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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Nobody cares about the most popular sport in the world? -
Has a single trade of consequence been made yet? I guess every GM of all the contending teams is just a passive pansy with no big boy pants.
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The Dodgers & Braves have been the only better than mediocre teams in the NL to this point. The Mets, Marlins & Giants have been worse than mediocre. That means three of the remaining ten mediocre teams will make the postseason. Hopefully the Brewers will be one of them.
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Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
FG has it at 54% Cubs, 25% Brewers to win the division. BRef has it at 53% Cubs, 29% Brewers to win the division. 538 has it at 39% Cubs, 27% Brewers to win the division. All three have us finishing 1-3 projected wins behind the Cubs. We knew at the beginning of the season that it would probably come down to the wire & it still looks like it will. -
I believe the Brewers will score again.
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Because Braun and Cain have been better? In avg, or obp or ops? I'm sick of treating Braun like a legacy. Took them forever to get Grandal and Moose ahead of him in the order. Hiura's next. Batting in front of the pitcher? Batting Arcia pseudo lead off? It's clumsy all around. Current publicly available projections look like... Braun: 102-109 wRC+ Cain: 94-104 wRC+ Hiura: 90-99 wRC+ Based on the lineups they've employed I'm guessing the Brewers internal projections are somewhere along those same lines. If Keston continues to hit around his current 117 wRC+ as he gets more PAs his projection should improve & I'd imagine they consider moving him up in the lineup once that point is reached.
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Looking through the lineups it does not appear as though Hiura has batted ahead of Cain or Braun in any of his starts to this point. I'd imagine it stays that way until Keston goes on some kind of tear.
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Obviously? Because you say so?? Again the fact that you don't agree doesn't make the other point of view wrong but I think you know that since I have to correct you just about every day. Not because anyone says so, because the objective data seems to support Hader not being overused based on his ranks relative to other relievers in appearances/IP & the rarity with which he throws on consecutive days.
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There are 96 pitchers with more relief appearances than Hader so far. There are 18 pitchers with more innings in relief to this point. Only three of his 31 appearances have come on consecutive days. He threw a total of 63 pitches over the nine days prior to today. Haha. Sometimes I'll just be walking down the hall & like see a really hard math problem on the chalkboard & then totally solve it just for fun.
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There are 96 pitchers with more relief appearances than Hader so far. There are 18 pitchers with more innings in relief to this point. Only three of his 31 appearances have come on consecutive days. He threw a total of 63 pitches over the nine days prior to today.
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Something else to keep in mind with Houser & his role this year is IP. 78, 17 & 70 the last three years. With a career high of 120 back in 2015 & 60 already this year I would imagine he gets phased out of the rotation & back to the pen at some point.
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His usage isn't really all that different this year than Woodruff's from last year. Start season in AAA rotation. Come up to MLB & bounce between pen & rotation. It all worked out okay for Brandon so far, hopefully Adrian follows a similar path, even if it is a little non-linear.
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Brogdon minutes last three years: 1982, 1436, 1832. Wesley minutes last three years: 2495, 2131, 2091.
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Bledsoe/Hill DDV/Sterling/Patty C Khris Giannis/Ersan/DJ Lopez/Lopez From what I understand we also have a 12 million-ish traded player exception from the Brogdon S&T that we can use to presumably add another wing. Assuming health looks that like a 55-60 win range team to me. Top 1-2 team in East & should be Finals bound if Kawhi goes West.
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Hope everyone (except George Hill, he was okay) can figure out how to better handle post second round of the playoffs pressure in the coming months, otherwise it will have all been for naught yet again.
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Dodgers = #1 seed Atlanta, Philly, Washington, Milwaukee, Chicago, St. Louis, Colorado, San Diego & Arizona all finish with the exact same record & tiebreaker chaos ensues to determine NL Central/East Champions & the wild cards. Dodgers lose their mojo from having nothing to play for over the last couple two tree months of the season (plus all the downtime while tiebreaker chaos is ensuing) & get swept in the NLDS. The vision gets cloudy from there.
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The Brewers currently are one of the top 5 teams in the NL, if they finish the season in the same position maybe we can petition the league to let a team that looks more contender-y to take our postseason spot.
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Interesting examination into the HR Derby "curse"... https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/5/15919218/home-run-derby-curse-2017 "To what extent does the Home Run Derby play into this drop in performance? I’m going to say little-to-none. More often than not, players selected to the Derby are those who are having extremely lucky first halves. That’s why they have been selected in the first place!"
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Why not? I wanted all four players to succeed when they were Brewers & hope they all have productive Major League careers (as long as they aren't Cubs or Cardinals).
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& he has negated most of his positive offensive contributions by being the worst defensive OF in MLB. Domingo: 347 PAs of 129 wRC+ with -15.3 fielding = 0.8 WAR so far or 1.4 WAR/600 PAs. Gamel: 191 PAs of 91 wRC+ with -0.4 fielding = 0.5 WAR so far or 1.6 WAR/600 PAs. They provide similar value (in different ways).
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Pretty sure that the rules only apply to players on the 40 man roster, so anyone else can still be dealt without restriction post deadline & be postseason eligible as long as they are on the MLB team by August 31. This summary from the MLBTR primer on the new deadline rules makes for a good too long did not read version... Between the trade deadline and end of the World Series, MLB players cannot be traded but may be claimed off waivers just like the rest of the year. Players on minor-league contracts can be traded as normal, but MLB contracts that have passed through outright waivers cannot be swapped. The commissioner is empowered to strike down any creative attempts to bypass the rules.
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From my understanding.... If a team wants to waive a player following the trade deadline, they still can. If another team wants to claim that player (& their contract), they still can, but its just a straight claim with no compensation in return. I believe the revocable waivers aspect is no longer in play, however, so once a guy is waived, that's that, no pulling him back. Playoff deadline is still August 31.
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
ZIPS offers an updated look at the NL playoff race as we approach the halfway point, giving us a 64.4% chance at making the postseason... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-national-league/ Excerpted Blurb..."While the Brewers aren’t a depressing franchise, their use of Keston Hiura and Travis Shaw is a real head-scratcher...ZiPS estimates that starting Shaw instead of Hiura over the rest of the season costs the Brewers about a tenth of a playoff appearance. That’s not negligible. -
Phil Regan's manager was Jimmy Dykes. Jimmy Dykes' manager was Connie Mack. Connie Mack was the A's manager in 1898. This dude is 2 steps from the 1800's. Really good interview with Regan over at FG. He got the nickname "the vulture" from Sandy Koufax when he came on in relief & "vultured" some of his wins. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-phil-the-vulture-regan/
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'd say I'm equally optimistic. At the start if the year the only NL team that looked like a guaranteed postseason team was the Dodgers & through this juncture they are still the only NL team that looks like a certain postseason entrant. For every other team in the NL trying to compete for the postseason it was essentially a coin flip. For reference here are 538's preseason playoff odds (from OP), their current numbers & the difference. LAD 79/99 (+20) WAS 59/31 (-28) MIL 46/55 (+9) STL 44/37 (-7) NYM 42/17 (-25) PHI 39/29 (-10) CHI 38/63 (+25) ATL 37/86 (+49) COL 34/34 (0) PIT 21/7 (-14) ARI 21/20 (-1) CIN 18/16 (-2) SDP 14/5 (-9) SFG 6/0 (-6) MIA 1/0 (-1) The East has underwhelmed to this point outside of ATL, so they have shot up. The Central has played out about as expected. The Cubs performance to this point has answered some of their questions coming into the season, while our performance has created more questions, so they've passed us up momentarily, while STL has also underwhelmed. The West is playing out pretty much exactly to expectations with LAD looking like even more of a juggernaut than was previously assumed.
