BruisedCrew

Why Moose? He hits lefties better than righties? Definately sit Shaw against any lefty till he knows how to wear big boy pants against them. Thames needs to sit. he is almost just as awful against lefties. Id start with those 2 sitting. We just have to deal with Aguilar who is killing us. He is distraught and swinging at ghost. The only reason to give Moustakas the day off is because he has been playing every day and Shaw hasn’t. We all know that Counsell likes to give the members of the “position player group” a day off every so often and that it isn’t always a matter of playing the best players. So, I would like to see Moustakas play too, but I don’t know what Counsell will do.

I assume the catcher didn't remember how many strikes were on the guy and was trying to throw out the guy "stealing"?.... Maybe. Or maybe he didn’t realize how many outs there were and was trying to cut down the lead runner. No matter what, his head wasn’t in the game correctly.

I have the Cardinals- Rockies game on and just saw a play I don’t remember ever seeing before. With a runner on first and two out, the Cardinal batter strikes out on a ball that bounced in to the catcher. The batter trots toward first and the runner on first takes off for second while the catcher picks up the ball. But instead of throwing to first for the final out, the catcher fires the ball to second, where there happens to be nobody even close to covering. So, the ball sails into CF and the runner swings around to third. Fortunately, after a hit batter to load the bases, the pitcher struck the next guy out to preserve a 2-1 lead, but not after throwing several unnecessary high stress pitches. .

Here’s my expectation for tonight’s game. First, Yelich will get the night off, at least to start. Counsell said several days ago that he was looking to get Yelich a break, but couldn’t do it while he was so hot. But, he has cooled noticeably over the last few games with only one hard hit ball, 3 infield singles, and a few strikeouts and weak grounders. So, what better time to give him a break than against Keyshaw. I expect to see Perez in right with either Shaw or Moustakas sitting out. Second, this has the makings of a sacrifice game where Kershaw shuts down the Brewers and the Dodgers get an early lead. So, the Brewers will save the top end of the bullpen for the weekend. Hopefully Chacin can get through 6 so the bullpen (starting with Williams) doesn't have to cover too many innings.

Albers has had really bad stretches in his career. This is nothing new. Right now he can't be used in high leverage situations. Except that the Brewers, like everyone else, only have a limited number of pitchers that are ideal in high leverage situations, and when they have been used or are unavailable you have to go to the back end of the bullpen and hope for the best. I think everyone would put Albers behind Hader, Jeffress, Soria, and Knebel in the bullpen pecking order, and there are a lot of people who don’t trust Knebel in high leverage situations either. Burnes, Williams, Jennings, and Albers (or whoever is in the back end of the bullpen) are going to have to deliver in some high leverage situations when the bullpen is asked to cover 4-5 innings a game several times a week, especially when games go into extra innings and the team is scuffling to score runs. The Brewers don’t get that many leads of 4 runs or more to give the bullpen the luxury of giving up runs.

A lot of it depends on how you slice and dice it, but before his clean outings Jeffress had a rough stretch of 6 games in which he gave up 11 hits and 3 walks in 5.1 innings and gave up runs in 3 of the 6 outings. Maybe I’m in the minority, but right now my confidence in both of them is about the same. I’m not all that concerned about which of the two of them closes because they are both critical to the team’s success and, as often as not, they will both have to cover an inning in winnable games. If you say so, the numbers doon't lie. even with a couple bad outings he's still been way better than Knebel, and really not close. Even Jeffress's regressing the last two months he still had a 2.38 which is really good. And he passes the eye test, not constantly behind in the count, more pitches, etc. To each their own I guess but to me it's not even close. Here’s what I was looking at when I posted on the other thread this morning. Knebel got off to a rocky start this year, giving up a few runs early, then getting hurt and missing several weeks. His ERA peaked in late May. On May 30 Jeffress gave up a couple of runs against the Cardinals (the first runs he had given up in a long time) but the Brewers came back to win with Knebel getting the save. Starting with that game 2 months ago, here is the stat comparison for them, with Jeffress first then Knebel: IP 23.2/20.1 H. 23/18 BB. 8/7 WHIP. 1.31/ 1.23 R 8/8 ER 7/8 K. 34/28 HR. 3/3 ERA. 2.66/3.54 Lost 1/1 BS. 3/1 To me, these are very comparable numbers. The ERA difference looks big, but it’s just one less ER in 3 more innings. Knebel may fall behind more hitters, but he hasn’t walked any more. I think people would be surprised that Jeffress has 3 brown saves over these 2 months to just 1 for Knebel. I just think they stick in the gut more when the closer blows a lead in the 9th inning. On to tonight’s game. So, we can agree to disagree but I think these guys have been pretty close, and I feel just as confident (and just as nervous) with either of them closing. If they flipped roles I don’t think it would make much, if any, difference in the team’s results.

I posted something about this late in last night’s game thread, but after being nearly perfect in April and late into May Jeffress has had some rough outings too. Over the last two months Jeffress and Knebel have been pretty comparable. Knebel's July ERA is 5.25 and gave up runs in 5 of his last 10. Jeffress was 2.38 in both July and August. Only gave up runs in 3 games in July. Yes he's not perfect like he was April/May but he's still clearly our best guy. Surprisingly they had the same amount of walks in July with only 4. I'd like to see a count on how many 3 ball counts Knebel had thought and how often he starts at least 2-0. Moreover, eye test it's clear Knebel isn't as good. On any given night he has no idea if his curver is there or not. A lot of it depends on how you slice and dice it, but before his clean outings the last two nights Jeffress had a rough stretch of 6 games in which he gave up 11 hits and 3 walks in 5.1 innings and gave up runs in 3 of the 6 outings. Maybe I’m in the minority, but right now my confidence in both of them is about the same. I’m not all that concerned about which of the two of them closes because they are both critical to the team’s success and, as often as not, they will both have to cover an inning in winnable games.

I posted something about this late in last night’s game thread, but after being nearly perfect in April and late into May Jeffress has had some rough outings too. Over the last two months Jeffress and Knebel have been pretty comparable.

Aguilar's July OPS was .770.... Stinky Aguilar > Perez every day of the week... Aguilar’s July OPS is propped up by games early in the month when he was still hot. In his last 14 games his OPS is .445, which is approaching Sogard country. I’m trying to figure out how Aguilar is going to show that he’s stopped swinging with his arms if he doesn’t play. I would bet he’s hitting just fine in BP.

That's likely, but with a lot of off days in August, they could get by with one less arm too which would mean Williams getting optioned. I don’t think they can get by well with one less arm. They need a lot of relievers to cover the frequent short starts and to have coverage for possible extra inning games.

Don't see any reason Counsell won't be good to his word on this one. I don’t think it will exactly be closer by committee because, at least for the time being, I see Knebel as the primary closer. But, because the Brewers often have to use 3 or 4 relievers to close out wins (last night’s game was a pleasant exception) they can’t have hard and fast roles for the top end relievers. When they have to use 4 relievers like they did in Monday it might come down to who is the freshest. If they have a chance to win tonight, Soria and Jeffress will probably be lower on the list because they have each pitched 2 nights in a row. And I’m not sure if Hader will be available since they seem to give him more than one day of rest if he throws multiple innings like he did Monday. So, Burnes, Jennings, and Albers are more likely to see action tonight with Knebel set to close if an opportunity is there. I also think it seems to be going unnoticed that Jeffress has had his own bouts of inconsistency lately. Maybe they don’t get as much attention because he isn’t usually pitching the ninth inning. But, after being almost perfect for the first two months, he has been somewhat less than that since then. Knebel’s season long numbers are weighted down by some awful performances early in the year, including some in mop up non save situations (including when he got hurt). Since late May, I think Jeffress and Knebel have been pretty much equally effective with some rough outings thrown in for both. I have about the same level of confidence in each of them as a closer, and I suspect Counsell is the same way. Jeffress might be a little better at pitching multiple days consecutively, and that could be why he got the nod last night.

Yelich is the most graceful baserunner the Brewers have had since Yount. He just glides from first to the plate.

One thing that has become obvious right away is that Moustakas has a much stronger arm than Shaw.

There is no way Yelich could sustain the scorching pace he was in for the last two weeks or so, but there are signs that he has cooled off significantly. He had the ripping double to lead off yesterday, but otherwise his last 10 ABs have been all strikeouts and weak grounders (including the two infield hits on Sunday. Hopefully he will just cool down to a more human level and not go into an Aguilar like deep freeze or scuffle like he did for about 6 weeks from late May to early July. Regardless, it’s time for someone else to get hot.

I’m surprised that the Brewers added two infielders, but did nothing to address catcher or starting pitching. But, as this sinks in, there are a couple of things about which I have to remind myself. The first is that, we don’t know who it will be, but it is almost certain that somebody in the “position player group” will get injured before the end of the season. I just hope it isn’t too many guys and that they won’t be out for too long. But the depth that we’re discussing today will probably be thinner at times and it will be nice to be able to plug in a stronger bat than Orf or Sogard. Also, the Brewers like to give almost everyone a day off at least once a week. The added depth allows them to do that without fielding a notorious “Sunday lineup” and it will also allow them to have some bigger bats on the bench when needed. Hopefully this will all make the everyday players fresher in September. I still expect the Brewers to make some kind of waiver deal for a starting pitcher before the end of August. I am concerned that the Cubs and Pirates (who both have slapped the Brewers around already this year) have done a lot more to bolster their pitching. The head to head games against those teams could be crucial.

Why are so many of the trade threads being locked? Unless there is a pitcher included in the Schoop deal or they can pick someone up in a waiver deal, it looks like the Brewers are going all in with their current starters. If the 4 inning starts keep piling up that could end up being their Achilles heel.

If the Brewers did make a last second deal for Schoop and Gausman, would Shaw be part of it? Doesn’t make sense to me to pick up a body at a position that is already covered and with depth.

Chances are if the Brewers get a wild card spot it will come down to the last day or two and they won’t be able to line up pitchers because they will need to use up their best ones just to get into the WC game. So, it could end up being whoever is next in the rotation (on a short leash) or a pure bullpen game. Ideally they would clinch a spot with at least a day or two of the regular season left so they could cover some innings with September callups who won’t be on the playoff roster. .

I was just going to watch this half inning before going to bed. This may take until midnight.

I guess scoring 3 runs after two outs and nobody on cushions the blow from that first inning.

Ouch.

I’ve been watching some of the Mets-Pirates game this afternoon and Wheeler looks like someone who could help the Brewers without being as expensive as some bigger name pitchers.

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t like listening to LePay. He has kind of a halting, sing songy rhythm when he talks that irritates me.

Not bad. Not all that many chances but definitely not as stiff as some (including me) thought he would be. He didn’t have any chances of the type that will be most challenging. He looked pretty awkward going after a pop up to shallow center but managed to make the somewhat difficult over the shoulder catch. But there were no double plays to be turned and no grounders that he had to range for. So his range and ability to make an accurate throw after fielding a ball not hit right at him were not tested.

Nice low stress victory finished in a snappy 2 1/2 hours so I can get to bed at a decent time.