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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Will be curious to see who Sickels has as the B grade, Nelson or Taylor. Nelson is obviously closer to the majors with a higher likelihood of hitting his lower ceiling as compared to Taylor who clearly has the higher upside but is farther away from the majors with a higher variance in potential outcomes. Also just want to note that Sickels is probably my favorite "prospect expert" to follow. Lots of great stuff on his site all year long.
  2. sveumrules
    The thing that bothers me about Law (not that his analysis of the current state of the system is incorrect) is that he tends strongly towards absolutism. This attitude seems increasingly prevalent in the "sabrmetric community" which confuses me somewhat as I always thought the whole point was to look at the game in a different way and keep an open mind toward a myriad of possibilities previously unconsidered. Seems kind of hard to do that when you already know you are right about everything.
  3. sveumrules
    Wouldn't surprise me at all if Edinson has a bounceback 2014 similar to Liriano's in 2013.
  4. sveumrules
    On the bright side our pick is 12. On the less than bright side last time BS drafted that high he passed on Jose Fernandez in favor of Jungmann and about a half dozen other highly regarded arms in favor of Bradley a few picks later. In regards to Garza, it will be interesting to see what comes out, if anything today. You hope it's just something in the language/$$$ distribution, but with his history you can't rule out something in the medicals regardless of what the FO tells McCalvy/TH. As much as I'd like to see Nelson, Thornburg and Smith fight it out for the 5th spot in spring, I'd feel better with Yo/Lohse/Garza/Marco/Wily & Nelson as the 6th in Nashville and a bullpen of Henderson/Kintzler/Gorzo/Smith/Thornburg. Stash Wang as the long man and sign a cheap vet (KRod yet again?) or let W00t3n, Figaro, etc fight it out for the last BP spot.
  5. sveumrules
    I'd rather we burn the pick by signing a player that has proven he can play in MLB than burn it by allowing Bruce Seid to make the selection.
  6. sveumrules
    Here is a link to an article from the Hardball Times examining payroll and wins in the free agency era... http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/money-and-wins/ There is a lot of information in there, but the take away is essentially this, "The current state of the game? Despite the outrageous spending ways of the Yankees, it's settled into a pattern that is more competitive than any previous time period, other than the years of collusion." "The mega markets windows are open forever." This is just not true. How is the Philadelphia Phillies window looking currently? Or either of the Chicago teams? Or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California? Or the New York Mets? "Why should the Rays have to trade fan favorites like David Price and James Shields if the Yankees or Red Sox do not?" That question assumes that signing players to free agent prices is a better move than trading them for younger, cost controlled talent. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. I'd rather have Wil Myers at reduced prices for 6 years than Shields at close to market rate for 3. I know I'm glad the Brewers weren't financially able to give Prince Fielder 9 years and 214 million dollars. Being able to outspend your opposition is an advantage, I'm not denying that. All I'm saying is that the extent to which it is an advantage is way overblown. Saying "Milwaukee has zero competitive chance in MLB today" may well be a true statement, but if it is it has very little to do with their payroll/market size and much more to do with their inability to identify and develop young talent.
  7. sveumrules
    The Yankees spent 229 million last year to miss the playoffs. The Rays, Pirates and A's combined spent a total of 192 million and each made the playoffs. Since the 2008 season the Yankees have spent approximately 1.269 BILLION dollars to win 564 games, most in MLB over that time. Tampa has won the second most games over that same time frame, 550, while only spending about 348 million in payroll. The Rangers have spent 64, 92, 121 & 125 million the last 4 years. They have won 90, 96, 93 & 91 games. Their 2013 payroll was double their 2009 payroll, and they won one more game. Sure the richer teams have an advantage, but it guarantees nothing. The reason the Brewers are in a less than ideal place on the win/talent curve currently isn't because they can't spend to bring in the best free agents, it's because they can't identify and develop young talent.
  8. sveumrules
    "I said we might still look at somebody else." It's going to make for some fun reading round here when DMGM inks Kendrys Morales to the Kyle Lohse special a couple two tree weeks before spring training. Hey, who knows, maybe giving up first round picks for proven MLB veterans will become the new market inefficiency and they'll make a movie about it.
  9. sveumrules
    If you assume 13 position players, though it's never a sure thing with this organization, you gotta think Luc, Maldy, Reynolds, Ryan Gennett, ARam, Segura, Bianchi, Khrush, GoGo, Braun and Schafer are sure bets right now. I think this is overall a pretty good group. Maldy, Bianchi and Schafer give you good back up defense all over the diamond, while the lineup should produce near the top of the NL assuming luck doesn't take a dump on us. I'd think Weeks and Gindl have the inside track on the last two spots with Francisco taking Weeks spot if we can find a taker in spring training or decide to eat the cash. I agree with JB12 that it would be nice to upgrade the Weeks/Francisco spot (I'm fine with Gindl as a 5th OF) and like his Betemit suggestion. Would also inquire with Cleveland on Lonnie Chisenhall's availability with Carlos Santana lined up as the Tribe's third baseman.
  10. sveumrules
    I tend to prefer fangraphs version of WAR personally. That said in this particular instance I would take player A as his values are less divergent between the two systems. An example like this does a great job of illustrating the shortcomings of WAR, however. Without knowing how much of each individual value is derived from offense, playing time, defense and position the numbers don't really tell us anything of substance. Just goes to show that WAR should start the conversation, not end it. My personal favorite is Cabrera/Trout. Over the last three years they have identical WARS of 21.1 per fangraphs. Of course Cabrera has 134 more games/547 more plate apperances than does Trout over that same time frame.
  11. sveumrules
    What makes you think he is capable of putting up an OPS of 800 in MLB when he hasn't been able to do it in 3 of his 4 minor league seasons? There were 13 qualified first basemen last year in MLB who put up an OPS of 800 or above. Their minor league OPS ranged from 809 to 1052. Morris is at 808 career, though he started professionally at age 21. The only guys in his range for their minor league careers were Edwin Encarnacion (809), Adrian Gonzalez (813), Brandon Moss (829), Freddie Freeman (838) and Mike Napoli (848). Though all five of them started in the minors between 17 & 18 and had made the majors well before their 25th birthdays.
  12. sveumrules
    Hunter Morris OPS by season. 2010 : 742 2011 : 770 2012 : 920 2013 : 766 One of these things is not like the others, one of these things doesn't belong.
  13. sveumrules
    600 PA, 300/350/550, 30 HR, 100 RBI.
  14. sveumrules
    Lohse is fine. 15th in MLB over the last two seasons in RA9. Gallardo should bounce back. I'll blame his early struggles on the WBC. Bork nailed it with Estrada, if he turns in his first 200 inning campaign he should also be fine. As jericho illustrated he compares favorably with Yo in career rate stats. Peralta is the big wild card. Can he take a step forward and go all Fausto Carmona circa 2007? I don't see why not. I'd honestly prefer a "veteran" 5 to be signed or traded for. I think Thornburg and Smith profile best in the bullpen long term with Jimmy Nelson as the 6th starter in Nashville. I'd also try to stash Wang all year for mop up/long man duty. Very intriguing, this Wang.
  15. sveumrules
    If only he would have done this before game 4 of the 2008 NLDS.
  16. sveumrules
    Young's -.2 WAR would be a 1.6 win upgrade over YuniBees -1.8. Sign me up. (Blue font)
  17. sveumrules
    I'm not saying I approve of signing Kendrys, I'm saying that given the organization's pattern of sacrificing the future for the present, it is the most likely. Especially considering he is a switch hitter to balance out our righty heavy lineup and the only "proven bat" on the list. They will sell it as his numbers will rise leaving Seattle, his defensive metrics were good when he last played the field and the injury was freak/two years ago. They'll point to Lohse and say he was our most consistent starter all year, and while it sucks to lose a pick prospects are no sure bet to succeed and even the best take 2-3 years to make an MLB impact.
  18. sveumrules
    The reason our young players have had to force their way into the major league lineup of late is because for the most part they haven't been very good or highly regarded. Some people think Taylor Green still hasn't gotten a fair shake when the answer is that Taylor Green just isn't very good. When the prospects were of the caliber of Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Braun they were rushed to the big club or trades were made to open space for them. The guys we have now aren't as good so they have to work harder to earn their way/prove they belong. Makes sense to me.
  19. sveumrules
    I predicted Aoki to KC for a reliever before it went down which makes my gut feeling that we are going to sign Kendrys Morales to the Kyle Lohse Memorial Contract about a week before Spring Training all the more unsettling.
  20. sveumrules
    Am I the only one getting a really bad feeling that we're going to stand pat for a few months and then sign Kendrys Morales to a Lohsesque deal right before Spring Training?
  21. sveumrules
    I'd prefer to keep Braun in the outfield as long as possible. He has improved to the point where he is no longer a liability there and his reactions/range at third were so terrible that I'd prefer not see them again at first base anytime soon.
  22. sveumrules
    If it has to be one of the guys from the Mets I would greatly prefer Lucas Duda over Ike Davis.
  23. sveumrules
    The sad/funny thing is after Nelson, Jungmann, Williams and Lopez this guy could be about our 5th best pitching prospect.
  24. sveumrules
    I like the pick up. Stash the kid as a long reliever/low leverage guy all year, build his arm/innings up and see what you've got.
  25. sveumrules
    I agree with you Jim, if Halladay isn't a Hall of Famer than I don't know who gets in that spent the majority of their career in the 21st century. Of active pitchers I'd say only Kershaw, Verlander, King Felix and CC have anything resembling a chance at this point.
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