CheeseheadInQC

I would imagine signing him would follow an Adames trade. At that point, who would be the backup shortstop? I don’t know that they trust Monasterio there. Miller’s not really a shortstop. Capra is listed by Fangraphs as a DH to tell you what they think of his defense. If you don’t get a big league ready shortstop prospect back in a trade, I think they probably sign someone as a backup/insurance for Turang. IKF is probably about as good as it gets based on who is out there unless you think Yonny Hernandez is breaking out.

I kind of figured that they would come away with one more outfielder as well instead of losing one. As big as the outfield glut is in the big leagues and triple-A, there isn't a ton there numbers-wise once you get past that. Right now, unless someone who should be at triple-A is held back (probably Collins or Campbell), the Biloxi outfield likely has Rodriguez and Sparks. Doston would probably be the third starter. The options for a fourth outfielder include resuming the Felix Valerio or Ernesto Martinez in the outfield experiments or shifting Jose Acosta out there essentially full time. High-A is I guess a little better. They have Lara, Fernandez and then a lot of question marks about starting in Wisconsin or Carolina (Perez, Castillo, O'Rae, Nicasia). At the start of the offseason I wouldn't have been shocked if they all started in Carolina, but at least starting two of them in Wisconsin doesn't seem like quite as big of a stretch.

If you are just looking at guys who pitched a significant number of innings last season, like it seems was done here, Henderson is the obvious choice. I will, however, say I wouldn’t be shocked if Knoth sees Wisconsin by year’s end, and I am fully expecting it with Birchard and Yoho. Among the DSL guys, I think Flores might be first in line for the late season Carolina cameo given he has an extra year of experience. His combination of strikeouts and ground ball rate last year was Ashby-esque.

Kind of agree with the general sentiment here that Pratt and Rodriguez are the obvious answers while Norman and Nadal are less likely. For Norman it's because he really needs to find a way to make it work at catcher, which will both slow him down naturally as well as the focus that it will require might slow the progress of his bat. You simply can't extrapolate a DH-worthy bat solely from stats in the hitter-friendly ACL. For Nadal, I don't trust DSL hitting stats from guys repeating the level. While he is a slightly different case in that the ACL consolidation probably was to blame for him not making the jump stateside last year, I still wouldn't put him as any more likely to make a two-level jump over the course of the season than the guys who had better stats in their first seasons than he had as a DSL rookie like Ibarguen, Di Turi or Alastre. If I had to choose a third one, I'd go O'Rae over Baez for the very reason I slightly prefer Baez as a prospect. O'Rae's biggest negative is always going to be his biggest negative. He's not going to be held back while trying to develop power. Once he shows that his strengths are still strengths at the new level and that they are enough for his bat to still be plus, he's likely going to get moved up. Baez, they might hold back as they try to develop a bit more selective of an approach.

Unless they really like the long term upside of someone, I doubt they take a hitter. They have enough 40-man spots to play with, though, where taking a pitcher wouldn't surprise me at all. I've already made my case elsewhere for an Evan Reifert reunion, but Seymour is another intriguing option in the realm of Rays who probably wouldn't be available if they had stayed healthy. If I'd have to guess I'd say no Brewers get picked, but if they do, I think they'd go for Myers, if a team thinks his stuff will play up in the bullpen, or Devanney, if they just want to come out of the draft with a utility infielder (none of the other options really have had more triple-A success than he has). I don't know if McKendry is seen as having the upside where a team would grab him without the luxury of being able to option him. Longer shots: Zamora (dearth of true shortstops with double-A experience in the draft), Carlos Rodriguez (coming off the strong winter league performance), Isaac Collins (would be at a higher tier if he could be more of a true utility infielder), Justin Yeager. Really long shots, but make me slightly nervous because I am high on them: Harold Chirino and Alexander Cornielle. I'd imagine at the least there is a bit of shuffling in the triple-A phase. The Brewers could use additional high-A catching and outfield depth. And on the other side, there are a number of at least mildly intriguing guys, including at least one or two former top-30 prospects, who I could see the team leaving unprotected.

Really good listen

It wouldn’t shock me if we are talking about Knoth and Rodriguez as top 100 prospects this time next year.

My general rule is don't get too excited about relievers until they reach AA. I'll occasionally break it either because of amazing scouting reports like Uribe or just kind of on a hunch like Reifert or sort of Shane Smith before his promotion. In general, though, I try to hold expectations down. That being said, I find the way the Brewers have assembled some of these lower level bullpens utterly fascinating. They have this bizarre assemblage of Indy Ball veterans, undrafted free agents and Ex-DSLers who put up mediocre to poor stats their first two years in the system. If this were 10-15 years ago, I would have thought they were filling a bunch of roster vacancies with cannon fodder because, well, someone had to eat the bullpen innings. Probably still would with some other organizations. With the current Brewers system, though, it feels far more intentional than that. It seems like the Brewers have made a conscious decision that this is the best way to get potential major leaguers out of the minor league relief corps. Hopefully the guys on this list and others not mentioned continue to make this look like a smart move. Regardless, I'll be here paying attention, because like I said, utterly fascinating.

Chapman is almost certainly going to get more, but that’s neither here nor there. If you still have Chourio, you are still going to be paying Chourio during that stretch, less if he flops but more if he hits big. Also, Chourio’s deal, if it is like most of these, will mimic the typical salary scale, so those first two years will be the cheapest. This deal might add a million or so to the payroll over those two years.

With the contract they gave him, I wonder if they envision Martinez starting.

Some interesting arms here. One will most likely end up on my sleepers list. The goal, as always, is to have enough minor league depth where they don’t feel compelled to make an ill-advised trade for a reliever at the deadline.

Did I miss something? Heyman's reasoning seems to be that with Burnes, the Brewers would still be among the favorites to win the division and that the Brewers have resisted the notion of a full tear down. He didn't even site what he was hearing, did he? Regardless, it has felt to me like the Brewers were open to trading him but didn't feel compelled to do so. Not sure this messaging is much different.

List of starters, along with the two the Cardinals already signed, they have at 1-2 years and $8-13M AAV: Seth Lugo, Mike Clevinger, Kenta Maeda, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, Wade Miley, James Paxton, Martin Perez, Frankie Montas, Jake Odorizzi. It will be interesting to see how many actually fall into that band. Regardless, I could easily see the Brewers shopping in this tier.

For what it is worth, the Fangraphs crowd sourced predictions had Gibson spot on. They have Severino 1/10, which seems plausible. I think you are going to see a lot of pitchers in the 9-12 million AAV for 1-2 years range.

I guess my main issue is this leaves them dangerously thin at short both this year and next unless Brown takes a big leap forward this summer.

Unless he is lumped in with the relievers, I'd include Jesus Rivero here. Definite breakout season. Also, I know the ACL numbers are mediocre at best, but I'd include Yorman Galindez, too. Pretty much all the starters' ACL numbers were bad, and he pitched well in Carolina to end the season.

Wasn’t this expected? I don’t know that I would do it, but $10 million was the Fangraphs projection for him.

I probably should have combined the two deals and taken out Wroblewski. My opinion is, though, if they deal all three, I’d prefer two of the three main pieces to be pitchers, and that is unlikely to come from the Orioles.

Yah, I basically just tossed a name in the DH spot, figuring it would be a rotation.

OK, let me start by saying this: I don't necessarily think this is what the Brewers should do or will do. However, I wanted to try to put together a scenario in which the Brewers treat 2024 like the first and last years of a rebuild at the same time: trading Burnes, Adames and Williams but also adding "what if we're a year ahead of schedule pieces" that, if they are performing well can be dealt at the deadline if the club isn't. I was hoping to bring back another upper level infield bat in a trade, but the fits weren't exceptional (I did come close to changing the second and third pieces of the Orioles deal to include Norby). So in the end I loaded up on pitching, figuring it is usually easier to trade excess pitching for value than excess hitting. Trades: Burnes to the Dodgers for Pepiot, River Ryan and Joendry Vargas Williams to the Orioles for Joey Ortiz, Chayce McDermott and Braylin Tavera Adames and Janson Junk (clearing out a triple-A rotation spot) to the Dodgers for Nick Frasso, Justin Wroblewski and a PTBNL (Yeiner Fernandez if he isn't picked in the Rule 5 draft) Free Agent Acquisitions: Rhys Hoskins (1-year, $17 million) Luis Severino (1-year, $14 million) Victor Caratini (1-year, $7 million) Rule 5 draft: Bring Back Evan Reifert Notes: Depending upon spring training, Chourio could bump Taylor to Perkins' spot and Perkins to triple-A New Triple-A rotation: Nick Frasso Carlos Rodriguez River Ryan Chayce McDermott Aaron Ashby (putting him in triple-A until he proves he is back) C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($17.00M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) RF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) DH: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M) Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.7M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Victor Caratini ($7.00M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Luis Severino ($12.00M) SP3: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP4: Ryan Pepiot ($0.77M) SP5: Robert Gasser ($0.77M) CL: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Evan Reifert ($0.77M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Colin Rea ($3.50M) Payroll is 31.80% under budget

What if they instead spend it on a pitcher to, you know, replace Woodruff?

I was just figuring with Bitonti likely there, too, there would be days where both would probably be playing the field. Unless Bitonti gets first base time.

Look back at the history of baseball. It has nothing to do with analytics.

It sounds like Baez is probably best at 3rd, but I still think he will likely see some time at 2nd or short just because of the likely roster construction at Carolina.

5 at-bats short of their cut-off if I remember correctly.