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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Texas Rangers scored 8 more runs than their opponents this season & won 95 games. The LA Angels scored 10 runs less than their opponents and won 74 games. The "true talent" level of a team undoubtedly has the largest influence on a team's record, but other factors still play a significant role, namely sequencing which some refer to as luck as it has consistently demonstrated very little correlation over multiple seasons. In regards to the Brewers 2016 I think everything went just about as best it could. Lucroy was healthy, performed & was traded for a haul. Braun was healthy & productive. Guys like Villar, Broxton, Perez, Davies, Guerra & Thorny all showed they are legit players. The only area that underwhelmed was starting pitching, but if Nelson & Peralta pitched to expectations all year we probably aren't picking top ten anymore so its not the worst of possible outcomes.
  2. sveumrules
    I agree that the umps blew it (both the initial call & early exit from field) but it took Price 33 seconds (per Brian Kenny) to come out of the dugout & start looking to challenge the call. If he was paying any attention at all he would've been out of the dugout before Carpenter ever crossed home plate.
  3. sveumrules
    Segura lowered his hands at the suggestion of Luis Mercedes who he worked with over the winter in the Dominican Republic. Nice to see him experiencing success again.
  4. sveumrules
    No breaking news here but it looks like somewhere from 8-10 will be the pick in 2017. Coming into the season if you asked me to name a three pick range where I saw us drafting I would've probably said something like 4-6 so I guess that means the Brewers exceeded my expectations this year. Yippee.
  5. sveumrules
    I wonder if there is such a thing as "strength of schedule" for a pitcher. It looks like BP keeps track of the average OPS faced by each pitcher in MLB. Looks like the average batter in 2016 has slashed 255/322/418, I left in pitchers since Garza has faced several. Per BP the average batter faced by Garza has had a triple slash of 261/326/421, ever so slightly above league average. Results against Garza this year have been 283/341/432 so the batters he has faced have fared better off of him than they have against the rest of the league.
  6. sveumrules
    With regards to Scooter... I was at a game a few weeks back & was sitting club section first base side. Some Brewers were warming up down the line and I saw Scooter looking to throw the ball he was playing catch with into the stands. I yelled out something like "Up here, Scooter! Show me your arm Ryan!" He pointed and threw the ball up, overshooting me by a couple rows even & some guy behind me snagged the ball.
  7. sveumrules
    How hard would it be to just redistribute the money allotted for any picks the Cardinals are docked to other draft slots so that the overall amount stays the same? If they're worried about one or two less players being drafted because STL loses picks then give them the picks back at the end of the draft. Right now STL are on pace to pick 16th in the 2017 draft. The 16th pick in the most recent draft had a slot amount of 2.66 million, it was 2.53 million the year before. Let's say next year it will be about 2.8 million dollars. Dock STL the pick, and raise all the other slot amounts by however much it divides out to. Quick & dirty it looks like all slots from round 1-10 could be raised by about 9 grand going that route.
  8. sveumrules
    Bummer. Read it was the right wrist which is probably the better of the two to break from a hitting perspective, though worse from a throwing perspective.
  9. sveumrules
    Mendez was right there. Mendez was added to the 40 man roster before the season ended so I don't believe he was eligible to be the PTBNL. Doesn't matter. Cordell isn't even in the same dimension as Brinson/Ortiz. Being wrong is fine, but those reports about the PTBNL were a load of BS and not even close. What reports exactly? Rosenthal was quoted as saying "a significant piece, perhaps along the lines of the other two players in the trade [brinson and Ortiz]." Key word here is perhaps. As we know there were no prospects along the lines of Brinson/Ortiz left in the TEX system who were eligible to be the PTBNL so that clearly was not going to be the case. The quote I found from Stearns was "The player to be named later will also be a player we like a lot who will contribute to our system." Nowhere does he say that the PTBNL will be similar to Brinson/Ortiz.
  10. sveumrules
    Anyone who thought we were getting a prospect similar to Brinson/Ortiz as the PTBNL missed taking their grain of salt somewhere along the line as there were no prospects left in the TEX system who were similar to Brinson/Ortiz.
  11. sveumrules
    There's surely some luck in Guerra's ERA/FIP differential but he has also induced a higher than league average number of infield fly balls which is a trait often displayed by perennial FIP beaters such as Chris Young, Marco Estrada, Hector Santiago, etc. He's also produced a very low HR/9 rate (0.74 for Guerra vs 1.25 for a league average starter) though he doesn't have enough IP to determine if that is flukey or hopefully a repeatable skill moving forward.
  12. sveumrules
    Here's one for AJ Pierzynski... One of those now-it-can-be-told stories the White Sox, A.J. Pierzynski's new employer, surely haven't heard: During a Giants exhibition game last spring, Pierzynski took a shot to his, shall we say, private parts. Trainer Stan Conte rushed to the scene, placed his hands on Pierzynski's shoulders in a reassuring way, and asked how it felt. "Like this," said Pierzynski, viciously delivering a knee to Conte's groin. It was a real test of professionalism for the enraged Conte, who vowed to ignore Pierzynski for the rest of the season until Conte realized how that would look. The incident went unreported because all of the beat writers happened to be doing in-game interviews in the clubhouse, but it was corroborated by a half-dozen eyewitnesses who could hardly believe their eyes. Said one source, as reliable as they come: "There is absolutely no doubt that it happened." Also remember Paul Wagner telling a Bonds story on WSSP awhile back. From looking at game logs it appears it was September 15, 1992. Wagner came in with the Pirates down 2-1 in the 5th and retired the side. In the Pirates half of the inning Bonds hit a 2 run HR to give them the lead and set up Wagner for his first career win. Wagner said Bonds came in and was high fiving everyone in the dugout but when he got to Wagner he spit at his feet and said something along the lines of "Don't (expletive) blow this game, rookie." Also believe there is a story out there about Bonds' college teammates voting to kick him off the team because they couldn't stand the guy.
  13. sveumrules
    Something else to consider in regards to Davis (& all batting numbers this year) is that league wide slugging is at peak steroid era levels currently. League average ISO is at .167 this year after .153 last year and .138 in 2013. The last time league wide ISO was this high was 1999, 2000 & 2001 when it hit .167, .171, & .167. That's one reason why despite Davis being a "40 HR guy" and going to a tougher league and much tougher park that his wRC+ has actually declined from last year, 121 in 2015 to 116 in 2016. Though obviously the walk rate falling from 10% to 5.5% hurts too.
  14. sveumrules
    Just one man's opinion but I posed a similar question during the fangraphs prospect chat with Eric Longenhagen today... Will Brewers helium prospects like Erceg, Woodruff or Isan Diaz make it onto some top 100s this winter? Similarly will guys like Maverick Phillips or Trent Clark who largely underwhelmed fall off? Diaz is a firm "yes", Erceg and Woodruff might get one their. Phillips I've never been that high on while I'm inclined to be patient with Clark despite his struggles.
  15. sveumrules
    Domingo with an absolute laser beam to center followed by Arcia going yard opposite field. Nice sequence.
  16. sveumrules
    Definitely. When FG published their Farm System Rankings based on KATOH projections before the season the Brewers were far and away in first place at 86 projected WAR with Houston in second at 77 so it seems likely that Stearns & Co are using some kind of KATOHesque system as a component of their player evaluations.
  17. sveumrules
    Looks like back to back lefties means Broxton & Santana get consecutive starts together for the first time since Domingo came back off the DL. Santana started his first game off the DL on August 19th. There have been 19 games played since then (tonight will be 20) with the OF starts in those games breaking down as follows...Braun (16), Broxton (15), Kirk (13), Domingo (10), Elmore (3), Perez (3). Broxton came up from AAA and got his first start in CF on 07/26. Since then there have been 42 games (tonight will be 43) with the CF starts breaking down as Broxton (32), Kirk (11).
  18. sveumrules
    Coming into the year I was hoping for a top 5 pick but figured we'd probably end up in the 6-10 range. I'd like the best possible draft slot & bonus pool but at the end of the day if nine other teams are better at being bad than we were I guess you tip your cap to them?
  19. sveumrules
    Interesting to see Haniger have such a monster year, looks like maybe he finally figured out how to put some of his tools to use. Banda continues to steadily climb the ladder for Arizona too. I think if they were still in our system they'd probably slot into that 11-15 range maybe? Has also been fun keeping up on Segura this year. I thought his numbers would slide as the season wore on and pitchers had a chance to adjust but he's kept right on going. Good for him.
  20. sveumrules
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-brewers-acquisition-ryan-cordell/ For whatever it is or isn't worth, the stats based projection models seem to think Cordell is a nice sleeper prospect.
  21. sveumrules
    Counsell registered 22.3 bWAR as the 319th player selected in his draft. Of the 318 players drafted ahead of him only 8 have a higher career bWAR. I find it hard to argue he did anything other than maximize whatever potential he had.
  22. sveumrules
    Unless CC & DS collaborate on things such as playing time & usage, which I believe is likely the norm at this point especially among the more analytically inclined teams. I thought people would be excited about Kirk getting so much playing time as it should help our draft position next year.
  23. sveumrules
    Even with what may seem like a surplus of OF prospects we are nowhere close to critical mass. Assuming no injuries I'd guess next year's OF starters will shake out something like this... MLB: Braun, Broxton, Santana. AAA: Brinson, Phillips, Cordell. AA: Coulter, Taylor?, Davis? A+: Ray, Clark?, Stokes? A: Harrison, Oriomoloye, Segovia?
  24. sveumrules
    The OBP may have been low this year but his 127 wRC+ was 10th in the Texas League among qualifiers while his .484 SLG was 2nd in the league. Can also run a little and play all three OF spots plus maybe some 3B/1B. So we're talking about a guy with above average production & a wide base of skills (power, speed, defensive versatility). Sounds like a Stearns kind of guy to me.
  25. sveumrules
    I know it's never a good idea to parse an already small sample into even smaller samples but Keon has had a very up & down season to this point which should make him an interesting one to follow when the 2017 projections start to come out. His current full season line is at 240/360/415. As we all know he got off to a terrible start and was sitting at 125/253/188 over 75 plate appearances before being sent down to AAA after July 1. He came back up July 26 and went on a tear with his new stance hitting 361/465/667 over 87 PAs through August 21 when his single season slash line peaked at 250/366/441. In the eleven games & 42 PAs since then Keon has cooled off considerably hitting 200/333/314. The variance in his results so far this year kind of reminds me of Jean Segura's career on a much smaller scale. Segura has a career line of 278/317/378 good for an 88 wRC+ but has never really come close to that in any single season with individual wRC+ marks of 105, 67, 63 & 122.
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