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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Dodgers (25%/20%), Astros (17%/20%) & Yankees (16%/15%) are the only teams with realistic chances to win the WS according to 538/FanGraphs. According to BRef it's only the Dodgers (31%) & Astros (15%) with a realistic chance to win the WS. I guess for me a "major failure" would be something like what the Nationals are doing. Spend a bunch of money, aim to compete, fall on your face. What the Brewers are doing now, competing for the division/postseason, is exactly in line with expectations. Coming into the season they were not considered WS favorites & no realistic combination of moves could have made them one.
  2. sveumrules
    If this season, where we currently have the 4th best record in the NL (against the 10th highest payroll) is looking like a major failure, what would you call the Giants spending 177 million (3rd in NL) to be the 2nd worst team? Or the Nationals spending 163 million (4th in NL) to likely miss the postseason? Or the Mets spending 159 million (6th in NL) to likely do the same?
  3. sveumrules
    Totally thought this was going to be about how they're running out of space in left field so we'll have to put the 19 pennant somewhere else.
  4. sveumrules
    At the beginning of the season we were about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs. To me that means that being competitive for a playoff spot all season is a success. If we miss the playoffs by a couple two tree games, or even lose in the Wild Card game, I would not consider the season a failure because those were always realistic outcomes.
  5. sveumrules
    Alcides Escobar OPS+ thru age 24: 72 Alcides Escobar career OPS+: 73 Orlando Arcia OPS+ thru age 24: 74 Orlando Arcia career OPS+: ?????
  6. sveumrules
    Since I posted these on June 3rd we have lost a home series to the Marlins & a road series to the Giants, two of the worst teams in baseball, bringing our current Playoff Odds to somewhere around... FG: 60% 538: 67% BRef: 81%
  7. sveumrules
    We are currently 10-10 vs LH starters this season, so it has been a break even strategy at best for opposing teams to this point. For the season we have actually hit LHP (.803 OPS) better than RHP (.782). The Padres just scored 44 runs in four games at Coors Field (11 R/G), in the sixteen games before that they scored 59 runs (3.69 R/G), well below their season average of 4.38 R/G.
  8. sveumrules
    The Brewers are currently 18th in ERA, 14th in FIP & 9th in xFIP. None of those rankings are bad. The ERA is slightly below average, the FIP is slightly above average, the xFIP (which has the best predictive power of the three) is above average.
  9. sveumrules
    League Average FIP 2018: 4.15 League Acerage FIP 2019: 4.44 League Average ERA 2018: 4.15 League Average ERA 2019: 4.44 Looking at the raw numbers is misleading because the run environment has changed drastically from last year on account of the boom in home runs. The ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- marks I have cited account for that difference.
  10. sveumrules
    If they keep this up all year we might have to settle for like the 25th pick in the draft.
  11. sveumrules
    Nice coupla innings from JJ & Josh. One left.
  12. sveumrules
    That depends on who you consider mediocre. I think Davies (5 IP), Houser (2 IP) & Guerra (1 IP) have been better than mediocre this year. That leaves Nelson (4 IP), Claudio (1.2 IP), Burnes (1.1 IP) Anderson (4 IP) & Albers (2 IP) as mediocre or worse. 13/21 = about 62% mediocre pitching. If we use non mediocre pitchers for the remaining 4 (hopefully) innings it will be 13/25 or 52% mediocre pitching in the series.
  13. sveumrules
    We are still winning (for now).
  14. sveumrules
    We've scored one runner from home, one from first, two from second & (wait for it) zero from third today.
  15. sveumrules
    What would constuitute a waste? Missing the playoff? Losing in the Wild Card Game? Losing in the NLDS? Losing in the NLCS? Losing in the World Series?
  16. sveumrules
    The Padres have already scored 32 against the Rockies and they’re only in the 5th inning of the third game of the series. They must be licking their chops over facing Chacin tomorrow. Good thing we don't have to play the Padres at Coors Field.
  17. sveumrules
    I would argue regardless of the xFIP- comparison that there should have been an expectation of improvement from the staff with the rotation overhaul, not a slight regression. Peripherals are great and sabermetrical measures have come a long way toward giving us better ways to analyze what we see, but they're too often interpreted to be the whole story, rather than just part of the story. There are reasons beyond random chance that some pitchers consistently outperform their peripherals and some pitchers consistently underperform their peripherals. I don't think there should have been expectation of improvement from a rotation that was hoping to employ three first full season starters. Even if they are "more talented" than the guys they were replacing, young talent doesn't always equate to immediate results. It turning out how it has was always a reasonable possibility & that we are still in the thick of the postseason picture with two of our three young starters underwhelming speaks to the strength of the organization as a whole, to me at least.
  18. sveumrules
    It looks like they have it on BRef if you scroll down to Player Advanced Fielding... https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml
  19. sveumrules
    Um, we hired DJ directly from the minors for his first MLB pitching coach job. After his first 70 games the Brewers were a bottom five staff in MLB, good thing they didn't end the experiment.
  20. sveumrules
    Sure, DJ has been more successful with his staff in Cincy than Hook has with his staff here. I don't think anyone is trying argue otherwise. When accounting for changing run environments & understanding that comparing full season team ERA to 70 games of team ERA is folly it is less clear that Hook is a dismal failure or that we don't have enough pitching. Our 2019 xFIP- (far more reliable than ERA after 70 games) of 97 is right in line with the 99 mark we posted under DJ in both 2017 & 2018.
  21. sveumrules
    Enough pitching to do what? Win the World Series? At the end of the season only one team will. Last year we didn't have enough pitching in the opinion of many posters & we won the most games in the National League. I believe we have enough pitching to make the postseason & from there anything can happen.
  22. sveumrules
    Definitely a ton of noise in a defensive sample so small & I don't think anyone expects Hiura to be -30 with the glove, but I think what he showed in his limited MLB time fit the scouting reports. I'd put the likelihoods for Hiura's future defensive metrics around (10%) consistent +5 or greater, (45%) zero to +5, (45%) below zero. If he hits like he is supposed to he can probably be around -10 & still end up a 4ish WAR guy. As for Aguilar, gotta think his time is just about up. If he doesn't clear waivers, I hope he can figure it out with whoever picks him up so people can say we gave up on him too soon.
  23. sveumrules
    He's played almost 400 innings at 1st this season. More than either 1B on our roster. And his career high is 698 innings in 2013 when he was six years younger & posted a -8 DRS/-4.2 UZR. Between limited defensive utility, the financial cost & really only needing a RH platton bat at first, not a full time starter, I can understand why Stearns & company decided to pass on EE5.
  24. sveumrules
    Hardly definitive, but there is a who will win the NL Central poll up at MLBTR right now & results are currently around 42% MKE, 39% CHI, 8% STL, 8% CIN & 3% PIT.
  25. sveumrules
    Yelich put up 7.5 WAR last year & is on pace for another 10.5 WAR this year. Add even another conservative 22 WAR for the remaining three years & you're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 WAR as a starting point for Yelich & very likely more by the time he is done with his current contract. I'll take the under on Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto producing 40 WAR combined during their years of team control with the Marlins.
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