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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    Like I said 5 years is a long time so who knows but not a landslide by any measure. Williams is a .700 OPS 3B in AAA he will have to show significant improvement before even being considered for the major league roster. But equally important with Turang and Chourio with years of control remaining, Pratt and Lara signed longterm and Made hot on his heels there is no regular playing time in Milwaukee in the foreseeable future at 2B, SS, and LF, CF. Certainly not a situation or a statistical profile to date that makes one say his arrow is pointing up. Sproat is the same pitcher he was with the Mets, big arm but lacks command of the fastball and consistency of his secondary pitches. He’s pitching in the Brewers rotation more because he’s been fully healthy than anything else. Could he still figure it out, absolutely; but with an era of nearly 6, a FIP of 5.52 and ERA+ 71 and a HardH% against of 43.3% suggests he probably should be in AAA.
  2. Jopal78
    The second part is the overall talent level flowing into professional baseball will improve as college teams are filled with better players. There probably will be an increased talent in the independent leagues too which would warrant more MLB scouting in those circuits. no matter how they alter the system if someone’s a tremendous amateur baseball player they’ll have a shot to play pro ball.
  3. Jopal78
    Right, but tying draft eligibility to college, gives the teams more leverage over amateur players and more cost controls which is the whole point. (The owners are probably going to have to concede on service time before free agency, so they’re trying to balance that by tamping down amateur talent acquisition costs which does not directly affect current MLBPA members) Since it is a low priority fight for the union it is probably one area where they quickly find an agreement.
  4. Jopal78
    Every team goes into the draft with a fixed total amount of money to spend as bonuses on draftees. So for example, you draft a college player in the first round where the slotted bonus for the pick is $3M knowing going into the draft said player will sign for say $2M which saves $1M of your total draft pool for later use. Then, you draft Cooper Pratt out of high school with a pick that has a slot value of $500k. You also know going in he has a college commitment and is somewhat serious about it, so you offer Pratt $1.5M instead of the slot $500K to dissuade him from honoring his college commitment and turning pro. There are exceptions and nuance but that’s the general concept,
  5. Jopal78
    I assume any high school player skilled enough to be drafted by MLB, would also have a free ride to College for baseball so the debt thing really isn’t an issue. But you hit on the point: the owners want cost certainty they do not want to have to negotiate significantly over slot for high school players, and have the high school player hold out until the 11th hour. Frankly the MLB Players Association does not represent high school kids or college players, so draft eligibility is probably at the bottom of their list of priorities. Neither side cares what’s best for “the kid” it’s a fight over money.
  6. Jopal78
    It’s control. Currently, if a high school player gets drafted but doesn’t like the slot money or the organization; he can tell the team he’s going to honor his college commitment and re-enter the draft the next year. The new CBA would eliminate that loophole by making college a prerequisite to being drafted
  7. Jopal78
    The Japanese baseball pipeline is much more controlled than MLBs. Players in Japan, who turn pro are then controlled by their team for up to nine years. The posting fee is to get the team who controls a player’s rights to relinquish them early. MLB doesn’t have the ability to alter that. In addition to unforeseen loopholes with procurement of 16-17 year old Latin players, the current International system rewards information and relationships over payroll. An international draft would move things away from the teams that scout the players best and rewards those who are simply lucky enough to have a top pick. After finding 2 consensus #1 prospects in Latin America (Chourio/Made) in less than 5 years, any Brewer fan should be dead set against an international draft.
  8. Jopal78
  9. Jopal78
    Interestingly, the immediate impact of the Peralta trade for both clubs is negligible. Myers and Sproat have negative WARs, Peralta is 0.1 and Williams has yet to play in the majors. 5 years is a long time, but anyone would be hard pressed to say the arrow is pointing up on either Sproat or Williams right now too.
  10. Jopal78
    The point is an international draft is not going to work. There is no way to bind international players. MLB teams can agree to do whatever they want in terms of procurement of those players, and yes, the major leagues are the highest paid league around, but if their agreement amongst themselves doesn’t bind the players, it’s in the players best interest and those who come after them to find a way to exploit it. It’s not a difficult concept to understand.
  11. Jopal78
    Replace the bottom three hitters in the lineup with guys who can put up at least a .699 OPS? when you’re pitching and defense team, you’re gonna lose some tight ones when the pitching lets you down.
  12. Jopal78
    If you want to be 100% literal, sure you are right. But 95% of those players aren’t going to be selected in an international draft anyways. What I’m talking about (and I know you know despite wanting to be literal) are the premier international players. They either have options besides America (which is leverage) or they know they’re going to get drafted with slot money so they have the ability to tell certain organizations not to draft them (also leverage). Its not a video game, people’s jobs with an organization are on the line and no organization is going to waste a top pick calling an international players bluff, or select a player who has stated they don’t want to be there
  13. Jopal78
    Interesting you mention it; MLB is proposing to eliminate American High Schoolers from being drafted which will eliminate the leverage those kids have.
  14. Jopal78
    He’s James Mouton with marginally better slug (less than 100 PAs difference) yet Mouton was a nobody and bounced around to 4 different clubs while Sal starts most nights.
  15. Jopal78
    It’s unbelievable he and Perkins are both in the major league roster. One should be DFA’d and the other optioned to AAA and it’s making less of a difference which one gets what.
  16. Jopal78
    Depends, there won’t be many worth the slotted pick if the current financial format continues with an international pool. Yet the next Soto or Acuna would know they’re going to get paid when eventually drafted and would hold all the leverage to choose where they go by threatening to sign only if drafted by certain teams.
  17. Jopal78
    An International Draft is worthless. The owners can’t compel foreign players to come to America so draftees would have all the leverage. If the money or organization isn’t right, the foreign player can simply refuse to sign, and no team is going to waste a draft pick for a player. They are uncertain of if they can get in their organization (Similar but different Herb Kohl went all the way to China to talk Yi Jinlian into agreeing to play for the Bucks after being drafted). Further, Japanese teams control players for 8-9 seasons which is why there’s the posting system. MLB can agree to whatever they want with their players but NPB does not have to abide by it.
  18. Jopal78
    12 weeks is the end of the baseball season for 2026. I’m sure he’ll work out generally but amping up without major league facilities isn’t likely to happen (certainly not if there’s a lock out). So he’ll be starting from square 1 in essence in April 2027.
  19. Jopal78
    Historically it seems Wheeler is the exception and not the rule. We probably won’t see Priester until April of 2028 though. Tough break for the guy, after looking like a front of the rotation horse, his career is suddenly at a crossroads
  20. Jopal78
    First of all, the Brewers can sign any player they want if they’re willing to pay top dollar. The fans here who want players resigned never say they want them resigned at market rate. The players play for money, and no sense of loyalty is likely to mean they leave millions of dollars on the table. Second and more on topic, any increase in revenue is great for us fans who consume the vast majority of the games on TV, radio or streaming. It likely won’t translate into higher payrolls, but it does help pay Latin Scouts, fund the Academies, keep up the tech arms race and analytics department. All of which have contributed to what the Brewers are today.
  21. Jopal78
    They won’t fire Counsell this season regardless. He has 2 years left and managers usually aren’t left as lame ducks, and there’s little to no chance he gets extended, so he probably would be on the hot seat in 2027. The injuries to pitchers are tough but I wonder if the Cubs would’ve been better off fortifying their rotation than signing Bregman especially when they had a young player with promise at 3B already.
  22. Jopal78
    That’s the thing about metrics. There is one to support any point someone wants to make. Escobar got a multi-year deal after leaving Milwaukee as a free agent. Santana signed a 1 year deal with Minnesota as camp opened the next season and Canha was traded to Detroit in a salary dump
  23. Jopal78
    You’re right, although I suppose I should have framed it as the Brewers don’t shop for premium talent, impact players, difference makers, etc. at the deadline, rather they look for role players and depth pieces. In fact, both Canha and Santana were approximately league average bats in 2023 depending on the metric you use. Escobar, by contrast, played in the All-Star game in 2021 and was amongst the top 5-6 in homers by MLB 3B when traded.
  24. Jopal78
    They’ll always have tailgating it will just be in a specific area and first come first served. The Packers have eliminated gobs and gobs of parking/tailgating over the last 10-15 years.
  25. Jopal78
    The last regular the Brewers traded for at the deadline was Eduardo Escobar all the way back in 2021. Arnold hasn’t done it as GM. Thus I assume this year will be no different and they’ll shop for bullpen arms, and bench players. Maybe a back of the rotation starting pitcher like Montas if they can get one by absorbing payroll on an expiring deal.
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