CheeseheadInQC

Wouldn’t the boring but easy answer be whoever gets sent down when Rowdy comes back?

I kind of wish more pitchers made the list, if only because it seems rare you get many scouting reports on non-high or high bonus draft picks until they reach double-A.

Doesn’t that kind of also support the alternate viewpoint as well? Misiorowski is one of those rare guys where high-A vs. double-A doesn’t matter much. Double A guys probably aren’t going to have much more luck against him when he is on than high-A guys. I guess for me, it would be more about trying to find the ideal situation for him to hone his control. If they thought that is Biloxi, then fine. Challenging him is secondary for me.

I do kind of wonder how many more guys would get votes this time around if it was top 25 rather than 20 given that with the strength of the system it feels like there are 15-16 who should be on most ballots. Would it be double? Come to think of it, that is probably why it is 20

@Brock Beauchamp Can we add Jesus Rivero?

Is it? It seems like Hiura’s season gives him more reason to rail against the fates than the Brewers organization. Right about the time he might have been considered for a call up, he gets hurt. Then he comes back and scuffles out of the gate. Then when he rights the ship, there is a guy hitting better, with more positional versatility, and already on the 40-man. You can argue about whether the Brewers gave Winker too long of a leash, but the fact is, Hiura was unlikely to be the beneficiary even if they did cut bait earlier.

I think they might have just added the draft picks in without reordering the rest.

Yah, I think it might be time to get Boeve out of Arizona

Bizarre timing given the usual Monday off day, but obviously well deserved.

I'd go B+ overall. Part of this is because neither Jarvis or Severino were among the guys I was terribly high on (I think I had both somewhere between 28-35. Not exactly sure why with Jarvis. With Severino, though, in large part it is the walk rate. Even guys like Chourio and Quero, who have managed to increase their walk rate this year in season, walked in short-season ball, where the pitchers are at their wildest. That Severino didn't makes me question if he ever will. It's the reason why for all the power he was never even a league average hitter during his time in the Brewers' organization. And while in time he might be able to become a competent 3rd baseman or right fielder, he's unlikely to provide plus defensive value at a premium position like low-walk all-star types Javier Baez (at his peak) or Adam Jones. So what does that leave for best-case-scenario comps if he can't improve the walk rate much? A somewhat more athletic Mark Trumbo or Jake Burger? I'd put Blalock and McKendry for Jarvis and Severino as roughly even. That means value wise, we got a couple of league average bats for an impending minor league free agent and a guy who very well might have already played his last game for the Brewers even if they didn't trade him. I'm slightly more mixed on the Chafin-Strz deal, but years of control for a non-closer type reliever are probably less valuable than just about any other position, so I'm fine with it. I would be interested to know what it would have taken to get Candelario (as we learned this offseason, some teams have outlier evaluations on players, so going off similar rankings is imprecise at best). No real interest in any of the other deals that went down.

The other thing to consider is that most of the examples happened when the advanced rookie level still existed. There have been a number of guys in Carolina who probably would have been in Helena under the old setup. I guess it comes down to if they view him more like Odorizzi or Jarvis or rawer like Lemons or Vire.

Not terribly rare, although they haven’t had many highly drafted high school pitchers lately to test the theory on. I think Jarvis and Olsen were the last two to start their first full season in A ball, unless I am forgetting someone.

They brought him back last year when he was a minor league free agent after a mediocre offensive season as an A ball backup. If you are a quality defensive catcher with plus intangibles, which it sounds like he is, you are given time for the offense to come around.

1. It was 40+ which is basically a 42.5 since they don’t have 40- that I am aware of. 2. They also give risk degree as a metric with the high risk players more likely to exceed expectations or fall well short while the low ones are expected to be pretty much at that level. Blalock is high. Sometimes those 40-level A ballers progress. You stack as many of those guys as you can, especially ones you think are underrated, and work to develop them into 50+ guys. 3. Saving money is a benefit, but so is getting the prospects.

So were the trades to the Brewers salary dumps too since he was rated above Severino and Jarvis? There’s also a difference between a 40 low risk triple A guy and a high risk 40 pitcher in A ball with a lot of upward (and downward) variance in possible results.

Think Smith gets bumped to Biloxi? He might be one of the better current relief prospects.

Pham probably would have gotten a Candelario-like return if it were just about stats. I feel like I don’t have enough info one way or another to speak to whether they should have made that move or not. It would be interesting to know what it would have taken to get Candelario. I wouldn’t have been opposed to a similar package, but Made, based on the scouting reports I have read, feels like a guy who could have outlier evaluations

The problem is, there was only one hitter a half tier above the guys the Brewers acquired who was dealt. No stars did. San Diego bought. St. Louis sold the bare minimum. The White Sox weren’t dealing Robert.

A little late to the party, but Chourio might have even surpassed Taylor Green (yes, I know that he wasn’t the same level of prospect and his big league career didn’t turn out how he would have hoped, but for one glorious summer he might have been the best hitter in the minors). Even given Nashville was in the PCL at that point, his July 2011 stats are incredible. When a minor leaguer gets absurdly locked in, he is still my point of reference.

I think Blalock immediately moves into 2nd most likely to be protected. It sounds like he is more refined than Cornielle and has a collection of pitches more likely to play up in a relief role than Jimenez. Devanney, Campbell and Collins seem to fall into the category of someone might give them a 40-man spot if they were a minor league free agent like the Brewers did with Perkins. Part of the appeal, however would be having optionable depth, which obviously doesn’t work with Rule 5. Devanney is probably the most likely to get protected or picked because he can, you know, play shortstop. Too much of Zamora’s value is tied into an at this point theoretical possibility of gaining consistency and becoming a plus defender at short. Until that happens, I can’t see the Brewers protecting him or anyone picking him.

It will be interesting where he is after they truly update their rankings. If he is still 15 after that, with the likely upward climbs of Adams and Rodriguez and the addition of the draft picks, that will mean something. Regardless, it seems as if the Brewers got a higher ranked prospect for Urias than they gave up for Santana and Canha.

D’Backs apparently looking for a catcher. If we were shopping Caratini…

They got a pretty good couple prospects for him.

No one is paying for rental hitters, even with the scarcity. This Cubs package seems by far the best, and even then it might come with a bit of an asterisk given both guys are Rule 5 eligible.

Yah, I got cute at the last second, although stats-wise at least there is a case for the second AA hitter (assuming I'm right about who the first one is). I've got two of my top 40 (yah, the system is deep enough right now where I'm extending it out that far) eligible in high-A, but I think that a different player from that roster has a better chance of being protected given the circumstances if the Brewers promote him and his hot streak carries over to AA. I just don't think there is much risk of either being selected and having that extra option year could come in handy down the road. Honestly, for as fun as all this talking in code is, there is a very good chance they only protect the one.