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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I'd be pretty surprised if the Brewers landed the premier power bat on the market for three spare pieces. For the Brewers to win that bidding war I'd guess they'll need to include one of their excess SP with long term control and MLB success under their belt already (Henderson, Patrick, Myers, Gasser) plus a second piece better than any of CRod, Black or Cortez.
  2. sveumrules
    The Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB since Arnold took over in 2023 at 246 W - 180 L after today. Mediocrity would be more like the Red Sox 213 W - 214 L since 2023, the Giants 212 W - 214 L since 2023, the Reds 211 W - 215 L since 2023, the Cardinals 206 W - 220 L since 2023, etc. Mediocre teams don't get the chance to lose playoff games.
  3. sveumrules
    Ashby's pitched twice (the 19th and 21st) since returning from the paternity list.
  4. sveumrules
    Too bad. Missed a good one.
  5. sveumrules
    Terrible six through nine hitters at 4 for 10 with four RBI, three runs scored, two doubles, an HBP (& a partridge in a pear tree).
  6. sveumrules
    The Pirates aren't trading Skenes. If they did it wouldn't be in division for three mid rotation starters, a back end starter, and two bat only prospects that haven't hit in awhile. Any proposal that doesn't start with both Misio and Made just isn't a serious proposal. Same goes for Jose Ramirez.
  7. sveumrules
    Jesus MadeLuis PenaLogan HendersonCooper PrattJeferson QueroRobert GasserMarco DingesLuke AdamsAndrew FischerBraylon PayneColeman CrowTyson HardinBryce MeccageEthan DorchiesCraig YohoJosh KnothBishop LetsonJD ThompsonFrank CaironeJosh Adamczewski 21 to 25: Jadher, Wichro, Lara, Burke, Handelfry.
  8. sveumrules
    As long as he isn't talking about this Quintana...
  9. sveumrules
    All time age difference record...
  10. sveumrules
    Obviously only four games, but cool to see Jesus come back strong (6 for 13 with two doubles & three walks) after his week long break around the Futures Game.
  11. sveumrules
    Ortiz was originally drafted as a glove first player, the foundation of his profile was always that he had the glove for SS. Once he got a regular MLB chance shortstop was already taken, so he played third base where both DRS and FRV saw him as solidly above average to the tune of +8 runs. It's somewhat rare for the defensive metrics to be in lock step on their evaluation of an infielder though as we've seen this year with DRS pegging Ortiz for -6 runs while FRV says he has been +4 runs afield. That's a swing of a whole win in less than a full season, pretty extreme stuff. In the more frequent cases where the metrics arrive at different conclusions, I like to consider the player's history along with my own amateur eye test assessment. For Ortiz it seems like the -6 DRS from SS this year is the obvious outlier, so I tend to think that FRV is doing a better job of capturing his defensive value as a SS to this point.
  12. sveumrules
    Last two years... Otto 95 wRC+ | +3.4 BsR | +21.0 DEF | 4.7 WAR Ortiz 90 wRC+ | +0.8 BsR | +18.1 DEF | 3.8 WAR So Otto is pretty much Ortiz just with a slightly higher floor? Not sure that's worth dishing out Pratt plus for. Especially when the plus would probably have to be considerably better than the proposed Black, C-Rod, Hudson sweeteners. Also not sure how motivated the Marlins would be to deal Lopez in the first place. They've shown some signs of life over the last couple months going 31 W - 27 L. Might not seem like much, but if the Marlins can hold on for a winning record in July after posting a winning record in June it will be their first time with back to back winning months since they ran off three winning months in a row in 2017 when they still had Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna & Realmuto.
  13. sveumrules
    Brewers would need to go 40 W - 22 L to hit a hundo. Over their last 62 games they’ve gone 41 W - 21 L.
  14. sveumrules
    To the "can Joey Ortiz OPS 700" question from earlier in the thread... His seasonal triple slash was at 170/226/216 through 166 PA on May 21st. Over 165 PA since then (before today) his triple slash was at 260/315/420. He's been OPS-ing over 700 for the last two months. Of course that doesn't guarantee that he will keep OPS-ing over 700 from here on out, but he had an OPS of 726 last year, Steamer projects him for a 694 rest of season, ZiPS projects him for a 677 rest of season. Odds are he hits a lot closer to a 700 OPS rest of season than he does to the 442 OPS he posted to start it.
  15. sveumrules
    Demetrio Nadal homered again and Jorge Quintana went deep too with Cesar Espinal working a 4U3D (1 BB | 1 K) ninth to put the finishing touches on an 11-7 win.
  16. sveumrules
    Zona Crew up 6-2 after a six run fourth inning that went Luis Castillo double, Jorge Quintana single, Frederi Montero RBI single, Jadyn Fielder RBI single, Demetrio Nadal three run bomb, Roderick Flores solo shot. Miqueas Mercedes had a couple 95/96 MPH four seamers early on but has been working mostly 91-94 MPH four seamers and sinkers with an 81-84 MPh slider. He’s at 4 IP | 2 R | 4 H | 2 BB | 1 K with 64 pitches (39 strikes). Some batted ball highlights include a 108 MPH Frederi single, 107 MPH Castillo single, 107 & 105 MPH Handelfry lineouts, and 104 MPH Kevin Garcia lineout.
  17. sveumrules
    Robert Jr. has hit 215/283/364 (80 wRC+) over his last 744 PA. Who is that an upgrade over in our outfield? Perkins is at 236/320/340 (88 wRC+) over 612 PA for his career and doesn't cost $5.75M for the rest of the season, plus a $2M buyout on a $20M option, plus prospects. Rengifo is one of the worst defensive infielders in MLB... 2B (-6 DRS | -10 FRV) SS (-5 DRS | -9 FRV) 3B (-6 DRS | -14 FRV) ...where does he fit in the Brewers run prevention scheme?
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah, Skenes has 254 IP of 47 ERA- | 60 FIP- under his belt already. He's essentially been Mariano Rivera (career 49 ERA- | 62 FIP-) as a starter. Misio is electric no doubt, but he can't even match Skenes results over a sample 1/10th the size with 25 IP of 69 ERA- | 94 FIP- so far. He's been more like say Troy Percival (career 69 ERA- | 85 FIP-) as a starter.
  19. sveumrules
    FanGraphs started rolling out their annual Trade Value series today and three shortstops mentioned in this post - Jacob Wilson (#48), CJ Abrams (#47), and Zach Neto (#43) - all landed in close proximity on the first installment.
  20. sveumrules
    Before the season started FanGraphs Playoff Odds projected the Brewers for a .501 winning percentage. After 99 games posting a .596 winning percentage they have them projected for a .513 winning percentage rest of season. Over the eight completed full seasons in the FGPO database the Brewers beat their preseason win projection seven of eight years to the tune of an MLB best +71 wins. They’re on track for another double digit overage again in 2025. Crazy thing is even with as much hesitancy as FanGraphs is showing on buying in (& history tells us they are probably still selling the Brewers short), BPro’s PECOTA is waaay dubious projecting the Brewers for a .476 win percentage rest of season.
  21. sveumrules
    Bummer that Abner blew it, I guess all winning streaks must come to an end.
  22. sveumrules
    Okay, so William sits for a couple weeks, the Brewers pitchers lose momentum without him behind the plate, Haase hits even worse than Contreras has, and when he comes back there's no guarantee he returns to the hitter he was the last two years anyway. I'd imagine they've asked William his preference and he said he wants to play through it so they are playing him through it. If it becomes a detriment to the team maybe they tell him he doesn't have a choice and has to take a rest, but it hasn't become a detriment to the team yet.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, total waste of a year where we have the 3rd most wins in MLB and are 12 outs away from a season sweep of the Dodgers.
  24. sveumrules
    Yelich (71 wRC+) and Turang (80 wRC+) have both been below average versus lefties this year, would guess that's why Murphy picked today to give them the day off. Monasterio (100 wRC+) and Haase (97 wRC+) have closer to average career results versus southpaws.
  25. sveumrules
    There are 97 players with at least 150 PA as an outfielder so far this year. Isaac's 1.9 WAR is tied for spots 25 to 28 on that leaderboard with guys like Wyatt Langford (recent #4 overall pick), Lawrence Butler (recently signed a $65.5M contract extension), and TJ Friedl. Having a Top 30 outfielder as your fourth outfielder is a luxury not many teams have. Heck, having him as your third outfielder - Chourio (2.1 WAR | 21st) & Frelick (2.6 WAR | 14th) - is a luxury. If I counted right on that leaderboard there are ten teams that don't have even one outfielder having as good a season as Collins is having.
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