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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    DSL Blue wins 9-1. Diustin Mayorquin followed Duran with five innings of 1 R | 4 H | 1 HBP | 3 K work before Jhosep Ospino struck out the side in the ninth, now up to 11 IP | 12 K without an ER for Jhosep. Johanderson Tarazona stayed hot with his first HR of the year (plus a single, walk, stolen bag & two RBI), Leonard Rijo chipped in two singles, a walk and two stolen bags while Jefer Lista & Moises Polanco each doubled (with Jefer also adding a walk and stolen base).
  2. sveumrules
    Coleman Crow was the return for Taylor/Houser to the Mets. First year back from TJ and has 43 IP of 2.51 ERA with 52 K / 8 BB under his belt so far at Biloxi. His 2.07 FIP is 5th lowest of 712 pitchers with at least 40 IP in the minors this year. Making his Nashville debut tonight.
  3. sveumrules
    Since Arnold took over in 2023 the Brewers have the third most wins in baseball. Here’s some things they’ve been the very best at… Limiting Runs (89 ERA-) Limiting Hits (94 AVG+) Stranding Runners (105 LOB+) Outs Above Average (91 OAA) ERA-FIP Gap (-0.45 runs) Bullpen Leverage (+25.79 WPA) Base Running (+37.5 BsR) Rookie Position Players (13.7 WAR) Rookies Combined (22.1 WAR) That two weeks of lousy play in May were enough to spark this thread really speaks to how good of a job Arnold has done since taking the reins. Sure, it would be nice to still have Shane Smith in the system, but since April 1st the Brewers rotation has a 79 ERA- (1st), +5.73 WPA (3rd), and 10.3 rWAR (4th) so they’ve been quite alright without him. Complaints about the returns on Williams / Burnes (4.0 combined WAR) are starting to fall victim to math as well with Ortiz, Durbin, Hall and Cortes already at 4.4 WAR with like 15 years of team control remaining.
  4. sveumrules
    Ortiz bottomed out with a .432 OPS through his first 141 PAs this year. Over his last 148 PA prior to today (cool grand slam) he had a .701 OPS. Last year over 511 PA Ortiz hit for a .726 OPS. Some might call it cherry picking, others might call it regressing to the mean. Unless one believes Ortiz is a true talent .432 OPS hitter. The various publicly available projection systems see him as something like a .658 to .694 OPS hitter rest of season, much closer to his recent level of production than his whole season .569 OPS.
  5. sveumrules
    Good observation. KC affiliate has 35 sac bunts, BAL affiliate has 26, then a big drop off down to the TB affiliate in 3rd with 12. Howzit workin? KC affiliate has 330 R (8th of 12 teams), BAL affiliate has 299 R (11th). On the flip side, Mudcats are the only team in the league with zero sac bunts all year and their 400 R are two dozen ahead of 2nd place.
  6. sveumrules
    Third base has been in a little bit of a slump leaguewide the last few years. In order, from 2012-19 the hot corner hit 105, 103, 101, 106, 107, 103, 106, and 107 wRC+. This is what most people think of when they think of a "third baseman". They kept it up for a couple years after the pandemic with a 100 and 105 wRC+ in 2021 and 2022. Last three years though? 96 wRC+ in 2023, 97 wRC+ in 2024, and a 99 wRC+ so far in 2025.
  7. sveumrules
    29 career bases loaded plate appearances and Joey has two singles, two sac flies, and three walks. Today was his second double play. Definitely not very good (but yeah, we’ll let it slide for today with the HR and nice plays in the field)
  8. sveumrules
    Looks like Frelick to leadoff was June 12th, since then the Brewers have a 136 wRC+ (2nd) and 90 R (1st) with a 10 W - 3 L record so it’s definitely been working (even if its ultimately unsustainable long term) Hoskins (50 PA of 79 wRC+) has been the only bad regular during the stretch, Chourio has been more frustrating (61 PA of 104 wRC+) than bad, but after that the regulars are at… Contreras (55 PA of 116 wRC+), Ortiz (49 PA of 123 wRC+), Frelick (62 PA of 127 wRC+), Turang (55 PA of 151 wRC+), Durbin (52 PA of 167 wRC+), Collins (50 PA of 178 wRC+), and Yelich (57 PA of 193 wRC+). Pretty fun couple weeks either way.
  9. sveumrules
    Megill (27 IP) 63 ERA- | 66 FIP- | +0.30 WPA Anderson (40 IP) 76 ERA- | 96 FIP- | +0.33 WPA Uribe (39 IP) 51 ERA- | 74 FIP- | +0.58 WPA Mears (33 IP) 53 ERA- | 62 FIP- | +0.64 WPA Koenig (33 IP) 105 ERA- | 86 FIP- | +0.57 WPA Ashby (15 IP) 28 ERA- | 55 FIP- | +0.32 WPA Hall (14 IP) 75 ERA- | 109 FIP- | +0.19 WPA Rob Z (13 IP) 49 ERA- | 103 FIP- | +0.37 WPA Yeah, so that’s eight of eight with positive win probability added, seven of eight with better than average run prevention and six of eight with better than average peripherals. Maybe start giving Ashby the lefty leverage innings Koenig has gotten all year and give Jared some lower leverage spots with his recent struggles, but other than that hard for me to complain too much about the current pen group.
  10. sveumrules
    DSL Blue prevails 8-4. Yoneiker Lugo (double, walk), Angel Gonzalez (double, single, steal), Moises Polanco (three singles, two steals, walk), Frandy Lafond (two singles, walk), Joan Gutierrez (single, two walks, steal), Leonard Rijo (two walks, steal), and Jefer Lista (single, HBP) gave them purt near a whole lineup of multiple reachers. Jean Rodriguez had the “cleanest” pitching line with 3 IP | 1 R | 0 H | 3 BB | 2 HBP | 2 K…look ma, no hits!! (couple batters notwithstanding)
  11. sveumrules
    DSL Gold loses 9-2 in what appears to have been a rain shortened six inning affair. Kenny Fenelon (walk, RBI single), Francis Sosa (walk, single, two steals), and Cristian Montilla (walk, single) earned the coveted BF Minor League Game Thread shout outs.
  12. sveumrules
    Kind of interesting feature on the FanGraphs leaderboards where you can select Active Roster instead of the default obviously being everybody who has been on the team at any point all year. For instance… Full Season Hitting 97 wRC+ (17th) | 389 R (7th) | 11.2 WAR (13th) Active Roster Hitting 102 wRC+ (18th) | 370 R (4th) | 11.8 WAR (10th) [everything slides up a notch with just 181 PA of Mitchell, Capra, Dunn and Drew Avans removed from the equation. Pretty crazy they only scored 19 runs combined but I guess when you’re never on base] Full Season Pitching 94 ERA- (13th) | 99 FIP- (16th) | 10.4 rWAR (10th) Active Roster Pitching 74 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (7th) | 12.8 rWAR (3rd) [lot bigger difference on the pitching side with the jump in Active Roster numbers illustrating just how solid the current thirteen guys have been aside from the inevitable blip here or there]
  13. sveumrules
    He’s played a handful of 2B too, seven starts on the dirt versus seventeen in the grass. Not a perfect comp, but the guy I’ve kinda had in my head as a physical point of reference since we signed Fielder is Willie Calhoun who was a Top 100 guy with the Dodgers/Rangers circa 2017/18. Fielder’s not quite as short as Calhoun, but they’re both in that stocky LF/borderline 2B sort of bucket. Willie was also more of a high average/low K guy in the low minors where Jadyn has been more 3TO. Looking through recent-ish stateside complex hitters similar to Jadyn’s 267/432/475 (145 wRC+) 17.4 BB% | 24.2 K% line maybe gives a couple more cloudy crystal balls… 2022 Carlos Jorge (5’9” 160 2B/OF) hit 261/409/525 (146 wRC+) 16.2 BB% | 26.2 K%. Little more power, not quite as many walks and lower listed weight, but pretty close. Was also two years younger. Currently on second go around in A+. 2021 Edgar Quero (5’10 200 C) hit 253/440/505 (148 wRC+). Two years younger again and playing at the top of the defensive spectrum instead of teetering near the bottom. Jadyn will need to hit like Edgar did (131 wRC+ in the minors post-2021) to keep moving up. Going back to the pre-Covid rookie leagues found one more that’s pretty close, 2016 Khalil Lee (5’10 170 OF) hit 269/396/484 (144 wRC+) 14.9 BB% | 25.7 K%. Again two years younger and was playing some CF so starting from a higher athletic floor. Continued to hit (127 wRC+ from 2017-21) and got a couple cups of MLB coffee.
  14. sveumrules
    Bravo couldn’t hold the lead bottom seven, but limited the damage to one run to keep things tied at three each. Jorge Quintana walked to lead off the eighth, went to third on a Demetrio Nadal double, then a Jadyn Fielder HBP loaded the bases for Kevin Ereu. The same Kevin Ereu with ten singles, one double, one home run and 37 strikeouts in 125 plate appearances. But, no matter. Not only did Ereu walk for the 22nd time, the pitcher uncorked a wild pitch in doing so allowing two runs to score for a 5-3 ACL Crew lead.
  15. sveumrules
    Mercado retired the first two batters of the sixth before Ayendy Bravo came on for the third out. Kevin Garcia single (wild pitch) and an Engel Paulino single put runners on the corners for an RBI groundout from Handelfry to give the Zona Crew a 3-2 advantage top seven.
  16. sveumrules
    Zona Crew tied up at two top six. Demetrio Nadal walked, went to second on a wild pitch, stole third then scored on a Kevin Ereu groundout. Kevin Garcia followed with a two out single before Engel Paulino tripled him home. Enderson Mercado has gone 5 IP | 2 R | 5 H | 1 BB | 7 K so far.
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like he caught eight of his first ten games in Nashville, last game behind the dish on June 18 before DHing for his last six games now. Went back to the GameDay for the 18th to see if maybe he was HBP or something but the only bread crumb was he came out in the 7th inning when the game resumed following a rain delay.
  18. sveumrules
    NL Rookie WAR Leaders (position players) Baldwin ATL (2.0) Collins MIL (1.4) Kim LAD (1.0) Hicks MIA (0.8) Durbin MIL (0.6) NL Rookie rWAR Leaders (pitchers) Patrick MIL (1.9) Lord WAS (1.0) Henderson MIL (1.0) Casparius LAD (1.0) Misio MIL (0.9) Pretty good stuff from Brewers rookies this year. But it’s not just this year. Going back to Arnold’s first year at the helm in 2023, Brewers rookie position players have put up 12.5 WAR, best in MLB. Brewers rookie pitchers have posted 8.9 rWAR since 2023, fourth in MLB.
  19. sveumrules
    FanGraphs uses FIP for their default pitcher WAR and Freeland has been much better in that regard with a 3.63 FIP entering today. BRef (-0.1 WAR) and FanGraphs runs allowed WAR (-0.2 rWAR) are more representative of that 5.13 ERA which is around 10% worse than average after accounting for Coors.
  20. sveumrules
    Sure, that would be a true but so far this year Bohm has a .280 average and .319 on base percentage. Durbin only has a .236 average, but since he will take a walk his .318 on base percentage is right in line with Bohm's. Since they reach base at around the same clip, then it comes down to if Bohm's not that great power (96 ISO+ is below MLB average) and extra $7M in salary is more valuable than Durbin's speed and defense.
  21. sveumrules
    Burke (#20 on latest BF Top 20) and Areinamo (unranked) are nice prospects, but I think catcher Marco Dinges (#9 on latest BF Top 20) has passed them up in the estimation of most of the farm watchers.
  22. sveumrules
    Bohm would offer more power than Durbin, sure, but he is still below average overall with a 96 ISO+ since 2023 which ranks 117th out of 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA over that stretch. Despite his imposing stature Alec is more of a singles/doubles hitter with a 112 AVG+ that ranks 33rd out of those same 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA since 2023. His 262 singles over that stretch are tied for 13th, his 86 doubles are 10th, his 42 home runs are only 92nd.
  23. sveumrules
    Rumors were the Phillies asked for Mason Miller from the A's, or one of George Kirby/Logan Gilbert from the Mariners. If those were indeed their asks, Bohm was never realistically available. His -49 DRS at 3B is also the worst of the 2020's (Devers is 2nd worst at -41 DRS), so I'd guess that precludes him from consideration for the Brewers too. Especially considering his bat is more good (108 wRC+ from 2023-25) than anything special or difference making.
  24. sveumrules
    At home, yes, Freeland has a 7.11 ERA | 4.05 FIP. Get him down at sea level and he has a much better 3.64 ERA | 3.31 FIP.
  25. sveumrules
    Love to see it. Fun coincidence that Tobias has 1 walk out of 137 batters faced so far and 1/137 is apparently known as the Fine-Structure Constant in physics, quantifying the strength of electromagnetic interaction between elementary charged particles....so he's got that going for him.
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