TJseven7

I agree broxton = bad. But in cf hes averaged +.25 dwar in 2 years Santana has averaged -1.2 dwar in 2 years. Phillips would be a huge defensive plus in rf playing most of the time. If broxton can't play rf... cain can. Broxton in cf for 50 games. Cain in rf 50 games. Phillips in rf 110 games is way better than Santana defensively. That's how Im looking at it.

Ok you've lost me already, I'm sorry I didn't really take much of the rest of your post seriously. When are we signing Cobb AND Arrieta? I can understand one of the two, but obviously we've gone almost 5 months without signing a single one of the two, what makes you think we're going to acquire both? If that's your logic behind trading Davies, you need to have both signed first. If you trade Davies before that happens (which he is pre-arb, and not even in the REALM of their price tags currently), you're trading away your current #2 pitcher, with very little starting pitching depth. I'm sorry that I can't take your argument seriously for this scenario, I wish I could see your point of view Ok both of you are getting caught up on a hypothetical aspect of what I'm saying so lets just talk about the situation as is or 1 step from here. Assume era/runs diff = wins is a growth curve that plateaus. Top 15 team era is 4.48. Top 15 runs is at 4.6 per game. Top runs astros 5.5 runs scored to 4.1 era. Cle had 5.05 to 3.30 era dodgers had 4.75 to 3.4 era. 1.4, 1.75, 1.35 difference. 3 100 win teams. Follow the playoffs. Lad 104 (4.75v3.4) +1.35, cle 102 (5.05v3.3) +1.75, astros 101 (5.5v4.1) +1.4 Nats 97 (5.05v3.9) +1.15, AZ 93 (5v3.65) +1.35, bos 93 (4.85v3.7) +1.15 Cubs 92 (5.05v3.95) +1.1, Yankees 91 (5.3v3.7) +1.6, colo 87 (5.05v4.5) +.55 Twins 85 (5.05v4.6) +.45 Looks like 5 runs per game 3.9 era is the sweet spot Brewers 4.5 runs... 4.0 era. +.5.... 4.1 starter 3.85 pen Tb 4.3v4 +.3.....stl 4.7v4 +.7......laa 4.4v4.2 +.2....... Kc 4.3v4.6 -.3 And thats the end of the 80 win teams. Yup score runs, don't allow runs win games. But a +1.1 team is a 90 win team. After that if falls off fast. 1.75 and 1.6 had 102 wins and 91 wins. 1.35 is the 104 win best dodgers and 93 win az team. There's no correlation in runs v era once you pass +1.1. This is rumidial but also what I'd expect the plateau to look like. A 90 win team is a +1.1. A 100 win team is a +1.3. The cost/talent difference to move up that +.2 is likely siesmic. As is... Anderson 3.2 (203 ip od 2.75) davies 3.9 chacin 4.0 woodruff 4.4 fluff 4.8 (lets hope) roughly the 4.1 era and that's what we had last year. Say you get nelson back at 3.4 (was a 3.1 when he locked in) for 2019 and burnes is 4.4 inplace of fluff. You take out Davies and fluff for nelson burnes and its realistically a 3.9 era rotation. +.2 from last year. Just Nelson Anderson Chacin Woodruff Burnes. If you added a cobb even as a 3.6 era that spikes even lower. This is why I say adding cobb makes Davies expendable for assets if/when nelson is back. 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.4... anderson nelson cobb chacin woodruff is 3.7 not 4.1. Pen 3.85... 3.85! Suter as a long man, knebel hader and 5 jeffress blows that out of the water! In the 3.5 range. Lets ignore 5 jeffress and assume we can get a 6 man average of 3.65 era out of albers peralta barnes williams houser and jeffress. Is that a big stretch? I do not believe so. If 1 of those 6 are sub 3 era...1 of that entire group, and the rest can still average 3.65 then you can hit the era you want from the pen without knebel. Roughly 3.55 Our unfinished rotation profiles equal to last years rotation at 4.1 if our 5th isnt worse than Garza and anderson doesn't fall off a cliff. Thats without nelson. Our pen with Knebel Hader Suter and 5 jeffress (3.65 guys) would be a stark improvement over last years pen. Instead of 4.0 team era... as is its looking more along the lines of 3.9 era. Done simply by removing gigantic depth weakness warts. Again thats no Nelson, no real 5th starter, no knebel. Add nelson burnes at 3.4 4.4 puts it more along the lines of a 3.8 era. Thats no Davies, no knebel. Ok so... 3.8 era... need to score 4.9 runs per game. .4 increase. How huge of a difference does cain yelich batting 1-2 bring to this lineup. Thats 793 runs. Teams sandwiching that total last year averaged: 251/325/743 with 2320 total bases. We had: 249/322/751 with 2346 total bases. Strange huh. 60 less runs... same numbers. That... I can not even begin to try to explain. What I can assume is cain 1 instead of a blackhole should help. Maybe it had something to do with leading off pedroia betts and bogaerts or deshields choo gomes over the the 300 obp villar. (They average 350-355)

Ok so to use the Santana example to phillips. The offense was mid pack. High K. Terrible at the top of the order. Lets say there are specific numbers you must reach at starter era/pen era+ defensive range and obp/ops (aka run production) to hit a 90 win expectation. Now adding cain over broxton is a big increase not only at CF defense but leadoff production ks obp etc. Yelich replaces Santana but + defense in LF and #2 batter consistency with lower ks. 1-2 goes from troubled to elite. That's going to impact the entire offenses production. Would Santana be more productive offensively than a phillips/broxton platoon? Offensively yes, defensively no. How little do you need from phillips/broxton to get your projections within the production thresholds you require. The strength at 1-4 could carry the numbers far enough that 5-8 could be very mediocre and still succeed as a whole. Santanas bat could at that point be seen as an unnecessary plus. You could plug in phillips broxton platoon saying all we should need there is 235/310 and 20hr to not revert past positive threshold we just crossed into. If he fails... its enough. If he succeeds... the offense gets special, the defense is special. It's about knowing whats needed... what you project and being confident in it. At that point you push guys into action when you can achieve your goals while expecting a low floor from them. Limiting fail risk. Statistics era. Im sure there's a win total projection on runs per game scored and the actual wins gained from 4.5 runs to 4.7 runs. If Santana moves it even that much but that .2 runs hokds little to no statistical value... whats the point of the .2 runs.

Or when they're about to be a FA. Not when they have 4-5 years of control left. People don't pay up for rentals. They woke up. Knebel would be down to 3.5 or 3 by the time he's dealt dependent on this seasons outlook at the deadline. The last year arby 4 will be pricey. Unless we add an arm Davies isn't available. If we added cobb he'd be down to 3 arby years at the point of trade. The deals are right before arby or arby 2 of 4. 3 years... not 4 or 5. Also on select pieces, not them all.

Our own patriots way... is what I'm getting at. It's not simple. It started highly proactive and due to some rough draft classes became very reactive. Hasn't hemorrhaged yet though so who am I to say. The trade chandler jones collins mankins part is what I'm getting at in that mold. It was cost interactive, depth and scheme/impact based and very proactive. The question of who you trade out, I believe can be shown through metrics and threshold requirements. What does it take to win broken down on the entire 25 plus position contribution requirements etc. I'm certain they have this, so how would this lead to a decision on whom you trade. 1-5 requirements at pitcher. Lets suppose era from your starting staff is required at 4.0 or under for the threshold of what makes you win 90 games. Ok so in this add 2 starters scenerio Davies is on the block immediately. 2018 you got arrieta cobb anderson expecting sub 4 from them all. Arrieta ace (ish) 1or2 year deal gets you back to ace (ish) Nelson 3 years, cobb 4 year, anderson 4 year. 2 years of chacin bridge to Burnes or farm. Woodruff. If you have faith in arrieta/nelson cobb anderson to carry an era sub 4... and it should be 3.6 at worst... you simply need faith chacin woodruff suter AAA depth can cover the 4-5 spots at sub 4.6 and you clear the 4.0 requirement. It makes Davies the overkill because hes 1... not rated over your top 3/4 arms. Has 4 years of control unlike burnes woodruff. He becomes the cycle out option. 2019 nelson anderson cobb... same deal chacin woodruff burnes. In reality if Nelson (2 control) is back, Anderson (3) stays good and cobb (3) is 3.6 or better... Arrieta becomes a flip on his 1 year deal. Side plus... you want to get burnes woodruffs feet wet when they are 4th and 5th guys who require them only to be solid so that they are ready to top the rotation or have shown they can't top the rotation when nelson anderson cobb near the end of their deals. Obviously as it sits now... davies is in the top 3 and can't be moved. 1 add like cobb and a return of nelson makes Davies available in the 2019 offseason. It's a minimalist approach. What is required to win in multiple areas. What talent carries that category what talent can step in and do enough. Requires depth and pieces in place to hit a requirement but no more. Same goes for pen. Knebels into arby 2 after this year. I would not trade him prior to the deadline... if its going bad... or offseason if its going well. But say the threshold is 3.4 era from the pen. Knebel helps that a great deal... so does hader, maybe albers and while people can say maybe 2 will be ready of peralta williams houser lopez diplan we could be replacing knebel and jeffress. All 5 don't need to work. Enough need to be tested to a point where they are trusted. Maybe barnes williams start in the pen this year and by years end are looking to be 7th 8th inning guys. However if you never get the farm into the mlb... you never know if you have a knebel sitting in your farm. Houser williams peralta aren't chumps. They each have 2 60 grade offerings. You look to fill requirements and allow players to move into bigger roles. Once someones displaced, he's prospect fodder. The comment... well prospects don't turn out. Sure plenty fail. Plenty fail because they never get a shot. Plenty succeed. You're not seeking certainties. You are seeking a plethora of possibilities to twist odds your way. 83 wins is not the goal... the team had a TON of warts last year. Black hole lead off man. Disaster pen until late. 4-5 starters who were a downright mess. I'm seeking a deep team with less warts that makes other teams beat you. Win by being tough at every spot. Elite at few. If you havent noticed we are looking at a team that's essentially free... and still wondering if we can add another 15 mil to payroll. Braun is the only dude overpaid and we are near broke. Knebel pitches well for a few years and he's core until his arby goes too high. We aren't keeping a 17 mil closer. We are a turn and burn market. You can window spike and rebuild or get ahead of it. Because one way or another... CLEVELAND... you are going to get run over by cap demands. Fend it off proactively with farm restocking and hard choices... or watch it smash you into a new rebuild. But to be clear as day. Knebel wouldn't be shopped until the deadline if the playoffs are lost... and would be in the 2019 offseason if his value holds. Davies would be shopped if displaced. Cobb makes that maybe 2019 offseason. 2 makes that today.

But I'm not comparing that and my irritation come from being told... nope your wring despite evidence stating the contrary. Please understand how foolish this sounds to me. We traded thorny because were weren't contending... fine. Now we are contending so we will pay knebel into his arby save inflation. Despite the fact that in the NOW we are contending era we added albers logan and jeffress at pennies which is less than knebel before another year of arby where his cap # will spike. With hader peralta williams houser barnes who could all or some step into more prominent roles for next to no cost. I'm not jaded about a prior regime trading stars. You need to in a small market if you want to consistently compete. You need to graduate talent. You need to hit thresholds yearly to stay in the mix. You have to turn over 1 year ahead and handle the farm well or you hit windows that have to go right between rebuilds. Maybe you can marlins a title... maybe you ride the roller coaster and never top out. What I don't want to see is a gm who "trusts" his farm never trusting his young controlled talent and flipping it for short control that makes a tiny imact. We can get glue guys like swarzak walker jeffress for scraps. I loved that. It was genius. But to stay at that level of genius you have to flip out the extras for farm depth and trust your farm at some point. If we rot these 5 promising pen arms, and block woodruff burnes or flip them for a 3 year window. You push for a title and run to a rebuild. Done well you can compete yearly if you are good, i think stearns is, and are proactive... i think he is but im being flat told no. More farm torched for short term adds. Never trusting our talent... never letting it get to a sell high point. This would tick me off.

I see many of those young fringe prospects packaged in deals for upgrades at positions of need. Sure, they will keep some, but I'd bet they aren't going to trade a bunch of MLB assets who are pre-arb to fit them in, unless they no longer fit the roster plan. Got it, farm sucks... puke value for glue guys. 3-4 year window and off to another rebuild... stearns is lying to us.

Speaking in absolutes like that isn't helping your argument. Santana had a good year overall, but was extremely streaky. As were Shaw, Thames and even Arcia. That was the story of the 2017 team. The idea of trading Santana is also a search for more consistency. The question is whether Phillips can provide enough production to justify trading Santana. Denying the truth is ridiculous. How is it not absolute? He was the best bat we had last year. BA OBP SLG OPS all at or a few points off the top. No one else did that. We shopped him prior to yelich. It takes a yelich to get those numbers with better consistency. That's not a win now trade. Thats a HR hitter is going to spike his contract in arby and kill his trade value. Sell high. Knebel will do the same with saves this year.

Lets do this another way... Knebel Hader albers barnes suter are here next year by guarenteed contract. What do you do with peralta williams houser lopez diplan who are already on the 40 man? Anderson Nelson chacin davies woodruff burnes. Even add cobb... you deal away the long control on burnes woodruff to add 1 more top short term arm and run yourself off a cap/farm cliff in 3 years? Or do you lean on the top 3 and trust your long term control to hold down the back end? Do you deal out the short control middle to keep tge farm churning out talent or do you all in and pray 2021 or 2022 doesn't send you off a cliff into rebuild 2.

He was last year. That's not a debate. Could be passed by a healthy Braun, should get passed by Yelich who we didn't have when we shopped him. Could be passed by shaw but no one was ahead of him prior to the yelich trade. Defense yes if you play phillips... you aren't cutting Ks by trading him. The Ks cut came by way of Cain. Cain was target #1 for that reason.

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2. Has a contending team shopped their best bat from the previous season pre arby? Domingo was shopped prior to Yelich. Cain was known since november but landing yelich came after domingo got shopped. If the right offers there and we don't add yelich, phillips is the rf... replace from within. I don't think he's seeking pieces as much as he's seeking statistical "break points." To contend you need era at such, run production as such. Excess above and beyond those marks are unnecessary and up for sale. Back loading the farm will keep the team in contention long term. You build to contend every year and in thise multiple chances a title will come.

To add... they already did it with thorn. He's been very active on both buying out arby and shopping guys early. (Villar Anderson...Domingo Thorny) Next year knebels arby will be as expensive as any reliever he's added and the only one who fits that mold was coaxed by our manager. Even this year when spending on the pen would have made sense he went penny stock albers jeffress logan, traded for penny stock jeffress webb swarzak. A pattern is starting to gain relevance.

Nelson anderson cobb davies burnes woodruff chacin is not a surplus? Ignoring Ortiz Ponce and other farm talent its a surplus. Knebel Hader albers peralta williams houser jeffress barnes lopez suter is not a surplus? You have 2 choices... all in and look at very likely rebuild in 2022 Turn over a few pieces that can get big assets and replace from within. They say they want to contend consistently. That's option 2.

Yeah and that's the prime time to trade them out because of that. I think we are getting very close to the proper time to sell davies and knebel.

Davies hits arby soon. Davies is a boras client. Thus no arby buyout extension coming. It would be a deal to add to the farm.

Only way I see 2 is if they got a big trade in place for Davies. Anderson nelson cobb/lynn woodruff burnes and Chacin would be ready by 2019. Arrieta would be the ace to make nelson coming back a late season add Cobb would be the davies replacement. Davies would be expendable immediately. Anderson Chacin/woodruff round out the other 3 to 2 later on. (Nelson) Mark would really have to want to push payroll these next 1-2 years to sign arrieta.

I don't see how the 2 are related. Santana is going too start as much as usual, Braun is a part-time player now. I'd guess Aguilar gets traded by the end of camp. They are related because braun is going to play. But not playing much 1st would decrease the usage of Santana Yelich and Cain to increase the usage of Aguilar. That's assinine. Aguilar holds next to zero trade value. Santana hopefully carries a good deal. If I was lying to give an appearance I'd lie to make it clear santanas is in thr plans to play every day. Braun should not be playing 60 games in the OF with a guy like aguilar seeing 70 games at 1st if at all possible and as soon as we said we are going with an 8 man pen, there's next to no way aguilar fits on this roster. Braun Perez need to play 1st in that scenerio. C Sogard (for 2b/ss depth) the non starter at 1b (braun or thames) and someone who can play 1st and 3rd and hopefully some OF, and platoon rhb 2b wouldn't hurt.. perez is that guy.

And could be what? A 4.8 garza type?

We are concerned with Aguilar AB instead of Santana AB?

He had a follow up on the elbow... not sure. Tj then ulnar nerve transportation. So tj then what fulmer had last year.

I'll side with talent that hasn't had a chance to suck over guys who have clearly sucked.

Lol believe me, if that Braun to the dodgers for Kemp and prospects was a real thing I'd be all over it. The "problem" though is that there are 2 problems, not only does Braun need to move to 1b... but Santana can only play DH at an elite level. I'd imagine the most frustrating thing for a gm would be to have talent that doesn't fit your vision, but also isn't commanding proper trade value. 3 team trade Braun to lad Santana sogard lux to kc Merrifield white kemp to mke Pay all of Kemps salary and send him to an AL team to dh for a ticket. Cain Yelich Thames/Aguilar Shaw Whit phillips/broxton C arcia

Could've kept/signed anyone with a higher ceiling than Drake. Well the good news is that the only guy who we should roster on the 25 going into the season who pitched today was one of the very few who looked good. I hope we jump out trusting our youth. Drake Yo Guerra Miley retred stuff could get frustrating. We have 3 starters and 6 bp locked in. The other 4 should be woodruff suter wilkerson and williams.

It doesn't make sense to keep Braun in the OF any way you slice it. Defensively yelich cain phillips broxton is the way you'd want it to shake out. Sliding yelich to cf or rf takes away 2 gold glove OF. Trading Santana still makes the most sense but DH smoke is out there and it makes you wonder where its at. Even with DH, Braun to 1b makes sense. Santana would be the dh. Cain yelich braun/thames shaw santana (dh) leaves phillips/broxton arcia C villar. The question really comes down to what's more important? Do you stash broxton phillips and use Santana less for 1 year because having a DH next year would allow for a near perfect balance already inplace. Or do you worry about the year ahead of you knowing you likely wont get the price you feel you deserve on Santana. People have talked about pitchers holding out because all it takes is 1 injury change the market. We could be doing the same with Santana. We could be comfortable sitting on a 6 player talent glut while we wait for the right offer or a change in the format. We go into this year with phillips broxton in AAA. We watch braun and santana play about 100 games and people wonder what the heck stearns is doing... then DH comes to NL and he looks brilliant for holding assets through 2018. I still see no way Braun doesnt transition to 1st. Theyve said yelich will mostly play in LF. Brauns not playing RF.

Mejia showcasing himself to the brewers ;-)