OldHeidelberg
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Everything posted by OldHeidelberg
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I think the rankings this week should tell us where the committee is, if they continue to leave us behind noncontenders like PSU, FL, and AL we have no shot as they are sending a message that any large jump is impossible. If the Badgers are 8 or even 7 there will at least be debate if the Badgers win and a couple of other games fall our way. They did just beat a top ten team on the road but I expect as usual now that the Badgers beat them they must suck so we will end up like #10. I also think we will get shafted by the Rose Bowl if we lose.
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It does look pretty bleak if you can't find a way for the Badgers to get in over Ohio State and that does seem like a long shot. But again just 2 years ago a 2 loss OSU jumped unbeaten UW after beating them by 6 points in the BTCG. I think they were ranked 4 and 6 which is a lot different then say 8 and 1 but the Badgers would be wise to remind everyone of that this week. I think this is a scenario the committee hasn't faced yet but we still need an LSU and Oregon win to even make it a debate. Does the committee weigh in on this stuff when they release the rankings? OSU is just so good it's tough to see them left out, we better blow them out. Maybe they have a let down after 2 big games and feeling like they are in already. A big ten championship and rose bowl trip would be just fine with me.
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There is still a shot that there will be 4 1 or no loss power 5 champs not from the Big 10 so OSU isn't in yet even if you think the Badgers can't hop them. But another way to look at it is if the Badgers win there is a fair chance them and the Buckeys will be the 4th and 5th teams. When you have a head to head matchup between your 4 and 5 teams just 12 hours before it has to mean something, right?
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I still they'll need help elsewhere, but if you're of the belief that the Badgers would still legitimately have playoff aspirations with a win next week, this is probably helpful. Removes the temptation for the committee to take a 1 loss non conference champ Alabama team which I definitely think was a real possibility. Yep Badgers have an outside shot going into next week. Unless something crazy happens tonight(LSU losing would be cool, Oklahama too) we need at least two other games to go our way next week.
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And Bama goes down, not sure we needed as the close game alone was bad news for Alabama. Had a blast watching the Badgers dominate, felt like a playoff game, I was pretty nervous until we were up 21.
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Seems like a toss up but I bet we have a blow out one way or the other today. Someone will get some turnovers and go up big early. I don't like the matchup of the Badgers Pass d against the Gophers passing game so hopefully this is one of those 5 sack days. Still nice have a play in game at all. Thanks again Iowa! Go Badgers!
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I think Minnesota could factor in if they lose Saturday as well although maybe a long shot. I think the Rose Bowl gets their choice once the champ is in the CFP so a lot in this case may be who travels well and who will provide highest TV ratings. That may rule out Gophers although their fanbase may travel better having not been there for 50 years of whatever it is. Badger fans may still be burned out from the 3 straight losses although they still will show up in droves I am sure. Penn State may be the biggest TV ratings and that probably is the difference unfortunately.
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I am sort of bummed they traded Davies but seems like they got value for him and this was probably a good offseason to move him. I am not still mad about the Grisham error, heck I forgot about it but clearly remember Hader blowing the game, but I think he was overhyped a bit as a prospect last season so might be a sell high move as well. At any rate nice to see the offseason get rolling, should be an interesting couple of months.
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I think Bama is probably not going to make it. I put them losing in my not going to happen scenario for the Badgers only because I was looking for the sure path but I wonder what the committee would do with a solid 2 win champion and 1 win Alabama for the 4th spot. I know there is argument that we all know Alabama is one of the 4 best teams but if you have a weak schedule you should have to win your tough game or your conference title. I didn't like it when OSu got in over Penn State or when Bama got in over OSU. Why should not making your conference title game be an advantage? Maybe they just think using losses is the less controversial way of making the tough choice but playing the extra tough game should be weighted more heavily than it has been IMO. Just remembered that unbeaten Wisconsin got hopped by 1 loss idle Alabama and 2 loss Ohio State by losing their title game by 6 points a couple of years ago. If they were penalized for a weak schedule why shouldn't Bama be eliminated right now?
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IF Badgers win out it would take: Mich beats OSU Auburn beats Bama LSU beats Georgia Oregon beats Utah There are other paths but that is the cleanest scenario I can come up with. I think UW gets in over Oregon in this scenario due to finishing with consecutive wins over top 10 teams and coming from the stronger conference. All other 2 loss contenders get eliminated for not winning their conference. A 2 win team will get in eventually but I don't think it will be this year, I doubt Ohio State loses and Oklahoma will probably manage to win out too.
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538 now has Badgers at 50% to make playoffs if they win out after the Oregon loss. If OSU loses to Michigan next week it only goes to 54% so it doesn't seem like they are in agreement with me about that needing to happen. Like I said earlier I wonder how much of a chance they give them to jump an undefeated Ohio State if they beat them, I feel like that is close to zero. Edit: If you select OSU beating Michigan and UW winning out Badgers are 48% and OSU is 30%, that doesn't seem right to me. I tuned into the 4th quarter of the Oregon game after I saw they were down 14 in the 4th. I don't know what was going on earlier but the Ducks were scoring TD's in about 3 plays and 60 seconds for the rest of the game. Another 5 minutes and I think they overrun ASU, the late long TD by the devils was unlikely and much needed. Too bad Georgia and Oklahoma pulled close games out but one big upset was about the best that we could hope for.
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The defense is really on their heels, hopefully JimL can adjust here.
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That would give the Badgers their best resume and may be the only way they jump a 1 loss Bama but Ohio State is likely already in then which means 3 spots are taken and the PAC12 is a good bet for a 1 loss champ as well. A top 5ish PSU would be a pretty good win. OSU looks unbeatable so far but just fumbled going into the end zone.
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I think I will be rooting for 19 point dog PSU today. The best of our slim CFP hopes is being the only real candidate coming out of the Big Ten and that really requires OSU losing in Michigan next week regardless of today's outcome. Plus PSU is likely an easier opponent in the BTCG and there are better Rose Bowl prospects with that scenario as well. One of the Arizona teams winning tonight would be big as well but those are similar long shots. Going by the lines the only close matchup today for CFP contendors would be Texas at Baylor but not sure Baylor needs to lose to help the Badgers.
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Game 11: Packers @ 49ers - Sunday, November 24th, 7:20PM
OldHeidelberg replied to homer's topic in Other Sports
Tough to overstate how big of a win this would be. With 4 of the last 5 against bad teams it would make a clear path to the division title and playoff bye with 13 wins. I am not sure what to expect, hopefully the coaches spent the week off installing some changes on defense as the wheels have been coming off there. Seems like a game we should win coming off a bye. -
Vikes down 17-0 to Broncos, this would be a big blow to their division hopes.
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Bama is actually in a similar position as the Badgers in that they are going to hope to be competing with a 2 loss conference champion for the 4th spot. I would rather be in their spot right now but they can't help themselves much anymore and losing their star QB could work against them. The basketball committee takes key injuries into consideration.
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Ohio State definitely still has work to do, maybe you feel there is no way they lose to Michigan but I won't discount that happening in a rivalry game like that one. It's still early in the CFP to read too much into how much they value conference championships, the only thing they have been consistent on is a 2 loss team won't jump a 1 loss team if they are comparable. I do agree 33% seems high, too many variables. I mean it's tough to see without OSU beating PSU and losing to UM and what are the odds of that alone? Maybe they think a 2 loss Bucky beating an unbeaten OSU in the title game has a 20% chance of jumping them or something, I guess that is a scenario we haven't seen yet in CFP?
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I would rather win the Big Ten Champ than the Rose Bowl but either would make a great season. Just because it's what I do on Sunday mornings like this one I looked around to see what it would take for a 2 loss Badger team to get in the CFP this year. At first it looks not so bad, just need LSU to win out and Auburn to beat a Tua less Bama to eliminate a 2nd team from the SEC. Then OSU beats PSU and loses to Michigan(they are due?). It gets a lot tougher to eliminate one of the Big12 or PAC though, the PAC is getting a team in unless Oregon State can upset Oregon and Oregon turns around and beats Utah. Not likely. In the Big12 OU plays ranked OSU and Baylor plays ranked Texas so the chances are OK that someone comes into the Championship game with 2 losses, especially Baylor. Even outside of the Badgers own games that's 6 or 7 games that have to go our way and at least a couple would be upsets. But if Bama and Ohio State lose I could see Bucky going into championship weekend with an outside shot sort of like a few years ago when we lost to Penn state.
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That was also a ridiculously stupid hit after the play on 4th down if that's who they called it on. He could have cost his team a turnover on downs and potentially 7 points. Yeah they got a break that the refs called it after the play was over, the WR really sold it though.
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Absolutely. Whether we get blown out again by OSU or not it would be fun if the axe game is for a spot in the B10 Championship game and not just bragging rights. Yep with the CFP out the Big Ten title is all we got left. I don't care much about bowl games anymore other than the Rose Bowl.
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I guess I don't see it as that much different than repeated haymakers to an exposed head, you can kill someone doing that too. There have been plenty of viscous brawls in sports. Go check out the Minnesota- Ohio State basketball game in the 70's. Guys got kicked out of school for that but even back then there was controversy that Dave Winfield got off easy. Don't get me wrong, I think he should be at least out for the season, I just think the NFL will find a way to make it 6 reduced to 4. We will see, I did hear on the radio that there was a Miami player swinging his helmet around against FSU a few years ago.
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Yep, call me cynical but I don't see the NFL actually giving a season ending suspension for a fight. They are too afraid of setting a precedent and then looking bad when they don't hand it down on one of their star QB's or an equivalent player. I can only remember Suh stomping on a packer and Charles Martin, had anyone ever really been suspended long term for a fight or cheap shot?
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Here are the head to head matchups: GB @ SF SF @ NO MN @ SEA GB @ MN SF @ SEA I would say NO is a pretty solid bet to take one of the bye spots. After that it is wide open, nice to be a part of it again.
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It appears you are right on the Atlanta spread, I guess the fact that a #6 at a #1 seed was nearly a pick em at kickoff makes me remember them as favorites. I also tend to factor in the 3 point home field advantage when looking at spreads too so maybe remember it as the Packers being considered the better team going in.