CheeseheadInQC

You beat my Laynce Nix. I think .07 was my low too. I believe it was for Bill Spiers for Brewers/Mets.

Nice to see Areinamo keeping getting hits. For a while it seemed every time he crossed the .700 OPS mark he would struggle for a couple games and fall backward.

It’s weird, There are I believe five minor league free agents among the high A and AA bullpens in the same situation Ward was. While on paper there might be a fair amount of competition for the double-A bullpen next season, there is a lot of time before next regular season starts.

If my calculations are correct, he allowed a .08 ISO, .03 lower than league average. He allowed a .298 BABIP, which I believe is also below average. So while without Statcast data it is impossible to know with certainty the quality of the contact, the available data makes it likelier than not that the quality of contact against him was poorer than average for the DSL. Is that hedged and qualified enough? In my opinion, organization signals mean a lot when it comes to the DSL, and these two are among the four pitchers from this year’s signing group who started the year with a spot in the rotation, kept it and didn’t get hurt. That, along with solid stats, makes them interesting sleepers. I don’t think you can make the case for more, but it is something.

I imagine that Fernandez is coming back. I believe Ward was going to be a minor league free agent at year’s end, which meant there was no guarantee he would be back next year anyway.

Take the specifics with a grain of salt because my hand counting produced slightly different results in one case so I must have messed up somewhere: Quero vs. Frelick was the closest race in the top five, very tight the whole way Wilken vs. Gasser and Uribe vs. Rodriguez were also very close The rest of them had a 10-point spread at least in my count (once again, no guarantees of accuracy) O'Rae led most of the way for the 20th spot but the later ballots weren't as kind and he ended up second in the also receiving votes category behind Moore 34 players tallied votes, which is more than I expected. Edwin Jimenez, Demetrio Nadal, Jadher Areinamo, Melvin Hernandez and Jesus Rivero (that one was me) each got one vote, with the latter three each getting a single point. Hendry Mendez got four votes, all 20th. Juan Baez, Freddy Zamora, Cam Devanney, Matthew Wood, Patricio Aquino, and Hedbert Perez also received votes. Best prospects in my opinion not to receive a vote: Di Turi and Low.

With apologies to the DSL guys and, because I think in a normal year he would have made the top 20, Patricio Aquino, most of sleeper starter prospects fall into one of three categories: 1. They've been good, but not grab you by the shirt collar and demand you take notice good Tyler Woessner Edwin Jimenez Nate Peterson If I wrote this two days ago, Alexander Vallecillo would have fallen here as well 2. Love the strikeouts, love the occasional domination. Now, about those walks ... Jesus Rivero Quinton Low Daniel Corniel 3. Well, injuries wasted that year Brandon Knarr Joseph Hernandez Adam Seminaris Brian Fitzpatrick Plus basically an entire ACL rotation's worth of players How you view prospects probably will determine which you rank highest as a group. I'm a sucker for upside pitching, so I'd go with 2. One of the guys who doesn't fit neatly into any of those categories is Alexander Cornielle. I mention him for two reasons. First, I very much still consider him a sleeper prospect (the peripherals are better than the results this year). And second, so I can include this bizarre tidbit I found. Only two full-season starting pitchers in the Brewers system have had more balls hit to the opposite field against them than pulled this year. One is Jacob Misiorowski, which makes sense given his fastball reaches triple figures with stunning regularity. He hasn't had the highest percentage of balls hit the other way, however. In fact, it's not even really close. Cornielle has had 45% of the balls put in play against him hit to the opposite field. That's not only tops among the Brewers full season starters, it's tops among full-season starters throughout the minor leagues. I have no idea if this portends good or ill for Cornielle's chances of reaching the big leagues, but it is the kind of random thing I find fascinating.

@clancyphile Are these recaps of players you selected before the season or fresh picks?

Jackson Chourio Well, that was a good monthJeferson Quero I probably still have him closer to No. 1 than mostSal Frelick More a reflection on how high I am on Quero than anything about FrelickJacob Misiorowski Great ceiling, but it might take a little timeTyler Black Just keeps hittingRobert Gasser Has really turned it on at a very hitter-friendly levelCarlos F Rodriguez Needs to trim the walks, but not really getting hit at double-ALuke Adams I get some of the concerns, but guys who hit this well, this young have a tendency to at least get to the big leaguesBrock Wilken So far so good.Yophery Rodriguez Among the DSL's best hittersJosh Knoth Still bizarrely confident about this pickLuis Lara Tailing off slightly, and there are some upside concerns, but that hit tool ...Cooper Pratt Gotten off to a good start so far in ArizonaAbner Uribe Once again, the reliever gets dinged for being a relieverEric Brown Jr More a function of other guys moving up.Mike Boeve I was skeptical, but maybe the Tyler Black comparison one poster made has some chance of proving accurate.Logan Henderson If he can stay healthy ...Bradley Blalock Seems to have solid upside. Nice trade pickupPatricio Aquino Keeps chugging along, striking guys out.Jesus Rivero Love the strikeouts and how difficult he has been to hit. Now about those walks ... Bumped up Boeve in a big way for his early performance (I think I had him mid-to-late 30s after the draft). Based upon the college scouting reports, I was worried he would end up like Dustin Demuth, a solid minor leaguer but not one who stood out enough in any area to ascend to the higher levels of prospectdom. Seems there might be more there than that. It came down to eight players for the final two spots, with a couple of guys I ranked last time, Low and Cornielle, being the first eliminated, As usual, when in doubt I went with pitching, picking Aquino and Rivero over Mendez, Guilarte, Bitonti, and Di Turi.

If you are going to toss out guys having poor statistical seasons like Warren and Valerio, you might as well toss in Barrios. He is young for the Carolina League, doesn’t strike out much and leads the team in at-bats (so the Brewers still clearly believe in him). If he can find playing time in the crowded Mudcats infield next season, I could still see him breaking out.

Wouldn’t the boring but easy answer be whoever gets sent down when Rowdy comes back?

Is it? It seems like Hiura’s season gives him more reason to rail against the fates than the Brewers organization. Right about the time he might have been considered for a call up, he gets hurt. Then he comes back and scuffles out of the gate. Then when he rights the ship, there is a guy hitting better, with more positional versatility, and already on the 40-man. You can argue about whether the Brewers gave Winker too long of a leash, but the fact is, Hiura was unlikely to be the beneficiary even if they did cut bait earlier.

I think they might have just added the draft picks in without reordering the rest.

They brought him back last year when he was a minor league free agent after a mediocre offensive season as an A ball backup. If you are a quality defensive catcher with plus intangibles, which it sounds like he is, you are given time for the offense to come around.

1. It was 40+ which is basically a 42.5 since they don’t have 40- that I am aware of. 2. They also give risk degree as a metric with the high risk players more likely to exceed expectations or fall well short while the low ones are expected to be pretty much at that level. Blalock is high. Sometimes those 40-level A ballers progress. You stack as many of those guys as you can, especially ones you think are underrated, and work to develop them into 50+ guys. 3. Saving money is a benefit, but so is getting the prospects.

So were the trades to the Brewers salary dumps too since he was rated above Severino and Jarvis? There’s also a difference between a 40 low risk triple A guy and a high risk 40 pitcher in A ball with a lot of upward (and downward) variance in possible results.

Think Smith gets bumped to Biloxi? He might be one of the better current relief prospects.

Pham probably would have gotten a Candelario-like return if it were just about stats. I feel like I don’t have enough info one way or another to speak to whether they should have made that move or not. It would be interesting to know what it would have taken to get Candelario. I wouldn’t have been opposed to a similar package, but Made, based on the scouting reports I have read, feels like a guy who could have outlier evaluations

I think Blalock immediately moves into 2nd most likely to be protected. It sounds like he is more refined than Cornielle and has a collection of pitches more likely to play up in a relief role than Jimenez. Devanney, Campbell and Collins seem to fall into the category of someone might give them a 40-man spot if they were a minor league free agent like the Brewers did with Perkins. Part of the appeal, however would be having optionable depth, which obviously doesn’t work with Rule 5. Devanney is probably the most likely to get protected or picked because he can, you know, play shortstop. Too much of Zamora’s value is tied into an at this point theoretical possibility of gaining consistency and becoming a plus defender at short. Until that happens, I can’t see the Brewers protecting him or anyone picking him.

It will be interesting where he is after they truly update their rankings. If he is still 15 after that, with the likely upward climbs of Adams and Rodriguez and the addition of the draft picks, that will mean something. Regardless, it seems as if the Brewers got a higher ranked prospect for Urias than they gave up for Santana and Canha.

No one is paying for rental hitters, even with the scarcity. This Cubs package seems by far the best, and even then it might come with a bit of an asterisk given both guys are Rule 5 eligible.

Weren’t you upset about not getting the Cron/Grichuck package? Is there really any difference between that and Santana/Canha?

Not bad, especially if the Brewers had decided they weren’t going to protect Jarvis.

Well, if the Angels have one of the best offers out, I think their best tradable prospect still in the minors, per Fangraphs, is a decent Lara comp. That would kind of set a ceiling on where the bidding is now.

It feels like so much is going to be down to internal evaluations. How much of Rowdy’s decline was injury-related and is he going to be fully healthy? If you think he is going to get back to his hitting of last year and early this year he is probably the best of the lackluster DH market. Who is more likely to regain last year’s form, Urias or Tim Anderson? Can you count on Brian Anderson to come back and at least provide a floor should Monasterio and Toro’s hot streaks come to an end?