Today brings back fond memories of August 28, 1982.
For those who weren't around then, in 1982 the Brewers got off to a sluggish start, changed managers, and on June 14 were just a game over .500 at 30-29 and 7.5 games out of first place. From there the team went on tear for the next 2 1/2 months, winning 45 of 67 games. At 75-51 they were 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox and 7 games ahead of the Orioles, and it looked like they were in great shape to claim the franchise's first full season division title. A similar path to this year with the addition of the midseason managerial change.
Someone then might have said that all the Brewers had to do was win half of their remaining games to get to 93-69 and one of their pursuers would have to win more than 2/3 of their remaining games just to tie for the division crown.
What actually happened was that the Orioles. who had a winning percentage of .540 on August 28, won 13 of their next 16 games to cut the Brewers once comfortable lead to just 2 games with 18 games to play..The Orioles extended their hot streak to 20 of 24 but the Brewers maintained their slim lead through the final weeks and led by 4 games with 5 to play before losing 4 and then claiming the title in the winner take all final game.
One lesson I took away from the experience of living through that last month is that you can never assume that a trailing team won't put together an unexpected run in the final weeks. So just playing .500 in the last month might not be good enough. If the Brewers had just played .500 ball from August 28 on, their final record of 93-69 would not have been good enough to hold off the Orioles, who won 26 of their last 36.
Similar "out of the blue" hot streaks propelled the Cardinals of 2021 (who won 17 in a row) and Tigers last year (who won 30 of their last 43 after being 8 games under .500 in mid August) to playoff berths.
If the Brewers play .500 the rest of the way they will probably win the division. But it would be preferable not to leave that path open.
BTW, August 28, 1982 is a memorable day for me because it happened to be my wedding day.