Cool Hand Lucroy

Ortiz at third tells me they are valuing infield defense over the platoon advantage. Pivetta having somewhat reverse splits might factor in as well. Yelich has absolutely tattooed Pivetta over his career. 7 hits in 18 ABs, with 2HR and 2 doubles. He's also walked three times for a near .500 OBP and a massive 1.288 OPS. Makes sense to move him up to fifth, maybe.

No Brewers lineup yet, but the Padres are going: Tatis, Merrill, Machado France, Salas, Sheets Bogaerts, Harris, Cronenworth Couple of shifts with Salas getting the start and hitting fifth. Merrill moves up to second. Harris drops to eighth.

Agree with this. I think negativity bias and a readiness to accept posturing as fact make the consensus tilt too far toward labor crisis. I could be wrong. I think there's still a significant chance the season gets delayed at least a bit. Prediction markets (find them super troubling, but useful as an indicator of consensus) have full season odds at like 45%. I'd think it's slightly higher than that.

Excellent. Very cool. Thanks!

My feeling on this one is: Give me Turang's line, and I'll tell you if we won. If he gets a couple of hits, I'd give us great odds.

This is our tough choice: how hard to push in a tight game, especially tied or with a small lead. The Padres don't have to make a tough choice. They do, though, have to pay a tax. The tax is throwing as many guys as they need to to stay in it or keep a lead. The more they do, the more it accrues to our advantage should Game 4 become necessary. Our job is simply to stay in this one. With what looks like an offense-friendly night, I think it's especially important to do that with the bats. Obviously, we want our pitchers to perform well, but, as long as we hit, the Padres have to do something tonight that weakens their overall series odds.

I'd love to hear more about the marine layer if you've got it. I know it's a big factor in how PetCo plays, but if there's a good way to describe why, that would be awesome. The good news on this front is that May is that he's much more of a ground-ball pitcher than Pivetta, at least over his career (2026 is a bit of an outlier, though). Pivetta has higher K numbers, but he gives up a lot of fly balls. Dangerous to read too much into things given how short the leashes will be, but it's something, I guess!

Some good points re: May. I think two things: 1) A lot of this is matchups and intangibles. Start a veteran on the road in a tough environment against a team whose most dangerous hitters are also righties (with one exception). 2) Being up 2-0 and having Gasser throw so well down the stretch gives you some flexibility. If May falters, you can go to Gasser in Game 4 and maybe feel okay while saving Miz and Hendo for Game 5. I don't know that they do that and let's hope it's moot. But you can gamble at this stage. And May is a fairly safe gamble. I am on board with winning this in SD. We can't keep going up 2-0 at home and failing to close on the road.

I'm keeping an open mind on the pitch-tipping. It really doesn't matter to me either way. It's part of the game, still have to execute, etc., so I don't really have a dog in the fight. The Yelich signal seems much clearer and more intentional. Sal's seems...less so. He goes more to the neck than the head, and it's like the same motion I make when I'm swatting a gnat or something. Not to say I don't believe it. Just that I'm not nearly as confident as some seem to be.

The funny thing about this conversation is that it's taking place, in part, because the faces on the mountain are going to be different in 10 years, once we all get the benefit of historical perspective. The only thing I feel very confident in is that Yount isn't changing. He'll be up there forever. Right now, Molitor, Yelich, and Braun feel like clear answers for the other three places to me, though I might go with a symbolic Ueck or CC (great suggestion, that) or Aaron as the fourth one, just to avoid the Braun controversy. If Fingers had pitched in the '82 World Series, oh boy. You'd maybe have to put him up there, especially if they'd won it. He feels like a historical "what if" for the purposes of lots of different conversations. He's not on the list (hence the blue earlier in the thread), but man. Maybe not as far off as it seems. Chourio seems like the clear favorite to carve his own space. He's light years ahead of the current crop of young players, but you could certainly see Mis making a case on the pitching side, or Lara, Pratt, or Made putting up excellent career that warrant discussion. Does Turang put up 4 more years like these last two and then re-sign? What about Contreras? I think those two are unlikely adds, but Turang could have a case if he sticks with the Crew for the next four years. Some of it might come down to how much the Mt. Rushmore is going to care about postseason success and Brewers exclusivity. All of which is to say: it seems like we're watching a bunch of players who might end up in the conversation, and that's a great sign for this era of Brewers baseball.

Was just looking over his game logs. He's been good. Hasn't had a blow-up outing. Gave up 2 runs in 4 innings against SF in mid-September, but other than that it's a lot of 1s and 0s in the R column. The thing is, he hasn't thrown more than 5 innings this year. Only gone over 80 pitches once in the last month (and only over 70 twice). Some of that is recovering from injury. Some of it is the Padres bullpen. Some of it, at least in the Cubs game, is just trying to win a playoff game. Point being, it would be pretty out of character for the Padres to push him very deep. Obviously, if the Brewers can't put any pressure on him and/or SD puts up early runs, that changes the equation. But I think it's really important to force Stammen's hand on pulling Pivetta. You've got to make those bullpen arms cover 5 or 6 innings, if, for no other reason, to increase the tax for forcing a Game 4. They're going to be leaning into that early hook philosophy anyway. Let's push them into doing it.

The Pitching Ninja guys said the same thing. I believe the exact quote was: "Sometimes, the hitters win." I think part of what made that such a great finish was that, yeah the Padres had their closer on the mound for six outs, but it was exactly what they wanted. They were willing to live with what happened. The Brewers were too. You just make the moves you can and then let go. Our best beat their best. That's the way it should be, especially in October.

This is certainly the consequence of only carrying 11 pitchers. Sure, you get some flexibility offensively, but the kinds of players you're gaining that flexibility with aren't super likely to be difference makers, at least not in terms of getting the big hit. I think the Padres would be perfectly fine with that trade off, but one of the underrated things coming in is that their high-leverage arms worked A LOT this year. The bullpen had to cover more innings than anyone in baseball. They may well turn it around. But this is the risk you take. If you build to win those close games and don't do it, you're in a situation where your best arms have worked a lot and been seen a lot. The other big-picture thing I wanted to mention is our playoff road losing streak. On the one hand, it's not good to have lost 11 in a row on the road in the postseason. On the other, to have played that many games in 8 years (with two playoff years where we didn't play any) shows how successful this team has been. I just feel like that streak has to end sometime. Hoping it can be in Game 3. I expect the Padres will come out swinging.

I forgot about Hamilton's catch, too. So many wild things happened yesterday, it's hard to even put them all together. Hamilton hustling up the line almost certainly impacted Cronenworth on that second run too. I know there are a lot of heroes, but I think Hamilton is one of them.

Baseball, man. Baseball. My first reaction to this was: he should throw every first pitch! My second reaction was: wait, no way my heart can take many more of these walk-off wins. I'd like a few 6-1 playoff Ws if the Brewers don't mind.

Here's' to the same ending, though maybe slightly less dramatic (not sure my nervous system can take it).

I guess that's why the play at home was way closer than I thought it would be. Chourio smoked it, and Merrill really does have an absolute cannon.

Good point. That and Pratt's leaping grab were maybe the two best defensive plays in a game that had quite a few.

So many great thoughts in this thread. I echo the emotion. Getting choked up watching that final play. I thought Sal was close to getting thrown out despite being positive it was over the second it got into the outfield. Very Morgan-esque. Speaking of, a series of thoughts: 1) I think that Chourio single is easily a top 3 hit in franchise history. I wasn't around in '82, but Cooper's single, Morgan's winner, and what we saw tonight. I guess you could make the argument for Moose in Game 1 (but, really, that game just felt like one we should have had, and there was such a high from beating the Cubs that it didn't feel quite so high stakes) or Braun's homer in 2008 (a strong contender, but regular season). If folks can think of others (Prince hit a massive homer against the DBacks), I'm up for it. 2) Like others have said, I had some thoughts ready about pinch-hitting decisions when Matsui came in for Mitchell, Yelich, Frelick. I still think THAT'S probably the spot for Vaughn and/or Sanchez, but maybe Murph was onto something making Miller go through that pocket. If he's going to get six outs, there's value in keeping the platoon advantage for three of them, though that couldn't have been predicted at the time. Call it good luck. It ended up being okay. 3) On the pitching side, I thought Uribe was going to get just one out. Surprised that him, Ashby, and Megill were all used. But they put up zeroes. I'll hope the off day resets things somewhat, but I think we're going to have see Drohan and/or Patrick get multiple outs in SD. It would sure help if Mr. May becomes Dr. October. 4) Like @Jim French Stepstool said, I don't begrudge Stammen for trying to get 6 outs from Miller. But that's exhibit A for why it's a tough call. Miller just doesn't do that. No elite closer does. It's a lot to ask to of a guy in that kind of pressurized environment. But none of it matters if those guys don't put up great ABs. And, yeah, I think Morejon's night last night REALLY mattered. You don't go straight to Miller if he doesn't throw so much yesterday. Carryover damage from the Brewers. 5) Yelich really did "earn the C" as someone noted earlier. That was a great performance. And Frelick was awesome too. Even his groundout took a great play from France. If our lefty bats produce, we win. It really is that simple most of the time. And I thought the lefties were good enough tonight, with even Hamilton putting up decent ABs. He just missed a homer in his first one. 6) Sloppy, sloppy defense, and genuinely a sloppy game all around. The Padres have to be kicking themselves for all the runners they've left on. You almost wonder if trying to be patient (something they've been AWESOME at this series) has taken away from some of their aggressiveness and run production. I wonder how their swings will look once they get back home. That team was hacking early and often against the Cubs, so it really is a totally different approach we've seen these last two games. That said, they've clearly had the better ABs all series. It hasn't resulted in better contact quality, but we'll need to get back to doing Brewers things early with Pivetta on the mound in Game 3. If we can force that bullpen (which we've seen a lot--an underrated aspect of only 11 pitchers isn't just fatigue; it's that we get a lot of looks at these guys in a condensed timeframe) to cover 5, you'll feel pretty good, especially with Walker Buehler probably throwing Game 4 on a very, very short leash. 7) It might not be appreciated, but a moment of genuine empathy for Padres fans. We've been in this position before, or at least something like it, in 2019 and 2021. That's a franchise with a similar playoff history (two WS appearances, but blown out both times and whole lot of "bites at the apple" that don't end well. They must have felt a lot of momentum, and it just stings to lose like that. Like I said, I don't think this was a particularly well-played game, but still. These have been two absolute nail-wrecking classics, and the part of me not celebrating (an admittedly small part) is feeling for everyone who cares about that team as much as I care about this one. This series isn't over, but those are two tough losses. I desperately hope we hang one more on them. But since San Diego always stays classy, it's worth trying to return the favor. 8) If my count is correct, we've lost 11 playoff road games in a row, with the last win being Game 3 in LA in 2018. It's about time we turned that around. Let's only come back to MKE for the NLCS. 9) Mitchell is just really reluctant to challenge. Some not close 3-0 pitches that he just let get called strikes. I get that's a tough call, but missing TWICE is tough. At least it didn't hurt the second time. He singled. Maybe that feeds into a broader point about the umpiring. Again, I thought San Diego got the better of it, especially on check swings (I'd love to get a better replay of the Bauers one--they didn't really show it on broadcast). Small margins, we won anyway, hurray. 10) Speaking of, whichever TV director was giving us side angles and ump cams during Turang's AB after Chourio got hit needs to chill. Just let us watch the game, bro! We don't need to see Machado creeping in or Chourio leading. I'm all for experimenting, but geez. Let's call it after the fifth or so, okay? 11) Finally, Turang needs a redemption tour. He's 9-for-49 in his playoff career, though half of those have been extra base hits. OPS is .572. Simply have to get that guy going, especially if he's defending the way he was tonight. Hoping for a comfortable win on Tuesday. Go Crew!

I expect Joey subs for defense if the game is at all close. Doesn't mean Hamilton can't hurt them defensively (I might have Jerry Hairston flashbacks every time the ball gets near him), but it mitigates things somewhat. Frelick being in makes perfect sense. Any word on whether MLB has decided to open the roof? I had heard, in previous years, that they prioritize consistency in playoff series (and we have seen that over the years). I'd be surprised if it's open.

Bauers smoked one to a perfectly positioned shortstop. Chourio hit a ripping liner to right-center. Contreras was robbed of a hit by a sliding play. So was Chourio. We also had our share of luck in Mitchell's broken bat single. The last out of the game was smoked. But, yeah, this picture makes perfect sense to me overall. The Brewers got one big break to get the 2nd out in the ninth (how big of a break, people can debate). But both Padres runs were the result of some good luck/poor defense. If I'm a Padres fan, the big "luck" factor I'm thinking about is RISP. They just left a ton of guys on. Couldn't get the big hit. They had the traffic and put the Brewers more consistently under pressure. I thought they did some things right and deserved more than the 6% number on this graphic. Still, I certainly agree we hit the ball harder and with more consistency.

Listening to snippets of the Padres radio call this morning, and the first reaction to the France ball in the 9th was something like, "France hits it a mile in the air, but it's going to twist foul, and there's Chourio in fair territory making the catch." Statcast has the math to back it up, but I don't think anyone other than hype-mad Adam Amin thought that ball was dangerous off the bat. It just looked like a foul ball to me. That doesn't mean it wasn't lucky for the Brewers. I don't think that thing stays in play if not for the roof. But had that gone for a homer, it also would have been a unicorn, "lucky" home run because balls with that launch angle don't leave the yard. Like, ever. Anyway. Onto this afternoon. King's coming off a major outing with a lot of hype. Meanwhile, Henderson is quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let's hope he puts together 6 or 7 scoreless and the Brewers offense puts an end to the King Michael narrative.

Some thoughts as I calm myself down. 1) The roof will be a story. Who the hell knows? I thought, off the bat, "no way that stays fair." But it made me nervous. I'll trust the Statcast figures. It doesn't matter in the end. The Padres had chances and couldn't get it done. Credit to the bullpen. Everyone contributed. Special star to Ashby for making things slightly less stressful. 2) Speaking of stress, I think that was the most stressful playoff game I've seen. Maybe Game 4 in LA in 2018? Maybe 2019? 2011 Game 5? Okay, those two have the edge because of the higher stakes. But this felt more intense than Game 5 against the Cubs, probably because of all the baserunners. I'll call it the second most stressful non-elimination game I've ever seen. I know that sounds like a dumb label, but crap. I was stressed. And I was zen until like 4 minutes prior to first pitch. 3) I actually thought the Padres got the better of the umpiring. Mitchell and Ortiz both failed to challenge high strikes and had two borderline check swing calls go their way. Obviously, the rafter will overshadow that, but I think it's true. The home plate umpiring was pretty good overall. 4) This bullpen felt like it heard everyone talking about the Padres and decided to make a few things clear. We really saw different roster construction philosophies. San Diego used all their best non-Miller arms (Morejon threw 30 pitches), and they don't have a ton of cover after a 7-out start from Ray. We'll see if that hurts them. They weren't able to cash the extra offensive flexibility with the barrage of PRs and PHs in the 8th. Only 11 pitchers might be an issue if they can't get length from King and Pivetta. 5) Credit to the Padres for taking the right approach against Mis. It pains me to give AJ Pierz any credit at all (I have always hated his commentary style), but he was right about the cutters. 6) The Yelich AB with the bases loaded was maybe the biggest one of the game in terms of adding to the stress. It's hard to blame him too much. He had an opposite field approach and tried to get the first pitch in the air. Just didn't work out. I imagine he was crushed in the thread (I can't read these during playoff games--they're hard enough as it is), but really not much to do there. San Diego had excellent positioning all night, and it paid off there too. 7) Murphy pushed the right buttons tonight. I had two concerns. First, I thought he left Hall in one batter too long, but it worked out and maybe saved Megill some bullets for Machado. Second, I was 60-40 in favor of bringing in Romero for Merrill. It worked out, but that ball was smoked. 8) I thought Lara put up some good ABs tonight. Not much to show for it, but he did fine. Pratt was more mixed at the plate. His late AB was real bad. His first was quite good. Glad those guys got the first playoff appearances under their belts. 9) Finally, I think this does take a little pressure off tomorrow. Obviously, you'd much rather be up 2-0. But you really needed to get this one with Miz on the hill. Now, again, the Brewers will have the better starter by overall numbers, and San Diego is going to have to manage a tired bullpen. I doubt they'll have a real quick hook on King, so I think it's a much more "win our way" situation at first pitch. I think I'm 10 percent calmer now.

Thanks, Ueck.

All good points. Murph has quite an affinity for Lockridge, too, so that might balance out the equation somewhat.