TJseven7

At the same time I hope he doesn't get options blind and keep turds because more turds equals depth! If yo keeps pitching like crap and he's in the pen instead of Williams or in the rotation over guerra suter woodruff because it makes for a deeper team, I'll be quite irritated. ST stats are one thing... being bad 2 years and then sucking again in ST is another. I'd rather release filler and hope some shuffles to AAA than hold back youth.

This notion that someone thinks the sky is falling is a strawman if your directing it to me. I don't believe the sky is falling and I've said all along they are a fringe playoff team. Whether Miley starts out in the rotation or not doesn't change that for me. I do think there is pitching available that would take them from fringe to favorite and wouldn't be all upset if that meant Miley started in the minors. The whole "hey, we done good with garbage last year so it should be good this year" theory does nothing for me, especially when the "turds" on the other team may be significantly better than some of our top three. We don't have Nelson so bringing up last year is a bit apples and oranges. He made that rotation work. They did good with garbage last year theory isnt even correct. We actualky did dreadfully with garbage but anderson nelson davies suter carried the staff for a large part of the season. Garza started off decent as well. Knebel Hader swarzak hughes savlaged a dreadful pen. The team can take a massive jump if they simply cut the garbage... chacin would have been a big step if Nelson was healthy and no one regressed, but he's not and they could. If you can't run an ace or 2 you need 5 good options. Even if miley is good miley he's still not good. Big innings 4.3 era merely limits damage. That won't be enough to make the staff solid. It coukd be as good as last year but you are also at the point where smoke and mirrors has to work well to get any improvement from the staff. Enough is one thing. Not buying when you can afford to in depressed market is a missed chance. Adding cobb even if he's the guy he was last year would make a huge impact on this staff, even if you want to believe in woodruff miley guerra yo suter wilkerson. Cobb all but ensures this staff era drops from the 4.1 it was last year and a very solid amount as well. The pens better. The offense should live up to their numbers better than last year with a top of the order setting the table. Cobb is an upgrade. He could be a 1 and a huge upgrade. Its a depressed market. Upside, good floor, not old old, pitch profile that should age well, playoff rotation piece. A 4th rounder not a bundle of prospects. This is an opportunity you don't get often. I can see you saying Chacin Miley horse a piece. Cobb's flat better.

My only explanation left is that these dudes simply won't settle for the depressed maeket price and are praying a big money club loses an arm and changes the demand. Otherwise this is nonsense. If the contracts play off darvish this should be sorted out by now.

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption. The problem with my argument is assumptions and that's shown by stating nonsensical possibilities? Where's the, well the world could end tomorrow so its moot, hot take? Anythings possible isnt a take. Cobb was a top 60 arm last year as is and could be even better. He'd be our 2nd best pitcher maybe 3rd if nelson comes back well... but they might not see him as a significant upgrade over miley guerra? Its excuses for being cheap.

I was the 1 year following tj cuz it didn't work. Not wanting to add a 2 to the staff who could be a 1 if he gets that pitch back because we have a guy who can throw 4 ip sub 4 era per outing is an interesting choice. Especially since cobb was better without his best pitch.

Doesn't matter if gallardo had a better career. That guys been gone for awhile and just because you change stuff doesn't mean it works. All these guys are throwing crap against the wall to see if it sticks and that's fine until you let the garbage linger into the season to see if they can eventually figure it out. We did that last year. We have enough promising options this year. He should be sent to figure it out in AAA and if someone else wants him... good luck to them.

Gross. You can sell me on short starts from guerra and maybe redeption #5 miley but Gallardo actually looks bad. Why are we hell bent on having a milone on the roster.

I meant hes a 2... with a split change back he's a 1. Not that its already happened. I honestly think the 4th year fear and mere depth increase talk is delusional. 31-34 isnt even old compared to the vast majority of the FAs that hit the market. Pretty good isnt top 60 league wide. If he's pretty good well then goods not coming here for under 20-25 mil long term or half our farm being traded away. Removing miley from the rotation for a floor of 3.65 era improves the 1-5s era by roughly .2 runs on the year. That's a huge bump.

Drakes dreadful vs rhb, they dont use him strictly as a loogy and we have logan.

Eh miley comes off as strangely honest. The whole, "now I'm trying, I sucked the last two, walked too many was told by an old coach how I've messed up my mechanics" ... seems legit.

I'm ready to go: Anderson Davies Chacin Guerra/Suter Miley But cut Gallardo. Knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress williams will do.

Well whats that number? 64/4? If so, yeah give him what he wants. He's our 3rd best pitcher if he's merely last years cobb. That's if Nelson returns well. Cobb's a 2. Split change back and he's absolutely a 1. Hes not an ace but aces don't command a mere 16 mil per without buying them out beyond their certain decline. This team could go Guerra/suter combo and Miley might have settled his mechanics and will give us a very respectable year. It's clever sure... but its not close to what cobb can do. Trying to manufacture a davies is one thing. Adding a guy for your playoff rotation is a different story.

Anderson and Nelson both had career years last season. While I certainly hope Anderson can repeat it’s a big if. And who knows what Nelson will be when he gets back from a pretty substantial should injury. Last year the Brewers starters had a top 5 ERA in the NL. I just can’t see anything close to that with a rotation consisting of Miley, Guerra, and/or Gallardo. All three of them were just awful last year. Additionally, of someone told you three months ago we could have gotten Cobb for 4/$60 I think any one of us would have taken that. Even though he’s probably not a TOR guy, he’s a significant upgrade over the other three. Anderson, Davies, Cobb, Chacin, Woodruff looks much better to me than Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff and Miley/Guerra. You are simply ignoring the numbers then. The pen looks like a 3.5 pen. Big improvement. The 4-5 needs 64 starts at 4.7 era averaging 5 ip to match last year. That's not hard to do. Adding cobb would make the era dramatically better than it was last year. Right now its about equal. THAT'S HOW BAD the back end and pen was last year.

Is there actual talk of Johnson fixing him or was it Wescott as stated in a few articles? Miley turned to his old summer league coach chris wescott and after viewing his video wescott stated he was over rotating and losing his release point... thus the walks spike and bad pitch placement.

Its just not in the cards for him with this roster as is. The 1 guy who I wanted to see leave no doubt was Woodruff and that's not going well so far. Guerra and freaking Miley have gotten off to a better start and it's got to be giving CC and stearns more interest in starting off with the vets to keep system depth in place.

Fip and fipx are random pointless statistics. Throwing numbers at a wall to see if they stick. They don't calculate the type of contact, just the result of contact. All contact is not equal. Ks are nice but fip over rates them. Calculating out defense is one thing... calculating all contact as equal is nonsense. If you k a lot of guys but also watch rockets sprayed around the yard when you don't K a guy you'll see a babip spike that correlates with hard contact. Thats statistically significant and factors in more ways than fbs and hrs. Until it factors in soft contact vs hard contact is just something to look at.

"FIP wins and loses a lot of ball games considering it’s the things a pitcher actually controls" That doesn't decide a game. The pitcher only controls a part of the game. Can you quantify why some pitchers consistently beat their fip and others don't. No... then its just a number. The analytics stance of there is no such thing as clutch directly argues against fip... there is no luck if there is no clutch.

If only there were other statistics than ERA. Wake me when fip wins a ball game... or when you get bonus points for Ks.

Yet guys who can throw 3.0 era get 3 mil.

Just "cave" and give cobb 60/4. Having Guerra/suter woodruff miley gallardo wilkerson nelson as options for the 5th spot is much nicer than them having to take the 4th and 5th spot.

I sure hope the fad hasn't passed. Teams still paid out the backside for Davis and it was going to be holland. I'm fine with a bunch of hughes albers types in the pen if we can simply have 2 that are closer to 3 era and as you said not scared of the responsibility. I really like Williams, Haders got it. I think peralta is destined for it. Houser has 2 60 grade pitches. If the offer doesn't come so be it. But 3.5 mil is going to jump 3 subsequent times and our pen has youth waiting and has been something stearns pays for in pennies. If the offer is close to there I'd pounce on it. Our pen put up 3.85 era last year. 6 jeffress types 1 albers and 1 hader is a giant improvement.

I want Williams in this pen. Happy for nottingham too. Could really use an offensive plus year.

Ha! Sorry, used to pervasive snark around here. It was a strange day. Saw the lineup card, double took, looked at coach with my arms hanging with an exasperated "are you nuts" look on my face. I pitched, if you can call it that but I made the team as OF/SS. We had pitchers. Good ones. I wasn't one of those. Asked him why... He smiled and said, "humor me, I got an idea." He knew who we were playing and tried to pull a rabbit out of a hat. I was said rabbit. Walked out there and thought... ok... good bye ball. Then a bunch of over swings and balls spiked into the ground. 4th inning they smoked me but right at the defense. Time to go. Left with a lead like 2-0 and in came our big strong whistling fastball pitcher who iced him arm after starts. I never iced my arm. Why would I? I don't throw hard enough to strain anything. I could throw 18 innings without wearing out if allowed. It was that slow and then slower. I think we are going to win for sure now cuz this guys better. I've faced him. He's beamed me and it sucked. 1st pitch got hit on a line to the fence. 2 pitchers went the rest of the way and we lost by roughly 10. I thought they'd kill me. They thought they'd kill me. They tried too hard and the defense stole us 4 innings. As soon as they got a normal look it was a rout. And I see fragments of that in suter. Id expect him to get better as the competition gets better aka majors out perform minors. He's releasing a ball as fast as a batting cage but its up down in out moving and seems to hit cold regions on their batting chart. They don't get to process the ab. They get made uncomfortable. I mean, was it judge, never stepped out of the batters box. It's crazy. It's 1 more thing to mess a batter up. They are used to mid 90s and then this stuff just gets in their head. Makes them slow down. Messes up timing. And he's adaptable and not fragile. Just go out there and do your thing. The woodruff start showed that. But his stuff doesn't lead me to believe he has an alteration and as soon as the comfort level settles, its game on. He's too crafty to be used as a throw away long man but that piggyback idea seems made for him. 2 times through max. Especially after a rhp. The more lefties in the lineup the better. Guerra through 4 was sub 4 era. Suter through 3 was brilliant. Screams magic trick potential and the 8 man pen makes it possible.

The 3/4 of a run shinier era fooled me. My mistake.

This misses one point: Batters adjust to pitchers, but pitchers also adjust to batters. Who's to say that Suter, as he learns hitters, doesn't become more able to pitch deep into games, and becomes not a 4/5 starter, but a 2/3? I think he has earned the opportunity to try to push deeper into games. We still have the relief options to back him up if it doesn't work out. What alteration does he have that he can go to? Anyway Guerra doing Guerra things in a short stint again. This 4 starter guerra suter combo continuing to look plausible.