sveumrules

Gleyber Torres is a Tiger for one year at $15M. His 113 wRC+ is 8th among primary second basemen over the last three years, but his -8.0 BsR is dead last while his glove has never been any good either with -14 DRS | -18 FRV for his career at 2B. On the one hand it’s kind of crazy the 2nd youngest FA on the market could only get one year, but on the other hand when you’re a second baseman who already can’t run or field at age 27 it doesn’t really bode well for the future either.

For being a guy that came up pretty much fastball only, Freddy has done a really nice job of diversifying his arsenal over the years. Among 95 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2021 his run values are at four seam (+38.5 | 10th), slider (+10.6 | 28th), curve (+12.4 | 13th), and change up (+5.1 | 19th). Just to throw some other rankings out there for Freddy since there was a lot of talk this year about if he was a number this or number that, among those same 95 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2021… 561 IP (40th) | 133 K%+ (3rd) | 105 BB%+ (85th) | 98 HR9+ (49th) | 82 AVG+ (2nd) | 84 WHIP+ (12th) | 83 ERA- (25th) | 86 FIP- (30th) | 12.7 rWAR (23rd) | 11.3 fWAR (22nd) Circling back to run value, couldn’t help but notice Nestor Cortes one spot below Freddy in the four seam rankings at +36.1 runs. Cortes cutter (+25.7) came in 3rd one spot below Civale in 2nd at +32.7. Of course Burnes laps the field a few times over in cutter value at +97.6 runs since 2021.

That 15 sack spread between Williams (67) and Stroud (52) is also four more times than Love has been sacked all year with only 11 so far.

Black was hitting 3rd because Yelich was hurt and Murph likes to alternate L/R. It was either Black, Turang, Frelick, Bauers or Perkins who was going to be hitting 3rd in those six whole games that Black started in the three hole (with the Brewers going 4 W - 2 L in those games.)

Ben Clemens looked into this a little bit ago at FanGraphs. Long story short, 95th percentile exit velocity is thee stickiest offensive measurement year to year with only 3.9% of the player pool showing an improvement of at least one standard deviation. Contact Rate was next stickiest at 7.3%. I think the main thing Sal needs to work on is his launch angle. The guy I feel like was always the realistic ceiling comp for him coming up was Steven Kwan. Kwan doesn’t hit the ball hard and has low barrel rates just like Sal, but he’s managed a 12.2 average launch angle and 24.1% line drive rate to get to a 117 career wRC+. Meanwhile Sal’s had a 9.3 average launch angle and 17.9% line drive rate to get to his 88 career wRC+.

Mitchell has a chance to improve because he has some pop and extra base hits drive in more runs than singles. Someone like Frelick's ceiling as a run producer is limited by all the weak contact though. Ichiro is one of my favorite players ever, but out of 138 players to have come up with at least 5,000 runners on base over the last 50 years he ranks 137th with a 12.60 RBI%.

Adames batted 6th zero times last year. He had 13 PAs batting 2nd, 86 PAs batting 3rd, 441 PAs batting 4th, and 148 PAs batting 5th. His 16.74 RBI% was 4th on the team behind Contreras (17.88%), Chourio (17.79%) and Yelich (17.03%). There was a significant drop off from there to returning guys like Hoskins (15.47%), Ortiz (15.41%), Turang (14.45%), Perkins (12.89%), Frelick (10.34%), and Mitchell (9.15%). Adding another middle of the order bat capable of driving in runs will go a long way if the Brewers want to maintain or build on their 6th place finish in runs scored last season.

So the Brewers don't actually have the conditional picks I wasn't aware of them having, and in order to get them they will need both of Civale and Hoskins to decline a QO of around $22M? I'd say the odds of that happening are around the same as the odds of the Brewers giving guys like Colin Rea or Adrian Houser multiyear extensions.

Garcia was on a whole different level peripherally from Peguero last year. Ranks are among 160 relievers with at least 50 IP in 2024.., Peguero 92 K%+ (125th) | 146 BB%+ (141st) 99 FIP- (108th) | 4.12 SIERA (134th) Garcia 133 K%+ (27th) | 78 BB%+ (35th) 59 FIP- (10th) | 2.71 SIERA (19th) Lowe is gonna cost something like $25M for his last two years of control, unless TEX installs Garcia as closer (which they might with those periphs and all the red on his StatCast page) he likely won’t make that much for his five years of remaining control.

Goldy just signed with NYY, so cross him off. Profar is looking for something like 3/50 which I’d guess the Brewers believe is a little rich for a poor defensive LF with one outlier hitting season on the back of his baseball card.

From 1987-92 Paul Molitor hit 319/390/476 (139 wRC+). Only Witt, Vlad and Judge topped a .319 average this past season among qualified hitters. A 139 wRC+ was a Top 15 qualified hitter last year. I’ll take the under.

Would all depend on the medicals and how much of a discount the Blue Jays are willing to accept after a lost season from Bichette in 2024. 073123: Patellar Tendonitis 082723: Strained Quad 061424: Strained Calf 071924: Strained Calf 091724: Fractured Finger Obviously the finger was a fluke thing, but that's a lot of lower body stuff the last couple years.

Giannis isn't trading Khris.

Brewers were tied for the 7th most HR allowed last year (195) but only gave up the 4th fewest runs (641). While they struggled preventing the long ball they allowed the fewest doubles in MLB (203), the 4th lowest BABIP (.277), and stranded runners at an MLB best 76.7% clip. Clicking around BRef it looks like 312 of the 641 runs (48.7%) the Brewers surrendered last year were the result of a home run compared to an MLB average of 44.2% of runs being scored via home run.

Baseball Musings RBI percentage page has 255 players that came to bat with at least 200 runners on base this year. Bauers 13.78 RBI% ranked 139th so he wasn't really cashing in base runners at any extraordinary rate.

Ratings for TV sports (and TV in general) are down across the board over the timeframe cited in the article. NBA set attendance and revenue records again last season even if fewer and fewer people are paying for cable nowadays.

158 career MLB innings with a 5.57 ERA and 5.68 FIP but a 4.37 xFIP which means the model thinks his home run rate has been flukily high. Nothing too special at AAA this past year with 76 IP of 4.34 ERA and 4.10 FIP. His last time in MLB (13 innings in 2023) he put up a non-descript 4.73 ERA and 4.53 FIP, but his 3.61 xERA and 3.34 xFIP again implied he was possibly the victim of some bad luck in there. Steamer really likes him with a 3.76 ERA projection for 2025, looks like the Brewers computers and scouts were similarly intrigued.

The only thing Attanasio would sell for $2 at the stadium is a cup of his neighbors sand.

If you scroll down past the Last 30 Games split it lists only 18 career games.

Yeah, just plug him into the Bauers role and give him 350-400 PAs against MLB pitching. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with a batting line something like Joey Ortiz last year - 240/330/400 or so. That was good for a 104 wRC+ last year. With his overly patient approach I think leaving him in AAA any longer would be a detriment. If he struggles either of Mike Boeve or Ernesto Martinez Jr. should be just a plane ride away.

Black only played 18 games at the MLB level. He homered in each of his last two games in AAA on September 21st/22nd to close the season.

OKC are a best in the West 20 W - 5 L. Their +12.1 netRtg is tops in the Association. They were on a five game win streak and had won nine of their last ten. No matter, your 2024 Emirates Cup Champions are the old washed up Doc Rivers coached Milwaukee Bucks.

Interesting ideas @wallus Castro had an 85 wRC+ over his first 1,082 PAs with DET but has kicked it into a new gear with a 108 wRC+ over his last 1,044 PAs since joining MIN. Steamer isn’t really buying it though with a 99 wRC+ projection for next year and looking at his StatCast page I can kinda see why. Has played 4.000 combined innings at OF/SS/2B with bad DRS (-36) and middling FRV (+1). Only has 458 innings at 3B with +1 DRS | +2 FRV. Is a switch hitter, but has pretty pronounced splits with an 87 wRC+ vs LHP | 116 wRC+ vs RHP since finding his stroke with the Twins. Could maybe be something there if the Brewers think he’s a viable 3B defender and buy into his new hitting results more than the publicly available projections do. Schmitt has posted nice small sample marks at 3B with +3 DRS | +2 FRV in 295 innings, but the metrics haven’t been a fan of his work at SS/2B with -7 DRS | -6 FRV in 432 combined innings. Hasn’t really hit at all in AAA (95 wRC+ over 568 PAs) or MLB (73 wRC+ over 390 PAs with just a 4.4 BB%) though. Steamer (89 wRC+) and ZiPS (93 OPS+) think better days are ahead, but barring some kind of breakthrough or swing change his offensive game seems pretty limited. Pass. Luzardo would all depend on the medicals. If the Brewers staff think he’s got another 279 IP of 80 ERA- | 80 FIP- in him like he racked up from 2022-23, I’d trust their judgement. Would guess the Marlins will want players with zero service time coming back though since they aren’t realistically lined up to compete soon,

If he was expected to start every day in the majors I'd agree, but right now it looks like he's more slotted to fight it out and earn playing time as part of a timeshare so that has to knock him down a little. Believe MLB dropped him in at #15 on their Brewers Top 30 for whatever that is or isn't worth. Longenhangen gave him a 40 FV at FanGraphs. Their Brewers list will be getting updated this offseason, but that is in the same tier that starts with Bitonti at #14, CarRod at #15, Pena at #18, Meccage at #19 in the last update.

I'd probably slot him in at #19 between two other diminutive Brewers prospects. Big believer in Luis Pena's upside at #18 even though he is on the opposite end of the proximity scale so can't put Caleb ahead of him. Love Luis Lara's defense in CF and he has plenty of time to figure out the rest, but Durbin is just on a whole different level as a hitter and on the cusp of MLB.