349/441, so he's missed out on about 7 times on base & 8 total bases. Essentially, if Yelich & Smoak were hitting to projections the team wRC+ would be about 98, more or less average. The majority of the offense being bad to this point is on account of two players underperforming their projections, but that's the sort of thing that can happen in a sample as small & non-predictive as 11 games.
  9. sveumrules
    If the season ended today we would be in the playoffs!!! (I think?)
  10. sveumrules
    One might say he's not even Avisail Garcia out there...
  11. sveumrules
    The pitching has been excellent, and I don’t even think the total runs against do justice for how good some of the stuff has appeared so far. Excited for Lauer v. Bauer tomorrow night. Hearing the Brewers might sign Joe Mauer to a one day contract for the occasion. Maybe bring back Rich Dauer as interim bench coach.
  12. sveumrules
    Villar, Aguilar, and Harrison with hits, Brinson with a walk, Yamamoto started, Kintzler with a save. Half their dang roster are former Brewers or farmhands. That's awesome. Maybe they'll change the name of that outfield nightclub at Marlins Park from The Clevelander to The Milwaukeean. Never understood why anyone in Miami would want to go to a club named after Cleveland in the first place.
  13. sveumrules
    Neither has much experience out there, but coming into the season Avisail had more career innings (301) in CF than Gamel (181). Of course there is more to playing OF than pure speed, but Statcast also has Avisail (28.8 ft/sec) faster than Ben (28.2 ft/sec). Obviously Win Probability Added has next to zero predictive value, but Sogard so far is tops among all our batters at +0.40 & while he's probably not going to keep walking 20% of the time, his BB rate from 2017-19 was 27% above league average (with a K rate 35% below league average), so he should continue to turn in quality plate appearances as long as the season lasts.
  14. sveumrules
    That should get the offense going. (this is an internet joke)
  15. sveumrules
    Stearns & company arrived in 2016. The Brewers won the 9th most games in MLB from 2016-19. Consistently picking at the back end of the draft is a contributing factor to the farm system rankings. Based on the limited impact players drafted since 2016 have had in MLB to this point & considering the Brewers already have one of the most impactful thus far in Hiura, I guess it just seems unrealistic to me to think we would have one of these guys lined up at multiple positions. The only clear whiff at this point is Ray/Erceg in 2016, but there's still Burnes plus Feliciano/Henry & some other dark horses in there to maybe salvage some value still. Since then the higher picks have mostly had good results or its still just way too early to tell.
  16. sveumrules
    Right now team wRC+ ranges from 135 at the top to 54 at the bottom, the Brewers are 26th at 85. In 2019, through around 60 games, team wRC+ ranged from 122 at the top to 73 on the bottom. Even in a shortened season, there is still plenty of regression coming for most everybody. Given the predictive power of an 8 game sample is next to zilch, I would wager our team wRC+ ends up closer to the 102 our non-pitchers posted in 2019 than the 85 it currently sits at. Yelich hitting like Yelich would definitely give it a nice nudge in the right direction.
  17. sveumrules
    14 of 41 first round picks in 2016 have made it to MLB so far, the best has been Dakota Hudson (2.2 WAR). 7 of 36 first round picks in 2017 have made it to MLB so far, the best has been Hiura (2.3 WAR). 4 of 43 first round picks in 2018 have made it to MLB so far, none has more than 0.2 WAR. Might need to give it some more time.
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+ Narvaez 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+ Pina 2020 ZIPS: 78 OPS+ Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+ Smoak 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+ Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+ Keston 2020 ZIPS: 115 OPS+ Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+ Urias 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ Arcia 2020 ZIPS: 75 OPS+ Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+ Gyorko 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ Holt 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ Sogard 2020 ZIPS: 85 OPS+ Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+ Avisail 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+ Braun 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+ Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+ Cain 2020 ZIPS: 92 OPS+ Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+ Yelich 2020 ZIPS: 149 OPS+ By the projections C, 2B & LF are slightly worse. 1B & Yelich are essentially a push. 3B, SS & CF are improvements. Over 162 games, the 2020 offense projected about the same as in 2019. Over less than 60 games there is so much noise in the sample that anything can really happen. Drawing conclusions after 7 games will probably prove to be premature, though I'd imagine our team wRC+ if we play 50ish games will end up closer to the 102 it was last year than the 84 it is so far this year.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, this whole season (if we even make it to the end) is like one big small sample theatre. Normally around 60 games or so is when a lot of stuff is just starting to stabilize a little bit. Now Ben Gamel's our best hitter because of 20 plate appearances. Crazy stuff is already happening. Tyler Alexander has a long, established history of not really striking guys out. Yet, the other day, with no new pitch or no extra 5 MPH on his fastball, he struck out nine guys in a row...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anyone-can-strike-out-nine-batters-in-a-row/ Over 162 games a lot evens out, but plenty of weird baseball stuff still happens. Given the hopeful length of this season, it's going to be magnitudes weirder. In 2019, Eric Sogard had a 54 game stretch where he hit 310/378/512. In 2019, Justin Smoak had a 54 game stretch where he hit 242/385/473. In 2018, Jedd Gyorko had a 55 game stretch where he hit 310/415/494. In 2018, Brock Holt had a 48 game stretch where he hit 320/385/433. In 2017, Logan Morrison had a 55 game stretch where hit 269/391/591. In 2017, Ryon Healy had a 53 game stretch where he hit 299/326/578. Given all the uncertainty around an already shortened season, the only thing I really care about is that everyone stays healthy. If we get to be a couple weeks from the end of the season & MLB is still actually going maybe I'll let myself start to get invested emotionally in the season's potential outcome.
  20. sveumrules
    Coming into the season the only positions that projected below replacement offensively were 3B & SS. Losing Cain & Braun & Urias not playing yet have created more holes. It's not like today's lineup was the plan all along or something.
  21. sveumrules
    Garcia has 301 career innings in CF compared to 181 for Gamel, the benefit seems to be that Avisail is more experienced. Healy has a 103 wRC+ vs LHP compared to a 109 wRC+ vs LHP for Gamel, though neither has even 500 PA against LHP spread out over the course of their 4 year careers, so both samples have quite a bit of noise. Their true talent level vs LHP doesn't appear to be drastically different. The numbers don't really support Gamel in CF or at leadoff as being the obvious call.
  22. sveumrules
    What is Counsell thinking hitting the guy with the best batting eye on the team in the leadoff spot? Doesn't he remember 2018?!?!?
  23. sveumrules
    1.5% win expectancy entering the 9th inning...AINT NO THANG.
  24. sveumrules
    ZiPS projects Cain at 92 OPS+ (an improvement over last year), Smoak at 106 OPS+ & Braun at 107 OPS+ (both right in line with our 1B production in 2019).
  25. sveumrules
    Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+ Narvaez 2017-19: 115 wRC+ Manny 2017-19: 90 wRC+ Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+ Smoak 2017-19: 120 wRC+ Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+ Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+ Keston 2017-19: 139 wRC+ (348 MLB PAs) 155 wRC+ (AAA) 116 wRC+ (AA) Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+ Urias 2017-19: 79 wRC+ (302 MLB PAs) 131 wRC+ (AAA) 124 wRC+ (AA) Arcia 2017-19: 69 wRC+ Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+ Gyorko 2017-19: 105 wRC+ Sogard 2017-19: 99 wRC+ Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+ Avisail 2017-19: 117 wRC+ Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+ Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+ Cain 2017-19: 107 wRC+ Gamel 2017-19: 97 wRC+ Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+ Yelich 2017-19: 151 wRC+ Last year we had three holes (SS, 3B, CF) plus the pitcher spot. We should likely see improvement from all three of those spots, plus the DH. I think the numbers support our offense having fewer holes in 2020 than in 2019.
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