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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The funny thing about Lux is he has kind of come around full circle. When originally drafted he was seen as a high floor, low ceiling hit/field/run guy whose future value was mostly tied up in whether he'd have the chops to stay at shortstop or not. Then he had the power breakout from 2018-19 that vaulted him into consensus Top 5 prospect territory. But it turned out that power breakout was a mirage and he isn't an MLB calibre SS, so he's back to being in that high floor low ceiling range as a strong side platoon 2B that is just kind of okay at everything. Seems like the best realistic case scenario is the Reds get two years of pre-injury 2022 Gavin when he went 113 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR. Best case sorta crazy scenario would be GABP unlocks him and he goes all Scooter Gennett and puts up a couple 125 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR kind of seasons? If they get two years of around the 2024 Lux that went 100 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR, while also failing to make the playoffs (or at least being competitive into September for the first time in a decade & counting), then yeah, they'd probably have been better off keeping the prospect and pick.
  2. sveumrules
    Lux return was Mike Sirota (2024 3rd round speed/contact CF from Northeastern) and the 37th pick in the 2025 draft, so Dodgers pretty much picking up two assets with long runways before 40 Man consideration. Dodgers also drafted Sirota in the 16th round of the 2021 draft out of a CT high school and he didn’t sign so they’ve been on him for awhile.
  3. sveumrules
    Projecting Yoho for a 3.76 ERA which is a scooch better than the likes of Peguero (3.81), Mears (3.86) and Bukauskas (3.86) is pretty cool. Then seeing KC Hunt next on the list with a 3.87 ERA projection just ahead of guys like Koenig (3.92), Gasser (3.97) and Myers (4.02) is pretty cool too.
  4. sveumrules
    Brewers SP were 25th in FIP based WAR last year, but their 4.09 ERA greatly outpaced their 4.52 FIP. That -0.43 differential was the largest gap among all SP groups elevating the Brewers rotation to 18th in runs allowed based WAR. Given the Brewers emphasis on run prevention and consistently getting their pitchers to outperform their peripherals (-0.51 ERA/FIP is the best in MLB the last two years, -0.25 is 3rd going back to 2016) I’m not sure FIP does the best job of capturing the value they provide. As much as Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta got the lions share of the credit during this recent run it was really only in 2021 that we got a truly dominant performance out of the rotation… 2018 11.2 rWAR (15th) | 8.3 fWAR (20th) 2019 9.9 rWAR (16th) | 8.5 fWAR (20th) 2021 22.3 rWAR (2nd) | 20.3 fWAR (2nd) 2022 12.9 rWAR (14th) | 12.5 fWAR (13th) 2023 15.6 rWAR (4th) | 11.2 fWAR (12th) 2024 10.9 rWAR (18th) | 7.3 fWAR (25th)
  5. sveumrules
    In a heartbeat. I don't value Casas much as a guy who is already locked into DH/1B at age 25. He's so slow and bad in the field that he needs to put up a 125 wRC+ to approach two WAR. Giolito is washed, at least Civale and Hoskins are still useful. I wouldn't want to include a dead money guy like Rhys in a deal like this anyway, just trade Contreras solo for the best possible return. If I'm sending out three years of Contreras to the Red Sox I'd probably need Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer as co-headliners. Don't really like the BOS pitching prospects or young MLB arms all that much but would probably be looking at a couple guys like Justin Slaten (55 IP of 69 ERA- | 63 FIP- in his MLB debut last year), Luis Perales (big arm just had TJ), Jedixson Paez (96 IP of 3.17 ERA/FIP in A/A+ this year), or Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (89 IP of 2.91 ERA | 3.56 FIP in A/A+ this year) to round out the package.
  6. sveumrules
    Last year they were 9 W - 8 L while scoring the 12th most points per game (22.5) and allowing the 10th fewest points per game (20.6). They should finish this year 12 W - 5 L and are currently scoring the 8th most points per game (27.4) and allowing the 6th fewest points per game (19.6). They are currently 5th in point differential after finishing 10th last year. Sounds like you were hoping for them to take a couple two tree steps forward, not just one.
  7. sveumrules
    Sounds like the Dodgers are signing Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim (not to be confused with free agent infielder and former Padre Ha-Seong Kim) to a three year deal. Let the Gavin Lux trade speculation to the Brewers begin again for the umpteenth time.
  8. sveumrules
    Contreras has so much surplus value that he'd be pretty much impossible to get adequate compensation back for at this point. Quick and dirty he projects for about 15 WAR over the next three years for something like $40M in Arby's salaries which puts his surplus value over $100M for me. Other problems are there is still a degree of uncertainty around how Quero will return from the shoulder and the Brewers have zero catching depth beyond that. Next guy that looks like he could maybe catch 100 games in an MLB season at some point is Luis Corobo down in the DSL.
  9. sveumrules
    Who is Wilson?
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, his 8.10 ERA with TEX last year was largely driven by giving up 11 HR in only 26 IP. He's had a some encouraging peripherals in his MLB stints (4.07 xERA in 2023, 4.33 xFIP in 2024) and Steamer appears to think those are more indicative of his true talent level with a 4.17 ERA projection for 2025. There are 185 relievers with at least 100 IP from 2022-24 with Hoby Milner coming in at 191 IP (14th) | 76 FIP- (39th) | 83 ERA- (72nd) | 64 BB%+ (11th) | 65 HR9+ (48th) | 2.6 fWAR (38th) | 1.9 rWAR (69th) | +2.61 WPA (48th) Even though Hoby didn't have big strikeout stuff (105 K%+ | 117th) he managed to be somewhere around a top 40 to 70 reliever in MLB over a three year stretch. If the Brewers can get Anderson's homer issues similarly under wraps like they did with Hoby (168 HR9+ from 2017-21) there could definitely be something there.
  11. sveumrules
    Financials are in. Looks like a $10M signing bonus and $30M salaries each of the first two seasons with $10M deferred each year. Opt out decision will be to beat 4/140 that is left then with $44M of that amount also deferred. Full no trade first two years, limited no trade if he doesn’t trigger the opt out. Deferrals drop the present day value to around $194M for CBT purposes.
  12. sveumrules
    Profar can play 1B in the sense that “anyone can” but with 486 innings over parts of eight different seasons and never playing more than 173 innings in any single season I’m not sure how much of a first baseman he really is. He’s definitely not a 2B anymore with -29 DRS | -6 FRV at the keystone and one solitary inning there the last three years. Third base? Come on, now. Hasn’t played there since 2018 and has -5 DRS | -3 FRV there in his 673 innings from six to eleven years ago. Profar is a LF, but with -19 DRS | -19 FRV the last two years he’s pretty much the worst one there is afield. Guy finally has one season of legit corner outfield production after eleven years in the bigs, has less than zero defensive value, has -3.6 BsR over the last three years, and supposedly wants something like Tyler O’Neill money? I’d be mucho surprised if Profar was on the Brewers radar at all unless his market craters to a one year deal a la Moose in 2019.
  13. sveumrules
    The NFL Playoff Projections at The Athletic give the Packers a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  14. sveumrules
    Between Bauers and Sanchez that's 119 games started at DH/1B that are opened up now. I'd be looking to split up that time something like this in 2025... DH: Yelich (65) Contreras (45) Hoskins (26) Black (26) 1B: Hoskins (110) Black (52) Bauers also picked up nine games on the grass as the 6th OF and another 33 PAs as the most frequently used pinch hitter to end the year with 346 PAs. No reason Black can't get 350-400 PAs in a similar role this year to give us a better idea if he is ready for a more full time spot in 2026.
  15. sveumrules
    Perkins and Frelick are pretty redundant with Astros in house options like Jake Myers, Chas McCormick and old friend Mauricio Dubon as guys who derive most all their value from defense and base running. Blake Perkins 85 wRC+ | +3.2 BsR | +19 DRS Sal Frelick 88 wRC+ | +4.4 BsR | +21 DRS Jake Myers 87 wRC+ | +3.8 BsR | +19 DRS Mauricio Dubon 86 wRC+ | -3.2 BsR | +11 DRS Chas McCormick 110 wRC+ | -3.5 BsR | +15 DRS McCormick is the only one with any track record of hitting, but he cratered last year with a 66 wRC+ over 267 PAs. Dubon brings the added element of being a plus defensive 2B as well with +12 DRS there for his career. Astros could use another OF for sure, but I'd think it would have to be Mitchell since he offers some offensive upside that Sal and Blake just don't quite have.
  16. sveumrules
    Yeah, on the one hand the Brewers are on year nine of a multi season run that has seen them win the 6th most games in MLB since 2017, but on the other hand they’re really only going into their 2nd year with this pretty much entirely new core of players. I’d imagine Arnold and associates view this offseason as more or less status quo, especially with the decreased TV money. With the talent in the pipeline over the next couple years just keep the books as clean as possible aside from Yelich’s deal so that we can hopefully extend whichever youngsters turn out and maybe even have room to make an opportunistic “big money” move should the right opportunity present itself.
  17. sveumrules
    Last year's rookie class is going to be tough to beat. Position players combined for 8.5 WAR which was the most any team got from their rookie hitters in 2024, and the pitchers matched them with another 8.5 rWAR of their own which tied the Cubs for the highest total any team got from their first year hurlers.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah. It's a guy from SI rehashing an idea from a FanSided post. I'll make a prediction...Christian Yelich ends his contract as a Brewer.
  19. sveumrules
    I dunno, Vierling seems like a guy that is just kind of ok at everything. His +3.0 BsR comes in 103rd of 330 players with at least 1,000 PAs since 2021 and that is probably his most standout ranking. His career wRC+ is 100 on the nose. Steamer projects a 103 next year, ZiPS says 101. In 2,450 outfield innings he has -1 DRS | +1 FRV, in 639 innings at 3B it's -4 DRS | 0 FRV. He walks (88 BB%+), strikes out (93 K%+) and hits for power (87 ISO+) at below average rates so his offense is pretty driven by hitting singles (106 AVG+) the other way (119 OPPO+).
  20. sveumrules
    There's plenty of room for Black to get around 350 to 400 PAs in the Bauers role as things currently stand.
  21. sveumrules
    I'd give him a minor league deal with a camp invite and a bunch of incentives for sure. Considering his age and how recent his TJ was I don't think I'd go so far as a guaranteed deal and 40 Man spot though.
  22. sveumrules
    Black’s almost four years older, had been hitting all year at Biloxi vs one scorching month for Jackson, and played a completely different position than Chourio did. I don’t recall thinking there was anything crazy about it at the time.
  23. sveumrules
    The 2007 infield was great at the plate but brutal afield...Braun (-32), Fielder (-15), Weeks (-10). Only by the grace of JJ (+9) did they sneak above -50 DRS by a couple runs. Put it all together and BRef says they were worth 11.0 WAR. Robin Yount put up 10.6 WAR all by himself in 1982. Throw in another 14.5 WAR from Molly, Coop, Gumby and the 1982 infield more than doubled the 2007 infield's WAR total. A number of those late seventies early eighties infields eclipsed 2007 pretty easily - 1977 (14.8 WAR), 1978 (16.4 WAR), 1979 (13.1 WAR), 1980 (20.1 WAR), 1983 (20.1 WAR). For a more recent season that cleared the 2007 infield by a few wins there was 1996 with Jaha (4.2) Vina (1.7) Valentin (3.9) Cirillo (4.5) combining for 14.5 WAR. From a total value standpoint, the 2007 infield was most comparable to years like... 1992 (11.3 WAR) Stubbs (0.1) Fletcher (3.4) Listach (4.5) Seitzer (3.3) 1998 (11.0 WAR) Jaha (0.0) Vina (3.1) Valentin (2.0) Cirillo (5.9)
  24. sveumrules
    The only real concerning element of his performance has been a steadily declining K-rate… K% since 2021 35.6 > 30.5 > 25.5 > 23.1 K%+ since 2021 153 > 135 > 115 > 102 His batting average allowed also spiked from .198 with the Brewers defense from 2021-23 up to .225 in his lone Orioles season. Cutter velocity dipped a little in 2023, but rebounded last year. Checking the movement profile on his cutter it looks like he did “tighten it up” some last year with a VertDrop of 17.5 (was between 18.6 to 19.2 the previous three years) and a HorBreak of 2.4 after being between 3.1 and 4.4 the previous three seasons.
  25. sveumrules
    Interesting that Burnes only got six years when he’s been healthier than Fried, who got an eight year deal. Obviously a higher AAV for Corbin, but I thought Boras would hold out for at least 7/250 after Max got 8/218.
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