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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    That's true, but the guy who is gonna win it in the AL looked like this, 8.36/2.52/0.61. I'd say when your FIP compares favorably with a CY winner that you are definitely a candidate for a team MVP.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, I can think of about 300 guys who'd love to have Braun's (or Prince's for that matter) DOWN year.
  3. sveumrules
    9.73, 3.65, 0.58 9.79, 3.22, 0.76 That's K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. One of those guys is our ace and the other won CY the last two years.
  4. sveumrules
    I thought he was gonna lose it on that Brandon Phillips shot to lead off the 4th for a second there.
  5. sveumrules
    YO has faced 803 batters this year. Weeks has 741 plate appearances. Starting pitchers may only go once every five days but they exert far more influence over the outcome of that game than any of the position players. Obviously the position players play almost every day so they influence the outcomes of more games, but over the course of a whole season I believe a 200 IP starting pitcher has more overall influence than any single everyday position player.
  6. sveumrules
    Come on Rogers. Lets get these next three outs for the career no hitter.
  7. sveumrules
    My Ballot Weeks YO PRINCE Braun Hart McGehee Axford
  8. sveumrules
    So if defense can't be reliably measured, should we just quit trying? Do you discount defense completely then when evaluating players? I don't think many people who use UZR are trying to hang their hat on anything because if they are smart enough to be quoting UZR then they are also likely smart enough to understand its limitations and are fully aware that it is neither absolute nor perfect. Metrics are evolutionary. We went from AVG to OPS to wOBA to determine who could hit the best over the course of time. As fielding is much more difficult to accurately quantify we've gone from Errors to UZR to ???. When ??? gets here and we have a more reliable model to evaluate defense that is freely disseminated over the web I'll be tickled pink, but until then I see no point in not using the best data currently available (especially if you know the limitations of that data from the outset).
  9. sveumrules
    What fielding metrics do you prefer? I think most people are aware of the shortcomings of UZR, but as far as I'm aware it's the best that's out there for free. Or I guess we could revert back to Fielding Percentage and the good old fashioned eye test. Hey I saw Corey Hart make a diving catch one time on the TV and he is generally regarded as being fast so he's a great RF!
  10. sveumrules
    Reynolds is currently sporting a pretty nifty 3TO of .544 (up from his paltry .518 in 2009) For comparisons sake Dunn is at .484 & Branyan is at .472 this year. Rob Deer career 3TO of .491 in serious jeopardy.
  11. sveumrules
    MLB lineups are just too much stronger and there is too much new technology to compare NOW to an era even as close as even the 70s. In the 70s, nobody had slugging 2B, SS, CF and pitchers threw 85% effort fastballs to the bottom halves of most lineups and really only dialed it up when they needed to. That to me is the main reason there were more CG and IP overall during that time.
  12. sveumrules
    All his good luck from his first year caught up with him in year two. They didn't give up anything to get Cliff Lee and got Smoak back for him. I don't want to go back through the whole thread, but did anyone anywhere predict Silva to be anything resembling a MLB pitcher this year? Speaking of predictions, though. I really don't think Ackley is gonna be all that great.
  13. sveumrules
    Here is a guy, generously listed at 270 who ran out pretty much every groundball he ever hit. For being a bona fide MLB slugger he really plays more like a career backup in lots of regards. I only wished I could have seen a huge Brewers/Cubs dustup with Big Z and the Prince at the center of it all. Best of luck in big market MLB. I hope you get super rich (~100%), win a ring (50/50?), and bring us some high ceiling arms (?????).
  14. sveumrules
    Looks like the Brewers were one of nine teams that watched Loux throw a bullpen today. Link
  15. sveumrules
    I stand corrected. I always thought you needed to EXCEED 130 AB, 50 IP, 45 days to be eligible for ROY. I didn't realize players with less than those totals were also eligible. Say the Mariners call up their stud Irish pitching prospect, Hype O'Thetical. He starts 5 games and throws a perfect game in each, striking out every batter. In the fifth game the Mariners can't score any runs for him (typical) so he has to pitch 13 innings in that contest. He ends the year 5-0 (irrelevant, I know) with 49 IP, 147 Ks and a -2.80 FIP. So he could win ROY and still be eligible the next year because he didn't exceed 50 IP or 45 days service time?
  16. sveumrules
    According to the fangraphs link only 414 men have ever accumulated 2000 or more career IP, and that includes all the old timers too. Guys named Hippo, Deacon, Mordecai, Stump and Noodles. I'd be curious if you filter out to post WWII how many there are. Garland isn't an ace by any means but he has consistently put up 2+ WAR for the last 7 years prior to this one. (Ok got me, there's a 1.8 & 1.9 in there) That puts him at league average or better every year. Fangraphs WAR is FIP based from what I understand so park/defense doesn't enter into their equation. If you want to say "Of the handful of pitchers durable and consistent enough to accumulate over 2000 career IPs during his lifetime, Garland was one of the worst" I can get behind that. But to say he is bad or one of the worst pitchers in baseball is a HUGE overstatement.
  17. sveumrules
    I know it's just semantics but if you aren't eligible for rookie of the year you aren't a rookie in my book. I would say this is Jeffress/Rogers first season and 2011 will (hopefully) be their rookie season.
  18. sveumrules
    Jeffress and Rogers will most likely not gain rookie eligibility until 2011 so I'll say Axford, Braddock, Cain.
  19. sveumrules
    If indeed the Brewers do need a new manager next year I really don't want another retread. I'd prefer we go the Maddon route and try to pluck a more or less unknown bench coach from a team with a long history of success. Maybe someone like Liddle from the Twins?
  20. sveumrules
    Or you can groove a fastball down the pipe and the batter just misses it and pops out to 2B. This is another aspect of LUCK that I find interesting. It seems like people have a longer memory/higher recognition of bad LUCK events as opposed to good LUCK events which are often forgotten shortly after they happen or never recognized as such in the first place. For instance, Counsell bloops a double down the LF line. Most people will attribute that to him being a gritty veteran battler who willed his way to a hit, when in most likelihood he just got LUCKY.
  21. sveumrules
    I would guess that neither of them fall (barring some type of unforeseen incident prior to the draft) to the Brewers at 12, though if they did I would certainly hope Mark A could find the requisite cash somewhere in his seat cushions to get it done.
  22. sveumrules
    Tulo has been great especially as of late, but I think his true talent level is a lot closer to Hardy than it is to Hanley. Lots of Coors in his triple slash.
  23. sveumrules
    Votto +2, Rolen +3.5, Bruce +2, Phillips +1, Hernandez +2, Cueto +1.5, Wood +2, Leake +1 That's 15 "wins" worth of WAR improvement from 2009 to 2010 from 8 players. Obviously some players (Dickerson, Harang) contributed less this year than last so that eats into the gains a little bit. The other big factor at play here, LUCK, isn't quite so easy to quantify unfortunately.
  24. sveumrules
    I'm just using the Padres as an example of how every year crazy stuff happens. Lots of people around here seem to be already writing off 2011 as a lost year and I guess I'd at least like to wait until May or June of next year to do that.
  25. sveumrules
    I still can't believe San Diego didn't move Gonzalez this offseason. I mean even my grandma could tell (as far back as september of last year!!!) that they wouldn't be competitive this year.
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