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long ball

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Everything posted by long ball

  1. long ball
    Good hitter, but grades out as a pretty poor defender. Maybe the Brewers aggressive positioning helps that. I don't think he'd be atop the list of targets, but if he's signed late in the offseason as the primary second basemen or utility infielder for 2019 that's reasonable.
  2. long ball
    From my position as arm chair GM, I think upgrading the super utility role on this team is important. Continuing to give Perez 350-400 PAs a season is a killer when he doesn't bring elite defense to any of the position he plays. Look at Taylor and Hernandez for the Dodgers. Gonzalez for the Astros. Zobrist and Happ for the Cubs. Even Culberson for the Braves. All of those playoff teams had above average hitters as their super sub guy(s). If the Brewers are going to continue to trot out below average hitters at SS and C on a daily basis they can't really afford to keep giving a hitter as bad as Perez 350+ PA a year.
  3. long ball
    Jamie Garcia and Jorge De La Rosa could fit the multi inning role. Happ, CC, Holland, Brett Anderson, pomeranz all probably profile more in the starter role. Keuchel, Corbin, And Ryu are in the never gonna happen pool.
  4. long ball
    I don't really know what a good comp for a Donaldson deal would be from the 2017 season. Moustakas was healthy and younger, but not as good as Donaldson. 1 year $6.5m Frazier was healthy and younger, but not as good. 2 years $17m Walker was healthy and younger, but not as good. 1 year $4m in 2016/17 offseason Justin Turner got 4 years $64m. He was younger and healthier at the time, but might be closest in terms of impact. The year before that Asdrubal Cabrera got 3 years $25m. Different position, but similar hitter Cespedes got 3/75 but was younger and healthier. Best I could guess is the AAV will be similar to Turner at $16m/yr. Number of years will be the big question. The fact that the Blue Jays were going to be unwilling to give him a QO probably means he'll sign for less than a QO.
  5. long ball
    If the trade Davies and Anderson that's a huge hit to the pitching depth and would need to be replaced by either trade or free agency. You're not going to get a pitcher as good as Davies in free agency for what Davies will cost in arbitration. I think it makes sense to move Anderson if they can get a decent return, but I can't see moving both. If they moved both they're down to Chacin and Guerra as your established MLB starters. Then counting on Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff to take a step forward and a healthy bounce back season from Nelson.
  6. long ball
    That bat flip is legendary.
  7. long ball
    Marwin Gonzalez would be an interesting name to keep an eye On. Might get a similar deal.
  8. long ball
    Thames hasn't handled part time duty very well. I think he's gotta go. I hate to say it because he's a good dude and I've enjoyed watching him, but that 2 1b thing really limits our flexibility in a bad way and is only worth it if both mash. I'm fine if they trade Thames, but you're going to have to find a team to take on most of the money without giving anything back in return. Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison are all available on the FA market and offer basically the same thing Thames offers for ~ the same price on a 1 year commitment.
  9. long ball
    I could see them doing something creative with the pitching staff, but over the course of the season it will have to be somewhat structured like what the Rays did with the opener where they knew who was the opener and who was the bulk guy. Traditional starters: Chacin and Davies. They go every 5th day. Piggyback/extended out-getters: Woodruff, Guerra, Burnes, Anderson, Nelson, Peralta. Pitch 1-2x through the order, but rarely come in for single innings. Available on 2-3 days rest depending on the player. Short relievers: Knebel, JJ, Hader, Williams/Barnes/Albers/Houser/Depth piece. The roles can be flexible and change as the season goes on and players develop. I don't know if the Brewers will get this creative, but with the depth of options they have before making any off season moves they can afford to be creative. Take those middle to back end rotation prospects and elevate their skills by only asking them to get 6-12 outs.
  10. long ball
    I agree that we're looking at ~$110mil before Moustakas, Soria, ans Schoop decisions are made. (I don't think any will be back) Anderson could be moved, but they would need to get something worthwhile, because he really is on a pretty team friendly deal. Thames would basically need to be given away if a team takes on his salary. There are freely available first basemen on the free agent market and we saw how those guys did in free agency last season (hint: not well). I think he's part of a softish platoon with Aguilar at first going into next season.
  11. long ball
    Updated predictions for me. I would buy out Moustakas, Lyles, and Soria.
  12. long ball
    I agree re: Moustakas. He's fine. he's about an average player. Not a guy they need to be in a rush to sign this off season and could potentially revisit a reunion depending on where they're at heading into spring training. The best part about Moose was that he wasn't villar/perez/sogard/saladino/miller/orf or whatever else they were trotting out at 2b.
  13. long ball
    I’d be very interested in Donaldson. I agree with your assessment of needing some right handed hitting on the infield. I don’t know what he will end up getting in free agency. He’s old and coming off an injury. He was pretty effective when healthy this season. If it’s a one or two year deal I’d be very interested. Beyond that I’d pass.
  14. long ball
    Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP. IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF? I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019. I totally agree that first base isn't the mot important position of opportunity. I think a Thames/Aguilar/Braun group provides sufficient coverage there. Second or third base seems to be the easiest way to upgrade the offense. (I'm not in favor of just having a place holder at 2b for 2 months hoping Hiura can make the transition flawlessly by June, but he's pretty good insurance). Catcher- this is going to be admittedly tough to do. I mean there's basically competing with every other MLB team for Grandal or Ramos or paying a huge prospect package for Realmuto. SS would also be pretty darn tough to upgrade since there just aren't that many good SS who will be available. If they get 2017 Arcia that's a pretty good player.
  15. long ball
    If 17-18 taught us anything it should be that they'll need ~10 SP to get through the season and that the opening day rotation doesn't really mean anything when it comes to the rotation in September/October. One concern is they'll need some minor league arms to take a step forward to fill those roles of Houser, Lopez, and Woodruff who sorta bounced back and forth between the minors and majors. Barnes and Williams still have options. Woodruff maybe pitched himself into a full time big league pitcher. Houser is out of options.
  16. long ball
    I question whether it's really important to sink in a lot of $$ or prospect capital into first base. Just look at the first baseman of the playoff teams: Astros: Gurriel- Cuban FA signed for ~$10m/yr Red Sox: Steve Pearce/Mitch Moreland platoon. Couple of cheap journeyman types. Yankees: Bird/Walker/Voit pretty much a dumpster fire all year until they got lighting in a bottle with Voit Indians: Yonder Alonso is just a cheap veteran A's: Matt Olson is a solid young player, but never really a top prospect Braves: Freeman is a legit franchise cornerstone type player Cubs: Rizzo is also a legit franchise cornerstone type player Brewers: Aguilar was a scrap heap pick up and Thames was a KBO signing for relatively cheap Rockies: Ian Desmond is a highly paid veteran who is pretty worthless and they just stuck him at first base Dodgers: Bellinger was a legit top prospect + Freese came in late as a cheap platoon bat. So there are 2 legit awesome first basemen on this list while the most are sort of cheap young guys or bargain bin shopping. Then when you look at first basemen signed to big contracts they've basically crippled team payrolls: Hosmer, Pujols, Votto, Cabrera. Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.
  17. long ball
    I sorta see it being along the lines of hoping to get 5 innings combined from Gio and Woodruff and then assessing where you're at from there. Ideally you have Knebel, Hader, Soria, and Burnes to figure out a way to hold a lead for the final 4 innings. I'd be ok with JJ getting a night off.
  18. long ball
    Right, and as soon as he does that...he won't have as many PH options later for if we are winning and Hader comes in for 2 innings to mow down lefty after lefty. Exactly. The Dodgers are pretty much the perfect team to "bullpen" against. Neutralize part of what makes their offense so good by either eliminating that platoon advantage or eliminate their depth early in games.
  19. long ball
    Counsell is totally going to piggyback Gio and Miley with Woodruff and Guerra/Peralta/Davies. Force Roberts to either pinch hit in the 4th innings or let Taylor/Kemp/Freese face the RHP and keep Joc, Puig, and Muncy on the bench.
  20. long ball
    I honestly think a lot of it is just semantics. You don't let one of your executives interview for a job unless it's a promotion. There isn't really a promotion from POBO other than owner.
  21. long ball
    If I'm Mark Attanasio I'm promoting Stearns to Head of Baseball Ops and Arnold to GM. I think Stearns and his staff have earned it and it'd be smart to keep them around for as long as possible.
  22. long ball
    I looked at the previous meetings yesterday too. Interesting tidbit i found was Hader, Soria, Knebel, JJ, and Burnes combined to pitch 13.1 innings giving up 3 runs vs the Dodgers. Both the Dodgers and Brewers played extremely well down the stretch. While it's fun to look at, I wouldn't get too bogged down in the head to head matchups from earlier this season.
  23. long ball
    Mike Petriello is really doing yeoman's work from a national perspective when it comes to the Brewers coverage. It started with his recap of the Brewers trade deadline and it's really culminating with his work for the NLCS. If you haven't yet, I'd encourage everyone to check out his work at mlb.com, statcast podcast, and twitter. https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-trades-that-turned-the-team-around/c-297404328 https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-pitching-plan-against-dodgers-in-nlcs/c-297498996
  24. long ball
    The Brewers aren't committed to Schoop and his salary. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to offer arbitration if you're just going to turn around and trade him for an equally high salary gamble. The Brewers can find a project starting pitcher for a lot less than $9mil that Gray is projected to earn in arbitration.
  25. long ball
    I think it's funny how all of the analysts on TV and radio keep acting like the Brewers are asking for 6-7 innings out of their bullpen every day. Then at the same time they're ripping Boone for not pulling Sabathia and Sevi earlier. I know the Yankees lost and they were playing the Red Sox, but they got fewer innings out of their rotation than the Brewers did and the Yankees played an extra game.
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