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dadofandrew

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Everything posted by dadofandrew

  1. dadofandrew
    We bought our first computer at one like this at the MN State Fairgrounds. Paid about $250 (back then, a desktop was about $750-1000), and it worked for about 3 years. Most of them usually have Badgers/Packers sweatshirts and the like for $5-10. The folks we bought ours from gave us their business card and told us to bring it in if we had any trouble in the first year. Pretty much everything is going to be refurbished, or bought in bulk, but you'll find good deals. We sat outside at that one for about 15 minutes, eating lunch, and saw a minimum of 50 people leaving with a $100+ purchase. I can't imagine how much business that place did.
  2. dadofandrew
    As a contrarian, I love the fact some still some say this is not a true rally...it's up 55% from it's low, what's it take to have a real rally? I'll worry more when people start saying 15K is around the corner. Companies tightening their belts and cutting waste is fine with me. I don't see much of a "boom", but inflation is nil and unemployment will start downward slowly. The "bust" is over, GNP will be up in Q3, which just ended. Foreclosures? So? Home values may go down a bit, but that only matters if you're buying or selling a house. The market is about earnings, and they look very good for well run companies.
  3. dadofandrew
    He is a weak SS, and no starter wants to only play 5 games out of 7, and Lopez will want to be a starter at a designated position. Add that to the fact no one wants to pay $5-6M for a backup IF (already paying Hall $7M to not be around), that money has to come from somewhere.
  4. dadofandrew
    They haven't brought Hernan up the past two Septembers. I like him for what he is, kind of a poor man's Catalanotto, but his utility IF future is pretty spotty since he can't play SS (and has only incidental experience at 3B). As an OF, he has little bat. As a free agent, he'd have plenty of teams interested, but he's more of a "depth" guy than a "roster" guy.
  5. dadofandrew
    I don't see C being filled internally. There are quite a few veteran C's available, though as I have pointed out, those available do not look to match Jason's OBP.
  6. dadofandrew
    Lopez will make $5-6M, and McGehee $500K. That's fine if you can spare $5.5M, but considering the Crew has to fill C, CF, and a pair of SP spots, they will likely choose to go cheap at SS and 3B. That's why Alcides is the obvious choice. I don't know what the budget is, but it is a finite number. If you pay one guy, that's less you can pay the other 24. One of the interesting decisions this year will be if Mark tells Doug to ignore Hall's money, or if that counts on the '09 payroll...that's a huge difference.
  7. dadofandrew
    There are about 10 teams that JJ would be an upgrade for. TOR is one, SEA is another, and there are many more. Until those teams find a SS, they'll be linked to Hardy.
  8. dadofandrew
    Not if Counsell is back. Hernan could still make it as a backup OF or all-around utility man though. If Craig returns, they'll probably go with a RH bat as the other reserve.
  9. dadofandrew
    I think you're proving variance exists. Some guys are going to have bad years every year. Davis HAS sustained success long-term, in my view, as he's made a bijillion dollars and has thrown 200+ innings most years. Now, could he come in and put up a 5 ERA...yep. He could also put up a 3.50 ERA...he'll probably be projected right about 4.25-4.40. I'd also like to say I find the insistence Washburn's road ERA numbers are because he pitches in a pitcher's park. He's pitched better on the road, and I do not recall SEA having a great defensive OF the past 3 years. JW has managed a 3.83 ERA on the road since 2007. He's been undervalued for ages because he doesn't throw hard. Sabathia is not returning to the Crew, and the free agent market has one solid pitcher without health issues...and I do not see Lackey ending up in MIL. Harden and Bedard are very good, but are both reminiscent of Sheets...buyer beware, you may get 170 frames, you might get 0-50 (which is true of all pitchers, but history does tend to repeat itself).
  10. dadofandrew
    The first three years look pretty good to those of us who saw the Crew put up a 5+ ERA from the SP's, Joe. I'm not looking for a Sabathia type. I'll take 4.25-4.50 happily and let them work with Yo. My gosh, 4 guys in that range and Yo might equal about a 4-4.20 rotation, that's gotta be top 4 in the NL. EDIT: 6th or 7th, as COL had a 4.10 ERA by the SP's. The Brewers had a 5.37...lowering it to 4.20 and leaving the IP's the same would have resulted in 116 fewer runs scoring...11-12 wins, using the rule of 10. That's 91-92...I'll take that.
  11. dadofandrew
    That's pretty much how FIP works...many pitchers beat it every year. It's a very odd stat...no one bothers figuring out defense independent hitting, so I by far prefer, you know, using the results. As I stated, there's little doubt Davis and Washburn improve the staff, a whole rotation of them and the Crew wins 90 games. Again, if you do not want SP's with good numbers, that's your choice, but then it seems odd to wonder why they magically don't put up good numbers.
  12. dadofandrew
    Joe, I think you answered your own questin. Many seem to think Washburn's numbers are a result of Safeco, so I keep using road ERA, which seems to make that argument moot.
  13. dadofandrew
    Well, for one thing, we have no idea if a middling FA SP wants to play in MIL, or how much the market will decide they are worth...last season, they got about $5-6M, two years ago, about $9-10M.
  14. dadofandrew
    Bush's health is a question mark, and he'll make $5-6M in arby, if offered. Washburn's road ERA the past three years is 3.83, I don't recall Dave coming close to those numbers. I can't compare the two, except to say Washburn is better in the past. Davis has a 4.22 ERA since '07, pitching half his games in the hitter's paradise of Arizona. He's not dominant, but he's very solid.
  15. dadofandrew
    I'm not sure what folks are expecting from a FA pitcher if Davis or Washburn are not acceptable. Both have proven they are above average SP's and have solid career numbers. And, as a bonus, they are not 27-28, so they may well sign a 2 year deal with a vested option for year 3. If they were in their prime, we'd be looking at CC money/length, or more likely, 75% of each. 5 pitchers like Davis/Washburn, and the Brewers are in the playoffs...I've done the math. Arizona is not an easy place to pitch, and Washburn's numbers on the road speak for themselves. One of those two and young SP with some upside for JJ, that's a huge upgrade from '09.
  16. dadofandrew
    It makes too much sense to ever happen.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The Braves are looking to add a RH power bat at 1B/3B/LF/RF, and they do seem to have a surplus of pitching. As for replacing Corey, a platoon of Catalanotto and Eric Byrnes might come close. I'm sure ARI would give Byrnes away if the Crew paid $1-2M of his salary.
  17. dadofandrew
    I like Gindl a lot too. I like Schafer too, but like Caleb a lot more due to his age. I can't say I disagree much with the rankings...in a 12 team league, you should only have 1-2 guys. Schafer, Amudsen, and Rivas do not seem like top guys to me, so I can see them all being 21-40.
  18. dadofandrew
    I think Washburn and Davis might well sign 1 or 2 year deals. Not sure if they project to a 4 ERA, but they're somewhere in that range. Jarrod is almost as old as Mike, and Doug is mid 30's as well.
  19. dadofandrew
    If Cameron did save 20 runs over the average CF, he made each pitcher slightly better, no doubt. However, if they sign someone who projects to a 4 ERA, and they take the place of someone projected to have a 5 ERA, that's 22.2 runs saved, over 200 innings. Considering Mike is not a youngster, and both his offensive and defensive output is projected to fall based on age alone, I'd go with a cheaper replacement myself. I like Mike, and would be happy if he said he'd be back for $4M, probably even $6M. My guess is, he'd be willing to take 2y/$20M rather than the $12M he'd get in arby.
  20. dadofandrew
    Hart is average and has the potential (and the past) to be a 20HR/20 SB/40 2B guy. That's a tempting array to teams that are not in the top 5 run producers.
  21. dadofandrew
    Seafood.
  22. dadofandrew
    Doug said "it will be hard to keep Cameron and Kendall", so unless they take significant cuts (and Jason might), I think they are gone. Sadly, you can't offer either one arby, unless you have a deal in place to decline.
  23. dadofandrew
    Mass, I think you're overestimating a no hit/good field AAA catcher's worth...not may teams are going to pay much for that, as tons of guys are released every year that can defend like Carlos and can't hit a lick. As for Angel, short guys always have to prove themselves more. If they can't do something, the team can easily say, "Ah, he's only 5-7", and move on. One look at the 5-8 or shorter players in the bigs shows it's a tough road, and few make it to the end.
  24. dadofandrew
    I always find it funny everyone wants to get a top SP coming off a great year, but have no interest in a top pitcher who has any warts at all...even a guy like Washburn and/or Davis, who have been well above average for several years now. Yo is not available, and for the same reasons, the Crew is not going to get those top fellas. Doug is looking for those classic dependable guys, or guys who have upside, who may break out like Piniero did. One thing no one is discussing is Doug's discussion of how they hoped to have 3 200 inning guys, and did not have any. That's why I see innings eaters like Davis and Washburn being brought in, as obviously, a guy like Nolasco is all but impossible to get. The more I think about it I can see SEA getting JJ for a pair of pitchers, one being the enigma whose name escapes me now (Brandon Morrow), the other being a young fella with upside.
  25. dadofandrew
    No way Cain is available unless Prince, Ryan, or Yo's names are part of the deal. Maybe a year or two ao, but not now that he's proven. As for Washburn, he has road ERA's of 3.34, 4.21, and 3.80 the last three years. Needless to say, on a 1-2 year deal, almost any team in baseball would be thrilled to have him at market.
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