FanGraphs Top 45 is published today.
Haven't had a chance to fully dig in yet, but here's the System Overview...
The Brewers system is among the best in baseball thanks to their scouting in Latin America, and their ability to synergize the domestic draft with their player development processes. In the span of a few years, the Brewers have signed two superstar-level international talents in Jackson Chourio and Jesús Made. Even if things somehow go awry for Made, his bat speed is his bat speed, and his power is his power. The ability to identify and/or develop indomitable characteristics in just a couple of players can change the course of an entire franchise, and the mere chance that Milwaukee has done this twice in short succession is remarkable, and very bad news for the rest of the NL Central.
The Brewers, for the most part, do not put all of their eggs into one basket on the international front. There isn’t a $3.5 million player occupying the majority of their pool space. Instead, they tend to have multiple $1 million to $2 million players, and those players tend to have the heuristic qualities (switch-hitting infielders, shorter-levered players) that analytically inclined teams like the Rays and Guardians target, with slightly more physicality or projection than is typical for that player demographic. Casting a wider net in that market allows the Brewers to diversify their risk and field two rosters worth of players in the DSL. Homegrown players are so important to smaller market teams, and this gives Milwaukee more chances to find some.
The rate and speed at which the Brewers improve the pitchers they draft is among the best in the industry. There are so many generic college relievers on this list who have not only improved, but who have a shot to be big league starters. For a while, the Brewers hammered junior colleges, but the transfer portal has made those less dense with talent. Now they’re unearthing guys who had 8.00 ERAs at big schools and making them good during their first offseason. It’s not like other teams don’t scout Mississippi State; the Brewers aren’t turning over rocks in the Dakotas to find players, though they do scout the Midwest very well. Guys like Tyson Hardin and K.C. Hunt had all the resources of an SEC program, but their time in Starkville still didn’t make them especially good.
And the Brewers give themselves lots of chances to apply their player dev concepts to many players. They work out their bonus pool math in such a way that they maximize how many high school players they’re drafting, signing 15 of them (!) combined the last two drafts. High school players have more athletic projection, with more time and opportunity to develop than college players, and when you’re adding six or eight of them to your system every year, you’re adding the opportunity for homegrown ceiling to an org that needs it to tilt with the likes of the Dodgers and Phillies. It’s conceptually basic but difficult to execute. It takes your scouting staff properly gauging signability in a weird slice of the amateur market, namely high schoolers whose talent puts them in the $250,000 to $600,000 bonus range, and who are willing to sign for that. It’s such a specific tier of talent to care about, and the org has to have non-data intel on each of these individuals in order to execute the strategy.