CheeseheadInQC

Depending upon which ranking site you use, I could see there being one well and truly blocked exception if that team decides to go for it. That being said, what you said is part of the reason why I am OK keeping Burnes if no really good offer comes along. Sign Hoskins or, if that fails, Santana, and hope that a healthy Ashby can shore up the rotation and that the young hitters take a step forward. There is an injury risk, but assuming Burnes doesn't suffer a serious injury, that comp pick has significant value in part because of how creative the Brewers have gotten with their draft pool in recent years. Having not just the pick but the extra cash allows them to be more proactive in going after prospects they like, whereas with a trade you are obviously more limited by which players the team makes available. If they do trade him, I hope it is for pitching beyond the obvious reason of organizational depth right now. As I think you might have alluded to, I think it is more likely that the Brewers are going to find a couple of pitchers with traits they think they can mold into top-100 types than it is that they'll find a breakout hitter unless they go for DSL or complex league guys.

I might be completely off base, but I think the Brewers are going for quality for hitting prospects and quantity for starting pitching prospects. They have treated non-top 25 hitting prospects as completely tradable, but seem to be collecting starting pitchers in that range. It has been consistent enough this offseason to seem like a conscious decision. Also, I think that one of the services had Crow as a top 10 prospect in the Angels organization before the trade. I mean it is the Angels organization, but that’s still something. I am guessing that the Brewers would have easily traded Devanney and Brady for him.

I am also hoping this means they are confident that Ashby’s velocity is back and he will be ready to go. The Brewers did acquire a number of guys with higher ceilings than Houser, but there is a lot of risk there. If they were going to move Houser I kind of wish it was closer to the start of the season when they have at least slightly more info on health factors.

It does feel light, given what the pitching market has been like. That being said, the guy spent most of his career in an organization not exactly known for developing pitching. If this had been a one-for-one for Taylor I would see it as a savvy move.

I have minimal interest in including a pick with Burnes and zero interest in including it for a package that doesn’t include an upper tier pitching prospect. If I thought Sweeney could stick at short I might be tempted on the second because I for some reason feel like Ryan could take a decent sized jump this season, but since I don’t, that is probably closer to what I would hope for if we deal Adames to the Dodgers.

Seems like the biggest change was the power pretty much disappearing.

Unless Adames’ offense regresses further, I think he gets the QO and turns it down. 3-4 WAR shortstops his age get paid, and I don’t know how many other legit options will be available next year.

I think Quero got more than that, but wasn’t one of the highest bonuses. If I recall, he was getting some of the most enthusiastic scouting reports upon signing, although that might not have been the case at the time he actually agreed to the bonus.

Having too many pitchers unfortunately usually finds a way of working itself out without trades.

I don't know that it is that necessarily. They are still signing minor league free agents as well. It just seems like they decided that the place where it hurt them the least to trade from organizationally was that 25-50 range of hitting prospects. All but Brady kind of fell into that zone. I haven't necessarily agreed with every trade, but I guess I'd rather they deal from the hitters than from the high-variance pitcher types like Low or Rivero. It is definitely more likely that Devanney ends up seeing the big leagues than those two, but I still would rather deal him considering where the organization is right now. That said, I fully expect him to get called up next year and give them at least the passable production that Fry gave the Guardians last season.

Fair, I guess I had forgotten his performance there. Maybe Zamora or Murray will get the nod.

Based on the Brewers’ valuing of defense, and the reviews of Capra at short, I’m guessing Yonny.

Is Vaughn actually good or is he just a name because of his draft status? Is there reason to think he’s going to be more than he has been? Because I don’t know that I would want to give up much for a guy who might be non-tendered next season if he doesn’t improve.

If he even replicates this past season, I think the Brewers give him a qualifying offer. They will likely have a chunk of payroll space, it's a one-year deal, and Adames, even last season, ranked 11th among shortstops in fWAR. Unless I am forgetting someone, the only free agent shortstop in the last couple of seasons coming off a season roughly as good as Adames' 2023 who didn't get a substantial deal was Andrus, and he had struggled enough in the previous few seasons where no one really expected him to continue his contract-year pace.

It will be interesting to see what the rosters look like. Personally I would put the lineup like this (and I realize there likely won't be 18 position players, but I gave everyone a backup for symmetry): C: Quero. Backup: Wood 1B: Black. Backup: Clarke 2B: Brown. Backup: Dunn SS: Pratt. Backup: Areinamo 3B: Wilken. Backup: Bitonti OF: Chourio. Backup: O'Rae OF: Lara. Backup: Carlos Rodriguez OF: Yophery Rodriguez. Backup: Roller DH: Adams. Backup: Boeve Pitchers (Assuming they do one per inning) 1. Misiorowski 2. Gasser 3. Rodriguez 4. Knoth 5. Henderson 6. Blaylock CL. Shane Smith Alt. Aquino Alt. Cornielle Alt. Birchard Notes: 1. You could make a case for Navarreto as the backup catcher, but the Brewers won't do it for the optics of putting a multiple time minor league free agent in a top prospects game roster. 2. Baez was easily the toughest one to leave out. Di Turi and Guilarte would probably be next. 3. I was going to put a second true reliever as an alternate on the pitching staff but couldn't decide who. Tons of players who could break out, but Smith is the only one who stands out from the crowd at this point for me. If you want to argue for Yeager or Andrews or Horub or Small or Yoho or Yerlin Rodriguez, you might be right. If he's healthy, I'm not entirely convinced it isn't Chirino. 4. Roller got the final backup outfield slot because he's on the 40-man, but if you want to argue for Perez or Collins or Campbell or, heck, Pedro Ibarguen, you could probably convince me.

It will be interesting to see who gets chosen. Will it be mostly upper level guys or will they bring Pratt, Rodriguez and Knoth, too?

If there is interest in a reunion, bringing back Diaz and Sibrian makes sense. I looked through 3/4 of the list and the only more interesting catcher who isn’t over qualified for a A+ or AA role was the Twins’ Jeferson Morales.

I had the weird experience of working in Iowa but paying taxes in Illinois where I lived but when I was briefly furloughed during the pandemic applying for unemployment benefits through Iowa. Living and working in a border region for a company that operated in both states could get a bit confusing paperwork-wise.

Assuming that the contract would have been in the $460 million range without the deferrals, you could make a good case this structure benefits Ohtani more than the Dodgers. 1. If accurate, you have the tax dodge. 2. He gets to claim the absurd $700 million figure 3. He gets the good publicity about being dedicated to winning by deferring the money without costing him anything. The Dodgers, on the other hand, kick the can down the road on the payments but end up with the same CBT number.

From a purely roster perspective at the minor league level, they could use an additional outfielder and catcher in high-A and double-A. An international signing hitting free agency at 23 or an Indy ball hitter wouldn’t shock me there. Unless he managed to make big strides defensively, I think the Feliciano ship might have sailed. The Brewers’ way didn’t produce results there. I don’t know, for that reason, that a reunion is in either side’s best interest.

Yah, the Yankees got a decent up-down reliever for swapping similarly ranked prospects, one of whom needs a 40-man spot while the other doesn’t. And it sounds unlikely Sweeney is a full time big league shortstop.

I have heard in general that part of this is offset by the amount of additional revenue he brings in but haven’t really seen how much. Is it $2 million or $20 million? If it is closer to the latter, that would provide some insurance if he has to give up pitching and move to right field.

On the other hand it is nice to have someone new to blame for holding up the offseason. It was getting dull blaming Boras every year.

You are right about the timing, but if those dominoes fall, whatever big trades they are going to make get made and the Brewers don't have any shortstop other than Turang, IKF could be a useful addition if he is still available.

There are plenty of stories from the Brewers' 2023 minor league season of players stepping up and loudly announcing themselves as prospects to watch. This is not one of those stories. This is a story of entire seasons lost to injury, of struggles at a new level. It is a story where even most of the successes come with an asterisk. It is also one, though, that comes with a reminder that just because results might not be particularly hopeful doesn't necessarily mean they are hopeless. This is the story of the 14 pitchers who mostly comprised the shifting 2022 Brewers DSL starting rotations. The One Who Got Released By most normal standards, Jeral Vizcaino's 2022 season for the Brewers DSL squad was a rousing success. He had a 1.46 ERA and a WHIP just above 1 while striking out just over a hitter an inning. When you are in your age 20 season in the DSL, however, you have to convince the team that you deserve a spot stateside. For whatever reason (with the consolidation from two to one ACL squad likely at least partially to blame), the Brewers released Vizcaino. He hooked on with the Cubs' DSL squad, and had a similarly good 2023. Now he is hoping his age 22 season is the one in which he finally gets a complex league spot. The Lost Seasons The Returning Ace, The Opening Day Starter And The Big Lefty Kevin Briceno's strong work out of the bullpen for the 2021 DSL squad seemed to have him in line for a similar role in Arizona in 2022. The Brewers had other ideas, however, and installed the 6-1 righty as one of their opening day starters in the DSL. He rewarded them with six starts with a sub-1.50 ERA and better than 6:1 strikeout to walk rate before getting moved to Arizona. His metrics slipped stateside, but he was good enough at keeping runs off the board where he seemed to have an outside shot at pitching in Carolina to open the 2023 season. He didn't, and he didn't in Arizona, either. indeed, Briceno missed the whole season because of injury. The same fate also befell the Brewers' other opening day DSL starter in 2022, Daurys Mora. By most measures other than his 5.50 ERA, Mora had a pretty average 2022. He didn't strike out a ton but didn't walk a ton either. His xFIP was seventh out of the 14 pitchers who started at least 5 DSL games for the Brewers. He didn't get a chance to build on that in 2023, however, missing the entire season. Wande Torres was intriguing in 2022 mainly for three reasons: 1. At 6-3 he was tied for the tallest among the DSL starters. 2. He pitches left-handed 3. He struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that, his age 17 season. When his name first appeared on the ACL roster as its season was about to begin in 2023, I thought maybe the Brewers had seen signs that Torres, who had the second highest bonus among pitchers in the 2022 international signing class, had improved upon the control problems that plagued him during his debut season. Instead, it was a paper transaction, as Torres was soon moved to the IL, not pitching an inning in 2023. Dencer Geraldo, despite pitching in 2023, also probably belongs in the lost season category. After posting a 6+ ERA in his second DSL season in 2022, Geraldo's 2023 season was over after just 2 2/3 innings. Left Behind in the DR This is where the asterisks come in. Each of these four pitchers improved in almost every metric this season, but how much was simply due to having that year of experience under their belt? The players in the DSL are so young and there is so much year-to-year turnover, that even having that one extra year of experience can give the players a big advantage. That being said, improving is definitely better than the alternative. And none of these improved more than Anthony Flores. After barely breaking a 6.00 ERA in his first season, the highest bonus pitcher in the Brewers' 2022 signing class, shaved more than two and a half runs off his ERA. He was one of only seven qualifying pitchers in the DSL to post a FIP under 3.00, a group that included fellow Brewers prospect Enniel Cortez. His K/BB rate went from 1.36 to 3.56. Aneuris Rodriguez, like Torres, finished 2022 with a solid sub-4.00 ERA but shakier peripherals. Those improved in 2023, with Rodriguez shaving 1.5 off his BB/9 while adding more than 1.5 to his K/9. While the Brewers' 2023 ACL pitching staff is going to be pretty stocked, those totals should put Rodriguez in line to join Flores stateside in 2023. The improvements weren't quite as dramatic for Bryan Rivera, The Brewers' DSL innings pitched leader did, however, post a 3.57 ERA despite being the Brewers DSL starter most often hurt by the home run ball. The two-point drop in ERA was perhaps the most notable statistical change for Rivera, who improved his strikeout and walk rates, but less than the numbers seen by Flores, Rivera and last holdover. That would be Ranwell Smith, the youngest and arguably least successful of the 2022 Brewers DSL starters. Smith, who walked more hitters than he struck out in 2022, raised his strikeout rate almost three K/9 and improved his BB/9 by almost two. He still walked a few too many hitters, but the fact that he still managed to be among the least successful said a lot more about the strength of the Brewers' 2023 DSL staffs, which posted above average results despite being among the league's youngest. Journeying Stateside Once Vizcaino was released, it appeared as if there were three locks to be brought stateside. Anfernny Reyes and Osbriel Mogollon served as the top performers after Briceno's promotion. Then you had Daniel Corniel, whose mediocre to poor ERA masked some of the staff's better peripherals. To that the Brewers added two more, Manuel Rodriguez, who was only a couple of days older than Ranwell Smith, and surprisingly, Darling Solano. Who had the best season among this group is tough to say, and you could make a case for any of four of them having the most promising showing depending upon which metric you use. Mogollon had the best ERA at 3.72. That ERA, however, masked a walk rate that swelled enough to send his K/BB rate below 2. Corniel struck out nearly 12 batters per 9 innings but also had trouble with walks. He had a 5.70 ERA, in large part thanks to two blowup starts midseason, but led the team in starts. He mixed dominant starts with bouts of ineffectiveness. Rodriguez was one of the only Brewers ACL pitchers who wasn't victimized by walks, with his 5.7% walk rate leading to a solid 1.23 WHIP and him being the only Brewers' ACL starter to average more than four innings per outing. He also, however, had one of the team's lowest strikeout rates and was victimized by the long ball ... a lot. His 1.74 HR/9 dwarfed his next closest teammate. His ERA was passable for the league, but his FIP of 6.61 was more concerning. Reyes had the highest strikeout rate on the team among pitchers with at least 20 innings and coupled it with a walk rate that, while not good, was at least better than most of his non-Rodriguez teammates. However, he did it out of the bullpen. Although an early move to the bullpen isn't as big of an issue as it used to be (the Brewers are much more open to moving guys they envision as relievers to the bullpen early than they once were), I don't know that it would count as a positive development, either. As for Solano, the righty was a surprise ACL addition after being one of the more erratic members of the 2022 DSL rotation. He had one big plus, though, striking out more than 13 batters per 9 innings. That, however, eluded him in the ACL, as that number dropped below 7. His walk rate also jumped higher, moving above 10. Reasons for Optimism Despite the struggles, there are a few reasons for optimism about this group: 1. Repeating a Level Isn't As Big of a Stigma for a Pitcher In general, I am skeptical of stats for hitters repeating a level, especially for the DSL. It's why I kind of tempered my enthusiasm for Yeison Perez last year and Demetrio Nadal this year. The routes to pitchers developing, however, can be a bit more meandering, especially for ones that young. There is a reason why most of the highest money international signings, not just for the Brewers but in general, are hitters. It just seems like the advantage of an extra year of experience, in the absence of other improvements, is lesser for pitchers than hitters. 2. The Galindez effect Yorman Galindez finished the season strong in Carolina. The thing is, you wouldn't have predicted that at all if you just looked at his ACL stats. He might not be the only one. The average ERA for the ACL? 5.78 There is a chance that the absurd hitting environment in the ACL managed to mask signs of progress among the pitchers there. 3. A Bizarre Transaction There is hard to find a silver lining in injuries, especially at the DSL and ACL levels. We've seen too many players lately who have ended up never throwing another pitch in the organization again. That being said, remember when it appeared as if Aldrin Gonzalez, who had been getting some post-signing hype, was going to skip the DSL only to be put on the ACL injured list? Gonzalez wasn't the only prospect promoted only to be shut down for the season before throwing an inning. Wande Torres was, too. I will admit, I have no clue what this means, but most of the explanations I have come up with (wanting him to rehab at the team's Arizona facility, having been injured in Arizona getting ready to join the ACL club) point to the organization seeing something in the young lefty. 4. An Eye-Opening Combination One of the intriguing statistics as Aaron Ashby was climbing the prospect ranks was that he combined the strikeout rate of a power pitcher with the groundball rate of a pitch-to-contact groundball specialist. Flores put together that same combination in the DSL last season. He was among the league leaders in both ground ball rate and strikeout rate. It's more than enough for me to be genuinely intrigued to see if it will continue stateside next year.