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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, that's the big question. Almost every inning a guy like Hader pitches is of the utmost importance, where even the ace-iest of aces inevitably ends up pitching a certain % of low leverage innings. Win Probability Added attempts to account for that leverage difference & is one stat that ranks elite relievers in the same company as "#1 starters". Hader is 10th in WPA since 2017 & there are 13 relievers in the top 30 over that same time. For just 2019 Hader was at 2.53 WPA compared to 1.35 for Woodruff.
  2. sveumrules
    Just for some more data points, here is how Hader stacks up by WAR over the last three years versus some of this year's FA starters... Hader | 5.9 fWAR | 7.2 rWAR Wheeler | 9.1 fWAR | 7.0 rWAR | 23.6 million AAV Ryu | 7.2 fWAR | 10.9 rWAR | 20 million AAV Keuchel | 6.3 fWAR | 9.7 rWAR | 18.5 million AAV Hamels | 6.5 fWAR | 9.6 rWAR | 18 million AAV Odorizzi | 7.0 fWAR | 7.0 rWAR | 17.8 million AAV MadBum | 6.2 fWAR | 8.8 rWAR | 17 million Avg 2020 FA "#2 SP" | 7.0 fWAR | 8.2 rWAR | 19 million AAV
  3. sveumrules
    Since 2017 Hader has posted 5.9 fWAR (66th), 7.2 rWAR (49th) & 7.26 Win Probability Added (10th), with (ranks) among all pitchers, not just relievers. That seems to line up with the idea that an elite reliever is similar in value to a #2 starter. The highest reliever salaries have been around 18-19 million, which also generally lines up with the going rate for a #2 starter, Ryu just got 4/80 for instance. In terms of comparing value between Hader & Woodruff (or any starter/reliever, really) it basically comes down to innings times FIP-/ERA- for me. Just using last year as an example you have... Woody 121 IP | 82 ERA- | 67 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR | 3.3 fWAR Hader 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR As long as Woodruff keeps his ERA-/FIP- in the 75 range & stays healthy enough to make 25+ starts it would be tough for any reliever to match that value.
  4. sveumrules
    In 2019 we got an MLB worst 73 wRC+ & 0.1 WAR (only 3rd worst!!) out of 3B, we also got an MLB worst 56 wRC+ & -0.9 WAR out of SS...and still won 89 games. I think Gyorko/Sogard can clear that level of production & won't hinder the team from winning a comparable number of games in 2020.
  5. sveumrules
    There were a couple recent FanGraphs articles examining the cost of a win on the free agent market... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ ...& if that amount should be applied linearly... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-still-linear/ This article is a little older, from 2017, but it breaks down $/WAR by position, which also appears to vary quite a bit... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-evolution-of-positional-differences-in-free-agent-costs/
  6. sveumrules
    or before that...(be still my heart)...Khris Davis...(swoons)...
  7. sveumrules
    Through his age 24 season, Alcides Escobar had 1,288 PAs with a 72 OPS+. He then put up a career high 96 OPS+ in his age 25 season. Through his age 24 season, Orlando Arcia has 1,676 PAs with a 70 OPS+.
  8. sveumrules
    With Phelps we have signed the 3rd most players in the NL for the 6th highest total dollar amount... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/free-agent-spending-by-team-national-league.html But did we also cut the most money from last year's roster? Impossible to say until the final numbers come out, but a quick perusal of Cots indicates the Cubs project for about a 184 million opening day payroll for 2020 compared to 237 million to end 2019, so the best answer to your question at this point is probably not.
  9. sveumrules
    With Phelps we have signed the 3rd most players in the NL for the 6th highest total dollar amount... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/free-agent-spending-by-team-national-league.html
  10. sveumrules
    I think every team in the NL besides the Dodgers will open the season with their odds at less than a coin flip of actually making the playoffs. Any of ATL, WAS, NYM or PHI could win the East & any of STL, MIL, CHI or CIN could win the Central plus ARI will probably be in the wild card mix, especially since the NL West has the weakest overall division & gets the ALC for interleague. That's nine teams for four spots. At this way too early juncture it seems like the NLE is a little stronger at the top than the NLC so I'd say the most likely outcome is ARI plus the NLE runner up as the wild cards, but one of my favorite things about baseball is the most likely outcome isn't always the outcome that comes out.
  11. sveumrules
    The no divisional trade thing is a myth made up by fans. Teams seek good returns in trades, regardless of the trade partner Sure, teams trade in division all the time, but generally not guys like Senzel who got picked second overall, was a consensus top 10 prospect two years in a row & still has 6 years of team control remaining. The last guy close to his prospect pedigree I can think of getting traded in division was Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto, but even then Sanchez was consistently ranked in n the 13-25 range, so a notch lower than Senzel, he carried a much riskier profile as a 19 year old pitching prospect in A+ ball versus a 24 year old MLB ready position prospect & the Marlins aren't trying to contend in the immediate term. What prospects of Senzel's caliber are you thinking of that were traded in division between two teams that were both hoping to contend in the immediate term?
  12. sveumrules
    Better for his throwing, but I believe the left hand generates power for a righty batter, being at the bottom of the grip.
  13. sveumrules
    Sure, it's against the Wizards, but Milwaukee currently up 88-63 at halftime with no Giannis. Two 8's.
  14. sveumrules
    I think another thing to consider is that the Brewers have pursued value at every opportunity under Stearns. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this extends to their valuation of amateur players/prospects. If the Brewers are intentionally targeting players they believe are underrated by the rest of baseball, that will naturally show up in lower prospect ratings.
  15. sveumrules
    I get what you are saying but the reality is most teams don't have very good options past like starter #3. Most teams do not have deep proven rotations. Miller could have found quite a few other teams that would give him a path to playing time if somehow he is good. If I was a talented pitcher looking to get back on track, Milwaukee would definitely be high on my list. Lyles & Pomeranz were probably looking at 1 year prove it deals before the trade deadline last year, both signed multi year deals for a combined 50 million after turning things around with the Brewers. Another pitcher no one was excited about us acquiring, Wade Miley, has gone onto sign deals worth 19.5 million since he left the Brewers.
  16. sveumrules
    According to FanGraphs the Reds got 0.5 WAR out of 2B/LF combined in 2019. Nick & Moose combined for 5.6 fWAR/5.9 bWAR in 2019. So the Reds likely have added about 5-6 wins for 32 million bucks in 2020.
  17. sveumrules
    Sounds similar to the reasoning likely employed by Miley & his agent in 2018. That seemed to work out alright for all involved parties.
  18. sveumrules
    I understand you're just quoting projections, but if someone let me bet on whether Hiura would outproduce Moose at the plate this year...I'd go get a home equity loan today. Yeah, that 118 kind of feels like Moose's ceiling considering he's got a career high of 119 & has been at 114, 107 & 117 over the last three years while 115 for Hiura feels closer to his floor considering his scouting reports, minor league track record & a 138 OPS+ in half a season with elite exit velocities. At the same time the 30.7 K% & .402 BABIP make him a prime regression candidate. A lot more upside with Keston's projection, but a lot more certainty in Moose's.
  19. sveumrules
    The depth charts at FanGraphs have the following projected 2020 WARs for NL Central contenders... CHI 40.6 MIL 36.7 STL 35.7 CIN 33.1 ZIPS has the following projected 2020 WARs for NL Central contenders (Cubs not released yet)... MKE 38.1 WAR STL 35.9 WAR CIN 35.6 WAR VegasInsider has the 2020 over under win totals for NLC contenders at... STL 88.5 CHI 84.5 CIN 83.5 MKE 82.5 There is no clear favorite in the NL Central at the moment. The only NL division that has a clear favorite is the NL West. Any of four teams could conceivably win either of the East or Central. I'd guess when 538 & similar sites start releasing their preseason playoff odds that PIT will be <1% & each of the other four NLC teams will be somewhere between 20%-30% to win the division.
  20. sveumrules
    Doubt they trade him in division & not really sure what we would give up to acquire him, especially considering the Reds will likely try to deal him for someone who can contribute in 2020.
  21. sveumrules
    Last year the Brewers had a 99 ERA- & won 89 games. The Reds had a 93 ERA- & won 75 games. The Reds ERA was 6% better, yet the Brewers won 19% more games. Pitching is almost half the game, but it ain't the whole thing. Also, pitching tends to be more volatile because pitchers get hurt more, making it naturally less trustworthy as a whole. Last year our #2 starter to open the season was Freddy Peralta. He ended up with 35 IP over 8 starts with a 7.07 ERA in the rotation. The Brewers still won 89 games. Here are the two teams position groups with their 2020 ZIPS projected OPS+... MKE C: Narvaez (106) Pina (78) CIN C: Banhart (89) Casali (77) MKE 1B: Votto (114) CIN 1B: Smoak (106) MKE 2B: Hiura (115) CIN 2B: Moose (118) MKE SS: Urias (95) Arcia (75) CIN SS: Galvis (80) MKE 3B: Gyorko (98) Sogard (85) CIN 3B: Suarez (122) MKE CF: Cain (92) CIN CF: Senzel (97) Akiyama (98) MKE COF: Yelich (149) Garcia (107) Braun (106) CIN COF: Castellanos (125) Winker (112) Aquino (96) Looks like we have better projections at C & COF, while the Reds have a better projection at 3B. Most of the other spots are pretty even.
  22. sveumrules
    Last year the Cardinals took the division with 91 wins. What have they done to improve? Last year we won 89 games for a Wild Card. I'd imagine most posters would take the under on that win total for 2020. Last year the Cubs won 84 games. I can't recall any notable improvements they've made this winter. The Reds have been active, but they won 75 games last year. That's a lot of ground to make up. There have been 80 playoff teams in the two wild card era, 11 of those teams (about 14%) won 75 or fewer games in the season prior to their postseason berth. From the look of things now I don't think there is a 90 win team in the division & if someome does get there, a lot will inevitably have gone right.
  23. sveumrules
    On paper the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs & Reds all look to be relatively evenly matched to this point. I won't be surprised by whichsoever of the 24 different first through fourth place combinations comes to pass at the end of the season. The only thing that would surprise me is PIT finishing anywhere but fifth. ZIPS haven't been released for the Cubs yet, but if I added right the other three NLC contenders currently look like... MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR Castellanos has been between 2.5 to 3.0 WAR each of the last two seasons, but if he lands with CIN he isn't replacing a zero WAR guy, he's replacing some combination of Aquino/Winker/Ervin who are projected for 3.7 WAR between LF/RF, so probably like a 1.5 to 2.0 win upgrade.
  24. sveumrules
    Cardinals ZIPS released today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/ NL Central ZIPS thus far.... CIN Starting Pitchers 14.2 WAR STL Starting Pitchers 11.6 WAR MKE Starting Pitchers 10.4 WAR MKE Relief Pitchers 6.3 WAR STL Relief Pitchers 3.8 WAR CIN Relief Pitchers 3.6 WAR MKE Position Players 21.4 WAR STL Position Players 20.5 WAR CIN Postiion Players 17.8 WAR MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR
  25. sveumrules
    I kinda feel like Eli is the Florida Marlins of QBs. Couple of rings surrounded by a whole lot of blah. QB record is probably just as dubious as pitcher wins, but he was 117-117 as a regular season starter. I don't have a problem with him making HOF, but that's probably because I don't really care about the football HOF.
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