sveumrules

PirateFan.net in full on meltdown mode... Lead off double, catcher's interference, a soft tossing lefty with a 5+ ERA, then a a guy with an almost 10 ERA & we can't score a single run?!?!?!

Good thing the Pirates have been even worse than us at manufacturing runs through these first 8 innings.

We have the 7th most wins in MLB over the last 2 1/3 seasons. Whatever we're doing is working out ok.

Eddie Sedar getting us another run with an aggressive send.

Or he could have hit into a double play. With runners on second and third? Not likely. When I saw this post was after Davies struck out with a runner on first & one out. Lyles moved a runner up after Davies first at bat, so I thought you were referincing what had just happened, not what happened earlier in the game.

Or he could have hit into a double play.

Thames not impressed by the Lyles curve.

Orlando has shown these brief flashes before... June 2017 | 326/370/478 Sept 2018 | 329/360/443 ...it's always been a matter of doing it more consistently. Fingers crossed this is him turning the corner. League Average SS so far for 2019 is at 267/327/443 (102 wRC+) compared to 264/335/431 (98 wRC+) for Arcia. Interesting to note is league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87 & 92 every season from 2002 through 2017 before jumping to 97 last year & now 102 this year, so the offensive profile of the position might be evolving (or it might be a blip).

I've got a feeling if Yasmani keeps this up & can make it through the postseason without forgetting how to catch/block balls that we'll find the cash to bring him back.

When we were up 5-0 our win probability was around 92 percent. When the Pirates went up 7-5 their win probability was around 80 percent, so about a 72 point swing. When we went up 8-7 our win probability peaked around 75 percent, so another 55 point swing. When the Pirates went up 10-8 their win probability was around 93 percent, so another 68 point swing. When we won the game our win probability was 100 percent, so a 93 point swing. Pretty wild. You must be at least this tall to ride the ride.

Fourth page of IGT unlocked

Did he send his letter in english or did he not try and send it in spanish instead? Eso me da una sonrisa grande.

Just saw Zobrist hasn't played in almost a month & might miss the rest of the season going through a divorce. Anything like that ever happened before?

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Lorenzo has 1,460 career PAs batting 3rd, his most in any lineup position. Leadoff is second most at 899.

FanGraphs published their final pre-draft farm system rankings & it looks like they have the Brewers at #17... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/

Nice, where did you get that stat from? FanGraphs recently added a "+ stats" feature to their leaderboards. It's on the far right in the row of tabs with dashboard, standard, advanced, etc. Currently Willians Astudillo has a career K%+ of 14, making him the hardest batter to strike out in the history of MLB (minimum 199 PAs).

Buckner's contact ability was truly elite for any era. He had a K%+ of 35, meaning he struck out 65% less than league average for his career, which is 16th all time among batters with a minimum of 4,000 PAs. Other notables on the career K%+ leaderboard in include Nellie Fox (20), Tony Gwynn (29), Lloyd Waner (29), Tris Speaker (33), Juan Pierre (34), Fernando Vina (38), Ozzie Smith (40).

Excerpt from Smeltzer's FG write up on the twins system... "Most pitchers tuck their gloves in by their ribs when they disconnect and begin to clear their front sides; Smeltzer’s glove extends way out away from his body, the start of one of baseball’s funkiest deliveries. Repertoire depth, plus fastball and breaking ball spin, and efficient strike-throwing all mix with the mechanical deception to enable Smeltzer’s success despite a lack of velocity."

We are now over 1/3rd through the season, so seems like a good time to check back in our pitching staff & how they stack up around the league. Apr 20: K9 9.34 (12th) BB9 3.94 (22nd) HR9 1.85 (28th) ERA 5.21 (25th) FIP 5.07 (25th) xFIP 4.34 (17th) What I said then: The only thing dreadful is a fluky high HR9 (which can happen over less than 200 team IP thus far) which is driving the poor ERA/FIP numbers. I'd bet our ERA/FIP are closer to our current xFIP at season's end than their current levels. May 9: K9 9.33 (9th) BB9 3.66 (20th) HR9 1.51 (26th) ERA 4.60 (21st) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.14 (10th) What I said then: So in just under three weeks our current ERA/FIP have almost caught up with our xFIP from April 20th, while our current xFIP has lowered to a top 10 mark on account of our gains in BB9/HR9 & other teams' losses in K9. Interesting to note is that our ERA is currently underperforming our xFIP, while over the last three years it has been the exact opposite with our ERA outperforming our xFIP by an average of 0.30 per season. (3.94 ERA vs 4.24 xFIP, 2016-18) Assuming DJ's pixie dust wasn't solely responsible for that, it could indicate that our pitching staff is due for even more positive regression than some of the surface level indicators say. May 28: K9 9.22 (9th) BB9 3.55 (19th) HR9 1.46 (24th) ERA 4.34 (15th) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.22 (11th) So it only took about five weeks for our ERA to catch up with our xFIP from April 20. Our FIP/xFIP also appear to be stabilizing, though the ERA continues to fall. If we can continue our three year trend of outperforming our xFIP we should have no problem getting the team ERA below 4.00 by year's end.

I'm sure he can. I'm also sure he's more comfortable in his native tongue. Ichiro had a translator his entire career.

How about the month before? Are you willing to guarantee the same level of success next month with the same group? I mean, you can cherry pick a given month but that doesn't tell the whole story, Yes, six runs a game is hyperbole but let's not pretend this team isn't dependent on out hitting the other team to win. Sure, they have some success against lesser offenses but when they play good offenses this becomes glaringly clear. I'm not sure 13 games is a representative sample. Are you telling me they don't have a significantly better shot at beating the dodgers with a better rotation last year? Do you not recall the pitching kabuki they had to partake in against the Dodgers just to make it through. I'd say the lack of better starting options was absolutely their undoing unless you think the World Series is not the objective. At the start of the season non scrap heap soft tossers Peralta & Burnes were in the rotation, so I'd say those results are less relevant moving forward. I'd say neither the 2.99 ERA of the last 30 days nor the 5.14 ERA in April are representative of the true talent level of the rotation, but I would bet (& hope) our starters season ERA ends up closer to the former. Of course having a better rotation would have helped last year, so would an extra 100 million in payroll. The rotation we did have lead us to the most wins in the NL & Game 7 of the NLCS in a season where half the posters on this board didn't predict we'd make the postseason. Hard for me to term that anything but a success. Also, wow Jeffress.

Preseason we were expected to contend for the postseason. We are currently contending for the postseason. So I guess lots of people thought we would end up like this. Even if you think Gio is a crap heap soft tosser (I personally think his career track record excludes him from any scrap heap talk), who are the other scrap heap soft tossers in our rotation? Plenty of prognosticators questioned this teams ability to contend, almost exclusively based on the lack of a quality rotation. Anderson was a throw in trade piece, Gonzalez was literally a scrap heap signing, Davies we got for Gerardo Parra and Chacin was a cheap sign. I highly doubt any one of those guys would return anything of value in a trade and collectively don't measure up to the Dodgers, Cubs, Philles or Braves just to name a few. They may be a contender for a playoff spot but they are not on par with those other teams when it comes to pitching. It isn't fair to continue to ask this lineup to score a minimum of six runs a game to win the majority of the time. Slice it how you want to, the starting pitching is weak and it's weak becuse they rely predominantly on marginal pitchers with little room for error. The Brewers are 11-2 so far in games where they score between 3 & 5 runs, they don't need to score six to win. Over the last 30 days our starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA, 2nd best in the NL. People said our rotation was weak last year & would be our undoing, it wasn't.

Preseason we were expected to contend for the postseason. We are currently contending for the postseason. So I guess lots of people thought we would end up like this. Even if you think Gio is a crap heap soft tosser (I personally think his career track record excludes him from any scrap heap talk), who are the other scrap heap soft tossers in our rotation?

Stoked to see Astudillo behind the plate for a full game. Also had never heard of Luis Arraez before I saw the lineup & he sounds like another interesting low K guy, though still nowhere near Willians in that regard.

Pedroia got 31 million to be hurt 2018-19 & is still due another 25 million for 2020-21. Makes Braun seem like a steal by comparison. Great career for Dustin though, had a peak right in line with Biggio/Alomar but probably a little short on the counting stats to get the Hall call.