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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    No worries, I thought maybe there was some newfandangled third WAR out there I didn’t know about. Pretty sure BPro has their own version too based on their “deserved” stats, but I’ve never dabbled much there.
  2. sveumrules
    Where are you seeing -0.7 WAR? I’ve got -0.4 on BRef and 0.1 on FanGraphs? Either way, Arby is a little more old school and tends to put more weight on the baseball card stats. Like Vaughn put up 0.2 WAR on BRef and -0.1 on FanGraphs last year but still got almost $6M in Arby because he had a more respectable 19 HR | 70 RBI.
  3. sveumrules
    Seeing as this is the Optimism Thread I’d have to say somewhere around 100%.
  4. sveumrules
    Another pretty big difference is that Priester has a 57.8% ground ball rate (5th among 88 pitchers min. 100 IP this year). Lauer was more of a fly ball pitcher with a 41.4% fly ball rate that ranked 31st of 129 pitchers with at least 100 IP in 2021. Eric only induced ground balls at a 35.8% clip that ranked 107th. Younger righty ground ball specialist vs older lefty fly ball guy, sounds like the only thing they really have in common is being Brewers pitchers acquired via trade.
  5. sveumrules
    Jose Quintana versus Spencer Strider has got to be one of the better "different ways to the same spot" pitching match ups you could get. Both are among 83 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2022, here are some of their rankings... Strider (405 IP | 81st) 159 K+ (1st) | 100 BB+ (64th) | 78 HR+ (14th) 83 AVG+ (2nd) | 84 WHIP+ (7th) | 101 LOB+ (48th) 68 FIP- (2nd) | 83 ERA- (16th) 11.4 fWAR (16th) | 8.9 rWAR (39th) Quintana (499 IP | 44th) 84 K+ (69th) | 97 BB+ (59th) | 75 HR+ (13th) 100 AVG+ (39th) | 98 WHIP+ (47th) | 105 LOB+ (14th) 97 FIP- (47th) | 84 ERA- (17th) 7.0 fWAR (48th) | 10.1 rWAR (32nd) So Strider strikes out more batters than anyone, and is the second hardest to get a hit off of, yet his run prevention is barely better than Quintana who is pretty much average or below at everything across the board except limiting home runs and stranding base runners. Believe this largely a function of Strider being so much worse out of the stretch versus the wind up. Couldn't find specific splits, but for his career he's allowed an OPS 111 points higher with runners on versus bases empty. League average this year is an OPS 29 points higher with runners on versus bases empty. For Quintana's career he's allowed an OPS one point higher with runners on versus bases empty. Put it all together and of the 83 pitchers with at least 400 IP on that 2022-now leaderboard Quintana's -0.52 gap between his ERA and FIP is tied for the best right way differential while Strider's +0.74 gap is the largest in the wrong direction.
  6. sveumrules
    Would you consider Ortiz, Hall and Durbin quality players? We aren’t getting much more in a hypothetical Peralta trade than we did in the actual Burnes / Williams deals.
  7. sveumrules
    Even if Peralta is traded in the offseason all of Priester, Misio, Henderson, Patrick, Myers, and Gasser would be ahead of Rodriguez in the pecking order. Coleman Crow should get added to the 40 Man this offseason too. Given how much the Brewers emphasize depth I’d imagine at least one (or maybe even both) of Peralta / Woodruff will be back next year depending how things shake out twixt now & then.
  8. sveumrules
    I'm pulling from FanGraphs. Ortiz has negative WAR this year at BRef because they use Defensive Runs Saved as their fielding input and DRS says Joey has been a -3 defender at SS. Ortiz has positive WAR this year at FanGraphs because they use StatCast's Fielding Run Value as their fielding input and FRV says Joey has been a +5 defender at SS. From watching the games which system do you believe is doing a better job of capturing Joey's defensive value?
  9. sveumrules
    Burnes put up 4.6 rWAR in his lone Baltimore season. Ortiz is up to 3.9 WAR and Hall is at 0.5 rWAR so far with the Brewers. They have already almost equaled Burnes production with another eight years of combined team control remaining. Shedding Burnes salary was also probably needed to accommodate Hoskins on the payroll last year.
  10. sveumrules
    The Brewers were 2.5 games behind the Cubs going into play of July 2nd when Seigler made his first start at 3B. His play hasn't cost the team anything. They are 8 W - 1 L with a +47 run differential in his nine games started at 3B.
  11. sveumrules
    A 3.23 FIP is still perfectly fine and shakes out to a 76 FIP-, but its also a big step back from the 2.24 FIP | 53 FIP- that Devin posted from 2020-24 with the Brewers.
  12. sveumrules
    With everyone theoretically healthy 12 of the position players will likely be Contreras, Jansen, Vaughn, Hoskins, Turang, Ortiz, Durbin, Yelich, Collins, Chourio, Frelick and Perkins. Would imagine Monasterio has the edge over Seigler for the 13th spot in that scenario since he is SS capable. Then in September it would come down to Seigler vs Lockridge for the 14th spot (again, assuming health from all parties).
  13. sveumrules
    Collins 2024 Nash (500 PA) 273/386/475 (128 wRC+) 14.2 BB% | 19.2 K% Collins (first 46 MLB PA) 163/217/233 (27 wRC+) 6.5 BB% | 34.8 K% Collins (last 267 MLB PA) 291/400/430 (140 wRC+) 13.9 BB% | 22.5 K% Durbin 24-25 AAA (433 PA) 286/386/473 (127 wRC+) 11.5 BB% | 9.7 K% Durbin (first 117 MLB PA) 186/270/255 (53 wRC+) 4.3 BB% | 8.5 K% Durbin (last 204 MLB PA) 313/392/443 (139 wRC+) 8.3 BB% | 9.8 K% Seigler 2025 Nash (267 PA) 277/416/465 (141 wRC+) 18.4 BB% | 19.1 K% Seigler (first MLB 38 PA) 176/230/176 (20 wRC+) 5.3 BB% | 13.2 K% Seigler was better in AAA than both of Collins and Durbin, albeit in a smaller sample. Both Collins and Durbin have kicked out a couple hundred PA of very capable MLB production after getting off to ugly starts. I'm willing to afford Seigler that same luxury to see if we can unearth another one. Dicing up already small samples into even smaller ones doesn't necessarily get us anywhere, but something else interesting to note is that Seigler is 0 for 10 as a pinch hitter/DH with a 0.0 BB% | 30.0 K%. When he is playing 3B he has hit 250/321/250 (68 wRC+) with a 7.1 BB% | 7.1 K% over 28 PA. Still no great shakes, but far more encouraging than his overall season line (and better than Collins and Durbin to start their MLB careers).
  14. sveumrules
    Believe he’ll hit Arby before 2028 then free agency before 2031.
  15. sveumrules
    There’s been a little bit of a World Series curse of late for a few orgs… Giants (won WS 2010/12/14) have gone 817 W - 813 L since 2015 with just two winning / playoff seasons. currently on the outside looking in of the NL Wild Card race. Royals (won WS 2015) have won 641 games since, second fewest above only CHW (632) and a just behind COL (642), MIA (644), PIT (646). Made the playoffs last year mostly by going 12 W - 1 L vs White Sox. Are 56 W - 56 L this year. Cubs (won WS 2016) made postseason again in 2017 and 2018 (& 2020) but went 429 W - 441 L from 2019-24 without a full season playoff trip, should get in this year. Red Sox (won WS 2013/18) went 437 W - 434 L from 2019-24 with only one playoff trip. Currently #1 ALWC. Nationals (won WS 2019) 425 wins in the 2020s is bottom half dozen along with MIA (425), CHW (425), KCR (423), PIT (411), and COL (389). Braves (won WS 2021) lost in DS twice and WC once with a 2 W - 8 L postseason record from 2022-24. Fourth in NLE this year. Rangers (won WS 2023) hungover to the tune of 78 W - 84 L last year. Currently #7 in the AL seeding. Astros (two* WS wins in nine bites since 2015) & Dodgers (two* WS wins in twelve bites since 2013) are definitely the outliers when it comes to winning the WS and staying competitive year in year out over long stretches.
  16. sveumrules
    Good stuff here. Obviously some small samples going on as you noted, but that’s kind of the nature of the beast when looking at such narrow parameters. Either way, definitely encouraging to see the arrow has been pointing in the right direction.
  17. sveumrules
    Giants were 41 W - 31 L when they traded for Devers. FanGraphs gave them 65.0% playoff odds at that point. Giants have gone 15 W - 25 L since trading for Devers. FanGraphs gives them 8.1% playoff odds at this point. Red Sox were 38 W - 36 L when they traded Devers away. FanGraphs gave them 34.7% playoff odds at that point. Red Sox have gone 24 W - 15 L since trading Devers away. FanGraphs gives them 76.8% playoff odds at this point.
  18. sveumrules
    Wiemer hit 287/368/520 (134 wRC+) with a 12.1 BB% | 19.5 K% over 174 PA at Nashville in 2022. Over 670 PA since then at AAA he has hit 201/318/310 (71 wRC+) with a 13.4 BB% | 26.9 K%. That 71 wRC+ ranks 283rd of 292 AAA hitters with at least 600 PA since 2023.
  19. sveumrules
    Speaking of the White Sox. Last year they had the worst record in over 50 years, but were not eligible for the draft lottery with the new stipulations so they picked 10th this year. Now this year the Rockies could end up in the same neighborhood as the White Sox last year, but they too are not eligible for the draft lottery so will pick not higher than 10th either. The Nationals currently have the 3rd worst record in MLB, but are also not eligible for the lottery so will likely end up with pick #11. White Sox are once again eligible after missing out last year so they should end up with top odds for the #1 pick next year.
  20. sveumrules
    here’s some lunchables for now kid, pitch good and we’ll stop at Dairy Queen on the way home
  21. sveumrules
    Durbin had three PA today, Seigler had two.
  22. sveumrules
    Caleb Durbin now up to ten PAs as a substitute this year. He has five walks, two singles, a hit by pitch and a sac fly.
  23. sveumrules
    Right, which is a perfect example why getting bent out of shape about batting orders before games is pointless…especially with this year’s team.
  24. sveumrules
    Today is Seigler’s seventh start at 3B this year, results of those first six games were… 0702 at NYM (W) 7 to 2 0702 at NYM (L) 3 to 7 0713 vs WAS (W) 8 to 1 0721 at SEA (W) 6 to 0 0723 at SEA (W) 10 to 2 0729 vs CHI (W) 9 to 3 So, 5 W - 1 L with a +28 run differential before today.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, that 96 MPH comeback sinker that burned off the outside corner to get House looking and end the inning was pretty much vintage Woody.
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