CheeseheadInQC

There are probably a lot of teams that are loving their draft right now. It was a great draft. It seems like there are two areas in which the Brewers stood out: Pick distribution and late round college pitching. I looked at three of the major quadrants, sort of, I stopped after round 4 for college hitters (I didn't do college pitchers because there were too many to dig all the way back to the rounds where the Brewers selected most of theirs). 1. College hitters: The success rate so far for guys in this category taken before pick 60 is really good. So while Wilken and Boeve each has outperformed his draft slot a bit, neither would be considered a real outlier. Good picks, and the Brewers avoided the few guys who look like misses so far, but nothing really out of the ordinary. Wilken, for example, would probably rank 10th right now offensively among college hitters picked in the first four rounds. 2. Prep hitters: Half of the prep hitters who signed from the 2023 draft class have been at least league average hitters in low-A. Yep, I was shocked by it as well. And that isn't even mentioning the three guys, including two Brewers prospects, who have posted 140+ wRC+ in the Complex League. The success rate so far for this group is absurd. 3. Prep pitchers: The first 10 high school pitchers selected are either holding their own at low-A (or high-A in the case of the Marlins' duo) or dominating in the Complex League. After that, the results get to be more of a coin flip, but there are enough success stories where Letson or a pre-injury Hayden Robinson aren't really outliers either. So where did the Brewers stand out? 1. Like I said, I did not do a deep dive into college pitching, but I can't believe that getting what the Brewers have from money-saving senior signs Yoho and Kuehner and 12th-rounder Wichrowski was normal (to say nothing of their amazing undrafted free agent). If their first two college pitchers from the draft can make strong showings when healthy, especially if Birchard lives up to the preseason hype, this group becomes even more valuable. 2. Pick distribution. That amazing prep class? Fewer than 100 high school draft picks signed, meaning that on average teams drafted and signed three high schoolers apiece. The Brewers signed eight. The Brewers only took two college bats, but both picks were made before the success rate dropped considerably.

Nice to see Prado get his second straight good outing. Hopefully something has clicked for him.

I think in a normal season (and without the Manfred rules) he would be considered for an ACL call up to prepare him for next season, but that isn't happening at this point.

I like to talk about 15/10/.1 guys (less than 15% strikeout rate, better than 10% walk rate, better than .1 ISO). The Brewers have had three guys who hit all three metrics in their first DSL season (Chourio, Arcia and, umm, Jorge Quiterio). Three are on pace to do it this year: Made, Ortuno and Juan Martinez.

I wonder if, given the lack of enthusiasm around the prep class, especially hitters, fewer teams try to float guys beyond the end of Round 2. If too many teams have money, there is more risk involved.

I am probably biased, given that I have been touting him as a sleeper since his first season, but I wonder if he keeps pitching well if Wande Torres might be the rare DSL pitcher who skips the Complex League. Thanks to the injury, this is already his third season in the system, but he is 6-3, left-handed, and has always struck out a lot of batters.

Among the guys still in the system, I think Vargas might have been the one set back the most by the COVID year. He skipped over the DSL and then got pushed up to A-ball likely too early as the best of a bunch of bad options (the Brewers' minor league infield depth was not exactly the same as it is now). Then, when he predictably struggled, he got shuttled into a last man on the bench role when the Brewers actually got reinforcements. Until this year he has been constantly a level higher than he probably should have been or suffering from inconsistent playing time. Out of curiosity, from what you've seen, has he been unlucky with his batting average? Fangraphs has his batted ball profile (LD/GB/FB, etc.) very similar to Gregory Barrios, except Barrios had a BABIP 100 points higher than Vargas.

This is the first time he has had back to back scoreless outings in his career. Hopefully he is healthy and ready to start stringing good appearances together.

The Brewers have, the last two years, taken a late-rising pitcher who Fangraphs was higher on than most draft sites. With Fangraphs’ ranking coming out today, I am guessing Dasan Hill is the pick here.

Thanks. I fixed the dates. This is what happens when I post without reading some parts back over. And as far as depth goes, you are spot on about catcher.

A caveat: I am not a scout nor a coach nor anyone with any original insights to offer on any of the prospects who will be selected. I do, however, enjoy looking at history, at trends, and trying to see how it could project some of what the Brewers are going to do with their picks. So with that out of the way, here we go. This is, as the title suggested, a long, rambling blog covering everything from Brewers' draft tendencies to positions of organizational need to potential selections for their first pick, as well as a few other tidbits. Well That Came Out of Nowhere The Brewers' 2023 draft has, thus far, been wildly successful. It was also in several regards highly atypical given recent Brewers drafts. Since the bonus pool concept started in 2012, the Brewers, like probably all teams, have employed the tactic of taking a four-year college senior or two in the first 10 rounds in order to save money. The degree to which they did it in 2023 was more extreme, but that wasn't the biggest deviation from the norm. From Ben Metzinger to Michael Ratterree, the majority of the money saving signings were hitters. Between 2012 and 2022, the Brewers only took four of the senior (or equivalent) 4-year college pitchers in the top 10 rounds. Then last year, led by technically freshman eligible but really a senior Craig Yoho, they matched that total in one year. On the other end of the age spectrum on the mound, from 2012-2022 they had signed only 6 or 7 high school pitchers to signing bonuses totaling more than $130,000 after round 10 (I couldn't find how much Gentry Fortuno signed for). Since the pandemic, there had only been one, Caden Vire, and never had there been two in a year. Then last year they signed four high school pitchers from day 3. The question is, was last year a special case as far as who was available or does it represent a change in philosophy? To some degree the high school pitching will be dictated by aspects like bonus pool and availability of signable arms on day 3 of the draft. But will we see the Brewers if the Brewers shift their focus on senior signs to focus more on pitchers rather than hitters. Where are the Needs? Perhaps the best place to examine the Brewers' system's needs is to take a look at where there are not needs: 2nd Base, Shortstop, 3rd Base In alphabetical order, you've got Adamczewski, Adams, Areinamo, Baez, Bitonti, Boeve, Brown, Ereu, Made, Martinez, O'Rae, Pena, Pratt, Quintana, and Wilken. Plus there are hopes for a bounce back from Guilarte, and Alastre and Rodriguez are pushing for backup roles in Carolina. If you can get a top-tier prospect, you find space, but there isn't a lot of playing time available for draft picks next season unless a couple of these guys get dealt at the deadline or during the offseason. Pitching at High-A and Above This is the most flexible for reasons I will get to in a bit, but for the meantime, if none are on the big league roster, you might be looking at a AAA rotation of Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Henderson, Smith and Blaylock with Wichrowski, Hunt, Kuehner, Herrera, Crow, Cornielle and Aquino at AA and, depending on health, Wagoner, Galindez, Woodward, Birchard, Knoth, Rodriguez, Letson, Corniel and Cortez in high-A. While the bullpens are a bit crammed as well, you could always fit a Craig Yoho type in who you plan to fast-track as a reliever. A few of the five youngsters could get held back in Carolina depending on how they finish out the season, and injuries always hang over any pitching projection, but at the very least this is not a position of need. ACL Hitters The one trouble with as many players having really good offensive seasons in the DSL as the Brewers have had this year is that it creates a log jam the following season as you condense two teams down to one in Arizona next season, especially since the Manfred Mandates have made the days of stashing 20+ hitters on a rookie ball team a thing of the past. Right now, here is how things are shaping up: Catcher: Luis Corobo and Freider Rojas seem like good bets to be promoted. Infielders: Jesus Made and Luis Pena are the class of this group thus far, but Juan Martinez, as the third member of that infield, has quietly been really good as well. Kevin Ereu has bounced back from his rough first season and looks likely to be brought stateside. Jorge Quintana has thus far done enough, especially given his bonus status. Frederi Montero might be a half step below the others but still would seem comfortably on the promotion side thus far, at least in any other year. Outfielders: Jose Anderson is at the top. I'm not convinced the Brewers are as high on Juan Ortuno as his stat line suggests, but that just means he's not a top-25 prospect, not that he won't be in the ACL next season. Pedro Tovar is shining in his second season, in large part because he seems to have discovered more extra base power this year. While Frandy Lafond hasn't hit for much power yet, he is looking like a possible promotion so far as well. Add to all of these other possibilities including returners who strike out to much but have otherwise good numbers (Eduardo Charles, Roderick Flores), the small sample size wonder (Kegnnalex Seijas) or a guy whose peripherals suggest he might be this year's version of Tyler Rodriguez (Angel Gonzalez). Then you've got several guys who seem likely to repeat the ACL but it is too early to give up on (Pedro Ibarguen, Antony Gomez, Ramon Moreno, etc.). Even if Made and/or Pena get the Chourio/Lara/Rodriguez treatment and skip the ACL, that is still a lot of players. So what does that leave? The following Outfield While Hedbert Perez will be set to return, that might be the only addition to the lower-level full season outfield rosters other than from the draft. While Ibarguen was great last year and Gomez, Moreno and Gery Holguin have all had their moments, all have a sub-90 wRC+ and a 28%+ K-rate. You also have the fact that unless either A) the Brewers promote Anderson straight to A-ball or B) you consider O'Rae an outfielder, the candidates for the Brewers' third best outfield prospect between AA and low-A next season would include a guy entering his third straight season in AA, a post-hype prospect coming off a major injury, an otherwise extremely talented player who can't seem to coax his K-rate below 30%, a guy less than four months removed from being released by another organization, and a corner outfielder whose career-best OPS is .703 and that came in an extremely hitter-friendly league. I have hopes at least one of those guys will break out, but there is playing time to be had in the outfield on the lower levels. Catcher Unless either of the minor league free agents who have helped solidify the position in Carolina and Wisconsin signed two-year deals, it appears as if heading into next season the Brewers have Blayberg Diaz, Satchell Norman and Edgardo Ordonez to divide between high-A and low-A. Additions here are needed, even if it is just undrafted free agents with solid defense and good intangibles. Drafting one on Day 2 and one on Day 3 seems likely. Low-A Pitching The struggles of the Brewers' ACL pitching staff this season is no secret, and neither is the fact that most of the effective pitchers have already been promoted to Carolina. Of the healthy arms in the ACL, you've got one likely promotion for next year (Melvin Hernandez). Bryan Rivera has been relatively OK, and given the offensive environment in the ACL that might be enough. Anthony Flores' good peripherals might make up for the poor results. After that, it is probably going to take a big push the rest of this year or next spring for Bjorn Johnson and Eric Prado. There will be a couple of holdovers and returners from injury, but on an admittedly really early view, this looks like the shallowest pool of pitchers. The question is, does this mean that the Brewers will target more advanced high school or JUCO pitchers, the kind of pitchers who typically start in low-A, or will they simply buck their recent trend and make the Carolina pitching staff a bit older, putting more of their 4-year college arms in Carolina to start with just because that is where the innings are. Possible Scenarios with the Brewers' First Pick 1. Catch a Falling Star Sometimes below slot deals push players further down the draft board than expected. It happened to the Brewers with Garrett Mitchell. The Brewers also have enough in their bonus pool to go a bit above slot, especially in what many consider to be a shallower than normal draft. Cam Smith seems to be the likeliest to slide to Milwaukee, and has in a number of mock drafts, but it isn't inconceivable that one of Kurtz, Caminiti, Yesavage or Tibbs could drop further than expected. 2. Chalk There are certain draft picks that just make you go: Well, yah, that makes sense. They might not be flashy, but they value seems right, the fit seems right and, well, they make sense. For me this year, Carson Benge feels like a pick that makes sense. It wouldn't be the most shocking pick or the most exciting, but ... well ... it makes sense. 3. The WILD Wild Card If Brody Brecht is still on the board, I am not going to begrudge the Brewers if they take him or if they pass on him. Each team is going to have to decide for itself whether the idea that they can be the one to harness Brecht's considerable talent is a worthy risk or sheer and utter hubris. I trust the Brewers' player development staff enough to go along with whatever they decide here. 4. An Underslot ... High Schooler? When you think of under-slot signings, you usually think college players, and most of the significantly under-slot deals are. But with several high schoolers projected in the 20-35 range, maybe the Brewers can get a slight savings by splitting the difference between where the Brewers pick and where someone like a Theo Gillen is projected to go. Other Draft Thoughts Players the Brewers Could Draft ... Again Although the most famous draft-eligible past Brewers pick is switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, he isn't the only former Milwaukee selection available. Vanderbilt starter Carter Holton is projected to go in the second or third round and Michigan catcher Will Rogers is also available. One guy I could see the Brewers drafting late, however, is Mississippi outfielder Ethan Lege. After a junior college career in which he not only walked twice as often as he struck out but also was almost hit by pitches as often as he struck out, Lege was drafted by the Brewers two years ago as a third baseman. He opted to attend Mississippi instead. His first season with Mississippi he maintained the quantity of contact, striking out less than 8% of the time, but the quality didn't appear to be there since he posted a sub-.700 OPS. This year, however, the quality showed up as he put up a 1.000+ OPS with 13 home runs and more walks than strikeouts before his season was ended prematurely by injury. This isn't a profile I usually love in one respect, for reasons I will get into in the next section, but for a senior sign at a position of need, taking Lege at some point could make sense. One Potential Brewers Pick I am Leery of I have for a while been leery of reading too much into the stats of lower-level minor leaguers repeating a level. The amount gained simply by experience rather than skill or talent, especially when they aren't exactly young for the league, is just too great. It has led me to start to distrust junior year breakouts as well, especially in light of how much Chase Davis has struggled for the Cardinals system this year. So that leads me to a guy whose mock draft blurbs read very similarly to Davis' last year: Ryan Waldschmidt from Kentucky. Like I said earlier, I'm no scout and don't claim to have any eye for baseball talent. But I can't shake being a little leery of Waldschmidt. Someone convince me I am wrong.

The good news is, last year there were two ACL pitchers with strikeout rates of at least 24% and BABIPs against of at least .390 in the ACL. Although neither was as extreme as Flores, both the Reds’ Jose Montero and the Brewers’ Yorman Galindez have posted BABIPs against below .300 in A-ball this season.

I was starting to look at some of the same things with this discussion but eliminating rising prospects in their first true triple-A season. Rooker and Horwitz are really the ones who give hope to guys like Hiura and the Brewers’ Brewer.

I’m probably overstating things, but most teams seem to view their minor league system as means for player development. The Angels sometimes act like they view theirs as a burdensome obligation.

I get what you're trying to do, but man that Angels package for Perkins looks rough based upon their performance this season. They were making prospect lists at the beginning of the year so I'm sure there must be a reason beyond "Well, we've got to rank more than five Angels prospects." But statistically you'd be trading an elite defensive outfielder who isn't completely incompetent with the bat for a guy who'd be the No. 5 starter for the Timber Rattlers and a poor man's Anthony Flores. Acosta would statistically be the worst pitcher with at least 20 innings on the Brewers' ACL team. Look up the stats for the Brewers' ACL team and let that sink in.

Hopefully this gets him going with the bat. The glove is there.

Maybe I am remembering incorrectly but it felt like Baez was on the verge of breaking out when he got hurt. His strikeout rate is absurd for his age especially. I am higher on O’Rae after seeing him in person, although I did catch a good game. The speed felt even faster in person than on highlights, and he had more solid contact than I expected. I just hope he can add a little more strength so the balls that I saw that either one-hop the fence or get caught on the track can instead sneak their way into the stands.

It is fun looking at a DSL lineup and thinking 1) the top eight all are making a case to be stateside next season and 2) that’s despite three of the top four performers so far being on the other DSL squad.

Yah, it turns out there might have been a reason that Alastre only started six games at shortstop last season and Rodriguez none. With Adamczewski firmly entrenched at second, they don’t really have a true shortstop.

Anderson already is tied for sixth on the Brewers’ all-time single season DSL homer list with, among others, Orlando Arcia and Yophery Rodriguez. He has a shot at Eduarqui Fernandez’s record if he keeps this pace up.

One more stat to toss in: The three players with the lowest swinging strike rates in the Southern League are Carlos Rodriguez, Damian Miller and Mike Boeve.

I'll still often keep score when I'm at games of the local minor league team, the Quad Cities River Bandits. I think it was about a decade ago around the trade deadline I was wearing my Brewers hat and keeping score at a Bandits game when someone walked up to me and asked who I was there scouting. I set him straight that I was just a fan keeping score, but afterward I thought of all the off-the-wall rumors I could have started that day.

My guess is a late-rising pitcher who Fangraphs ranks higher than MLB Pipeline. I have no idea who that is yet, but that's my guess based upon the Misiorowski/Knoth picks.

Several years ago, the Brewers made a change in organizational philosophy to place greater emphasis on a prospect's hit tool when it came to scouting for the draft or international signing class. Statistically at least, the results have paid off. Led by the now-injured Juan Baez, the Carolina Mudcats have struck out the fewest times in all of low-A. Not just the Carolina League, but all of low-A. That is impressive, but nothing compared to what the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have done at high-A. The Timber Rattlers have struck out the fewest times of any full-season minor league affiliate this year. Only the Cardinals' Double-A affiliate in Springfield is even close. When you look at Wisconsin's roster, it isn't hard to see why. Almost all minor league teams have strikeout rates north of 20%. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances with the Timber Rattlers, only two hitters strike out that often: Jesus Chirinos and Eduarqui Fernandez. When the player with the third-highest swinging strike rate is Jadher Areinamo, you know that your team makes a lot of contact. Even two of the highest strikeout rates for the rest of the Timber Rattlers have more to do with the patient approaches employed by Luke Adams and the since-promoted Dylan O'Rae than any swing-and-miss issues. Despite the struggles of the double-A offense at Biloxi, the Shuckers have the second fewest strikeouts in the Southern League and are pointed in the right direction, making it possible that three of the Brewers affiliates could soon have the fewest strikeouts in their league. Now that it is apparent that the Brewers change in philosophy has been successful, the question becomes will it be SUCCESSFUL. Can the quality of contact match the quantity and provide the Brewers with a stream of major league contributors? That is still to be determined, but at least initially they have succeeded in what they set out to do. Maybe Archiving These Rankings Wasn't the Best Idea ... I made several references lately in both the minor league forum and some of the Gregory Barrios trade threads of how Barrios and Areinamo have been two of the best hitters from their international signing class this season. While it is possible I missed some players (sorting by age, which is how I came up with a list of names to check, leaves out some of the older signings), it appears as if the Brewers' signings accounted for three of the top six performers this season from that signing class. The five of those who are still in the minor leagues also have something in common: they were not among MLB Pipeline's top 30 Latin American signees from the 2021 class. Only Chourio made the list. This isn't entirely fair. I believe Moises Ballesteros, Samuel Basallo and Barrios were all $1 million or more signings who might have made the list had it been at the 50 it is now. But still, it goes to show that even among the highest-profile, highest dollar signings, very few players break out quickly. The Brewers were so bad for so long in Latin America that it is easy to see what it happening and think that this is normal, that this is what was happening for all those other teams for so long. It's not. Even if you look through the top 50 list for this year, Jesus Made is the outlier (Pena didn't even make the list). Jorge Quintana's struggles are the norm, and many are having more difficulties than Quintana. That so many of the Brewers signings have contributed quickly is a testament to both the Brewers' scouting and development staffs and the players themselves. Moving Fast Researching this article, it became very apparent that the Brewers have become among the most aggressive in promoting their young minor leaguers. They aren't the most aggressive, however. Of course, unlike the Angels, I've never gotten the impression that the Brewers believe the lower levels of the minor leagues are for chumps.

"All the Crew surrendered in the trade was Gregory Barrios, an infielder for the Timber Rattlers who has youth and athleticism to recommend him, but who didn't figure prominently into the team's future plans even before being dealt." I seem to have spent much of today defending Barrios, which is a bit odd given that I didn't hate the trade given the organizational depth at shortstop in the lower minor leagues. This statement is pretty blanket, however. The Brewers have pretty consistently treated Barrios as a prospect of note. He was Carolina's leadoff hitter to start last season, and they didn't stop playing him at shortstop despite the type of struggles that had seen other prospects shifted to the "sporadic playing time at whatever position someone needs a day off at" duty (see Vargas, Jheremy). Then this season, they picked him for a spot at Wisconsin over the more highly touted Guilarte, handed him the shortstop job and never looked back. How many prospects do you think would fall under the "figure prominently into the team's future plans" heading? Because I think you could make a good case Barrios is on the same tier as Adams, Di Turi, Pena, Made and Boeve as far as infielders go.