Lathund

Likewise. They haven't run 3 catchers for any length of time before (outside of September), and I don't think Nottingham has the bat to play 1st. So I've been expecting him to be part of a trade for some time now. Perhaps they want to see that Manny is fully back from his knee injury before they decide, but them tendering a contract to Piña probably sealed his fate. Like they could trade Manny of course, but I think they value his defense, familiarity with the staff and at least average (for a catcher) hitting. Very hard to find a better backup/platoon catcher than Manny.

There will no doubt be a lot of surprises. For some players, the alternate site might have been even better than a minor league season; I would think this applies to some of the younger guys mostly who will have seen much better opposition than they would have in A-ball. Someone like Hedbert Perez, assuming he wasn't overwhelmed (And reports would suggest he wasn't, but hard to tell) probably learned a lot, that he can then apply to a full minor league season. While a AAA guy like Ray probably needed the reps from a full AAA campaign more. But it's hard to know really; perhaps the extra time and quality of coaching allowed players to make mechanical changes that would be hard to do during a normal season. Catcher defense is perhaps something that having the "roving" instructor with them permanently can aid. There were some good reports out of the summer on for example Kelly being very impressive, and Feliciano making strides at the plate, as well as Turang driving the ball better and gaining some power. You'd also think that File and Bettinger impressed, given that they were added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection despite being rather unheralded prospects. Either way, I expect there to be some major moves on midseason prospect lists for instance. From the Brewers I think Perez and Feliciano will enter the top 100 lists. I also think that if Turang shows in AA (Or AAA) that his bat has improved even slightly, that he'll rocket up the charts as well. Plus defense and baserunning already, with good plate discipline, already makes him a very likely major league. If you add a bit of power too...

I'd keep Hiura out of the Hader trades, not the right time to sell low on him. See how he does at 1B, give his bat a chance to rebound. You trade players when their contracts are running low or once they get too expensive. Keston is 24, has put up a 118 wRC+ so far, and is controllable for 5 more years, and will make league minimum for the next two. Trading Hader is potentially the best way to strengthen this team, he'll only get more expensive year on year and spending 10% of your payroll on just one reliever is not the way to do it a small market team. So trade Hader (I wish they had last year already, as much as I love watching him pitch), but leave Hiura out of it IMO. And yes, that obviously means a lesser return, but I'm fine with that.

I think it would be very short sighted to look to sell low on Hiura just because there isn't a flawless solution positionally for 2021. Firstly I think people make way too big a deal about height at 1B. Sure, it's nice to have, but how many plays are really decided by whether someone is an inch or two taller? Not enough to outweigh a good enough bat there. Hiura main issue was throwing, and as a 1B he'll be doing a lot less of that. Maybe he'll be good, maybe not, but if he's decent you get to fit another good bat in there who is controllable for 5 more seasons. It's much better to have a butcher at 1B than at 2B anyway. He'll also still be playing some 2B due to injuries/rest/certain lefties and I think 10 DH games too. There's even a chance there will be a DH still for 2021, that issue isn't closed even if teams will be operating as if there won't be one. Owners are trying to use a fairly minor concession (Universal DH) to get what's for them a major win (expanded playoffs, which brings in a ton of money for them), if they make a more realistic proposal and give the players something they want, it can still happen. I still expect the 2022 CBA to have a universal DH, so Keston's position is only a 1 year problem. And if he's even barely servicable at 1B it won't even be a problem. Having "too many" good players is never a real problem. Hold on to Hiura, and let his bat rebuild value.

I just don't think Cleveland are particularly motivated to move Ramirez. They're not in teardown mode. They want to save money, but Ramirez is extremely cheap for what he is; an MVP-caliber player in his prime. And they already have cut payroll significantly through the other moves they made, so even as cheap as they are they're not financially motivated to move him. I also think people are perhaps underestimating what it would take to get him considering the 3 cheap years remaining. I like the idea of Hader (In a 3-way trade or separately) being used to get some prospect capital for a potential move tho. Again though, I don't think it's realistic. If he was available, the Dodgers could just outbid us and it still wouldn't hurt their farm nearly as much as it would ours. So many teams would be interested, and Cleveland could turn it into a bidding war.

Yeah. we should really expect Stearns to not solve problems in the expected way at this point. And not a whisper about it until it actually happens. Did not expect this at all. But with the highest groundball % in all of baseball last year, middle infield defense makes sense to focus on. Wong gets on base, doesn't strike out much, runs the bases well. And is the best defensive 2B in the majors. Wong-Turang is a seriously good defensive infield. Hoping Turangs bat comes along fast enough to get to see the two of them together. Averaging his rWAR and fWAR over the last 3 seasons: 2018: 3 WAR 2019: 4.4 WAR 2020: 1.3 WAR - Prorates to 3.5 WAR for a full season. Pretty damn good for $9m AAV. It's for his age 30, 31 (and potentially 32) seasons so decline shouldn't be much of a concern. And going away from strictly if it's an objectively good signing or not, I at least think it's a fun one. I like watching good defense, I like good baserunning, and it seems the Cardinals fans are not happy about this and I like that too.

Brewers had the highest groundball percentage in the majors last year, adding the best defensive 2B in the game makes sense from that point of view. Another LHH too. But I also wonder what it does for the 3B search; both in terms of money available for it and roster spots. Would also require there to either be a DH, or for Hiura to pick up 1B well enough. Or perhaps it's just a case of Brewers being in contact with every FA, as they are, and it getting reported as more than it is?

I think Hedbert Perez, Mario Feliciano and Antoine Kelly are the most likely to enter the top 100. Reports are positive about Felicianos bat from the alternate site last year. Assuming those are correct, I expect he'll shoot up the rankings once that approach starts showing up in AA (Or even AAA); power hitting catchers don't exactly grow on trees.

Not prospect rankings per se, but the PECOTA spreadsheet was published today. That is the raw data without playing time or park adjustments or anything. It's basically projecting a ton of players from each organization, and former players who haven't appeared for other teams; so Brewers list includes Matt Albers and Brett Anderson, Cubs has Addison Russell and so forth. From a "prospect" point of view it's interesting because while Yelich and Cain as #1 and #2 in terms of WARP on the team is hardly surprising, #3 and #4 are... Luis Castro and Cooper Hummel. Which is quite surprising tbh, even if Hummel hit very well in AA in 2019 and Castro absolutely crushed it in A+ (1.001 OPS in 475 PAs). Yet Hummel was unprotected (and wasn't taken) in the Rule 5 draft, and Castro was let go by the Rockies after that monster season. So you'dthink that the teams don't really expect their performance to carry up the levels. But PECOTA does. For comparison, Castro isn't projected by ZiPS, while ZiPS projects Hummel for 76 wRc+. Now purely looking at minor league stats without context is a bad way to scout, but projections like this can still be of some interest to use alongside scouting. Projections will after all look at which minor league statistical attributes tend to best correlate with major league success and such. What they'll miss are players who hit well because they're older, stronger or simply feasting on poor control and underdeveloped changeups. I have absolutely no idea how the Brewers view either of these two players, just thought it was curious enough to share.

There will be an offensive rebound from the group that underperformed last year. Maybe not all of them, and maybe others will take a step back (Like Arcia legitimately looked better, not just doing the same thing but getting better results in a small sample. But it takes a lot for me to believe a breakout), but overall offense will be better. Still need at least one addition, but 2020 was an anomaly. Pitching is where I'm excited. Brewers pitching were "only" 11th in ERA- last year. They were not helped by a defense that ranked 22nd and 23rd by DRS and UZR. LoCain alone should do a lot to help that defense be better. So looking at what the pitchers actually control you can see that the Brewers were tied for 2nd in FIP-, tied for 1st in xFIP-, 2nd in SIERA. By the Statcast metric xwOBA (Quality of Contact + K + BB) Brewers were 3rd. Brewers pitching allowed the lowest average exit velocity in the majors, the 2nd lowest hard hit %, the third lowest average launch angle, and the highest groundball %. There's something in there for the hardcore sabermetricians, the statistically interested regular fan, and the "old school". Even if you want to bury your head in the sand and ignore any newer measures, it's hard to argue that the combination of weak groundballs and strikeouts is anything other than good. And the pitchers doing this are for the most part either originalyl drafted/signed by the Brewers, or have spent a couple of seasons in the Brewers minor league system. And they weren't "can't miss" big time prospects either. It being a developmental success bodes really well for the ability to keep finding decent pitchers. On the strength of the pitching, and that these guys are young and controllable with more to come, I feel reason to be optimistic. I liked what I saw from Lindblom once he settled in a bit, and I think he will have a strong season. I think there's a strong chance Brewers take the Reliever of the Year award for a 4th straight year. And, bold prediction time, I think that could happen even if it's not Hader or Williams. Peralta has the potential for it, and to look for an even darker horse: Justin Topa. I'd like to see a corner IF brought in, but I like where the team is at tbh. I trust this FO, they know what they're doing.

I'd take that TB trade. Both prospects are 50 FVs per the newly released Fangraphs list. As a comparison, Brewers 2021 list isn't updated yet but the midseason 2020 list only had one 50 FV prospect (Turang). So even if some Brewers prospects get upgraded, those two would be among our best prospects. Baz is a long way away, but Walls had a 135 wRC+ in AA in 2019, so should be mostly MLB ready if he had no major setbacks in 2020. Switch hitting middle infielder, who is on the 40-man, at spots where TB have Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames and the best prospect in baseball; Wander Franco. So probably someone they'd be open to discussing. Brosseau has had very limited playing time, but has looked good in what he had. Heard good things about his attitude and work rate too (Went undrafted, worked his way onto a WS roster). I think his strikeout rate will hold him back and he won't be the 128 wRC+ hitter he has been so far, but he is at least a clear update based on the current roster even if he's more like a 110 wRC+ type. I have a lot of faith in the Brewers ability to develop relievers. Meaning that while obviously losing Hader will weaken the bullpen no matter what, I think they'll be able to cope. Given the current roster construction with how weak corner IF looks, I believe Mike Brosseau and $6m salary saved (If spent...) will win the Brewers more games in 2021 than Josh Hader would. If prospects pan out (Or can be flipped again), it just keeps adding. Like it's not a sexy deal and we'd be hoping for more, but I think it's about on point for what an elite reliever can realistically net for a return. Mind you, I don't actually buy that TB are all that interested. They seem to be similar to the Brewers in that they don't spend money on relievers.

From 2017-20 the Cardinals won 292 games, the Brewers won 300. Individual season totals were 83, 88, 91 & 30 for the Cards versus 86, 96, 89 & 29 for the Brewers. We've literally been competitive with (& won more games than) the Cardinals over the last four years despite the fact STL has spent around 500 million on payroll over that time compared to only around 350 million for the crew. The forums are absolutely miserable to read at times like this. There is disappointment, frustration, impatience; which I totally get even if I don't always agree. But it's just coated in so much hyperbole, attention-seeking and self-pity that whatever substance is at the heart of it gets drowned out. So I appreciate it when posters, like you're doing now, bring out some actual numbers and do some fact-checking.

Trading for Nolan Arenado, or trading away Hader, Yeich, Hiura, Woodruff and Burnes. Clearly the only two options.

Having followed them for a few years now, it always seems to me like the MLB Pipeline lists tend to put more weight on the draft positions. Early round picks will always show up high on the team lists (and some in the overall lists) and always (or nearly always) in the same order they were taken. More inertia in the system. Which is neither good or bad, just is. But also tends to lead to them differing somewhat from BA/Fangraphs/BP for example. And Keith Law will do his own thing.

Always interesting to see the wide span in reactions, everything from "The sky is falling" to "C O O R S". Cardinals made a move that makes them better. That's it. It's not nothing, it's not the end of the world. Or even something that puts the division out of reach. Brewers were projected to win it (According to both the combined ZiPS/Steamer projections on Fangraphs and Clay Davenport. PECOTA isn't out yet), this should make the Cardinals slight favorites on the Fangraphs projections, and still leaves them far behind according to Davenport. I also very well realise that the Brewers need to make some kind of corner IF move still and my favorite option for that (LaStella) is gone so I'm also getting a bit itchy. Yet at the same time, Brewers were never going to take on $25m AAV for 6 years, so Arenado signing elsewhere doesn't really concern me, it isn't as if we lost out on anything we could've realistically had. Even if an AL team would be far preferable over an NLC team. I'm starting to think that the corner IF spot will be adressed via trade at this point.

Part 2 of that agent survey has been posted, and among the questions were which team executives were the toughest negotiators. Among the replies was this: "It could also be taken as a compliment. This was an agent’s scouting report on David Stearns, the Brewers president of baseball operations: “Stearns is tough, brilliant, fast. He’s honest. It’s hard to find people who are that smart and honest. If he wanted to use his powers for evil, he could.” It was also mentioned, though not in connection with Stearns, that most GMs/PoBO don't negotiate directly themselves. And a different question was which GM/PoBO you trust the most., only Friedman and Neander got more mentions than DS. I recall seeing (From a Buster Olney piece IIRC) similar sentiments about Stearns maybe a couple years ago as well from an agent, that he's a tough negotiator and sticks to his valuations, but is straightforward and professional. Easy to deal with, but hard to get a good deal from.

I would've loved to see him as a Brewer for $6.3m AAV. That contact rate and low strikeout rate means I'm not particularly worried about going multiple years to a guy in his 30s.

Whether it was Stearns as GM and Arnold as Assistant GM, or Stearns as PoBO and GM with Arnold as assistant, or as it is now with Stearns as PoBO and Arnold as GM, I don't think much in the way the team actually operates is different.

This being bumped made me go through the first pages, always fun to see reactions in hindsight. Mostly positive, some only cautiously so, some slightly negative and then there are those who absolutely hated it. "Awful awful trade. I hate it. Dear god what an awful trade." "Too much, hate this deal. Really hate it." "I feel violated." Not meant to call anyone out (Hence not quoting the actual posts with usernames), it's more about how different our views can be when we all have the same information to go on. But since it was mostly positive reactions, at least we were correct as a group in the end. Wade Miley signing thread is interesting as well, can't remember any thread with a wider gulf between the (hugely negative) reactions and the actual (very good) performance.

I think that if they're trading an OF, and not just moving one to 1B (Or hoping that there will still be an agreement on the DH), it's Garcia. Even as he is getting older, there is a massive difference in run prevention between Cain in center as opposed to Garcia or Yelich. They'd ideally want a CF if they traded Cain, so it'd then be Rosario *and* someone else. But I gotta say, without the 1B/DH plan I don't see the logic of Rosario. You can create at bats for 4 OFs, so that's not a stumbling block, but it still spends a good chunk of whatever money there is on something that's not corner IF. And that would be fine if it was to fit in a special bat, bur Rosario is a 106 wRC+ bat for his career, who is limited to LF. If I was in charge I'd just roll with Cain and Garcia instead of selling low. As for it being Yelich? No, just no. Not happening.

LaStella to Giants Supposedly 3 years, salary unknown as of yet. I've been on the LaStella train all offseason, I thought the LHH 2B/3B with miniscule strikeout rate would've been a perfect fit. So if it's a low AAV I'm gonna be disappointed he's not a Brewer.

There will be a LHH 3B acquired at some point in addition to this, of that I'm (almost) certain. This front office has always wanted balanced lineups, and to take advantage both of Miller Park and the simply fact that most pitchers are righties. Right now, there's Vogelbach, Narvaez, Yelich and perhaps McKinney on the roster who hit lefty. There will be more added, and I don't think it'll be Cozens, Ray or Erceg. They did announce Robertson as IF/OF, perhaps that tells us something about his planned role, perhaps it doesn't.

Jose Altuve was signed for $15k, Acuna for $100k. There are a bunch of others examples of this too. Not only do these guys sign at 16, but the deals are often agreed even earlier than that. So I agree that spreading it around a bit, and investing a ton into the player development side in the DR complex, is a good way to go. Which is not to say it's always the way to go, but using the whole pool on two $3m guys is a very risky maneouver.

Andrew Vaughn turns 23 in April and is ranked as a top 15-30 prospect in baseball (#21 in Baseball America’s Top 100 released earlier this week). He would’ve most likely started 2020 at Double-A had there been an MiLB season. He could be in the majors as soon as this coming season, but should certainly be there no later than 2022 (next season). I just don't share the enthusiasm for Vaughn. .253 at A and .252/.349 at A+... He hasn't seen AA yet much less AAA pitching. If the Brewers were going to get a highly questionable pitcher, I'd want a more polished and MLB ready prospect for Hader. It was A+ in the same year he was drafted. He put up a 122 wRC+ in A+ in his draft year. He has a 12.7% walk rate and a 13.5% strikeout rate too. When you leave out the slugging from your stat lines (As you always do, for some reason) you miss out what players can do. Any particular reason why you left out the .388 OBP in A-ball, but including it for the A+ stats?

It makes so little sense for the Brewers to trade Burnes now that it'd have to be an absolutely monstrous return; the kind of return that won't make sense for another team. I guess after the success of wetbutt23 and KatiePerrysBootyHole being the first to break the Quinatana trade, the Sox fans are all in on Twitter/Reddit randoms breaking trades.