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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The only way its a disaster is if Gyorko collides with Yelich. Otherwise it is two million dollars for one year. If he sucks, he's gone with no future hindrance.
  2. sveumrules
    No one, Brewer fan or not, had us contending for the postseason in 2017. We missed by one game. No one, Brewer fan or not, had us winning the most games in the NL & coming up one game short of the WS in 2018. We did. Last year, many national pundits still weren't buying it & had the Cardinals/Cubs ahead of us. We managed to finish ahead of the Cubs & almost knocked the eventual WS Champs out of the postseason without our best player. As it stands today, this team looks like a 2020 postseason contender. Are they a guarantee to make it? No, of course not. Nobody in the NL outside of the Dodgers probably is.
  3. sveumrules
    Gyorko 2016-18 | 110 OPS+ | 8.7 bWAR MOOSE 2017-19 | 113 OPS+ | 7.6 bWAR Before Gyorko got hurt last year he had been pretty comparable to what MOOSE has done the last three seasons.
  4. sveumrules
    Those %'s feel close though I might bump GB close to 50 and Sea close to 40. I feel like if its blowout, there's a better chance GB puts up a clunker than Sea. Interestingly, ESPNs thingy puts Green Bay at 66%. Slightly greater chance to beat Seattle than SF has of beating Minn. 538 has us at 74% to win, too, so the models definitely have more confidence than my gut does. For me, I guess I still don't have much faith in the offense, who have looked pretty mediocre the last two months outside of one game against the Giants 30th ranked defense.
  5. sveumrules
    Interesting that with their win in Philly the Seahawks are now 8-1 on the road this season. I think I would put my likelihood of outcomes somewhere around... GB wins close (45%) SEA wins close (40%) SEA wins big (10%) GB wins big (5%) At the same time I'd imagine most gamblers are taking SEA & the points, so for the Packers sake I'll hope Vegas & the refs are in cahoots this week.
  6. sveumrules
    It could be, or it couldn't be. If Arenado hits closer to his career numbers outside of Coors, then the Cardinals gave up serious value for a glove first 3B making 200+ million. If Arenado has no problem leaving Coors (guys like Larry Walker & Matt Holliday hit fine post Colorado), then he likely opts out & STL gave up serious value for two years of an All Star 3B at market rates.
  7. sveumrules
    Yelich could also be linked back to Medeiros, albeit tenuously. I could be mis-remembering, but I'm pretty sure that Jordan Yamamoto put himself on the Brewers radar when he pitched a gem against Kodi in the Hawaii State Championship Game.
  8. sveumrules
    TV deals look relatively similar, 20 million for Colorado vs 24 million for Milwaukee based on the 2016 FG article. Colorado has better attendance figures than Milwaukee over the last few seasons though... 2019: 2,993,244 vs 2,923,333 2018: 3,015,888 vs 2,850,875 2017: 2,953,650 vs 2,627,705 2016: 2,602,524 vs 2,314,614 Of course, there are many other rows in both the revenue & expense columns outside of tv money, attendance & payroll. Another thing to consider is that Colorado is often viewed as one of the more inept, rudderless organizations whereas Milwaukee is generally regarded among the more forward thinking teams, for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  9. sveumrules
    I would guess Narvaez starts around 90 games. Figure in all the games Pina likely finishes up as a devensive replacement & I wouldn't be surprised if their actual innings behind the dish come out close to even. Smoak, who is perfectly cromulent afield, projects to play much more at first than does Braun. Yeah, Hiura sucks at defense. So about 50% of catcher innings, 20-25% of 1B innings & 85% of 2B innings look to be big defensive train wrecks. Last year the Brewers finished 12th in MLB with +36 DRS & I'd imagine they will finish on the positive side of the ledger again in 2020.
  10. sveumrules
    Pretty sure Sam Miller is still writing for the ESPN website & he is great. The book he wrote with Ben Lindbergh (who I believe is at The Ringer), "The Only Rule Is It Has To Work", about the two of them taking over an Independent League team for a summer & applying analytic concepts is the best baseball book I've read of late.
  11. sveumrules
    Yet another great example of ESPN's uselessness. I was at a bar for late lunch/early dinner recently & they were playing music but had one of those ESPN "everybody yells at everybody else" shows on the TV & it was actually pretty hilarious with no sound.
  12. sveumrules
    There's a HUGE difference between being on pace for 17 HR while in leagues where he is two years older/more experienced than the average player & hitting 20-25 HR if he ever even makes it to MLB. 28 walks in 260 plate appearances for a 22 year old in rookie ball is nothing impressive. Among 150 players in domestic rookie leagues with at least 200 PAs, Cam's walk rate ranked 48th. 17 for 25 (68% success rate) on SBs is also pretty pedestrian when you consider how much older/more advanced Devanney is compared to his competition. As he moves up & faces better batteries he will likely run less & less (especially if he's still getting thrown out over 30% of the time.)
  13. sveumrules
    Last year there were 11 players that hit 20 home runs as a SS. In 2018 there were 6. In 2016 & 2017 there were 9 each season. SS that project to hit 20 HR don't typically make it until the 15th round of the draft. In three seasons (626 PAs) using a metal bat against Colonial Athletic Association pitching he only hit 20 HR.
  14. sveumrules
    Devanney was 22 in rookie ball. When Stokes was 22 he was already in AA. That is a HUGE difference rendering any similarities mostly moot. Yes, Turang's big edge was that he was two levels higher at A+...while also being three years younger & with scouting reports which got him picked 21st as a teenager instead of 463rd as a college senior.
  15. sveumrules
    I kind of feel like a Cain Gold Glove is a given. Yelich (Hank Aaron) & Hader (Trevor Hoffman) also could get bobble-ized for their respective awards. Also wouldn't be surprised by a Simmons HOF. & can we please get a Teddy Higuera? Seems a lil strange that arguably the best pitcher in franchise history hasn't gotten the bobble treatment by now. If they do sort of a franchise greatest hits for the 50th I would guess Selig, Uecker, Aaron, Fingers, Molitor, Yount, Fielder, Braun & Yelich as the line up.
  16. sveumrules
    That assumes we could have resigned Thames for what he got. After paying the 1 million buyout instead of picking up his 7.5 million option, he might not have had interest in returning to Milwaukee at any price.
  17. sveumrules
    It doesn't really ignore it so much as it places more emphasis on MM's more recent teams. From 2007 to 2011 it seemed like MM was maybe ahead of the curve relative to other NFL coaches. From 2012 onward, I'd say he started to get passed up & left farther & farther behind.
  18. sveumrules
    Hey Bartender!! Jobu Needs A Refill!!
  19. sveumrules
    Definitely hope to make it one of these years while my body still kind of works.
  20. sveumrules
    Anderson returned a marginal prospect. Guerra signed for less than his arby estimate. Thames remains unsigned. Yes, they all played significant roles on winning Brewers teams, but the market has indicated in all three cases the Brewers made prudent decisions. The players slated to hopefully replace their production will cost less while having projections in the same general range as the players they are replacing. I don't think Stearns & company put much stock into whatever slogans the marketing department comes up with when assembling their roster.
  21. sveumrules
    Even if they "absolutely CAN" afford it (which neither the posted article nor any poster on here truly knows), it has been proven time & time again that large money free agents often turn our poorly and have very real long term consequences, especially for teams with less resources at their disposal. Again, just because the Reds or the Padres or the Phillies or whoever else does it, does not make it a wise decision. If we finish with a better record (yet again) than the aforementioned teams & all the others that outspent us, will you still feel vindicated?
  22. sveumrules
    Miller paid 2 million a year for naming rights. AmFam is paying 4 million, so there's an extra 2 million. That money has been spent 20 times over already just on our paltry free agent signings.
  23. sveumrules
    2014, with league averages of 0.86 HR/9 & 3.74 ERA, was the lowest run scoring year in MLB since 1992, which came in at 0.72 HR/9 & 3.75 ERA. Here are how some league average stats have looked from 2014 through 2019, starting with fly ball percentage... 34.4%, 33.8%, 34.6%, 35.5%, 35.4%, 35.7% Here is home run to fly ball percentage... 9.5%, 11.4%, 12.8%, 13.7%, 12.7%, 15.3% Or, if you prefer HR/9... 0.86, 1.02, 1.17, 1.27, 1.16, 1.40 Doubles are also extra base hits... 8137, 8242, 8255, 8397, 8264, 8531
  24. sveumrules
    I know it's still 2019, but I was messing around with the Brewers franchise leaderboards & came across this tidbit so figured I'd fire up the 2020 Misc MLB News thread a couple two tree days early. There are 137 Brewers with at least 500 PAs. Nine of them have a wRC+ of exactly 113. They are, in alphabetical order... Ollie Brown, Chris Carter, Rob Deer, John Jaha, Geoff Jenkins, Carlos Lee, Alex Ochoa, Danny Walton & Robin Yount. Happy not quite new year yet.
  25. sveumrules
    Sure, anyone could be a TOR ace. In Roegner's case, I'd say it's less than a 1% chance though. I agree, he'll either be very good (<1% chance) or filler (>99% chance).
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