CheeseheadInQC

It was so close to the teams signing every single top-10 round pick this year. The Cardinals' 10th rounder looks to be the only one that didn't sign, and even he apparently agreed before changing his mind. Wonder what happened there.

I was figuring maybe 14. Thought they might get one of the 11-20 high schoolers. Hopefully one or two of these guys can blossom like Adams did this year or, on the pitching side, like a certain part of one of our lesser deadline deals.

Wow. Just wow. Did not expect this when the draft happened.

From a logistical standpoint after the draft, I think the depth at the lower levels is in the infield. Guilarte, Areinamo, Barrios, Baez, O’Rae, Severino, etc. I would include Adams, but I think he has vaulted into a different tier and I am not interested in dealing him for a Cron or Grichuck type that I see as the likeliest acquisitions.

He is having one of the top 10 offensive seasons relative to level for a 19 year old this year, arguably top 5. And considering the top three are in no particular order Chourio, Holliday and Caminero, that is pretty good.

I think the only international player the Brewers have signed for millions plural is Lara. Chourio is next at roughly what Bitonti just signed for. I believe Quero got less than everyone in the top 10 other than the senior signs in rounds 7-10. The international pool is slightly more than half of what the draft pool is and probably close to half when you account for the 11-20 $150,000 guys. The Brewers currently have arguably one of the top 3 hitting seasons in the minors among 18 (Lara), 19 (Chourio) and 20 year olds (Quero). The solution was always to get better at scouting and developing in the international market, not abandon it. It seems like the Brewers have done just that.

Man, I remember watching Neugebauer’s debut. Biggest what if in an era of what ifs for Brewers pitching prospects.

If the Brewers trade Mendez it will be because of the return, not Miller. 1. Mendez is one of just 11 teenagers to get at least 50 at bats at high-A or above this season. Of those, he has the lowest K rate. 2. Injuries and other issues have actually left the Brewers without a ton of organizational outfield depth. There has been plenty of outfield time available throughout the year if the Brewers wanted to move Miller. The fact that they haven’t shows it isn’t a priority, definitely not one worth dealing the organization’s No. 5 outfield prospect.

Legitimately shocked by the dollar amounts here. Hopefully they can get a few more of the later picks signed

Is it possible the guy with nine big league plate appearances this year is the best player in the Wong-Winker trade? And yah, the Brewers made out OK getting Peguero as well. Back on topic, I am still bullish on Mendez. I think he figures out a way to turn enough ground balls into line drives for his profile to play.

The power has come back but he is striking out more and walking less than even May or June. That concerns me.

This article for me kind of indicates why dealing for a bat is going to be tough. Donovan is going to be the most expensive, and unless the Brewers are willing to give up Peralta or Misiorowski, I don’t know if there is a match (maybe if you deal both Gasser and Rodriguez, but I am not sure). Plus who knows if he will actually be able to play in the field again this season. Rooker has managed to have his strikeout and walk rates get worse each month. Vaughn is an interesting idea if the White Sox are just wanting to move on and the prospects involved reflect that. If not, however, you are looking at paying for years of control that you won’t want at higher prices unless his play significantly improves. Given the difference in prospect capital possibly needed, it almost would be better if he was a rental.

The good news: Statcast has him as basically the same player as last year. The bad news: They also have him as not as good as his stats last year. He seems like the type of guy who is likely to be about the 20th best first baseman in the league for the next couple of years. An improvement for the Brewers, but possibly not good enough to pay the premium it would take to pry him away from the Mariners.

Don't forget Toro, who is sporting a .333 ISO in July and can make a convincing case to be the hot hand.

I don't think that this gets anywhere near as close as this chart suggests for a number of reasons: 1. I don't like speaking ill of prospects, especially ones that I once was really high on like Valerio, but putting any number next to him right now is wishful thinking. I know he is still young, but he doesn't really have a good defensive home, his offense has plateaued, he is a year from minor league free agency and he has lost much of his playing time, including to guys who aren't really considered top prospects. He is unfortunately probably closer to being a guy left exposed in the AAA phase of the rule 5 draft than someone who brings a positive trade value at this point. He needs to start hitting again before he'd have any value, and there is not enough time before the deadline for that to happen in a sufficient quantity. 2. I don't know that this is properly valuing Soto. Fangraphs in one of their trade value articles made the case that the value of a superstar to a team is greater than the projected WAR/contract size analysis that these types of sites do. I sort of agree with them, especially if it isn't taking into account the fact that increased revenues would offset part of the contract, maybe not to Ohtani levels, but definitely a non-negligible amount. 3. This isn't just about what a "fair" offer is from a numbers perspective from the Brewers. They would be bidding against other teams. Those would include larger market clubs for whom not only would the contract size not be an issue, but they'd also have a season+ to convince him to re-sign, which adds value that wouldn't be there for Milwaukee. 4. You are also bidding against a minimum that the Padres would take for him. As awkwardly constructed as that team was, they still have the third best run differential in the NL right now and are absolutely built to be a win-now team. Even if they throw in the towel for this season and trade the impending free agents, they could always plug the gaps and hope to get different results running it back. The incentive isn't really there for them to take a "fair" offer just because it is "fair."

I agree with you that McMahon would be pricier than expected but I don’t think having two of your worst case scenarios (while obviously ignoring the superstars) include a guy who very well might still end up having a better career than McMahon and a pitcher who almost certainly would have had injuries not struck helps your case the way you think it does.

Just because it is a thing that interests me, while none were incredibly close, Henderson, Zamora and Mendez were next. Players with one vote included, I think, Cornielle, Birchard, Jimenez and Severino. I’d go with Prado as best not to receive a vote, but there are certainly other good candidates for that title, too.

Good to see Wichrowski and Timmerman given they have had some surprising 11-20 non-signings in past years.

McMahon for me falls into that weird zone of being not good enough to deal a king’s ransom for but too good and controllable for too long for the Rockies to accept anything less. I don’t think Chourio would be the ask, but it would be substantial, I imagine.

I get that. There are things to be concerned about there, like the pop up issue and the less than ideal line drive rate, and I did have him in a tier that went down to 16. It just feels like he has ended up a bit under the radar for someone putting up thus far, offensively at least, the best first full season for a Brewers high school pick in at least 15 years.

I think Adams might be a bit underrated. His stats would fit right in with the non-Holliday first round prep hitters from last draft.

Quite the offensive explosion from the Mudcats

If he comes cheap, which I am guessing he would, Grichuck wouldn’t be awful. Not an impact bat but at least a marginal upgrade.

Jeferson Quero I'll be that guy. This isn't a knock on Chourio as much as I'm just that high on Quero. Everything about his profile screams longtime big leaguer, and it is very promising that he took his one knock at the plate, drawing walks, and made a ton of progress in-season.Jackson Chourio I'm not down on Chourio. He is still absurdly young for his level and has amazing tools. How good he is at making the adjustments that this year has shown he needs will determine just how close to his sky high ceiling he gets.Jacob Misiorowski Having seen one of his lesser outings probably didn't help him in the three-way race for the top spot here. If he can manage to consistently command that arsenal ... wow.Sal Frelick A bit of a lost year so far, hopefully he can turn it around in the second halfTyler Black The nervousness over where he plays keeps me from ranking him any higher.Robert Gasser Has righted the ship, and looking like a big league starter while in AAA will go a long way in my rankings.Luis Lara Upside is a question, but he is still 18 and has the third lowest swinging strike rate in the Carolina league, trailing two guys each four or more years his senior.Carlos F Rodriguez We'll see if the command evens out once the sticky ball experiment is done. If it does, he might leap Gasser to the No. 6 spot.Luke Adams While the recent slump has dropped it a bit, has a really low swinging strike rate for a 19-year-old with power in A ball. More line drives would be nice, but he has exceeded expectations so far.Josh Knoth As I said in the draft thread, this is the pick I am most excited about.Yophery Rodriguez I have a feeling this is either five spots too high or five spots too low. I'm beginning to think it is the latter.Brock Wilken If he hits enough to get to the power, I don't care if he has to move to firstHendry Mendez When he is at his best he is spraying line drives all of the field. He needs to be more consistent about it, but he is still really advanced for his age.Cooper Pratt A surprising and very promising pickEric Brown Jr Has been solid considering the injuries have kept him from really getting into a groove. Abner Uribe If he can command that stuff, the Brewers have another dominant relieverPatricio Aquino This is the dropoff point, but when in doubt I go with a young pitcher putting up good numbersQuinton Low Raw, but the stuff sounds electric. Hopefully he can shake off some of the recent control problems.Alexander Cornielle His peripherals point to him being as good as last year even if the ERA doesn't. Hopefully a second half bounce-back is coming.Daniel Guilarte When healthy, it seemed like some of the ground balls were starting to turn into line drives, a very good development. The only clear-cut decisions for me were Frelick 4, Black 5, and, mostly, Carlos Rodriguez 8 (There's still a part of me that wonders if I made a mistake not bumping Yophery Rodriguez up 5 more spots to 6). 1-3 were very close, as were Gasser and Lara. Then you had the fact that there were 16 guys I would have been fine placing in my top 10. Very little separated Adams at 9 from Uribe at 16 (sorry Abner, in prospect rankings a tie definitely does not go to the relief pitcher). Then It was a tough call on the last four spots among nine players. The other five: Henderson, Di Turi, Bitonti, Moore and Zamora. I had Henderson in and Guilarte out until swapping at the last minute. While Guilarte obviously hasn't been a picture of health either, being injury-prone just scares me more in a pitcher. If it weren't for that, he would have been 17th.

I know his batting average screams it, but I think there is more to Adams’ hitting than the 3TO moniker would suggest. Prior to his recent slump, his swinging strike rate was just slightly behind pure contact hitting teammates Luis Lara and Jadher Areinamo. For a guy his age with power potential, the contact skills are solid. They just didn’t turn into the kind of batting average you’d hope for. One of the posters who watches the games would have to say if it was bad luck or the type of contact.