sveumrules

He won't get that chance. Anytime you can lock a guy into your rotation that throws 88 mph and has all below average MLB offerings at best...you have to do. So instead of an elite arm talent, say hello to Brett Anderson. Anderson's average FB velocity in 2019 was 91.4 MPH on the 4-seam & 90.9 on the sinker. His 4 seam fastball, cutter & change up all had positive pitch values in 2019. He has almost 1,000 career innings with a 98 ERA-/95 FIP-. Almost no team has the same 5 guys take every start all year, just because Brett Anderson is in the rotation to start the year does not mean that Corbin Burnes will never get an opportunity to start for the 2020 Brewers.

My guess on what Stearns liked when he signed him is that 2019 was the first time he started throwing a cutter. He threw is 13.8% of the time, and it graded out as a positive pitch for him. He threw less sliders, which graded out as a negative pitch the last couple of seasons, and he had a decent season. I think Stearns sees him as another Miley-type project. Increase his cutter usage and see if he can break out. Last year Anderson posted 2.0 FIP based WAR (72nd in MLB, exactly the same as Miley interestingly) & 3.6 runs allowed based WAR (31st in MLB, tied with Darvish). Given his health history I wouldn't expect him to repeat those totals in 2020, but for five million on a one year deal you're only paying for about a win in expected production, a bar Brett has cleared in 7 of his 11 MLB seasons.

ZIPS: Houser 4.09 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA Marcel: Houser 4.04 ERA | Lauer 4.41 ERA Steamer: Houser 4.23 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA The Bat: Houser 4.30 ERA | Lauer 4.68 ERA ATC: Houser 4.08 ERA | Lauer 4.63 ERA Every publicly available projection system I could find has Houser a notch above Lauer, so I'm not surprised it appears as though the Brewers do. Not that it really matters since projections are wrong all the time & both will likely be counted on to throw important innings for a hopefully contending club all summer long.

I’m dead set on Houser not being a starter so obviously I agree here. Also a very weird trade made if he’s not given a chance to be in your rotation. It sounds like Lauer is being given a chance, just not a guarantee. I would expect him to end up in the rotation over Peralta/Burnes at this point because we gave up value to acquire him, he was better last year & his stuff theoretically doesn't play up in the bullpen as much as Corbin/Freddy. There's also over a month until opening day, the rotation will likely be fungible throughout the season & I'd imagine everyone will end up getting a chance at some point. Houser entered last year a clear step behind Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta in the pecking order & ended up out producing two out of those three guys. I don't think pecking order in February will ultimately mean much. Outside of Brett Anderson, where a healthy serviceable season is really his peak at this point, & Linblom who is kind of a wild card coming back over from Korea, the other five guys still have plenty of upside & growth potential. I'm excited to see how it all plays out.

In 2017 Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson & Jimmy Nelson constituted our opening day rotation. Guerra got hurt opening day & was replaced by Tommy Milone & eventually Matt Garza. Ultimately an outlier season from Anderson, Nelson's breakout (which finally came after 436 mediocre MLB IP) & Davies doing Davies things carried the rotation to a top 10 finish in both runs allowed & FIP based WAR while the team exceeded expectations by winning 86 games & just missing the postseason. In 2018 our opening day rotation was Anderson, Jhouyls, Suter & Davies with Guerra & Miley waiting in the wings injured. The Chacin & Miley signings hadn't inspired much confidence, most thought Chase would regress & Guerra should already be in the bullpen. Ultimately it was an underwhelming group coming in 19th by FIP based WAR & 15th by runs allowed based WAR. Yet, the team exceeded expectations winning the division & made it within a game of the World Series. In 2019 we finally had the long awaited Brewer fan dream. Not one, not two, but three count em three starting pitching prospects, of varying degrees of bona fide-ness, all in the opening day rotation. Many thought it was a risky strategy for a team hoping to contend & it was. Two of the three flopped (plus Chacin) & the rotation, now under the tutelage of Chris Hook, came in about the same as the year before 20th fWAR/15th rWAR. On a team level the projections were once again beat, even if fan expectations were not necessarily exceeded, as the Brewers made the postseason & nearly knocked out the eventual WS champs. So three years, three uninspiring opening day rotations with varying question marks that have ultimately turned in mediocre results (13th rWAR/17th fWAR, 2017-19) yet on a team level we have won the 8th most games in MLB over that span, same as the Cubs & more than the Rays, A's, Cardinals, Braves, etc. What I guess I'm saying is the 2020 rotation has plenty of question marks. I would guess they will not finish the season as a top 10 group. I also do not believe this will deter the Brewers from delivering another summer of entertaining, competitive baseball.

Hard to take anything these guys say seriously. Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+ Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+ The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete. Right? Both last year & over the last three years, Omar & Yasmani have been essentially the same hitter. Maybe Justice mentions it in the article (no click from me), but the real difference is in their receiving/framing numbers. Something else to consider is plenty of posters doubted the validity of those framing numbers, both overall in general & specifically Grandal's dazzling marks in that category, so it might not even matter that much.

2019: 611 innings in LF, 27 innings in RF at AA. 2018: 228 innings in LF, 197 innings in RF, 64 innings at C in A+. 2017: 385 innings at C in A+. 2016: 227 innings at C, 9 innings at 3B in RK. You are right he did start one game at 3B, in rookie ball four years ago. If he ever sees 3B at the MLB level many things likely will have gone terribly wrong. If the Brewers believed he was potentially viable in RF at the MLB level they probably would have given him more than 27 innings there in AA last year. Looks to me like after 2018 they decided he was essentially LF only. I do agree that he may be able to handle 1B, but at a listed 5'10" & with no professional experience there I wouldn't expect much.

2019: 611 innings in LF, 27 innings in RF at AA. 2018: 228 innings in LF, 197 innings in RF, 64 innings at C in A+. 2017: 385 innings at C in A+. 2016: 227 innings at C, 9 innings at 3B in RK. You are right he did start one game at 3B, in rookie ball four years ago. If he ever sees 3B at the MLB level many things likely will have gone terribly wrong. If the Brewers believed he was potentially viable in RF at the MLB level they probably would have given him more than 27 innings there in AA last year. Looks to me like after 2018 they decided he was essentially LF only. I do agree that he may be able to handle 1B, but at a listed 5'10" & with no professional experience there I wouldn't expect much.

Hader seems pretty cool about the whole thing to me...

Hader seems pretty cool about the whole thing to me...

Hummel's results definitely deserve a closer look. I'd imagine the reason he doesn't get much consideration from prospectors is because he is essentially LF only at the MLB level & if that is your defensive profile you need to be mashing, with a good scouting profile & young for your league to really get noticed. Cooper has mashed, but has never had overwhelming tools & he's been right around league average age at every stop so he's going to be one of those guys like Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper that has to keep proving it every step of the way.

Hummel's results definitely deserve a closer look. I'd imagine the reason he doesn't get much consideration from prospectors is because he is essentially LF only at the MLB level & if that is your defensive profile you need to be mashing, with a good scouting profile & young for your league to really get noticed. Cooper has mashed, but has never had overwhelming tools & he's been right around league average age at every stop so he's going to be one of those guys like Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper that has to keep proving it every step of the way.

Looks like the Brewers actually spent more this offseason on their 2020 team than any other team in the Central including the all in Reds... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-team-payrolls-as-spring-training-begins/

Looks like the Brewers actually spent more this offseason on their 2020 team than any other team in the Central including the all in Reds... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-team-payrolls-as-spring-training-begins/

The Brewers raised payroll by 30 million dollars to a level that is not sustainable year over year specifically because two players were available on sweetheart one year deals. You can characterize them not spending that money again because no similar values were available as "slashing payroll", I'd characterize it as returning to a sustainable level. From 2011 to 2015 the Brewers payroll increased from 83 to 104 million while their wins decreased from 96 to 68. (If they spent more why didn't they win more?!?!? Weird). They then lowered payroll to 60 million when they were non competitive for two years before raising it back to previous levels once they were competitive again. Nothing disingenuous there. I have less than a hundred dollars in the bank. By typing that on the internet I am not crying poor, merely stating my financial reality. I believe Mark A is doing the same thing, stating the financial reality of the Brewers. Can anyone please link where he is "crying" about it?

The Brewers raised payroll by 30 million dollars to a level that is not sustainable year over year specifically because two players were available on sweetheart one year deals. You can characterize them not spending that money again because no similar values were available as "slashing payroll", I'd characterize it as returning to a sustainable level. From 2011 to 2015 the Brewers payroll increased from 83 to 104 million while their wins decreased from 96 to 68. (If they spent more why didn't they win more?!?!? Weird). They then lowered payroll to 60 million when they were non competitive for two years before raising it back to previous levels once they were competitive again. Nothing disingenuous there. I have less than a hundred dollars in the bank. By typing that on the internet I am not crying poor, merely stating my financial reality. I believe Mark A is doing the same thing, stating the financial reality of the Brewers. Can anyone please link where he is "crying" about it?

You say "cry poor", I say "behave in a manner which maintains both current competitiveness & future flexibility". One of those tomato tomato situations, I guess.

You say "cry poor", I say "behave in a manner which maintains both current competitiveness & future flexibility". One of those tomato tomato situations, I guess.

Guessing they maybe missed him at first because he's still under on the IP limit, but appears to be over the days on active roster limit.

Guessing they maybe missed him at first because he's still under on the IP limit, but appears to be over the days on active roster limit.

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA. I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start. Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs. I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year.

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA. I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start. Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs. I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year.

Agreed. Mark A Brewers 2005-19 (Fifteen Years) 1233-1198 (8 Winning Seasons, 4 Playoff Appearances) Bud S Brewers 1990-2004 (Fifteen Years before Mark A) 1074-1288 (2 Winning Seasons, 0 Playoff Appearances) Kind of hard to argue the last fifteen years have been anything but a marked improvement over the fifteen which came before.

Agreed. Mark A Brewers 2005-19 (Fifteen Years) 1233-1198 (8 Winning Seasons, 4 Playoff Appearances) Bud S Brewers 1990-2004 (Fifteen Years before Mark A) 1074-1288 (2 Winning Seasons, 0 Playoff Appearances) Kind of hard to argue the last fifteen years have been anything but a marked improvement over the fifteen which came before.

Not worried about Giannis in the least. Bucks can offer the most money & he seems to like it here. He's more than earned the right to control his own destiny, so I'll be fine with whatever decision he ultimately makes.