sveumrules

Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes were listed as the number three and ten prospects respectively in the Arizona system over at fangraphs. Not a very good sign for the Dbacks future.

I'm very curious about Davis this year. Let's say he goes out and hits 308/385/489 for Appleton this year. I'd be encouraged. At the same time that is Gindl's current career line, only Caleb will be in AA this year, has 2 1/2 succesful minor league seasons under his belt, is similar statured/handed as Kentrail and also 2 months YOUNGER.

I'm gonna project out a 288/343/401 line for Carlos Gomez with about +15 on the defensive side.

Since Gerut can capably man all three outfield spots I was kinda hoping we'd take a flyer on Matt Stairs for the 5th OF spot. Looks like a minor league deal was all it took. I'm a big fan of his approach as a pinch hitter and I'm sure that combined with his everyman appeal would have made him a fan favorite again.

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Of all the things you listed only one, spitballing, gives a player an unfair competitive advantage. And i would hardly say the effects are as drastic as steroids. It's not like Niekro was putting up 5 ERAs and then all of a sudden started roughing up balls and popping sub 2 ERAs or anything like that. I guess you could also argue that barring Negroes from the league gave players an unfair advantage but that was the owners' decision, not the players'. Ultimately the steroids era is just like any other era in baseball history. It presents a unique set of circumstances and the players who played during that time will have to be held up to one another for comparison's sake. I for one look forward to someday having to explain to any potential children i may sire why Bonds, Sosa, McGwire and Clemens aren't in the hall despite their record breaking achievements.

Except here's the thing, the Brewers offered Sheets arbitration after 2008 which he declined, so they were willing to engage in contract talks. I'm assuming you're referring to Suppan with the last bit but the thing is in 2007 he made 6 million while Sheets made 10 million and in 2008 he made 8 million while Sheets made 11 million. Last year was the first time that Suppan out earned Sheets, 12.5 million to zero.

At this point I'd really like to see us roll the dice on Smoltz if we're gonna sign another starter. Despite his Boston struggles he put up a 3.87 FIP, though the sample is so small and he was also coming back from injury that it's hard to put too much stock into any of the results. I think he was a little over 5 million last year, so maybe we could guarantee him 3 million or so and throw in another 3 or 4 in performance incentives. After that I'd probably prefer (considering probable price/2010 production) Davis, Washburn, Garland in that order. I think all three would provide slight upgrades just by eating some innings, albeit in pretty ugly fashion. As for the remaining injury guys, I'd still love to have Sheets back but I think that ship sailed long ago and his contract demands are probably my favorite thing of the entire 2010 offseason. So insane. I'd probably prefer Bedard to the trio of BLAH above but I don't see Melvin offering even a one year deal to someone who probably won't be ready to start the season and has had issues with motivation in the past, even though he does offer the highest potential upside after Benny. I see a Wang/Torre reunion in LA, too.

He could have hit 70 his rookie year...if he squeezed in about 240 more ABs.

everything i've read suggests that while his stuff is certainly major league quality that his command of it needs some work. i think best case scenario is whoever signs him will start him off at AA and maybe bring him up midseason if he impresses there.

i'd love to roll the dice on aroldis but between him needing at least a year in the minors and the fact that our offer would have to be significantly higher due to us being the milwaukee brewers it's probably not gonna happen. seems like a bargain though for a quarter or so of matsuzaka's total cost.

i'm not saying i expect liriano to bounce back to his prime numbers, but he seems highly capable of putting up a 4.50ish ERA in the NL which certainly has some value.

Have seen some rumblings that Minnesota might be interested in moving Liriano. If he ends up getting moved for a not so impressive return it'll be kind of disappointing that Melvin couldn't have gotten creative and gotten him in with the Hardy deal by adding something on our end. Seems like a prime example of the risk/reward type guy we should be targeting, especially coming to the NL.

Instead, we are getting a hometown shunning from Sheets. Have to wonder what is going on with the management of this team. i actually wonder more what is going on with ben sheets. let's see, accept arby last offseason when you know you're hurt and get 12 million or more to sit home and rehab all year or try to trick some team into signing you to a huge multi year deal under the false impression that you're actually healthy? i also fail to see how a hurt pitcher with a handful of quality starts under his belt signing a below market deal with the only big league club he has ever played for reflects negatively on milwaukee or our signing of randy wolf.

rivera's .688 career OPS would play great at first base. but then again 2010 is only gonna be his age 33 season so there's still room to improve. there's a reason why mike rivera has been around as long as he has and still has yet to accumulate a single seasons worth of plate appearances over his entire career.

with bogut's injury it makes me scratch my head even more about joe alexander over brook lopez. i don't think lopez is an all star by any means but he is at least serviceable and you can never have enough quality bigs.

an elite defender at a premium defensive position is worth five million dollars easily. the runs you prevent count just as much as the ones you create even if run prevention is a little trickier to quantify.

in case anyone was curious during his tenure with SEA washburn put up a 3.99 era in 340.2 innings at safeco and a 4.35 era in 326.2 innings away from it. a notable difference, but nothing more extreme than your typical home/road split. by comparison, and i realize it's just one example, during sheets time in MKE he put up a 3.50 home era in 750 innings and a 3.97 in 698 road innings. surely safeco has helped washburn over the last few years, but the extent to which it has is a) hard to accurately quantify and therefore b) probably overstated. i have a feeling at this point that one of washburn/sharpie and whoever we get in a hardy trade will be our two "new" starters next year, but as long as it isn't loopan or souper i'll at least give it a chance. and cross my fingers. and toes.

if ryan howard has 12 strikeouts (world series record) and protection is real, then how does chase utley have (another series record) five home runs?

washburn FIPS last three years | 4.77, 4.72, 4.58 suppan FIPS last three years | 4.42, 5.51, 5.70 i guess you could say that washburn is suppan but a more accurate statement to me would be, "three years ago when healthy suppan pitched as effectively in the NL as washburn did in a pitcher's park in the AL." say what you will about the imperfections of FIP, but when it comes to events primarily within the control of the pitcher washburn has been far superior the past two seasons, while facing designated hitters instead of pitchers.

2010 will be mike rivera's 8th major league campaign and his age 33 season. he still has yet to accumulate 600 career plate appearances. if that doesn't scream career back up i don't know what does. i have a feeling angel will be used as a sweetener in the JJ deal, lucroy will spend all year and succeed in nashville readying himself for an opening day MLB job in 2011.

i think we can afford to keep cameron and still acquire two new starting pitchers as hopefully the starter coming back in trade will be a low service time player.

unless you can get two top arms which you control for a long time (think kershaw & martin from LAD for instance) for fielder i think at this point we're best served taking two years of elite production and then the picks. multiple young high upside pitchers is the only way we can get fair value in return and with the premium placed on these types of players i just don't see a deal coming together.

i'd put jeffress on the 40 man and try to fast track him as a reliever. i know many here believe he should be given every chance to succeed as starter (a theory i subscribe to for most pitchers) but given his unique circumstances/skillset it would seem to be the best way for the club to get any return on their investment in a timely fashion. plus, the thought of him and braddock in the pen together kinda makes me feel like i'm climbing the rope in gym class.

i'm sure melvin realized that the rotation needed serious work in the offseason and made numerous attempts to rectify the situation. at the same time no one on this board has any idea what kind of offers we were getting or making for hardy. theoretically a SS of his caliber coming off back to back 4+ win seasons with two full years of service time remaining could net quite a nice haul, but if the offers being received were not amounting to fair value in DM's mind then of course you hang on to your 4 win SS. i definitely don't recall anyone forecasting his implosion this year at any time in the offseason threads. as for the escobar/andrus comp that seems to be a fair one. for 2009 so far the ballpark ranks 4th in Runs, 7th in HR, 5th in Hits, 5th in 2B and 2nd in 3B so despite not profiling as a power hitter it has undoubtedly helped andrus put up an almost tulowitzki-esque split line in his rookie campaign. at the same time i would take his road line over JJs full season line, but again if you had logged in and predicted JJs current 226/297/356 slash sometime in february most here would have scoffed and rightfully so. the only real lesson to be gleamed from all this is that baseball is crazy game and unexpected things happen all the time. was the pitching staff talented to start the year? no. was it talented enough to keep us in first place for a good portion of the year even with manny parra and carlos villanueva drastically underperforming before injuries hit bush and suppan? yes, it was. i don't think that hardy even packaged with some combination of hart/mcgehee/salome is going to bring back that impressive of a package but at this time it is unfortunately the only move to make it would seem. i'd imagine most teams value escobar/gamel as our 4th/5th most valuable trade chips after braun/fielder/yo but they are just too necessary for our success over the next six years that trading either of them would be difficult unless we were somehow getting back a matusz or bumgarner or hanson type prospect which i just don't see happening as those sorts of high ceiling pitching prospects are rarely moved.