CheeseheadInQC

My go at it QB (2): Love, Clifford Duh RB (3): Jones, Dillon, Taylor Taylor edges out Wilson based on special teams and general steadiness. Could drop to two if they pick up a tight end in the cuts WR (6): Watson, Doubs, Reed, Heath, Wicks, Toure Dubose might push Toure. I can't see them keeping 7. Too many other teams have passable bottom of the depth chart receivers getting cut. TE (3): Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara Could at minimum see them using how light the depth chart as an incentive to get another team's cut to accept their practice squad offer over others. OL (9): Bakhtiari, Tom, Jenkins, Runyan, Myers, Nijman, Walker, Rhyan, Jones Jones vs. Newman for one spot unless they keep 10. With Tom's versatility, I think they go upside. DL (6): Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Wooden, Brooks, Ford Ford is on the bubble, but the fact guys his size sometimes take extra time to develop I think pushes them to keep 6 Edge (6): Gary, Smith, Van Ness, Enagbare, Hollins, Cox Cox gets one of the last spots ILB (5): Campbell, Walker, McDuffie, Wilson, Carpenter Carpenter squarely on bubble, but gets final roster spot over 11th DB and 10 OL CB (5): Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, Valentine, Ballentine Until Stokes comes back. Gaines would have made it if I kept 11 DBs S (5): Savage, Ford, Owens, Johnson, Leavitt Leavitt might as well be listed as a fourth special teamer. Especially given the injury situation, I think Owens edges Moore for the last safety spot (Johnson I think has shown enough where the fact none of the veterans are under contract for next season works in his favor). ST (3): Carlson, O'Donnell, Orzech O'Donnell's holding makes the difference

In senior league, if a pitcher was struggling to throw strikes, our coach would have the whole team take a strike. Chafin is approaching take two strikes territory

I think there’s a good chance Rhyan is the top guard backup either way. The question is, are they comfortable with him being the only interior backup without moving Tom?

You beat my Laynce Nix. I think .07 was my low too. I believe it was for Bill Spiers for Brewers/Mets.

Nice to see Areinamo keeping getting hits. For a while it seemed every time he crossed the .700 OPS mark he would struggle for a couple games and fall backward.

It’s weird, There are I believe five minor league free agents among the high A and AA bullpens in the same situation Ward was. While on paper there might be a fair amount of competition for the double-A bullpen next season, there is a lot of time before next regular season starts.

If my calculations are correct, he allowed a .08 ISO, .03 lower than league average. He allowed a .298 BABIP, which I believe is also below average. So while without Statcast data it is impossible to know with certainty the quality of the contact, the available data makes it likelier than not that the quality of contact against him was poorer than average for the DSL. Is that hedged and qualified enough? In my opinion, organization signals mean a lot when it comes to the DSL, and these two are among the four pitchers from this year’s signing group who started the year with a spot in the rotation, kept it and didn’t get hurt. That, along with solid stats, makes them interesting sleepers. I don’t think you can make the case for more, but it is something.

I imagine that Fernandez is coming back. I believe Ward was going to be a minor league free agent at year’s end, which meant there was no guarantee he would be back next year anyway.

To be fair, that Rockies team’s average hitter is roughly as old as the average Timber Rattlers hitter (oldest in ACL) and their average pitcher is older than the average Mudcats pitcher (third oldest in ACL).

A Double-A catcher would be more attractive to trade partners this offseason.

Don’t restart the how tall is Tyler Black debate. I have also seen Chourio listed as 6-1 some places as well. With some it is a matter of who develops better as well. 6-foot plus Barrios and Severino got more money than Lara and a lot more than Baez. I believe Gregory Barrios was a bigger money signing than Areinamo and Luis Medina got more than Quero.

Yep, and honestly, with the strikeout totals he has posted, it wouldn’t be shocking if Smith ended up becoming a passable late blooming bullpen arm. Not something I am predicting or counting on, but not outside the realm of possibility either. If only injuries hadn’t hit Vire so hard. Was interested to see if he could make some strides.

Take the specifics with a grain of salt because my hand counting produced slightly different results in one case so I must have messed up somewhere: Quero vs. Frelick was the closest race in the top five, very tight the whole way Wilken vs. Gasser and Uribe vs. Rodriguez were also very close The rest of them had a 10-point spread at least in my count (once again, no guarantees of accuracy) O'Rae led most of the way for the 20th spot but the later ballots weren't as kind and he ended up second in the also receiving votes category behind Moore 34 players tallied votes, which is more than I expected. Edwin Jimenez, Demetrio Nadal, Jadher Areinamo, Melvin Hernandez and Jesus Rivero (that one was me) each got one vote, with the latter three each getting a single point. Hendry Mendez got four votes, all 20th. Juan Baez, Freddy Zamora, Cam Devanney, Matthew Wood, Patricio Aquino, and Hedbert Perez also received votes. Best prospects in my opinion not to receive a vote: Di Turi and Low.

You knew after all that he was either going to strike out on three pitches or walk it off

With apologies to the DSL guys and, because I think in a normal year he would have made the top 20, Patricio Aquino, most of sleeper starter prospects fall into one of three categories: 1. They've been good, but not grab you by the shirt collar and demand you take notice good Tyler Woessner Edwin Jimenez Nate Peterson If I wrote this two days ago, Alexander Vallecillo would have fallen here as well 2. Love the strikeouts, love the occasional domination. Now, about those walks ... Jesus Rivero Quinton Low Daniel Corniel 3. Well, injuries wasted that year Brandon Knarr Joseph Hernandez Adam Seminaris Brian Fitzpatrick Plus basically an entire ACL rotation's worth of players How you view prospects probably will determine which you rank highest as a group. I'm a sucker for upside pitching, so I'd go with 2. One of the guys who doesn't fit neatly into any of those categories is Alexander Cornielle. I mention him for two reasons. First, I very much still consider him a sleeper prospect (the peripherals are better than the results this year). And second, so I can include this bizarre tidbit I found. Only two full-season starting pitchers in the Brewers system have had more balls hit to the opposite field against them than pulled this year. One is Jacob Misiorowski, which makes sense given his fastball reaches triple figures with stunning regularity. He hasn't had the highest percentage of balls hit the other way, however. In fact, it's not even really close. Cornielle has had 45% of the balls put in play against him hit to the opposite field. That's not only tops among the Brewers full season starters, it's tops among full-season starters throughout the minor leagues. I have no idea if this portends good or ill for Cornielle's chances of reaching the big leagues, but it is the kind of random thing I find fascinating.

@clancyphile Are these recaps of players you selected before the season or fresh picks?

Jackson Chourio Well, that was a good monthJeferson Quero I probably still have him closer to No. 1 than mostSal Frelick More a reflection on how high I am on Quero than anything about FrelickJacob Misiorowski Great ceiling, but it might take a little timeTyler Black Just keeps hittingRobert Gasser Has really turned it on at a very hitter-friendly levelCarlos F Rodriguez Needs to trim the walks, but not really getting hit at double-ALuke Adams I get some of the concerns, but guys who hit this well, this young have a tendency to at least get to the big leaguesBrock Wilken So far so good.Yophery Rodriguez Among the DSL's best hittersJosh Knoth Still bizarrely confident about this pickLuis Lara Tailing off slightly, and there are some upside concerns, but that hit tool ...Cooper Pratt Gotten off to a good start so far in ArizonaAbner Uribe Once again, the reliever gets dinged for being a relieverEric Brown Jr More a function of other guys moving up.Mike Boeve I was skeptical, but maybe the Tyler Black comparison one poster made has some chance of proving accurate.Logan Henderson If he can stay healthy ...Bradley Blalock Seems to have solid upside. Nice trade pickupPatricio Aquino Keeps chugging along, striking guys out.Jesus Rivero Love the strikeouts and how difficult he has been to hit. Now about those walks ... Bumped up Boeve in a big way for his early performance (I think I had him mid-to-late 30s after the draft). Based upon the college scouting reports, I was worried he would end up like Dustin Demuth, a solid minor leaguer but not one who stood out enough in any area to ascend to the higher levels of prospectdom. Seems there might be more there than that. It came down to eight players for the final two spots, with a couple of guys I ranked last time, Low and Cornielle, being the first eliminated, As usual, when in doubt I went with pitching, picking Aquino and Rivero over Mendez, Guilarte, Bitonti, and Di Turi.

If you are going to toss out guys having poor statistical seasons like Warren and Valerio, you might as well toss in Barrios. He is young for the Carolina League, doesn’t strike out much and leads the team in at-bats (so the Brewers still clearly believe in him). If he can find playing time in the crowded Mudcats infield next season, I could still see him breaking out.

Yah, Alastre is just my pick to be the next Areinamo/Baez ACL breakout.

I'd make the case that it has already been erased to a degree. First, outside of Arcia, the Brewers history since from the time they restarted the DSL program until about 2018 wasn't bad. It was mind-numbingly awful. The only hitters to have played played in this incarnation of the Brewers' DSL squad and posted above average offensive seasons in low-A ball prior to 2021 (Joantgel Segovia and Sthervin Matos) both did so in their fifth season in the organization. Outside of Arcia, I don't believe any got close to average at high-A. Even a guy like Areinamo, a back half of the top 30 player, probably would have, at this point in his career, been the clear No. 1 prospect from his signing class in each of those years except the Arcia one. This points to a significant problem in one or, more likely, both of the following areas: scouting and the early development of Latin American players. Now, they have among the best performing 20-, 19- and 18-year old hitters in full-season ball, all international signings and all with scouting reports to back up the stats. They have clearly improved by leaps and bounds in both those areas. I believe that Chourio and Quero have reached the point where they are no longer international prospects or DSL prospects and are now just prospects. The talent is clearly there, so the scouting worked, and they are top 100 prospects in double-A so clearly the initial development worked. If they fail now, it rests firmly on the shoulders of the Brewers' upper-level development staff, not the scouts and not the DSL staff. I no longer see any reason to be more skeptical of the Brewers' international prospects than any other team's, outside of maybe development juggernauts like the Dodgers and the Rays.

Among the A ball and lower guys, I would toss in Yerlin Rodriguez (big time velocity and seems to be on an upward trajectory) and Luiyin Alastre (seems to rarely swing and miss and the ISO is at least passable if not great).

A top prospect no. He'd still fall into the interesting sleeper category for me though, similar to Jace Avina. June was his best month since he moved to full-season ball ... and then he gets hurt. We'll have to wait to see if it was something that he can build on or a fluke. The Brewers also kind of announced that Perez was a prospect to watch when they added him to the alternate site roster before he played a professional game. I would make two main counterpoints 1. A lot of prospects, even top prospects, flame out. MLB Pipeline had Perez 3 in the system in 2021. Ethan Small and Mario Feliciano were 4 and 5. 2. Rodriguez and Mendez perhaps aside because of their absurd career-opening seasons, this site tends to be a trailing indicator on big DSL hype prospects lately. Quero and Lara both were higher on outside lists after great instructs performances before their breakouts, and Chourio was as well after his middling start, great finish DSL season,

At the same time, wouldn’t that kind of be like saying “Jake Gatewood didn’t turn out so don’t rank Bitonti.” I can see some of your arguments. Personally, I somewhat discount stats of guys repeating the DSL. That’s not to say Nadal couldn’t be good (he was good enough last year where he likely would have been stateside had the Brewers still had two ACL teams), but the advantage of that extra season at that age group is big enough that I am not going to rank him for his stats. I also have learned my lesson about ranking DSL guys minus scouting reports (Jhonnys Cabrera), so I generally will only rank the higher profile guys since we have honest to goodness scouting reports on them, leaving the others for the sleepers list (Juan Baez’s breakout was one of the few things I got right from my predictions). That said, those rules would be for any team. The Brewers’ past lack of success has absolutely nothing to do with them.

Because every prospect should be expected to work out … Also, of the 168 players with at least 100 plate appearances in the Midwest League this season, Mendez is the second youngest and is I believe one day older than the youngest. Way too soon to be saying he is a failed prospect.

Substitute Low and Cornielle for Woessner (barely missed) and Rudy and I am right there with you. I was trying to come up with the best hitting prospect not on the list. Devanney? Avina or the now unfortunately injured Perez given how they rebounded from slow starts? The third best hitting prospect on the DSL squads?